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Kinder Morgan Energy Partners Message Board

dmagman 264 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 23, 2015 11:27 AM Member since: Apr 30, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Roy Raymond

    by jaymckenzie1 Jul 23, 2015 9:24 AM
    dmagman dmagman Jul 23, 2015 11:27 AM Flag

    jay - the cost of their compound is not the only negative sentiment - in fact, it is not the real negative sentiment. I would be negative on AXON, even if they had paid 100 musd for the compound. I've been following the small-biotech area for a while and two biggest problems I see with AXON are valuation and the lack of pipeline (maybe it is one issue - valuation based on lack of pipeline). I have seen many biotechs with valuations of just a few hundred million, who had multiple compounds entering, or in, clinical development. Bringing a drug to market is a very risky process, and the odds are against any given compound. For a company with one compound, even in a potentially very lucrative area like AD, to be valued where AXON is, seems crazy to me. Other factors (cost of the compound, GSK stopping development, the post-hoc analyses), to me, just add to the risks for this compound, specifically. I would be interested in AXON is they would use some of their IPO proceeds to pursue other potential clinical candidates and build a pipeline.

  • Reply to

    Looks like dead money to me. No thanx.

    by djangosblues Jul 22, 2015 12:58 PM
    dmagman dmagman Jul 22, 2015 1:07 PM Flag

    sarcasm...I like that

  • dmagman dmagman Jul 22, 2015 1:02 PM Flag

    Jay, I am one of those shorts. I am long a number of small biotech stocks, and have never before shorted a stock (unless you count selling covered calls). But, I shorted AXON because the valuation is way too high for a company with just one compound, especially one that big pharma (GSK) has already tested and decided not to pursue.
    While it is always nice to see statistically significant Phase 2 data for a compound, investors should be aware that the 'completers analysis' presented in today's PR was not the primary analysis planned in the protocol. The primary analysis was to be at Week 24, for the ITT population, and included only one of the two variables they presented today (as well as a second one that they did not present). This may seem like a minor distinction, but making decisions based on post hoc analyses is very risky, and is less likely to predict results in future studies, than decision based on primary analyses. Another major risk is based on their discussion with FDA, as to what the FDA will require for approval. The FDA will not simply accept choosing the primary Phase 3 variables, based on what was statistically significant in Phase 2. If I were long, I would want to know what the FDA guidance was/is.

  • Reply to

    Type 1 Error

    by rmnicrds Jul 22, 2015 12:27 PM
    dmagman dmagman Jul 22, 2015 12:33 PM Flag

    I hope they address, or are asked, about regulatory interactions. They previously had stated that they intended to discuss with FDA, what would be required for approval. It would be very helpful to know what the FDA guidance is.

  • dmagman dmagman Jul 22, 2015 11:15 AM Flag

    The studies were done by GSK, not AXON. AXON only bought the compound from GSK in December, 2014, with plans to discuss their own study with FDA in the first half of 2015. I have done my own research. AXON HAS NOT DONE A STUDY. GSK conducted 4 Phase 2 studies, including the add-on therapy study with 684 patients. GSK completed that study in 2011. Hows that for a deep dive?

  • dmagman dmagman Jul 22, 2015 10:52 AM Flag

    How many patients were in the study?

  • dmagman dmagman Jul 22, 2015 10:21 AM Flag

    Thanks for clarifying, dollar. Since you seem to be "in the know", I was wondering if you could fill in some gaps for me regarding this study that AXON has performed. When did the study start? When was the study completed? What data do you believe they will present today? From what I had read previously, I thought the answers were: it hasn't started, (therefore) it hasn't completed, there are no data.

  • dmagman dmagman Jul 21, 2015 1:06 PM Flag

    I'm really looking forward to their discussion of their portfolio of products.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • dmagman dmagman Jul 20, 2015 1:06 PM Flag

    So, the logic goes like this:

    This compound is ineffective
    The FDA is making it easier to approve Alzheimer's drugs
    Lets continue development of this ineffective compound

    THINK!!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • dmagman dmagman Jul 16, 2015 11:41 AM Flag

    If you go to the gsk website, and drill down to INVESTORS and then DIVIDEND CALENDAR, it provides the dividend-related dates for the next 2 dividends (those to be paid Oct 1 and Jan 14, 2016). The ADR x-div date for the Oct dividend is August 12.

  • Reply to

    Buy AVXL, sell AXON, AVXL soaring

    by bourbon_on_my_cornflakes Jun 12, 2015 3:58 PM
    dmagman dmagman Jul 14, 2015 3:46 PM Flag

    But, I shorted AXON. So, which is a better investment: short AXON or long AVXL???

  • dmagman dmagman Jul 13, 2015 2:37 PM Flag

    Rez - Unfortunately (I guess?!) I am one of the sellers of the Jul calls, at $10/shr. Despite that, I have no intention of bashing the stock. I have been long NVAX since April, 2014, when I bought in at $4.12 a share. I have been selling covered calls since then. I sold the July CC in April, when the stock was around $8.25. At this point, I fully expect to have these shares called from me, at a nice profit (especially including the previous collected premiums on the CCs). This CC is one-quarter of my total long position. So, even with losing these shares (and having missed out an about a $2 gain from $10 to $12 on them), I remain a happy camper and bullish on the future of NVAX.

  • Reply to

    I hate this stock -- it keeps going up!

    by entologiistrod Jul 9, 2015 6:56 PM
    dmagman dmagman Jul 13, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    lol (humor is often difficult to convey in words, based on some of the responses)

  • Reply to

    Crackerbarrel Lunch Time

    by efmutton Jul 2, 2015 12:59 PM
    dmagman dmagman Jul 13, 2015 11:08 AM Flag

    I don't understand the popularity of soccer, but there is no doubt about its (global, at least) popularity. While I like the idea of buying into companies that I am a consumer of, identifying companies with a sustainable product, that I am not a consumer of, can still be very profitable!

  • Reply to

    Questions for board

    by rocketjock1 Jul 12, 2015 9:44 PM
    dmagman dmagman Jul 13, 2015 10:32 AM Flag

    I don't know the answers to your specific questions, but if you check the Coherus website and drill down to INVESTORS and then PRESENTATIONS, you will find a presentation from the Jefferies Conference last month. It includes expected timings of regulatory submissions, as well as current and expected market for originator products (as well as their rationale for choosing their target products). No mention of what share they expect to take, nor their expected pricing.

  • As others have noted, when GSK's dividend came through last week, there was a fee associated with it. I sent an e-mail to Investor Relations to get more information, and I just received the following, in response:



    Thank you for your email, which has been passed on to me from our Investor Relations department.

    GSK circulated a notice to registered ADR holders on 6 April 2015, notifying them that the Company’s Deposit Agreement has been amended, from 1 January 2015, to allow the Depositary to charge ADR holders a fee in connection with paying dividends. Subsequently GSK introduced a dividend fee for ADR holders for the first time in our Q1 2015 dividend payment.

    As a result ADS holders who receive a cash dividend will be charged up to $0.05 per ADS and this fee will be deducted from the quarterly dividend prior to holders receiving the cash dividend. GSK intends to use the fees to offset, in part, the costs related to SEC registration including Sarbanes-Oxley related expenses, administering the ADS facility and maintaining its NYSE listing fees.

    I do hope this has clarified your query, however please do not hesitate to contact myself or Maninder Dhiman should you have any further.

    With kind regards
    Natasha

    Natasha Jamal
    Company Secretarial Assistant
    PLC & Shareholder Services
    Corporate Secretariat

  • Reply to

    Special dividend from vaccine spin off

    by dukecity79 Jul 12, 2015 1:51 PM
    dmagman dmagman Jul 12, 2015 3:09 PM Flag

    Here is a link from Simon Dingemans' presentation at the annual meeting in May. On the 8th and 11th slides, he refers to a special dividend of 20p (roughly equal to a regular quarterly dividend) to be paid concurrently with the 4Q2015 dividend.
    What is not clear from the presentation is whether 4Q2015 refers to the dividend to be paid in the 4th quarter (probably not, though) or the dividend associated with the fiscal 4Q2015. If it is the later (my guess), it would not be paid until April, 2016.

    http://www.gsk.com/media/650079/simon-dingemans-investor-event-presentation.pdf

  • Reply to

    anyone receice their div today?

    by gollywogazoo Jul 9, 2015 10:12 AM
    dmagman dmagman Jul 11, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    I sent an e-mail to Shareholder Services today. I will update this board when I hear back from them.

  • Reply to

    Any News?

    by zingoteo Jul 10, 2015 11:26 AM
    dmagman dmagman Jul 10, 2015 2:19 PM Flag

    If my math is right, the market cap of CHRS when it came public, at around $13 a share, was half a billion. Its market cap is now approx 1.3 billion. What would a fair buyout price be? What price would be high enough for management to sell?

  • Reply to

    anyone receice their div today?

    by gollywogazoo Jul 9, 2015 10:12 AM
    dmagman dmagman Jul 10, 2015 5:49 AM Flag

    The fee showed up on my account, too. I have never seen this before. It looks like it is half a cent (ie - $0.005) per share. No idea why.

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