The discussion at the end of the article was especially insightful. Even if AXON can get the drug approved, the challenges of getting payers to pay for the drug will be nearly insurmountable, given that approval would be based on small symptomatic improvements and the availability of Aricept generics.
their S-1 is misleading: "U.S. pet food retail sales grew 62% between 2004 and 2014, which represents a CAGR of 5%, based on data from Euromonitor."
Can you clarify what you mean when you say their S-1 was misleading? Where did you read that the US market is growing at 1% (vs the 5% that they state?)
It seems a bit odd to me that you would ask this question, if you are trading options. You should really understand how the options work before you start trading them.
This may not affect your decision on whether to buy the option back or not, but if the stock goes x-div before the expiration date, the dividend will be yours. The stock will also drop by the amount of the dividend ($.64?) on the x-div date, making it less likely that the $48 strike price will be reached. If your expiration date is Sept 18, history would suggest that the x-div date should occur before that.
I say that it may not affect your decision, because a buy-out announcement would presumably be at a price that would more than make up for the lost-dividend to the buyer or you call.
sum - I don't know how long you have been following GSK, so you may or may not know this. When they announced the deals with Novartis last year, GSK announced that they would return 4 billion pounds of the cash they received to investors as a special dividend. After the deal was finalized, they backed off that and said that they would return just 1 billion pounds as a special dividend. Until they declare it, I would not assume that there is a 100% chance of actually paying out on their intent. Decreasing this special dividend again would, I think, be suicide for the CEO. So, I do expect they will pay this dividend in April.
As you pointed out, the actual payouts will depend on exchange rates (this year's $ payouts are roughly 10% below last year's, despite the same payout in pound sterling). But, a $3.00 payout over the next year is about right, if you include the special dividend.
I should add that they have not yet declared the special dividend, so there is still some uncertainty around its actual value, even in pound sterling. I would think (hope?) that they would not forego it completely, after having already decreased it in value from a year ago.
In the July 29 press release for the Q2 results, the stated that they expect to pay an ordinary dividend of 80p for each of 2015, 2016 and 2017. They also stated that they will return approximately 1 billion pounds to via a special dividend to be paid alongside their 4Q2015 ordinary dividend. That dividend will be paid in April, 2016. The special dividend should be roughly the same as another quarterly dividend.
I can't wait to see the spin they put on their first interaction with the Japanese regulatory authority, if/when it ever happens!
So, what would a fair take-out offer be? $60 per share, or approx 145 billion usd??