Someone should tell the MRK board......this must be another one of your examples of companies not playing by the rules????
I love these guys who can't get their facts right!
and how, exactly, would you justify that the results are NOT material information, if the results are being used to facilitate a buyout?
Are you suggesting that they would share the results with possible buyout suitors, but not with shareholders? smh
He is a long time bear on ACHN. His rationale seems to be that blaupost is not invested in ACHN, so it must not be a good investment!
Probably due to the proposed new shares that are being proposed, and its dilutive effect. Once the trading on that news clears, we should settle down again.
Don't you think the -3422 data may affect this? I can't imagine any company buying ACHN until those results area available.
...any idea what the criteria are for being able to uplist? More to the point, how much time would be expected to pass from now, in order for those criteria to be met?
Down....down....down....the drop in the last half hour leaves us with just a 12% INCREASE on the day so far...........wait a minute..........that's a GOOD THING! Sorry, shorty!
OR, the study is not yet complete!
I don't know that the actual $ amounts in the article are accurate, but it is likely directionally correct. A LOT is riding on the last phase of the ongoing study. If the data suggest that -3422 cannot compete with Solvadi, the value of ACHN should drop "quite a bit" from here. If the data show the desired 4 log10 reduction, the stock should continue to grow, likely heading for a buyout.
It's really up to each investor to decide whether to play this out, or take current profits, or just not play such a binary result.
I don't have the full history of this study...not sure if you do. From what I can tell, the study was initiated September, 2013 and, due to poor patient recruitment, entry criteria were changed earlier this year. They may have added sites beyond the originally planned sites, at that time also. They now have 26 sites recruiting, to get 60 patients - not ideal. All of this points to the obvious - the difficulty in getting this type of patient into a Phase ! study.
I suppose you could fault the company, or the sites, for not being able to accurately predict the sites' ability to recruit, based on the I/E criteria. But, this type of study is always challenging. DO you know how many patients are currently recruited?
Many years ago, I heard a quote (sorry, but I don't remember exactly who said it, but it was an historical multi-millionaire) of an investor who was asked how he got to be so rich. He said that he never bought a stock at its lowest point nor sold it at its highest point.
I have always interpreted this to mean to set your own goals on each investment and then act on those goals. I assume RA had set their investment goal for ACHN. If they hit the goal and sold, GOOD FOR THEM!! It doesn't mean ACHN will not go higher, and doesn't necessarily have any impact on what MY goals are.
Good luck to all.
I wonder if it has anything to with the impact that a potential billion dollar drug would have on GSK (with annual sales of 40 Billion) and Tekmira (with annual sales of 15 Million)?
I had assumed, based on the way they labelled the groups, that they would complete all of the multiple-dose HV groups (ie - Groups 5-8) before proceeding to the HCV groups (ie - Groups 9-12). Your plan clearly would get to the end of the study quicker, if they are comfortable with overlapping some of the HV and HCV groups.
Do you have any insight as to overlap between Groups 5-8 and 9-12? Wouldn't they run groups 5 and 9 in parallel, if they were to do so? If they did, then on Aug 7, they should have had results for HV and HCV for 50mg, I think.
Like you, I certainly do not know how they are progressing the groups...btw, that for the details around your Project assumptions...it makes discussions much easier.