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Allergan Inc. Message Board

dmesshian 41 posts  |  Last Activity: 4 hours ago Member since: Aug 19, 2011
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  • Reply to

    NGVC: The "Hidden Gem"

    by dmesshian 11 hours ago
    dmesshian dmesshian 4 hours ago Flag

    Focus on the fundamentals and you can't go wrong!

  • Reply to

    NGVC: The "Hidden Gem"

    by dmesshian 11 hours ago
    dmesshian dmesshian 8 hours ago Flag

    Today is proof that Mr. Market has finally discovered the "Hidden Gem" that is NGVC!
    And the rally is just beginning, whisperingpines1962.
    You were right all along!

  • dmesshian dmesshian 8 hours ago Flag

    Why do you refuse to disclose what's your position on NGVC stock, so we can evaluate that against your commentary?
    Are you coddling your "short bet" against the NGVC stock?
    Please advise?

  • Reply to

    NGVC: The "Hidden Gem"

    by dmesshian 11 hours ago
    dmesshian dmesshian 8 hours ago Flag

    As you know, it is the fundamentals of a company's business that should be the focus of the prudent investor, and not the the rantings of short traders with their short-sighted, and self-serving commentary.

  • dmesshian dmesshian 8 hours ago Flag

    This is the rantings of a "NGVC short-trader" trying to shout fire in crowded theater.
    If cash flow was a problem why wouldn't the analyst sound the alarm and downgrade NGVC -- instead they have re-affirmed their "outperform ratings".
    Dude, why don't you have the decency to cover , than to try this contrived -- grasping at straws -- tactics!
    It's so, SO... indecent of you, eh!

  • dmesshian dmesshian 8 hours ago Flag

    "The stock got obliterated in 2014 --- going from ~$45 to ~$17 -- because they screwed up..."
    Why are you always looking backwards?
    - Almost every company tend to stumble within 18 to 24 months following their IPO. We all remember the famous, or; infamous Facebook(FB), "face-plant" out of the gate in May of 21012!. FB created so many haters from investors who got "hosed" by that grand fiasco.
    - However, the great companies with outstanding mgmt teams: like NGVC and FB -- for example -- learn from the experience.
    - They pick themselves up off the carpet, learn the lesson, and quickly rebound!!!
    My point is: Don't be side-tracked -- my esteemed fellow NGVC investors -- by the anger of haters, spewing their "sour grapes" against one of the "most experienced and best mgmt teams" in the "Specialty Organic Retail Sector" today!
    Don't err by listening the "noise of haters" unload their baggage on your "prudent and intelligent investing decisions"!
    - Their sordid experience obviously left them damage and has nothing to do with: "your reality"!
    - Last I looked, earnings and profits, historically -- by definition -- are the primary drivers of stock prices and NGVC is one of great growth story that is currently trading a HUGE discount!

  • dmesshian dmesshian 10 hours ago Flag

    sjohns & In. Muller, that is why we turn to the work of analysts to provide some "future perspective" -- forward guidance, if you will -- as to how the underpinnings of the business behind stocks like, NGVC is performing.
    As you see it's way, WAY superior to your: "flawed, misleading, and self-serving", if you will; backwards looking and ill informed commentary!

  • Reply to

    Winners and Losers

    by sjohns444 12 hours ago
    dmesshian dmesshian 10 hours ago Flag

    - Please be advised that: The Stock Market is considered to be a Discounting Mechanism; that is, participants are always looking forward.
    If History were a predictor of future trading direction of stocks: historians and -- backward looking investor, like you -- would be the richest and most successful investors / traders in the world!!!
    - Bear in mind that: "Your knowledge of the past performance of stocks is no guarantee of future returns."
    **Sorry, but the attached: "Winners & Losers" lacks relevance, as to providing any "meaningful forward guidance", or usable knowledge -- for that matter -- to prudent and enterprising investors, pal!

  • Reply to

    Economics 101

    by reversesplit Mar 20, 2015 11:38 AM
    dmesshian dmesshian 11 hours ago Flag

    Dude, the Retail industry has never about Econ-101!
    This is a MAJOR flaw in your DD!
    To really comprehend the Retail industry you have to have knowledge of Marketing, pal.
    Marketing strategy is what differentiates the winners from losers in almost every competitive sector in retail!!!

  • NGVC's success in the "Special Organic Retail Sector" is not adequately explained by an introductory course in Economics(ECON-101), as one NGVC bearish argument on the thread might want you to believe. That notion misses the mark for being too overly simplistic to be taken seriously.
    The explanation success of NGVC goes way, WAY beyond the realm of: "Freshman Economics".
    The world of Retail is perceived from a Marketing perspective, rather than Econ-101 for starters!
    -The rough and tumble world of Retail is never explained, nor analyzed from the perspective of supply and demand.

    - NGVC's business is thriving and will continue to flourish because of its "clever and innovative Marketing Strategy": NGVC's success can be explained by: price, product, placement and promotion, that allows NGVC to deliver the TOP customer experience in retail today -- bar none!
    - Great mgmt with a superior marketing strategy explains why: Natural Grocers is projected to see sales growth this year of 20.25%, crushing the industry average of 4.63% and further underscoring the "company’s title as a great growth stock". That's 4 to 5 times the industry average.
    - Plus, when you compare the PEG ratios of the sector leaders and grocery retail leaders, it shows NGVC with the lowest PEG of 1.68 to other stocks, like: KR, Sfy, WMT, Target, even Specialty Organics Sector leader WFM.
    - The stock is currently trading in bargain territory at these levels. Given NGVC's growth rate. Its favorable PEG is signaling that the stock can well support ample PE expansion at its current level.
    - That's why analysts all have projected price levels in the low to mid $30's!!!
    - You have NGVC PE contracting over the past 3 to 4 months, while its business is expanding:
    growing YOY at 4 to 5 times the whole retail sector!
    - NGVC's stock price is currently trading at odds with the true strength of its "outperforming business"!
    - This is the definition of a "Hidden Gem".
    - NGVC stock is a treasure waiting to be found!

  • dmesshian dmesshian 11 hours ago Flag

    NGVC is such a GREAT Growth story!
    - Buy and Hold.
    - Prudent investors -- as well as -- enterprising investors will soon be beating a path to this authentic GROWTH story!

  • Reply to

    NGVC Rate

    by whisperingpines1962 May 29, 2015 8:26 AM
    dmesshian dmesshian May 29, 2015 1:35 PM Flag

    It's the confirmation of the fundamental underpinnings of NGVC's business that driving WP's optimism!
    We can all see through: "your prolong distortiornate" -- if you will -- "self-serving false narratives"!
    We've discovered the "hidden gem" of a HUGE growth business that is NGVC!
    Don't you agree! Of course it's taking Mr. Market some time to find this "awesome GROWTH story".

    *It just takes a little bit of patience, and time that -- after all -- are 2 of the prudent investor's greatest assets: one a virtue and the other an ally, eh!

  • Reply to

    NGVC Rate

    by whisperingpines1962 May 29, 2015 8:26 AM
    dmesshian dmesshian May 29, 2015 1:00 PM Flag

    Where is the relevance please: to the "awesome growth business" of NGVC?
    Seems like he's made a great pick with NGVC, if he just stay long, and stay strong ;to the exclusion of all irrelevant and distracting: NOISE makers!
    You are the master of the "red herring" who has a fixation for looking backwards!
    I sure hope you don't drive your car that way, pal.
    Please, let's focus on NGVC's business on this mssg board!

  • Reply to

    NGVC Rate

    by whisperingpines1962 May 29, 2015 8:26 AM
    dmesshian dmesshian May 29, 2015 11:32 AM Flag

    YOU claim: "Taken by itself (i.e., without considering a multitude of other metrics/factors), YOY sales growth rate alone is a very poor basis for stock selection."
    WHAT??? There are ZERO: " multitude of other metrics/factors" for any business concern on the Planet that can deliver: "PURE GROWTH". Either you deliver growth, or you don't!

    **Earnings and profits -- by definition -- have always been the primary drivers of stock prices! That's what NGVC has delivered for 3 consecutive Qtrs!

    -Your attached example doesn't make much sense, and is total "distortionate dis-information" -- if you will -- to apparently : "coddle your SHORT OPTIONS PLAY ON NGVC stock, eh.
    - NGVC is averaging YOY growth of +21% is way off the charts for a grocery retail business that historically grows in the single digits. So NGVC sales and revenues is growing @ 4 to 5 times the industry avg. with +33% profit growth.
    At this rate of growth, Its revenues will probably eclipse $1 Billion in 2 to 3 years -- faster if the Economy accelerates.
    - That is phenomenal performance by any, and all "objective measures".

  • dmesshian dmesshian May 29, 2015 10:41 AM Flag

    Your comment: "Zacks? NGVC peaked in 2015 at 31.54 (close) on Feb. 5, 2015. That’s the SAME DAY as excerpt below from Zacks. It’s been downhill ever since then --- down by a whopping 25% as of May 8 close"
    - Zacks statement: released to subscribers -- just yesterday -- who follow specific stocks on their list, pal.
    - However, I can see why you would have a vested interest in promoting that: "distortionate point of view" .
    - Zacks analysis is purely related to the business of Natural Grocers(NGVC) for investors with a long,LONG view, who seek the best growth stocks.

    * You, as a "self described Day Trader & Options,(short-trader) is just focused on the day to day Market roller coaster. Plus, your "extremely short-term horizon" trading would always be at odds with the goals of the substance of Zacks expressed: bullish comments on NGVC.
    **Please be advised that: The Stock Market is considered to be a Discounting Mechanism; that is, participants are always looking forward.
    - However, you always appear to be looking backwards: i.e.; "NGVC peaked in 2015 at 31.54 (close) on Feb. 5, 2015".
    So, are you implying that the business, BUSINESS of Natural Grocers will whittle, and die because... the stock, THE STOCK -- not the business,eh? -- peaked on Feb. 5, 2015?
    Do you drive your car on the freeway always looking in the rear view window?. Please! I need to know, so I can be assured that we don't live in the same city, county... nor state!

  • Summary from Zacks Equity Research on Natural Grocers (NGVC) - published today.

    Arguably nothing is more important than earnings growth as surging profit levels is what most investors are after. And for growth investors, earnings growth in the double digits is definitely necessary and it is often an indication of strong prospects (and stock price gains) ahead for the company in question.

    - While NGVC has put up a historical EPS growth rate of 33.08%, investors should really focus on the projected growth. Here, NGVC is looking to grow at a rate of 13.05%, thoroughly crushing the industry average which calls for EPS growth of just 11.16 % in comparison.

    - ...consider how NGVC is positioned from a sales growth perspective. Natural Grocers is projected to see sales growth this year of 20.25%, crushing the industry average of 4.63% and further underscoring the "company’s title as a great growth stock".

    NGVC Earnings Estimate Revisions Moving in the Right Direction
    - If the metrics outlined above weren’t enough investors should also consider the positive trends that we are seeing on the analyst estimate revision front. Analysts have been raising their estimates for Natural Grocers lately, and now the earnings picture is looking a bit more favorable for the company.

    ** Over the past 60 days 3 EPS estimates have been revised higher compared to none lower, at least for the current year time frame. And the magnitude of these revisions has also been impressive, as the consensus estimate for the full year has surged from 66 cents per share to 68 cents per share today.

  • dmesshian dmesshian May 28, 2015 9:44 AM Flag

    What's your AVERSION to discussing the 6 month trend from October, 2014 when the resurgence of NGVC began, eh?
    - 5yr. historical doesn't tell the story.
    - As I said: 6 month trend from October is my friend.
    Could it be that it blows your "distortionate narrative" out of the water?

  • dmesshian dmesshian May 27, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    Price is indeed truth, however; on the Mr. Market's historical time tested truth, and not YOUR: distorionate, manipulative, and pretentious "juxtaposition of the data" to fit a negative narrative, pal.

    For example, you claim:
    - "NGVC stock prices: $44.07 on 03/20/14; 23.97 on 07/22/14; $24.89 on 05/25/15'.

    FACT:
    - NGVC stock bottomed at $17.32 on Oct. 29, 2014, a low of the past 6 months.
    - NGVC rebounded to trade at a intraday high of $35.00 on Jan. 30. Please do the math for investors who've been holding the stock since the bottom in Oct.? It's a veritable 100%+, pal.
    - Plus, since that October bottom NGVC stock is still trending HUGELY positive.

    This message board is not, NOT about "YOUR personal ax to grind" against NGVC, nor its mgmt.
    Because you got crushed, CRUSHED as a former investor when the stock collapsed from its former high it doesn't mean NGVC is permanently at fault.
    YOUR past experience means nothing to me; no matter how much you repeatedly sulk about it! Get over your own pain!
    It's not my reality over the past 6 months, eh! Frankly I don't give a hoot about your sob sad story!

    I hope YOU realize that: past performance of a stock is no indication of future direction, 'cause if it did; you would be the richest bloke in the known universe!

  • Reply to

    Competition

    by sjohns444 May 26, 2015 9:44 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian May 27, 2015 1:41 PM Flag

    Your attached comment reads like the ranting and whining of a flatulent popinjay, but; I will select one "distortionate point" that shows: your game, pal.

    In your words:
    sj...444:-
    “RBC Capital. They now have a $33.00 price target…..down previously from $35.00.”
    Yaaaaay! Are you finally getting it now? My point for weeks has been that prices had been too high, valuations had been too high. I posted multiple times that valuations are starting to get more reasonable for all “specialty organic retailers,” even though they are certainly not dirt cheap bargains, because the stock prices have collapsed over the past couple of years or so. Do you finally now understand that multiples are NOT going back to where they were?

    If valuations were too high why would RBC Capital only lower the one year target price by just $2 -- $35 down to $33 / share?
    A valuation reduction would've been more severe, than an obvious, $2 slap on the wrist. RBC Capital would've lowered projections into the mid to high $20's, if valuations were in question.

    If YOU had listen to NGVC's Conf. Call, or; did your DD, and read the transcript you would've easily discern that the reduction by RBC Capital was more about NGVC not raising it forward guidance, following such a outstanding performance on the top and bottom line! Kudos to CEO Iseley for being very cautious and conservative; although he admitted that sales had rebounded strongly in April, he wasn't ready to throw caution to the wind -- given how they had slowed in March.

    - Are you really a cognoscente, or a poseur? This is too BIG a miss on an obvious -- clear-cut read.
    You've admitted to being a day trader and an options trader, so I am very cautious about your motivations in with all your huge overt lapses in analyzing and presenting information on NGVC.

  • Reply to

    Competition

    by sjohns444 May 26, 2015 9:44 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian May 27, 2015 11:10 AM Flag

    Per your attached comment: "Benzinga, J. Swanson article today cites Longbow analyst on TFM"
    Oops! This is NGVC's message board! Don't you think the attached comment belongs at the TFM mssg board? Where is the relevance???
    - Seems like competition is great for NGVC because the company is not wilting in the face of competition; it is outperforming! Competition is good. It's not to be feared when you have the right strategy that produces great results!

    From the looks of it: you are trying to conflate TFM's weak performance with NGVC, who outperformed the whole sector this Qtr. There is absolutely no relevance between these two businesses moving in opposite direction. Dude, NGVC investors, like me; for example: look to "RBC Capital's analyst on NGVC"; and certainly not to YOU -- with this way, WAY off the mark Machiavellian-like distortion, nor to the un-related comments by Longbow analyst on TFM.

    – "Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage had its “outperform” rating reaffirmed by analysts at RBC Capital. They now have a $33.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $35.00. They wrote, “Like its peers, Natural Grocers reported decelerating comparable store sales growth. Importantly, however, Natural Grocers still delivered share gains with +5.6% comp growth outpacing competitors. We continue to believe that easing competitive openings and less in-market competitive pressure will help comp re-accelerate.”

    As to your claim of not being short NGVC stock. Come on!
    Any objective observer -- with the IQ of a squid -- if you will, can see that your skin in this game is not on NGVC. Apparently you were up all night churning out the usual: "distortionate schlock" that has now become your trademark on the NGVC mssg board -- trying to convince investors to run from a stock that's growing +21% YOY: in the "specialty organic retail sector"???.
    - Please list the number of publicly traded food retailers that equaled, or exceeded NGVC's +21% YOY growth during the current reporting period?