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Allergan plc Message Board

dmesshian 78 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 24, 2015 1:21 PM Member since: Aug 19, 2011
  • dmesshian dmesshian Jun 17, 2015 11:50 AM Flag

    Please be advised that the StarMine Equity Summary Ratings are always forward looking.
    Be advised that: "past performance is a proven poor indicator of future returns."
    *{From Buffettology: If history were an accurate and reliable predictor of future returns, librarians and Historians -- like you -- would be the richest, and most celebrated investors in the world.}

    And you are not!!!
    - You are stuck here all day -- working the NGVC Mssg board -- trying to cuddle your very, VERY FRAGILE short position in NGVC stock, pal.

  • dmesshian dmesshian Jun 17, 2015 4:58 AM Flag

    This upgrade yesterday pushed NGVC's StarMine rating into strong bullish sentiment territory.
    - StarMine ratings are heavily relied by prudent investors -- as well as -- institutional investors for investing ideas..

  • dmesshian dmesshian Jun 15, 2015 1:44 PM Flag

    The analysts will be proven correct on NGVC's next Qtr report.
    - The upgrades and revisions by retail analysts has been staggering, as sobering to this NGVC long.
    - I will never sell into the "noise effort by NGVC short traders" whose intended effect is to generate panic and "F.E.A.R" (False Expectation Appearing Real).
    My focus is away from F.E.A.R. and to keep my laser-like focus on the fundamentals under-pinning's of NGVC's strong business because ultimately it's earnings and profits that are the key drivers of stock prices.

    - "NGVC has put up a historical EPS growth rate of 33.08%, investors should really focus on the projected growth. Here, NGVC is looking to grow at a rate of 13.05%, thoroughly crushing the industry average which calls for EPS growth of just 11.16 % in comparison."

  • My incisive and sophisticated analysis is what you should expect from a thoughtful and prudent investor who goes above and beyond when it comes to DD
    Amazon is, by all measures, the leading online retailer -- in eCommerce.
    - AMZN spent $6 BILLION in delivery cost last year!
    - plus AMZN delivery cost is rising at 40% YOY!!!
    Its a known fact in the business community that the eCommerce business model is unsustainable". Total drag on financials because eCommerce is expensive and a HUGE drag on the bottom line.
    eCommerce as evidence by AMZN's current dilemma is not the wave of the future. AMZN's mgmt knows this and the company is slowly altering its Bus. model to incorporate a more multi-dimensional approach to lower costs.
    When you delve deeper into retail sector, you will find that retailers, like: Macy's, Nordstrom & William Sonoma have outperformed AMZN over the past 2 to 3 years!
    These brick N' mortars have enacted, what is now considered; the "best practices in retailing".
    NGVC discontinued its eCommerce business about 2 years ago and is a practitioner of the "best practices in retailing".
    - NGVC's results have been outstanding!
    From Zacks Equity Research:
    "While NGVC has put up a historical EPS growth rate of 33.08%, investors should really focus on the projected growth. Here, NGVC is looking to grow at a rate of 13.05%, thoroughly crushing the industry average which calls for EPS growth of just 11.16 % in comparison."
    - Right now Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage has a S/TA ratio -- sales to asset ratio -- of 2.93 which means that the company gets $2.93 in sales for each dollar in assets. Compare this to the industry average which is a ratio of 2.13 and you can say that NGVC is a bit more efficient than the industry at large."
    - And to top it off: NGVC is projected to see sales growth this year of 20.25%, crushing the industry average of 4.63% and further underscoring the company’s title as a great growth stock

  • dmesshian dmesshian Jun 12, 2015 2:20 PM Flag

    Real cool!

  • dmesshian dmesshian Jun 12, 2015 1:56 PM Flag

    Trader Joes: a privately held business concern and NGVC the top growth business in Specialty Organics don't need eCommerce!
    Check it out:
    - TJs:"- Fortune magazine estimated Trader Joe's sales per square foot of floor space to be $1,750 — more than double that generated by Whole Foods Market. Plus, revenues are upwards of
    $12+ BILLIONS!!! - There are no plans for TJs to enter the eCommerce arena"

    - Natural grocers -NGVC: "Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage has a S/TA ratio -- sales to asset ratio -- of 2.93 which means that the company gets $2.93 in sales for each dollar in assets. Compare this to the industry average which is a ratio of 2.13 and you can say that NGVC is a bit more efficient than the industry at large."
    - Plus: " "NGVC is projected to see sales growth this year of 20.25%, crushing the industry average of 4.63% and further underscoring the company’s title as a great growth stock". Growth that is 4 to 5 times the industry average. That tells me NGVC stock will not be "flying under the radar" with that kinda' growth for long, and: isn't this right where you want to be awaiting the bullish rush to NGVC???"

  • dmesshian dmesshian Jun 12, 2015 1:38 PM Flag

    The "Best Practices in Retail" is the core part of NGVC's -- "state of the art" -- Superior Customer Experience that keeps it the top growth play in Specialty Organics Retail.
    Consumers live very active and busy lives and the new paradigm is a shift in providing what customers want.
    For example:
    - consumers want convenience over speed
    - buy online to pick up in store
    - submit order via mobile for pick up in store, or; delivery via Instacart, Uber, etc.-- at specified location & time.
    NGVC is on it! Natural Grocers has inked deals with Instacart in select locations for maximum service to customers, where the service is available, and its customers express great interest in using the service.
    - Consumers are fragmented across a continuum, therefore; the forward thinking retailers, like NGVC will thrive as long as it continues to provide its customers with options and conveniences in its specific niche.
    The modern retail store has morphed into a multi-purpose units
    - It's not mainly a retail outlet like back in the past century.
    - it's multi-purpose uses can be seen as a warehouse: to fulfill online, or mobile orders to be dispatch via Instacart, customer pick up, or whatever method of delivery that conveniences the customer.
    - Plus NGVC's stores all have an in store conference room for use by its customers for meetings, etc.
    - Many NGVC stores have certified nutritionists on staff to provide free counseling and advice to customers.
    America is wringing its hands over "the obesity epidemic", well; NGVC is on the solution trail to solve this major social problem, where it could be most effective -- right in the grocery where the family's meal preparation plan begins at the NGVC "Specialty Organic Grocery Store"!
    *What a concept, eh! Now you know why this "specialty organic retailer" -- Natural Grocers -- is so dear to my heart.
    This is a forward thinking company and business with "state of the art solutions" to problems of the 21st century!!!

  • Reply to

    What NGVC Problems II -- eCommerce

    by dmesshian Jun 11, 2015 10:40 AM
    dmesshian dmesshian Jun 11, 2015 12:04 PM Flag

    The "Best Practices in Retail" relies on surrounding your customers with conveniences.
    Consumers live very active and busy lives and the new paradigm is a shift in providing what customers want.
    For example:
    - consumers want convenience over speed
    - buy online to pick up in store
    - submit order via mobile for pick up in store, or; delivery via Instacart, Uber, etc.-- at specified location & time.
    NGVC is on it! Natural Grocers has inked deals with Instacart in select locations for maximum service to customers, where the service is available, and its customers express great interest in using the service.
    - Consumers are fragmented across a continuum, therefore; the forward thinking retailers, like NGVC will thrive as long as it continues to provide its customers with options and conveniences in its specific niche.
    The modern retail store has morphed into a multi-purpose units
    - It's not mainly a retail outlet like back in the past century.
    - it's multi-purpose uses can be seen as a warehouse: to fulfill online, or mobile orders to be dispatch via Instacart, customer pick up, or whatever method of delivery that conveniences the customer.
    - Plus NGVC's stores all have an in store conference room for use by its customers for meetings, etc.
    - Many NGVC stores have certified nutritionists on staff to provide free counseling and advice to customers.
    America is wringing its hands over "the obesity epidemic", well; NGVC is on the solution trail to solve this major social problem, where it could be most effective -- right in the grocery where the family's meal preparation plan begins at the NGVC "Specialty Organic Grocery Store"!
    *What a concept, eh! Now you know why this "specialty organic retailer" -- Natural Grocers -- is so dear to my heart.
    This is a forward thinking company and business with "state of the art solutions" to problems of the 21st century!!!

  • dmesshian dmesshian Jun 10, 2015 2:44 PM Flag

    I am always fascinated by what can be learned in the quest for truth when an enterprising investor get's in on really understanding the inner workings of a growth business such as NGVC.

  • dmesshian dmesshian Jun 10, 2015 1:30 PM Flag

    Enterprising investors can turn to the recent comments by Zacks to discern and find direction for current manifested strength and growth of NGVC's business over the next 12 to 18 months!

  • Reply to

    NGVC: The "Hidden Gem"

    by dmesshian Jun 1, 2015 12:20 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian Jun 10, 2015 1:18 PM Flag

    This is a summary of what is actually known about NGVC to date!

  • Reply to

    NGVC "TROLL-Short-trader" Alert

    by dmesshian Jun 10, 2015 12:08 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian Jun 10, 2015 12:52 PM Flag

    Please note my esteemed fellow investors: this is the post with the comment the "NGVC-Troll" doesn't want you to read because it is the truth.
    * Note how he launches a flurry of a string of his repetitive, his dis-informative posts!
    This is the undisputed truth he is trying to suppress!

  • Reply to

    NGVC: The "Hidden Gem"

    by dmesshian Jun 1, 2015 12:20 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian Jun 9, 2015 11:45 AM Flag

    There is a big reason why most retail analysts following NGVC have been upgrading and pounding the table on one of the best investments and purest organic in the retail sector.
    - NGVC, today has a grand store opening celebration to Fargo, North Dakota, a metropolitan region on the border of Minnesota and North Dakota with 240,000 pop. -- a region starved for the presence of a "specialty organic retailer"!
    - 2 more store openings scheduled latter part of the month to close out this Qtr.
    - This is a sign of a healthy, thriving, and rapidly growing business for this unique and most successful niche player, that is on pace to become: the "organic grocer/retailer of choice to Mid-Town America".
    - It has a HUGE cost and competitive advantage in opening stores where; due to economics and financials constraints: the "BIG behemoths" cant!
    - Even Whole Foods is at a disadvantage, and is now planning to launch its "Value Brand" of smaller stores: to go operational in 2 YEARS???
    - NGVC will most likely be a $1+ Billion revenue operation by then; with a HUGE advantage to fend off anyh competitor.

  • dmesshian dmesshian Jun 9, 2015 10:20 AM Flag

    This will be proven to be a great bargain at these levels, like back in October when I bought NGVC stock trading at bargain basement levels at $17, and watched it doubled by Jan 31, 2015.
    In fact, NGVC is even stronger than back in October.
    - The company is on a streak of 3 quarters of sequential growth, and shows all signs of outperforming in the current qtr.

  • Reply to

    Another Upgrade

    by whisperingpines1962 Jun 5, 2015 1:17 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian Jun 8, 2015 10:00 AM Flag

    Friday's upgrade is just one of a slew of upgrades of NGVC coming from the various retail analysts following the stock -- most after NGVC posted it 3rd sequential Qtr of outstanding performance.
    This significant surge in analysts sentiment can be summarized in the following comments released by Zacks over the past week:
    - While NGVC has put up a historical EPS growth rate of 33.08%, investors should really focus on the projected growth. Here, NGVC is looking to grow at a rate of 13.05%, thoroughly crushing the industry average which calls for EPS growth of just 11.16 % in comparison.

    - ...consider how NGVC is positioned from a sales growth perspective. Natural Grocers is projected to see sales growth this year of 20.25%, crushing the industry average of 4.63% and further underscoring the "company’s title as a great growth stock".

    NGVC Earnings Estimate Revisions Moving in the Right Direction
    - If the metrics outlined above weren’t enough investors should also consider the positive trends that we are seeing on the analyst estimate revision front. Analysts have been raising their estimates for Natural Grocers lately, and now the earnings picture is looking a bit more favorable for the company.

    ** Over the past 60 days 3 EPS estimates have been revised higher compared to none lower, at least for the current year time frame. And the magnitude of these revisions has also been impressive, as the consensus estimate for the full year has surged from 66 cents per share to 68 cents per share today.

  • Reply to

    Another Upgrade

    by whisperingpines1962 Jun 5, 2015 1:17 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian Jun 5, 2015 2:22 PM Flag

    A company that rolls out 5 to 6 new store openings -- a record for NGVC -- in a quarter will grab the analysts attention!
    This is a clear sign of a healthy and thriving business at NGVC. In fact, you can bag this quarter -- which will represent a streak of 4 sequential quarters of sustained +21% top line growth.
    - NGVC is outperforming all Retail. What a growth engine!

  • Reply to

    **NGVC Trading In Oversold Territory

    by dmesshian Jun 4, 2015 2:30 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian Jun 5, 2015 1:03 PM Flag

    Please check my incisive analysis posted in midst of yesterday's "fog of war", if you will; from yesterday, where I confidently called yesterday's bottom in NGVC.
    - It was pure lessons from principles of Buffettology: "buy when others are fearful".
    - Note that NGVC is still in bargain territory based on Retail analysts projections!
    And I aided investors with tools -- clear headed reasoned opinion -- if they were seeking corroborating advice to their own research and DD in making investing decision about NGVC.
    - Now please compare the attached to that of: the Resident NGVC's mssg board TROLL", and you will see a significant difference in tone and substance -- my esteemed fellow investors!

  • Reply to

    **NGVC Trading In Oversold Territory

    by dmesshian Jun 4, 2015 2:30 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian Jun 5, 2015 2:00 AM Flag

    It seems like a breakout for this stock is possible.
    For this week NGVC has moved strongly higher on above average trading volume, however; on down days the volume tends to be way below avg. of its daily volume!
    - Selling volume appears to be drying up, while NGVC's base is consolidating.
    - This is appears to be a pattern that could precipitate a breakout. Stocks tend to breakout from strong consolidated bases, and NGVC has been in a protracted trading range for close to 4 weeks.
    - It is well worth paying attention to the charts based on the trading to see what they reveal, as well as, what they portend going forward.

  • Today presents a great buying opportunity for the prudent and enterprising investor -- as well as, value investors -- for a company with positive long term growth profile.
    The company has sequentially outperform the average growth rate of the food retail sector over the past 3 quarters with a YOY performance of +21% vs the avg of 4.6%! NGVC trades bounce off its 6 to 8 month low of $17 to a high of $35 on Jan. 31st, and has pulled back to this morning's low on below avg trading volume -- even though NGVC business has continued to outperform the sector.
    - During the current Qtr,, retail sector analyst continue to raise their yearly earnings from 0.66 to 0.68.
    - NGVC mgmt has re-affirmed their guidance for the remainder of its Fiscal Year.
    - Earnings are projected to outperform with the addition of 5 new store opening this Qtr., and the U.S. Economy is projected to rebound from its negative Q1 GDP growth of -0.7%. All signs are pointed UP for NGVC to thrive for the remainder of the year and beyond into 2016!.
    - NGVC PEG ration of 1.6, plus; given its YOY growth of 4 to 5 times the retail avg; not only represents, "great value" with a excellent margin of safety, that places the stock in the "extreme value stock zone"!
    *Note that several retail analysts following NGVC, (RBC Capital, Zacks, et.al), has ratings from: buy to outperform; with price targets from: $33 to $36!

    Good luck to all!

AGN
331.00-3.92(-1.17%)Aug 4 4:02 PMEDT