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Allergan Inc. Message Board

dmesshian 90 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 24, 2015 1:44 PM Member since: Aug 19, 2011
  • Reply to

    NGVC: The "Hidden Gem"

    by dmesshian Jun 1, 2015 12:20 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian Jun 10, 2015 1:18 PM Flag

    This is a summary of what is actually known about NGVC to date!

  • Reply to

    NGVC "TROLL-Short-trader" Alert

    by dmesshian Jun 10, 2015 12:08 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian Jun 10, 2015 12:52 PM Flag

    Please note my esteemed fellow investors: this is the post with the comment the "NGVC-Troll" doesn't want you to read because it is the truth.
    * Note how he launches a flurry of a string of his repetitive, his dis-informative posts!
    This is the undisputed truth he is trying to suppress!

  • Reply to

    NGVC: The "Hidden Gem"

    by dmesshian Jun 1, 2015 12:20 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian Jun 9, 2015 11:45 AM Flag

    There is a big reason why most retail analysts following NGVC have been upgrading and pounding the table on one of the best investments and purest organic in the retail sector.
    - NGVC, today has a grand store opening celebration to Fargo, North Dakota, a metropolitan region on the border of Minnesota and North Dakota with 240,000 pop. -- a region starved for the presence of a "specialty organic retailer"!
    - 2 more store openings scheduled latter part of the month to close out this Qtr.
    - This is a sign of a healthy, thriving, and rapidly growing business for this unique and most successful niche player, that is on pace to become: the "organic grocer/retailer of choice to Mid-Town America".
    - It has a HUGE cost and competitive advantage in opening stores where; due to economics and financials constraints: the "BIG behemoths" cant!
    - Even Whole Foods is at a disadvantage, and is now planning to launch its "Value Brand" of smaller stores: to go operational in 2 YEARS???
    - NGVC will most likely be a $1+ Billion revenue operation by then; with a HUGE advantage to fend off anyh competitor.

  • dmesshian dmesshian Jun 9, 2015 10:20 AM Flag

    This will be proven to be a great bargain at these levels, like back in October when I bought NGVC stock trading at bargain basement levels at $17, and watched it doubled by Jan 31, 2015.
    In fact, NGVC is even stronger than back in October.
    - The company is on a streak of 3 quarters of sequential growth, and shows all signs of outperforming in the current qtr.

  • Reply to

    Another Upgrade

    by whisperingpines1962 Jun 5, 2015 1:17 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian Jun 8, 2015 10:00 AM Flag

    Friday's upgrade is just one of a slew of upgrades of NGVC coming from the various retail analysts following the stock -- most after NGVC posted it 3rd sequential Qtr of outstanding performance.
    This significant surge in analysts sentiment can be summarized in the following comments released by Zacks over the past week:
    - While NGVC has put up a historical EPS growth rate of 33.08%, investors should really focus on the projected growth. Here, NGVC is looking to grow at a rate of 13.05%, thoroughly crushing the industry average which calls for EPS growth of just 11.16 % in comparison.

    - ...consider how NGVC is positioned from a sales growth perspective. Natural Grocers is projected to see sales growth this year of 20.25%, crushing the industry average of 4.63% and further underscoring the "company’s title as a great growth stock".

    NGVC Earnings Estimate Revisions Moving in the Right Direction
    - If the metrics outlined above weren’t enough investors should also consider the positive trends that we are seeing on the analyst estimate revision front. Analysts have been raising their estimates for Natural Grocers lately, and now the earnings picture is looking a bit more favorable for the company.

    ** Over the past 60 days 3 EPS estimates have been revised higher compared to none lower, at least for the current year time frame. And the magnitude of these revisions has also been impressive, as the consensus estimate for the full year has surged from 66 cents per share to 68 cents per share today.

  • Reply to

    Another Upgrade

    by whisperingpines1962 Jun 5, 2015 1:17 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian Jun 5, 2015 2:22 PM Flag

    A company that rolls out 5 to 6 new store openings -- a record for NGVC -- in a quarter will grab the analysts attention!
    This is a clear sign of a healthy and thriving business at NGVC. In fact, you can bag this quarter -- which will represent a streak of 4 sequential quarters of sustained +21% top line growth.
    - NGVC is outperforming all Retail. What a growth engine!

  • Reply to

    **NGVC Trading In Oversold Territory

    by dmesshian Jun 4, 2015 2:30 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian Jun 5, 2015 1:03 PM Flag

    Please check my incisive analysis posted in midst of yesterday's "fog of war", if you will; from yesterday, where I confidently called yesterday's bottom in NGVC.
    - It was pure lessons from principles of Buffettology: "buy when others are fearful".
    - Note that NGVC is still in bargain territory based on Retail analysts projections!
    And I aided investors with tools -- clear headed reasoned opinion -- if they were seeking corroborating advice to their own research and DD in making investing decision about NGVC.
    - Now please compare the attached to that of: the Resident NGVC's mssg board TROLL", and you will see a significant difference in tone and substance -- my esteemed fellow investors!

  • Reply to

    **NGVC Trading In Oversold Territory

    by dmesshian Jun 4, 2015 2:30 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian Jun 5, 2015 2:00 AM Flag

    It seems like a breakout for this stock is possible.
    For this week NGVC has moved strongly higher on above average trading volume, however; on down days the volume tends to be way below avg. of its daily volume!
    - Selling volume appears to be drying up, while NGVC's base is consolidating.
    - This is appears to be a pattern that could precipitate a breakout. Stocks tend to breakout from strong consolidated bases, and NGVC has been in a protracted trading range for close to 4 weeks.
    - It is well worth paying attention to the charts based on the trading to see what they reveal, as well as, what they portend going forward.

  • Today presents a great buying opportunity for the prudent and enterprising investor -- as well as, value investors -- for a company with positive long term growth profile.
    The company has sequentially outperform the average growth rate of the food retail sector over the past 3 quarters with a YOY performance of +21% vs the avg of 4.6%! NGVC trades bounce off its 6 to 8 month low of $17 to a high of $35 on Jan. 31st, and has pulled back to this morning's low on below avg trading volume -- even though NGVC business has continued to outperform the sector.
    - During the current Qtr,, retail sector analyst continue to raise their yearly earnings from 0.66 to 0.68.
    - NGVC mgmt has re-affirmed their guidance for the remainder of its Fiscal Year.
    - Earnings are projected to outperform with the addition of 5 new store opening this Qtr., and the U.S. Economy is projected to rebound from its negative Q1 GDP growth of -0.7%. All signs are pointed UP for NGVC to thrive for the remainder of the year and beyond into 2016!.
    - NGVC PEG ration of 1.6, plus; given its YOY growth of 4 to 5 times the retail avg; not only represents, "great value" with a excellent margin of safety, that places the stock in the "extreme value stock zone"!
    *Note that several retail analysts following NGVC, (RBC Capital, Zacks, et.al), has ratings from: buy to outperform; with price targets from: $33 to $36!

    Good luck to all!

  • dmesshian dmesshian Jun 3, 2015 9:48 AM Flag

    DUDE! This is not a PROBLEM for NGVC?!
    It is an NGVC OPPORTUNITY !!!
    NGVC's CEO Kemper Isely, knows he can play this ace in the hole: that can be played at; the place an time of his own choosing, however; he doesn't have to -- at least -- not yet, eh?
    You need to think like an MBA.
    Please let this "Youth-Man" educate you:
    - All businesses perform "W.O.T.S up analysis", that is a moniker for:
    - Weakness, Opportunities, Threats, and Strengths
    - NGVC, growing 4 to 5 times the industry average {NGVC @ +21%,YOY -- Retail @ 4.6%}
    - Alcoholic beverages sale is an "Opportunity" NGVC has in it's arsenal to roll out at a point in the future, that can boost sales even higher -- perhaps, 5% to 8% higher -- at a future time, and place of their own choosing!
    - So, your problem is really an "Opportunity, plus a "potential STRENGTH"; when viewed from the "enterprising investor's" perspective

    *Hint: You should have gone way, WAY beyond Economics- 101, pal; 'cause your business knowledge is perhaps a yard wide, but nary an inch deep, eh -- however; I hope your retain your brief lesson in "W.O.T.S. up analysis"!

  • Reply to

    Economics 101

    by reversesplit Mar 20, 2015 11:38 AM
    dmesshian dmesshian Jun 3, 2015 9:10 AM Flag

    Dude, this is added proof that you aren't a serious investor!
    Have you ever read, or; studied one of the attached company releases?
    - A 10K, or 10Q publication from any company?
    - Or listened to a conf. call?
    - And of course visited any company's website, where you got that standard legalese -- full disclosure.

    So, you want the population of NGVC investors to be impressed by "trifles" that's commonplace to all business: 10Q, 10K, Annual Report, and website?

    **Can't you see how you are cementing "your image" -- on this mssg board -- as a: flatulent, pompous, despotic, and self-aggrandizing blow-hard, with an IQ somewhere in the neighborhood of a squid?

  • dmesshian dmesshian Jun 2, 2015 4:40 PM Flag

    Dude, this is added proof that you aren't a serious investor!
    Have you ever read, and studied: like, perform the standard, and necessary DD on an:
    - Annual Report?
    - A 10K, or 10Q publication from any company?
    - Or listened to a conf. call?
    - And of course visited any company's website, where you got that standard legalese -- full disclosure.
    So, you want the population of NGVC investors to be impressed by your "discovery of trifles" that are found on every business: 10Q, 10K, Annual Report, and website???

    **Can't you see how you are cementing "your image" -- on this mssg board -- as a: flatulent, pompous, despotic, and self-aggrandizing blow-hard, with an IQ somewhere in the neighborhood of a squid?

  • dmesshian dmesshian Jun 2, 2015 3:12 PM Flag

    Yeah, right!
    - Coming from a guy who never went beyond Economics-101, nor has yet, figured out that :MARKETING STRATEGY, and NOT Econ-101 is the dominant discipline in determining success in any part of the Retail Industry!
    - Retail is selling, and that falls under Marketing Strategy.
    - How can you say the top growing business concern in Retail is losing customers when NGVC sales and revenues are surging?
    - NGVC is running circles around -- outperforming -- the average YOY percentage growth rate of the Retail industry,
    - Industry YOY avg: 4.6%; NGVC +21%! Can you see the significance of the numbers? Plus, +33% YOY profitability!
    - Your credibility continues to slip into the abyss, pal.

  • Reply to

    NGVC: The "Hidden Gem"

    by dmesshian Jun 1, 2015 12:20 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian Jun 2, 2015 2:20 PM Flag

    Whisperingpines1962, I sure hope you have your: "SHORT-TRADER" shark repellant handy today because there is one ... well, perhaps 2, roaming the thread trying to spread distortionate information, if you will; to our esteemed investing brethren.

    He, or; they are trying to promote a 2 year trend with the attached: "Winners & Losers" comment: when they deliberately overlook the MORE significant 6 to 8 month trend from the lows of last October, where NGVC bottomed at $17/share.
    - NGVC rose to $35/share on Jan 31, 2015; that's an -- eye popping -- +100 % in 3 months!!!
    - Please tell me: how could any sapient investor miss that trend, and opt to sell a distracting 2 year trend???
    - Well, the answer is: only if he, or they; have an "extensive short position in NGVC stock", AND, he/they are trying to coddle his "vested, short play in NGVC stock" by: instilling F.E.A.R. and severe doubt in the minds of NGVC stockholders, and; potential NGVC investors: to either; sell out, stay away, and, or, "run for the hills!

    ** I would advise that, you put on your "Short-Trader" shark repellant because: the NGVC 6 MONTH TREND IS YOUR FRIEND -- NOT the 2 year "Red Herring", the various short traders on the thread are so feverishly trying sell!

  • Reply to

    NGVC: The "Hidden Gem"

    by dmesshian Jun 1, 2015 12:20 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian Jun 2, 2015 12:38 PM Flag

    .**Be wary: the Stock Market is defined as: "a forward looking discounting mechanism, that is; investors are always projecting into the future."
    - Sjohns expectations and forecasting seem to based on "looking in the rearview mirror". His whole investing thesis -- expressed over and over on this thread -- is based on past performance. Historically, the results of "your type of investing" is a formula for the malaise of under performance: "capital stagnation, and long term capital erosion". I would never, ever follow your investing counsel, nor advise anyone to do so.
    - Investors need to be keenly aware of the "violation of investing principles" in your comments!

    - In contrast the concept of the "hidden gem" has been attached to NGVC because the stock bottomed in the low $17 back in Oct. (circa: 6 - 7+ months ago); and the business has hit a new level of positive performance -- delivering 3 consecutive OUTSTANDING Qtrs in succession, and as analysts earnings estimate continues to rise for the current Qtr; NGVC is on track to turn a 4-bagger of outstanding Qtrs. in succession.
    - The resurgence of NGVC stock was observed in a near-term high of $35 back on Jan, 31, 2015 a bounce of over 100% -- off it's October lows of $17 -- do the math, pal.
    - You need to stop your: "distortionate dis-information", if you will -- attempting to mis-lead investors.
    - It is my contention that -- from a historical perspective -- "prudent and enterprising investors"; and, MR. Market will soon discover this awesome NGVC growth story.-- that has it "growing 4 to 5 times faster than the mean average" in the whole Food Retail Industry!
    - NGVC is currently trading at an outstanding, favorable PEG ratio of 1.68, when compared to the leaders in the Food Retail Industry -- even within the "Specialty Organic Retail Sector"!!!
    - NGVC current stock price can easily accommodate significant "PE expansion".

  • Reply to

    NGVC: The "Hidden Gem"

    by dmesshian Jun 1, 2015 12:20 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian Jun 1, 2015 7:55 PM Flag

    Focus on the fundamentals and you can't go wrong!

  • Reply to

    NGVC: The "Hidden Gem"

    by dmesshian Jun 1, 2015 12:20 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian Jun 1, 2015 3:59 PM Flag

    Today is proof that Mr. Market has finally discovered the "Hidden Gem" that is NGVC!
    And the rally is just beginning, whisperingpines1962.
    You were right all along!

  • Reply to

    NGVC: The "Hidden Gem"

    by dmesshian Jun 1, 2015 12:20 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian Jun 1, 2015 3:35 PM Flag

    As you know, it is the fundamentals of a company's business that should be the focus of the prudent investor, and not the the rantings of short traders with their short-sighted, and self-serving commentary.

  • dmesshian dmesshian Jun 1, 2015 3:20 PM Flag

    "The stock got obliterated in 2014 --- going from ~$45 to ~$17 -- because they screwed up..."
    Why are you always looking backwards?
    - Almost every company tend to stumble within 18 to 24 months following their IPO. We all remember the famous, or; infamous Facebook(FB), "face-plant" out of the gate in May of 21012!. FB created so many haters from investors who got "hosed" by that grand fiasco.
    - However, the great companies with outstanding mgmt teams: like NGVC and FB -- for example -- learn from the experience.
    - They pick themselves up off the carpet, learn the lesson, and quickly rebound!!!
    My point is: Don't be side-tracked -- my esteemed fellow NGVC investors -- by the anger of haters, spewing their "sour grapes" against one of the "most experienced and best mgmt teams" in the "Specialty Organic Retail Sector" today!
    Don't err by listening the "noise of haters" unload their baggage on your "prudent and intelligent investing decisions"!
    - Their sordid experience obviously left them damage and has nothing to do with: "your reality"!
    - Last I looked, earnings and profits, historically -- by definition -- are the primary drivers of stock prices and NGVC is one of great growth story that is currently trading a HUGE discount!

  • dmesshian dmesshian Jun 1, 2015 1:23 PM Flag

    sjohns & In. Muller, that is why we turn to the work of analysts to provide some "future perspective" -- forward guidance, if you will -- as to how the underpinnings of the business behind stocks like, NGVC is performing.
    As you see it's way, WAY superior to your: "flawed, misleading, and self-serving", if you will; backwards looking and ill informed commentary!

AGN
307.51+0.60(+0.20%)Jul 2 4:03 PMEDT