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Federal National Mortgage Association Message Board

dmesshian 21 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Aug 19, 2011
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  • dmesshian dmesshian 6 hours ago Flag

    Cdma, they have raise prices because of the poor quality of their acquisitions!
    They don't acquire growth companies, so the only way to show growth is to raise prices.
    In contrast Allergan restrict their acquisitions to bonafide growth businesses.
    AGN only acquires companies that adds to its strategic growth profile and Pyott never veers from the that formula.
    For example: Allergan's acquisitions of Inamed and Skin Medica where best of breed -- highest quality -- growth acquisition with unique profiles that were perfect fits to the AGN family.
    In contrast: VRX acquired B&L and Obagi Pharm., who were average profitable business, but were long term poor growth acquisitions that will never help with VRX's debt.
    Obagi wanted to be part of the AGN family -- it shopped itself to AGN, but its growth profile, and not being best of breed, didn't fit Pyott's HIGH standards! In contrast, SkinMedica was at the center of growth and innovation in the nutraceutical sector and fit AGN's standards like hand in glove.

    The point is: VRX would be huge drag on AGN's growth strategy. A shot marriage to VRX would be ill-advised!
    It will only be a lifeline for VRX -- providing a repository for its mountain of debt, at the expense of a disaster of gargantuan proportion for Allergan.

  • dmesshian dmesshian Oct 22, 2014 3:36 PM Flag

    Thanks for your timely post, cdma...
    You are onto a real issue here, and the reason why Ackman/Pearson are out filing "distracting and senseless lawsuits" against Pyott and the Allergan leadership.
    Perhaps they want to draw scrutiny and attention from the ruse they are trying to pull-off with their recent Q3 report.
    Buffettology, and Peter Lynch taught me to: "choose simplicity over complexity" and, never invest in a business you can't understand.
    I found VRX Q3 Report difficult to understand. I don't have a degree in financial accounting -- much less -- forensic accounting. It was filled with overly distracting footnotes that seem way out of place in a Qtr report. It made me imagine that, VRX Annual Report must approach the size of phonebook to accommodate all of the footnotes within.

    I would wager that, most of the investors who've plowed into VRX stock following the recent Q3 and CC, are probably, momo-players, who haven't done any serious review of the text of that Q3 report. They obviously read headlines from the financial media, and take VRX's basic numbers as fact, without doing any DD and, are betting that past performance will bail them out in the future.
    But we know better that, the VRX punchbowl has hit a snag with their choice to go war with AGN.

  • Reply to

    Go after that AGN Board ! Sue their pants off them

    by gthcgd Oct 21, 2014 7:07 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian Oct 22, 2014 11:15 AM Flag

    Seems like all the unbridled hubris -- the swag -- from the VRX camp has devolved into something resembling: "the whining of hyenas on the Serengeti"!
    This current tactic of wasting precious court time on a contentious -- tit for tat -- "scorch-earth war" is senseless. The VRX camp is over its head in a high stakes game that it is ill-equipped to play, and like scoundrels: they are now seeking refuge in the courts.
    Well, Pyott did not start, nor asked for this war, but he has managed to turn Ackman/Pearson-team into a pair of cackling geese.
    Next they will be screaming for their Mommies.
    Without a doubt, we have a perfect example of: "manly men"???

  • Reply to

    Has Ackman figured out…….

    by hohoo69 Oct 21, 2014 9:13 AM
    dmesshian dmesshian Oct 21, 2014 12:45 PM Flag

    I would contend that in Ackman's quieter moments -- away from the cameras -- he has!
    One just has to see the number of his hedge fund buddies with established positions in AGN stock -- who initially intended to support Ackman/VRX: have now become Pyott's supporters. Several have gone public, urging Pyott to avoid a VRX shotgun-marriage, like the plague.

    They were all converted by the "objective and incontrovertible evidence"; that AGN will soar with the eagles as a stand alone, or; with a more suitable partner: like SHIRE!
    Ackman knows it too! However; as we all know, he is sadly beholden to Pearson/VRX, who facilitated his 10% stake in Allergan -- let's just say -- via "the dark-side of investing".

    We only hear crickets emanating from Allergan's boardroom, however; Pyott has his opponents in check and has several ways to bring this war to a successful resolution.
    Any bets that Ackman holds onto his prized AGN shares when this deal implodes? He will be the most relieved of all the principles: because -- as "the ultimate insider" -- it has always been about the win-win proposition with him .
    It would send VRX packing, and immediately rid this mssg board of that annoying -- "Gollum-like creature" -- gotcha,blah,blah,blah, to the confines of the closest mental health institution!

  • dmesshian dmesshian Oct 20, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    Those guys will use every trick in book to make themselves look great. I am pleased to see that folks are totally on to it!
    The real knee-slapper was that last person on the CC. He was quite notable, by his obsequious and unprofessional demeanor; lauding all kinds of praises on -- you know who -- HIS Majesty Himself; then he took off on verbal tirade against all Allergan shareholders who have the audacity -- the hutzpa -- to call out VRX's, highly questionable, hostile takeover offer, that WOEFULLY undervalues Allergan.
    What really struck me was that last guy on the CC, sounded like I imagined: gotcha,blah,blah,blah would sound.
    Well, I am quite sure folks who tuned in heard it all.

  • dmesshian dmesshian Oct 20, 2014 12:46 AM Flag

    The process of producing 15% organic growth is going to be interesting since their Q2 forward guidance was for lowered expectations. But when the stock began to tank, and the spread began widening, VRX mgmt went out and acquired 2 or 3 companies during the Qtr. -- uncommon action for a company embroiled in a hostile takeover stand-off -- to run them through their special accounting process to produce, their definition, of 15% "organic growth".
    I can wait to see how they present it in the report and discuss it during the CC.

  • dmesshian dmesshian Oct 17, 2014 10:53 AM Flag

    I am not distracted by Ackman's latest -- spurious charges and limp noodle -- media campaign.
    This latest volley is like tossing a bone to the AGN team. He is certainly on the winning side of the play, in spite of his trading on non-public information to amass his 10% stake in AGN.
    This salvo is mere ostentation, meant to distract from the true state of internal affairs.

    This is a sign of "weakness, dissension and uncertainty" DEEP inside the Ackman/ VRX camp.
    It's an ostentatious show "strength and unity"-- where there isn't any.
    It's calculated and pretentious,, my esteemed investing brethren!
    AGN is in the "catbird seat" and certainly has the war playbook open with a multiplicity of options, to put an end to the protracted charade. The simplest and least expensive is to lean back, and assist the enemy into collapsing, or; imploding from within.

    There is a reason why Sir David Pyott is ranked way higher than Pearson on HBR's list of top CEOs.
    This imbroglio is far from over 'cause the uber-devious opposition is still breathing and "the Allergan brain-thrust" should thread cautiously, and manage the situation all the way to a successful conclusion.
    Bear in the mind that: the last breath of an enemy is sometimes the toughest one.
    Pyott will now be evaluated on the efficiency of his end-game -- the most difficult part of any guerre...

  • dmesshian dmesshian Oct 16, 2014 12:55 PM Flag

    True that, Farmer.
    I feel privileged to peer into the vacuous mind of Pearson's top minion!

  • dmesshian dmesshian Oct 16, 2014 11:18 AM Flag

    Hey, gotcha-blah,blah,blah, why don't you tell VRX -- over-weighted Hedgies -- to stop "bucket-shopping" VRX stock, and let it find its "free and true trading / floating value" in this volatile Market, eh?
    Heck, Allergan stock trades without all those artificial shenanigans.

    What? Is there too much fear and consternation in the your camp, that if VRX-stock broke below $100, it might be too much "heavy lifting" to make it back above the century mark?
    **What's yawls' deal, pal, with the "bucket-shopping" to artificially "prop up" VRX-stock, eh?
    Allergan went into oversold yesterday, and early today -- creating much opportunity for bargain shopping investors!
    I sure wish the hedgies would've allowed VRX-stock to float freely, to see if retail investor would've taken a sniff, eh?

  • dmesshian dmesshian Oct 14, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    Cdma... you've please note that analysis is a pure analysis of AGN as a stand alone:
    "So if you are looking for a fast growing stock that is still seeing plenty of opportunities on the horizon, make sure to consider AGN. Not only does it have double digit earnings growth prospect, but its impressive Zacks Rank suggests that analysts believe better days are ahead for AGN as well."

    There is ZERO mention of Ackman/Perason-VRX! And that absence of any mention of the hostile-takeover from the analysis leaves investors to figure it out for themselves, what the analysts and stock rating agency thinks of the distracting "sham-circus created by the poseurs".

    Allergan is a uniquely positioned -- self-sustaining -- large cap growth stock, that creates its own intrinsic-organic growth. The hostile take-over by Ackman/Perason-VRX will only blunt and derail this shinning star.
    AGN needs no: "Pearson slash and burn cost cutting strategy", nor its $17+ BILLION DEBT!!!
    These "Pearson/VRX measures" will only: 1) - reduce AGN's "top-line growth", and 2) - reduce AGN's competitiveness.


  • Reply to

    Ackman wins

    by gthcgd Oct 7, 2014 3:59 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian Oct 13, 2014 3:01 PM Flag

    Apparently investors in the EU are well aware of the "Ackman/Pearson-VRX quid pro quo" that allowed him to amass his 10% stake in Allergan stock, and the ensuing Allergan's actions, appropriately questioning the legality and propriety of this front-running tactic, that would have landed your average retail investor in the BIG HOUSE.

  • Reply to

    VRX will again up the bid to 200.

    by cdma_is_obsoletess Oct 10, 2014 7:50 AM
    dmesshian dmesshian Oct 10, 2014 1:18 PM Flag

    Ackman/Pearson: "burn the boats" strategy will be seen as a great folly 'cause it left them without a graceful exit strategy.
    They've severely underestimated Pyott.
    Pyott appears to be an adroit practitioner of: "The Art of War"!

  • dmesshian dmesshian Oct 10, 2014 12:43 PM Flag

    Here is my take on the status quo cdma:
    gthc...blah,blah,blah, is indeed on the wrong side of the play. He should've followed his hero: Ackman -- whose 10% play on AGN has always been the smarter money play in the deal.
    Ackman's play puts him and his Pershing Sq. shareholders in the Catbird seat, and you can bet that: all his media talk is just posturing.

    You've got to believe that Ackman, is having SERIOUS second thoughts over his partnership, and support of VRX following Allergan's revised numbers from yesterday.
    AGN -- as a stand alone -- will turn out to be the top play of his career!!!

    It doesn't take a genius to realize that AGN is:
    1) a way, WAY less RISKIER play as a stand alone and;
    2) AGN has greater, GREATER upside than it ever could under the much riskier VRX.
    It is counter-intuitive -- a no brainer -- that: any self respecting, intelligent investor would take on GREATER RISK with a lesser MARGIN OF SAFETY for a lesser return.
    It's illogical!
    CONCLUSION: Allergan(AGN) is the SUPERIOR investment as a stand alone. It is obvious that, Sir David Pyott is the SUPERIOR CEO, and his experienced BOD is best left intact 'cause: why break up a championship team that will deliver for the next 5 to 10 years?

  • Allergan (NYSE:AGN) expects Q3 non-GAAP EPS to be $1.76 - 1.78 versus guidance of $1.44 - 1.47. Net sales growth will be greater than 17%.
    Full-year expectations: non-GAAP EPS: $6.20 - 6.25; net product sales increase: 14 - 15%.
    2015 EPS guidance: ~$8.60.
    2016 EPS guidance: ~$10.25.
    This recent update from AGN is incontrovertible proof that VRX can't really afford to pay the full valued price for Allergan that would be satisfactory to AGN shareholders.

    As a stand alone business concern, these numbers show that Allergan stock could be trading in the vicinity of $265 to $300 over the next 12 to 18 months.
    Allergan's Board has been right on the money -- all along -- for continuously repeating that VRX's offer: woefully inadequate and that it undervalues AGN.
    Sir David Pyott has proven to be the only sapient adult in this imbroglio. He has shown that he is: The superior CEO with the idealic team, that has the proper strategy, to protect, and deliver the best value to AGN shareholders for the next 5 to 10 years.
    Ackman-Pearson are poseurs. Allergan is Ackman's first investment in the drug/biotech/aesthetic sector, and he came about it in dubious fashion -- with looming charges of insider trading.
    Pearson is a hedge fund manager posing as a drug industry insider. His high acquisitive, accounting roll-up strategy, that amasses truckloads of debt, says it all about his real business acumen, and the deficiencies in his skill set to manage one of the most complex-hybrid companies -- AGN -- on Planet Earth.

  • dmesshian dmesshian Oct 8, 2014 6:12 PM Flag

    There is a fabulous options play for experienced, and knowledgeable investors that could "$pike your eggnog over the holiday season.
    I predict that when the hostile VRX - AGN take-over battle unravels, there will be a race by hedges -- propping up this "roll-up" scheme -- to the exit doors. A winning options play on the cost of losing on the BIG stage!

    The resulting decline could be a huge bonanza for a fairly modest investment in this play. However, this is not a play for the risk averse, nor for neophyte investors.
    This hostile bid has really over-exposed VRX to the light of day, and the severe scrutiny -- with forensic accounting of its Qtr reports, and the like -- has forever changed public perception of its business, and corporate culture -- not to mention -- questions over the strategic sustainability of its highly acquisitive business model.

    Frankly, I am amazed at how Pyott has his opposition in a responsive mode to his probing jabs. Heck, he hasn't even shown his uppercut, nor delivered a full right to chin... yet!
    From the looks of it, in this battle of HUGE egos -- the hostile actions on the VRX side -- perhaps, has ensured that there will be no face saving exit for either side in this titanic heavyweight match...

  • Reply to

    Ackman wins

    by gthcgd Oct 7, 2014 3:59 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian Oct 7, 2014 5:12 PM Flag

    Dude, you need to quit deluding yourself.
    The widening spread is Mr. Market confirmation of what AGN has been saying all along, that the current VRX's offer woefully undervalues AGN.
    "Pyott and his entrenched cronies" has only delivered for shareholders, and have been the greatest stewards of Allergan Inc., during Pyott's reign as CEO.
    AGN's organic growth was earned the proper way. The only "organic growth" coming out of VRX is its: ((((( $17+ Billion DEBT )))))
    Your attached post proves that you are an ignoramus prattler, and an Ackman-Pearson sycophant!
    Besides, your nonsensical posts are as frequent, and incoherent: as Pearson's VRX senseless -- debt accumulating -- acquisition strategy.
    Would you run your personal finances like VRX runs its balance sheet?

  • dmesshian dmesshian Oct 2, 2014 3:58 PM Flag

    LJ, the end of Qtr, media blitz seem to have been an orchestrated ruse to sucker investors to buy the the stock. they put out a slew of news reports, and opinion to generate a positive buzz. It was coupled by $Billionaire hedge funds buying of the stock to get it above the "Mendoza Line" for the year for window dressing.
    It was all a bout the end of 2rd Qtr. performance snap shot for hedge funds quarterly letter to shareholders.
    Small retail investors didn't bite the bait, so look for the stock to slowly decline to its yearly lows from here; now that the quarter ended.
    Folks are gonna wait and see the third qtr report and how the AGN Forensic Accountants, filter out the nonsense reporting you usually get from those insider guys.
    Look for smoke and mirrors in how they produce their promised 15 percent growth.
    Keep your eyes wide open so as to not fall for any scheme.

  • Reply to

    VRX is a Ponzi Scheme

    by benarnold831 Sep 23, 2014 4:54 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian Sep 25, 2014 5:39 PM Flag

    Ben, Sam Waksal & Martha Stewart did the perp walk, and both did hard time -- in prison -- over an insider stock tip involving ImClone 13 years ago -- that appears to mirror, the behind the scene action of the VRX take-over bid for AGN.
    Allergan charge of insider trading has tons of merit.

  • Reply to

    Strong statement from Valueact

    by gthcgd Sep 25, 2014 10:09 AM
    dmesshian dmesshian Sep 25, 2014 5:19 PM Flag

    That's just another one of those multi-billion dollar hedge-fund and billionaires bucket-shopping VRX stock to keep their hopes for the AGN -hostile deal alive.
    Retail investors aren't welcome to this party. You need to a member of the billionaires club. The only way for the li'l guy to make money in VRX is to short it -- options out 2 to 3 months play a major VRX-stock collapse when the Allergan hostile deal goes bust; is the only play for the retail investor.

  • Reply to

    AGN ready to run, set up for next leg up

    by borgati4 Aug 21, 2014 2:44 PM
    dmesshian dmesshian Aug 21, 2014 6:29 PM Flag

    Great Point!
    It appears that the "über-sexy beauty queen (AGN)", with the promising starlet future, will finally succeed in rebuffing the relentless overtures of the "homely suitor (VRX)", with its loquacious and disruptive wing-man.
    The spread is beginning to widen and might become a chasm in a week, or two. This fact -- by itself -- could cause the suitors to fold their tent and run for the hills real soon!


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