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Dynavax Technologies Corporation Message Board

dnb2020 16 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 15, 2014 3:20 PM Member since: Apr 16, 1999
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  • It was one giant flush in DVAX's pps....now I am relieved!......leave it to DVAX to let a heavily institutional stock get creamed with no news.....at least all those stop losses were taken out by the retailers....lite volume day....a big yawn....Thanks again Steady Eddie! Our own version of Christmas Vacation....no bonuses or inground pools....just more hapless management.....probably no one in the office anyway....maybe next year santa...lol

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Crude Oil is crashing....the DOW is down over "2 large" and people are buying DVAX like its a short squeeze ....volume is way up and almost double.....this $16.26 pps bothers me since it still looks like $1.62 pps when I analyze this stock.....similar to the misperception that Raven was complaining about earlier $35pps...yeah, not really $35 when you look at it from the way you analyzed it earlier this year.....

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Some $35 stocks.......

    by theblackraven08 Dec 12, 2014 9:36 AM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Dec 12, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    Hey Raven, DVAX is one of my all-time "loved and hated" stocks of all time too,.....but your list of $35 pps stocks have market caps of $2B and up.....the little train that could DVAX at $35 pps is less than $1B.....apples to oranges comparison....$35 is very realistic

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    New Price Target

    by dvaxbeowulf Dec 11, 2014 12:40 PM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Dec 11, 2014 1:43 PM Flag

    Directionally correct but Q316 seems way too far out when other biotechs explode way before the events occur....stock prices are ahead of the actual events...$35 for me will happen Q215...it is only $935M market cap and the entire enchalata and storyline will be known....safety and effectiveness....I also expect Steady Eddie to introduce expanded uses for the new adjuvant....then you will really see what unlocking shareholder value really means....I am conservative in the sense I rate the stock a hold...I will not purchase one additional share until they "show me" instead of "tell me" of their success....you know twice a bridesmaid...yada yada yada....

    Sentiment: Hold

  • I know that DVAX was asked to run a larger and longer period trial at VRBPAC last time due to the untested use of a new adjuvant.....without the new adjuvant the vaccine would have likely garnered support....Daum was impressed but not convinced of the safety profile....leading to a NARROW vote rejection on safety......now we are running the larger and longer test and some may say that it isn't large enough but let's assume it is or DVAX will be gone......why can't they file for the new VRBPAC meeting shortly and obtain pre-approval to agree to continue monitoring for the full year.....the issue for Daum was the small number and race of the vaccinated sample and to a lesser degree the full 12 months....I think DVAX will approach it again in the same manner since by the time the VRBPAC meeting is scheduled they will have current data to support close to the 12 month period...I see DVAX filing in early Q215 despite any other dates previously inferred or stated....correct? agree?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    ctic I like your enthusiasm...

    by jdoobie00 Dec 3, 2014 1:46 AM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Dec 3, 2014 11:29 AM Flag

    Okay...a fair question about risk mitigation strategies based on the last VRBPAC meeting....the current price is $1.59 (pre split) and I do expect that the price will rise to $6 before the next VRBPAC meeting....that's about how much it did last time.....if your basis is over $6 then buy some insurance with puts/calls and while you are limiting your upside you won't get crushed either.....for the majority of other retailers they will be in the money....sell enough to use "house money" and let her ride.....I don't think Daum can use the too small a sample again since the company addressed that....I think he can raise fear for smaller but important future concerns like how does this vaccine work with other children vaccines given at the same time.....but we are not seeking approval for that targeted group YET.....DVAX gets approved without an SAE....Daum did his job and delayed it as much as his good reputation dare to push this issue imho

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    ctic I like your enthusiasm...

    by jdoobie00 Dec 3, 2014 1:46 AM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Dec 3, 2014 9:32 AM Flag

    Neut.....DVAX has never been higher than $9pps (pre split basis) based on the max timeline for the stock chart....that puts every single buyer purchasing under $1B market cap.....DVAX will easily be billions over $1B market cap if Heplisav gets commercialized....only those who sold locked in losses....a long and painful underwater stock? yes........a loser stock? No, not likely......and just like the last meeting the stock price was very strong and rising pps into that date....it will happen again......

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    ctic I like your enthusiasm...

    by jdoobie00 Dec 3, 2014 1:46 AM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Dec 3, 2014 8:47 AM Flag

    So doobie.....I guess by your post that you think CTIC has paid more than DVAX will EVER be worth?....interesting......I guess that you are the new short on our board.....good luck holding DVAX down now....oh, there will be bad investing days for this stock but I am certain that unless a "black swan" event occurs during the safety testing that you will be the one with the permanent stock loss.....my prediction is that DVAX will never see anything below $20pps starting January 1, 2015 ever again.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    15 Stocks, all under $15......

    by theblackraven08 Dec 1, 2014 8:37 PM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Dec 2, 2014 9:24 AM Flag

    "Destruct sequence 1, code 1-1 A."
    "Destruct sequence 2, code 1-1 A-2B."
    "Destruct sequence 3, code 1 B-2B-3."

    Computer: "Destruct sequence completed and engaged. Awaiting final code for (time interval) countdown."

    Commanding officer: "Code zero zero zero. Destruct. Zero."

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Sell, Moritmer, Sell!!!

    by dnb2020 Nov 26, 2014 11:55 AM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Nov 26, 2014 6:15 PM Flag

    5 thumbs down? really?....I have owned this stock for probably 4 years now (and yes there are some here that have been around longer)....I still own this stock but I was just pointing out that it has been a long and rough road...even Raven has turned from long to hold/short (and Happy Turkey Day to you too Raven)...my biggest concern is how this stock is sooo manipulated with all this institutional ownership...I think Cramer likes this stock but can't recommend it until there are concrete activities that show a success rather than speculation....In the long run I will make money or lose it all but I truly believe the returns need to be in nose bleed territory or the lost opportunity cost for this money will never be realized...and that is unfortunate knowing that I believed in what the business model was trying to achieve.....approval, commercialization and hold the stock should be very very profitable....just not for another year here on the Island of Misfit Toys....where is Santa when you need him to revitalize this stock?...good luck trading and/or holding

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Its up 58 cents....time to lock in profits before the orange juice market crashes.....even Jim Cramer says you're playing with fire.....who cares if the safety trial is a large scale of exactly the same thing we did years ago....we could have sold this stock, bought BABA at 80 and sold BABA at 120 in 2 weeks and still bought this back at the same price! I want some instant gratification from my DVAX...58 cents will have to do!!!!!!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    DVAX going to $200 in 15 months

    by dnb2020 Nov 11, 2014 8:51 AM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Nov 12, 2014 6:57 PM Flag

    I respect whatever valuation method you want to use....it is just not mine....companies like dvax are naturally conservative and take baby steps, especially when there are SEC restrictions and consequences....I try to see the market at hand and my valuations are based on the potential...not where they will start and achieve within the first year of commercialization....my point is that stocks don't look at value for the retroactive or near term...they look at the future potential and the stock prices get there way faster than the actual sales...good luck to you

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    DVAX going to $200 in 15 months

    by dnb2020 Nov 11, 2014 8:51 AM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Nov 12, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    My estimates are from an independent source that Hep B vaccines will generate $1.4B annually so DVAX will be closer to $800M annual sales, excluding new uses and sources of the vaccine adjuvant

    GlobalData estimated the global hepatitis b vaccines market at $997.0m in 2010, and forecast it to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.1% for the next eight years, to reach $1,376.1m by 2018. During the period 2005–2010, the market grew at a CAGR of 6.7%, from $720.5m to $997.0. The growth is primarily attributed to the increase in the vaccination rate and coverage among different age groups, as a result of government programs and increased public awareness. The market would also be driven by birth population growth and the need for therapeutic vaccines in cases of cirrhosis, liver disease, and primary liver cancer (hepatocellular carcinoma or HCC).

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    DVAX going to $200 in 15 months

    by dnb2020 Nov 11, 2014 8:51 AM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Nov 11, 2014 11:28 AM Flag

    Hey CTIC I agree that China was not in my forecasts....I was measuring it based solely on the open markets to demonstrate that $200 (split adjusted) is not really unreasonable if the vaccine is approved and we have a successful product launch....there are questions but that exists for all companies and not just DVAX....China is a little difficult to forecast....I see lots of people that will need the product and I also see lots of government joint ownership....doing business in China without the gov't taking its share is impossible....overall it still would be wildly profitable to DVAX though.....what we do know is this based on the last round before VERBAC....the price will rise like crazy anticipating the approval....Adam Fuerstein and Jim Cramer will get lots of questions about its success....Cramer loved this stock the first time around and got burned by the delay......but he will come around again for a second time based on logic that the company did lots more testing to support its original claim which proved correct but cursed by Daum's influence with the committee...we were literally one small step to full approval.....

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    DVAX going to $200 in 15 months

    by dnb2020 Nov 11, 2014 8:51 AM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Nov 11, 2014 10:34 AM Flag

    I see you are a skeptic about the price....why is that?....it is totally reasonable that a stock that receives approval for a new vaccine to prevent Hep B faster and better than the current biologic should capture a large share of the market....annual sales projections for just the base population was $600-800M and the expanded use for diabetes etc will bring in an even greater annual revenue.....our current market cap is $300M at $16 pps.....DVAX like most biotechs will be a ten bagger and that easily translates to $160 pps.....Merck/other giants will look to acquire the company and it should sell at a premium....$200 pps is not that far fetched....and many of the original longs, including me, don't mind waiting a bit more since we do see the end game as a win and profitable

    Sentiment: Hold

  • I guess the split price adjustment will require me to revise my price target....$200 pps instead of $20.....no matter.....it still represents the same market cap.....its like why does someone pay $100,000 per share for Berskshire? because they never split....DVAX took their "pill" yesterday and now the big float and low price duldrums are behind them.....great news and we rocket.....not too many shares out there for a company expected to generate approx $1B in annual revenue starting in 15-20 months

    Sentiment: Hold

DVAX
15.12+0.780(+5.44%)Dec 17 4:00 PMEST

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