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Dynavax Technologies Corporation Message Board

dnb2020 9 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Apr 16, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Sell, Moritmer, Sell!!!

    by dnb2020 15 hours ago

    5 thumbs down? really?....I have owned this stock for probably 4 years now (and yes there are some here that have been around longer)....I still own this stock but I was just pointing out that it has been a long and rough road...even Raven has turned from long to hold/short (and Happy Turkey Day to you too Raven)...my biggest concern is how this stock is sooo manipulated with all this institutional ownership...I think Cramer likes this stock but can't recommend it until there are concrete activities that show a success rather than speculation....In the long run I will make money or lose it all but I truly believe the returns need to be in nose bleed territory or the lost opportunity cost for this money will never be realized...and that is unfortunate knowing that I believed in what the business model was trying to achieve.....approval, commercialization and hold the stock should be very very profitable....just not for another year here on the Island of Misfit Toys....where is Santa when you need him to revitalize this stock?...good luck trading and/or holding

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Its up 58 cents....time to lock in profits before the orange juice market crashes.....even Jim Cramer says you're playing with fire.....who cares if the safety trial is a large scale of exactly the same thing we did years ago....we could have sold this stock, bought BABA at 80 and sold BABA at 120 in 2 weeks and still bought this back at the same price! I want some instant gratification from my DVAX...58 cents will have to do!!!!!!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    DVAX going to $200 in 15 months

    by dnb2020 Nov 11, 2014 8:51 AM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Nov 12, 2014 6:57 PM Flag

    I respect whatever valuation method you want to use....it is just not mine....companies like dvax are naturally conservative and take baby steps, especially when there are SEC restrictions and consequences....I try to see the market at hand and my valuations are based on the potential...not where they will start and achieve within the first year of commercialization....my point is that stocks don't look at value for the retroactive or near term...they look at the future potential and the stock prices get there way faster than the actual sales...good luck to you

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    DVAX going to $200 in 15 months

    by dnb2020 Nov 11, 2014 8:51 AM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Nov 12, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    My estimates are from an independent source that Hep B vaccines will generate $1.4B annually so DVAX will be closer to $800M annual sales, excluding new uses and sources of the vaccine adjuvant

    GlobalData estimated the global hepatitis b vaccines market at $997.0m in 2010, and forecast it to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.1% for the next eight years, to reach $1,376.1m by 2018. During the period 2005–2010, the market grew at a CAGR of 6.7%, from $720.5m to $997.0. The growth is primarily attributed to the increase in the vaccination rate and coverage among different age groups, as a result of government programs and increased public awareness. The market would also be driven by birth population growth and the need for therapeutic vaccines in cases of cirrhosis, liver disease, and primary liver cancer (hepatocellular carcinoma or HCC).

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    DVAX going to $200 in 15 months

    by dnb2020 Nov 11, 2014 8:51 AM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Nov 11, 2014 11:28 AM Flag

    Hey CTIC I agree that China was not in my forecasts....I was measuring it based solely on the open markets to demonstrate that $200 (split adjusted) is not really unreasonable if the vaccine is approved and we have a successful product launch....there are questions but that exists for all companies and not just DVAX....China is a little difficult to forecast....I see lots of people that will need the product and I also see lots of government joint ownership....doing business in China without the gov't taking its share is impossible....overall it still would be wildly profitable to DVAX though.....what we do know is this based on the last round before VERBAC....the price will rise like crazy anticipating the approval....Adam Fuerstein and Jim Cramer will get lots of questions about its success....Cramer loved this stock the first time around and got burned by the delay......but he will come around again for a second time based on logic that the company did lots more testing to support its original claim which proved correct but cursed by Daum's influence with the committee...we were literally one small step to full approval.....

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    DVAX going to $200 in 15 months

    by dnb2020 Nov 11, 2014 8:51 AM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Nov 11, 2014 10:34 AM Flag

    I see you are a skeptic about the price....why is that?....it is totally reasonable that a stock that receives approval for a new vaccine to prevent Hep B faster and better than the current biologic should capture a large share of the market....annual sales projections for just the base population was $600-800M and the expanded use for diabetes etc will bring in an even greater annual revenue.....our current market cap is $300M at $16 pps.....DVAX like most biotechs will be a ten bagger and that easily translates to $160 pps.....Merck/other giants will look to acquire the company and it should sell at a premium....$200 pps is not that far fetched....and many of the original longs, including me, don't mind waiting a bit more since we do see the end game as a win and profitable

    Sentiment: Hold

  • I guess the split price adjustment will require me to revise my price target....$200 pps instead of $20.....no matter.....it still represents the same market cap.....its like why does someone pay $100,000 per share for Berskshire? because they never split....DVAX took their "pill" yesterday and now the big float and low price duldrums are behind them.....great news and we rocket.....not too many shares out there for a company expected to generate approx $1B in annual revenue starting in 15-20 months

    Sentiment: Hold

  • There will be lots of time to buy dvax back at a lower price before any stock price climb....we have at least 6 months...after all there are ZERO press releases......I was away for 6+ months the first time and it looks like we are still in hibernation mode.....long term I still see significant upside....I am terrible at timing the market so I convinced myself to hold pat!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • okay so I appreciate Raven, CTIC and Outboard's (and others!) pro and con views......but now where do we go?.....what are the key milestone dates? why doesn't the firms that supported DVAX as an investment including Cramer start to mention DVAX?...I know we have some time before things are finalized for the second/third????time but Wall Street always looks ahead 18 months and starts its grind higher or lower.....there are risks to investing and DVAX is not any different.....my view is that I am long until DVAX proves me wrong.....DVAX prior management tried really hard to do that for me....does Grey try and top that? what single thing can DVAX communicate to the stock market right now that will light this candle short of FDA recommendation for approval?

    Sentiment: Hold

DVAX
15.10+0.72(+5.01%)Nov 26 4:00 PMEST

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