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Dynavax Technologies Corporation Message Board

dnb2020 10 posts  |  Last Activity: May 4, 2016 4:35 PM Member since: Apr 16, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Yo Jimmy and Dvaxtruth

    by dnb2020 May 4, 2016 4:25 PM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 May 4, 2016 4:35 PM Flag

    Finally for you nonbelievers and thumbs downers, the following biotechs were all down today....mdco 5%, axdx 4.4%, rare 4%, bmrn 3.5%, exel 7.4% and so on....take a look at the biotech start ups and many got killed today again....and I don't short DVAX....I like to buy low and sell high.....recently I thought about buying DVAX at 22.50 vs SQQQ at 17.42 and went with shorting the NAZ...if I bought DVAX then today I would have been down $11K instead of $2.5K up...small potatoes for some of you but "luckily" I chose the other option for once...not sure I will buy back into dvax yet...I have to think harder about it because of that trust issue I have with them

    Sentiment: Hold

  • I am not a technical trader but it can be a useful secondary tool.....what I am concerned about is that the biotech sector is in a bear market and DVAX itself has once again botched up the Phase III approach....to see the note that the additional info is a major amendment just says that the management put its best spin on the data to get it approved.....the FDA is not filled with all idiots....and why didn't they monitor and ask for the data in that format in the first place.....I see too many warning signs....and it didn't help that a major brokerage firm dropped its FMV to $19!.....in a bear market everything goes at least 50% off and I do expect to see DVAX at $10-11 unless the sector bear rotation ends soon.....not today or tomorrow....but before June 30....without the bear and the shaky data and mistrust I have for management we are probably about where we should be now.....very disappointing company.....what does your technical analysis say in layman terms that DVAX should hit for its low?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    DVAX is in a lose-lose situation

    by dnb2020 Apr 8, 2016 10:38 AM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Apr 8, 2016 11:32 AM Flag

    one more clarification....I do think DVAX can go higher from here.....I am just uncertain what that ceiling is at the moment

    Sentiment: Hold

  • So far the DVAX story by Motley Fools is getting better and better and approval is almost certain....now they reintroduce major downside risks such as further dilution and a cap on the sales revenue of $775M? I know some of you will value the sales at 5Xs for market cap but not me unfortunately....so the Fools are saying you will be right on the DVAX approval but wrong on the DVAX share price due to dilution and not a blockbuster revenue prediction....ughhh

    Sentiment: Hold

  • dnb2020 dnb2020 Mar 24, 2016 8:49 AM Flag

    DT

    DVAX pps doesn't concern me too much...it is at about the right amount with so many unknowns...brighter days ahead for sure....what really concerns me is the general market....oil is still over-produced, the NAZ and S&P are nearly at all time highs...the presidential race is a joke....it is the external to DVAX that is scary to dvax pps and let's hope the CEO hasn't missed a "black swan" event like the last VRBPAC meeting...Daum came out of left field with queries they didn't address and the lead scientist couldn't answer....seems like they thought they did their homework only to be schooled by their peers...at this pps it is a hold and in a year i am "hoping" to be much happier financially by holding

    Sentiment: Hold

  • What is going on with DVAX price action? It is trading poorly for a company ready to commercialize. I am not bashing....I just want to know if we missed anything that the institutions know or strongly suspect? Meanwhile the markets are rocking

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    DVAX Valuation

    by dnb2020 Mar 16, 2016 1:23 PM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Mar 16, 2016 3:04 PM Flag

    Vette,

    You have been on the DVAX board a long time so I will give you a pass and not be rude...I will only point out that your valuation method of PSR is long gone with the NASDAQ crash of 1999/2000......I am an investor with my primary shares and I value my stocks on a profit basis or forecasted profit basis (when biotechs have no earnings) and I discount the calculated market cap back to present value depending on how long it will take to get to profit....the current DVAX pps says PSR isn't anywhere near your forecast and likely won't be

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    DVAX Valuation

    by dnb2020 Mar 16, 2016 1:23 PM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Mar 16, 2016 2:54 PM Flag

    Hey Neut,
    good point and I didn't even challenge the 100% of any market or the continued dilution of DVAX shares which always surprises us when there is any good price action....DVAX prints and dilutes like we do the rinse and repeat....DVAX reverse split and then prints more shares as they need them....sad they don't get the price appreciation comes from treating the shareholders properly too!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    DVAX Valuation

    by dnb2020 Mar 16, 2016 1:23 PM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Mar 16, 2016 2:30 PM Flag

    I started with the assumption that DVAX will get 100% of the current Hep B market of $700M and that DVAX will incur significant costs to commercialize including the bloated salaries of DVAX officers, royalties paid and marketing etc...and let's not forget taxes...the maximum net profit is $225M/yr. and at 5 times the cash flow I get to approx. $1.2B

    I am not assuming a buyout or an unusual pps spike like you are I guess.....and your DNDN example is a bad one since the company made a product that works to extend the cancer life but no one bought it after the first year and they went bankrupt/sold the assets...if you didn't sell at the sweet spike pps then you lost your shirt....the only winners in a sale of DVAX will be GSK and DVAX officers who entered the deal...stockholders like us will get coal in our stockings

    Sentiment: Hold

  • dnb2020 by dnb2020 Mar 16, 2016 1:23 PM Flag

    DVAX valuation under today's assumed likely approval for Heplisav is maxing out in my computation at $1.2B or about a double from here....but you are seeing this stock pps for two primary reasons 1) the biotech industry is weak/cyclical etc and 2) the S&P and NAZ are near record highs.....all the speculative junk like DVAX is already selling off and then the rest of the blue chips will follow......this assumes that the government doesn't issue more quantitative easing money and lets the market adjust naturally......

    You as an investor see the market up but your gut instinct says it should be down and down hard....but it doesn't fall and naturally you don't buy into a DVAX or any biotech long term run while the market is still manipulated and DVAX at $600M market cap is about where it was the last time we sought approval....I can't buy in for more DVAX until there is blood in the streets at $13 pps.....longer term (12-18 months and after approval) I can see $30pps sustained

    Sentiment: Hold

DVAX
15.850.00(0.00%)May 27 4:00 PMEDT