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Dynavax Technologies Corporation Message Board

dnb2020 25 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 22, 2015 10:10 AM Member since: Apr 16, 1999
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  • Reply to

    next catalyst

    by stevenwilsonhudson Jan 21, 2015 5:26 PM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Jan 22, 2015 10:10 AM Flag

    okay so i read that goldman is expecting a big market pullback at the end of Q1 so I will say DVAX trades with market and that would put the strike price at $15.50pps and then with the safety news released the stock will then jump to the target (per yahoo) of $34 in one day on a low float stock just like the others biotechs did in january for more than a 100% gain on day volume of more than 35M shares traded

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    next catalyst

    by stevenwilsonhudson Jan 21, 2015 5:26 PM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Jan 21, 2015 10:19 PM Flag

    not sure CTIC....this is a low float stock....some good news for other biotechs the past month caught on fire and the prices jumped to the target on the same day before noon! DVAX news will likely behave the same and stay relatively high....now the only query is when (timing)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • I am now available to buy back into DVAX after locking in some losses and day trading ISIS with the cash to get some serious beer money...take a look at that chart and you'll see what I mean....that stock swings $3-4 pretty darn often.....now with DVAX I am re-examing a long term position and I know lots from being invested for years.....my only problem is to evaluate the size of the investment since DVAX is sort of a one trick pony right now as compared to ISIS with more than 20 potential drug candidates......I will probably wait for a bigger pullback in the overall market which drags down DVAX and then hold up through the VRBPAC meeting announcement for a nice chunk of a run up.....

    Sentiment: Buy

  • In the headline news it says Cramer will be talking to the CEO and that the gains should be much higher right now....except the overall market sell-off held us back a bit....tomorrow morning it will be glorious...

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Merry Christmas to DVAX shareholders!

    by dvaxbeowulf Dec 25, 2014 6:55 PM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Dec 25, 2014 7:05 PM Flag

    Merry XMAS Beo.....I wanted to get your view on one last topic....the all-time stock market highs....if there is no news and the market pulls back after new year (make this assumption) since they are at highs how much of any decrease will impact DVAX? a little, same or more? I hope many of us are considering macro stock market trends too and not just DVAX....a great news event for dvax will send this soaring at least short term and maybe longer......I bought my ISIS this week but may buy some dvax again.....its hard to break away when some pending news is imminent

  • Reply to

    My Final Sell Strategy

    by dnb2020 Dec 19, 2014 9:38 AM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Dec 19, 2014 2:52 PM Flag

    CTIC I just don't want to lose one facts......I still believe in DVAX the science.....I just lost faith in DVAX the investment....I keeping tabs on the lost opportunity costs and it frustrates me....it didn't have to go like this....as I write today ISIS was up 11% again today to 52 week highs and we barely can get a gain and less likely to hold it.....sums it up....great science, poor short term investment.....I will always be checking to see if I should re-enter with a more robust pipeline but not feeling it today....and Steady Eddie has done NOTHING for me as a long term shareholder to change this view...its all about him and his internal cronies at the moment

  • Reply to

    My Final Sell Strategy

    by dnb2020 Dec 19, 2014 9:38 AM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Dec 19, 2014 2:28 PM Flag

    We estimate the worldwide market for adult hepatitis B vaccines at approximately $680 million annually. This market is primarily comprised of GlaxoSmithKline’s Engerix-B and Twinrix as well as Merck’s Recombivax-HB. Key market segments, which are persons considered to be at high risk for hepatitis B, include chronic kidney disease patients, people with multiple sexual partners or injection drug use, healthcare workers and first responders, travelers, and chronic liver disease patients.

    We intend to focus our initial commercialization efforts on the US market. Currently, the US market for adult hepatitis B vaccines is approximately $270 million annually. In late 2012 the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (“ACIP”) updated their recommendation for adults who should be vaccinated against hepatitis B to include people with diabetes mellitus (type 1 and type 2). According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (“CDC”) there are 20 million adults diagnosed with diabetes and another 1.5 million new cases diagnosed each year. This population represents a significant increase in the number of adults recommended for vaccination against hepatitis B in the US.

  • Reply to

    My Final Sell Strategy

    by dnb2020 Dec 19, 2014 9:38 AM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Dec 19, 2014 11:49 AM Flag

    Hey CTIC...you have been here along with outboard, raven, isaac and the gang for a really long time so you know what i am referring to....the stock price is garbage while the overall markets are setting new all time highs...that has got to be telling you/me something....like get out....and the company then really pi**ed me off when they introduced their buisness plan to commercialize the US market worth $270M for ALL players...really? a measly $270M all-in vaccine.....after all this?....this company thinks and acts too small and that is why they are mismanaged and a problem....and personally while I do think they addressed the FDA concerns, they did not do it like Daum asked...they "negotiated" their way into a coin flip instead of a guarantee for the next VRBPAC....everyone will be quoting the exciting results and the remaininder of folks will be saying that there is still too much risk versus reward since they didn't actually do what Daum asked....in the end the risk is too great for a one trick pony....I have voluntarily chosen to try a biotech with more than one egg in the basket....I do wish all longs the very best of luck and trading....maybe I can look back on DVAX and be frustrated that I too didn't hang in there

  • In full disclosure I think after 5 years I have had enough of DVAX and I am going to fully divest.....when? soon...when I see my targets price dip slightly or when DVAX makes any kind of positive announcement (not the big one we have been talking about).....why sell? opportunity costs are too high and long overdue.....which companies will I buy? BABA, ISIS, and GILD......my shares will "drop" but all three of these stocks will double and with relative safety in the markets....DVAX just can't seem to get it done and even if they do it will never deliver the investment returns I am seeking and it has already cost me too much opportunity cost....trading flat when the markets are rockin leaves much to be desired.....oh well, you can't say I didn't give DVAX a solid chance...Daum or no Daum

    Sentiment: Sell

  • It was one giant flush in DVAX's pps....now I am relieved!......leave it to DVAX to let a heavily institutional stock get creamed with no news.....at least all those stop losses were taken out by the retailers....lite volume day....a big yawn....Thanks again Steady Eddie! Our own version of Christmas Vacation....no bonuses or inground pools....just more hapless management.....probably no one in the office anyway....maybe next year santa...lol

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Crude Oil is crashing....the DOW is down over "2 large" and people are buying DVAX like its a short squeeze ....volume is way up and almost double.....this $16.26 pps bothers me since it still looks like $1.62 pps when I analyze this stock.....similar to the misperception that Raven was complaining about earlier $35pps...yeah, not really $35 when you look at it from the way you analyzed it earlier this year.....

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Some $35 stocks.......

    by theblackraven08 Dec 12, 2014 9:36 AM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Dec 12, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    Hey Raven, DVAX is one of my all-time "loved and hated" stocks of all time too,.....but your list of $35 pps stocks have market caps of $2B and up.....the little train that could DVAX at $35 pps is less than $1B.....apples to oranges comparison....$35 is very realistic

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    New Price Target

    by dvaxbeowulf Dec 11, 2014 12:40 PM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Dec 11, 2014 1:43 PM Flag

    Directionally correct but Q316 seems way too far out when other biotechs explode way before the events occur....stock prices are ahead of the actual events...$35 for me will happen Q215...it is only $935M market cap and the entire enchalata and storyline will be known....safety and effectiveness....I also expect Steady Eddie to introduce expanded uses for the new adjuvant....then you will really see what unlocking shareholder value really means....I am conservative in the sense I rate the stock a hold...I will not purchase one additional share until they "show me" instead of "tell me" of their success....you know twice a bridesmaid...yada yada yada....

    Sentiment: Hold

  • I know that DVAX was asked to run a larger and longer period trial at VRBPAC last time due to the untested use of a new adjuvant.....without the new adjuvant the vaccine would have likely garnered support....Daum was impressed but not convinced of the safety profile....leading to a NARROW vote rejection on safety......now we are running the larger and longer test and some may say that it isn't large enough but let's assume it is or DVAX will be gone......why can't they file for the new VRBPAC meeting shortly and obtain pre-approval to agree to continue monitoring for the full year.....the issue for Daum was the small number and race of the vaccinated sample and to a lesser degree the full 12 months....I think DVAX will approach it again in the same manner since by the time the VRBPAC meeting is scheduled they will have current data to support close to the 12 month period...I see DVAX filing in early Q215 despite any other dates previously inferred or stated....correct? agree?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    ctic I like your enthusiasm...

    by jdoobie00 Dec 3, 2014 1:46 AM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Dec 3, 2014 11:29 AM Flag

    Okay...a fair question about risk mitigation strategies based on the last VRBPAC meeting....the current price is $1.59 (pre split) and I do expect that the price will rise to $6 before the next VRBPAC meeting....that's about how much it did last time.....if your basis is over $6 then buy some insurance with puts/calls and while you are limiting your upside you won't get crushed either.....for the majority of other retailers they will be in the money....sell enough to use "house money" and let her ride.....I don't think Daum can use the too small a sample again since the company addressed that....I think he can raise fear for smaller but important future concerns like how does this vaccine work with other children vaccines given at the same time.....but we are not seeking approval for that targeted group YET.....DVAX gets approved without an SAE....Daum did his job and delayed it as much as his good reputation dare to push this issue imho

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    ctic I like your enthusiasm...

    by jdoobie00 Dec 3, 2014 1:46 AM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Dec 3, 2014 9:32 AM Flag

    Neut.....DVAX has never been higher than $9pps (pre split basis) based on the max timeline for the stock chart....that puts every single buyer purchasing under $1B market cap.....DVAX will easily be billions over $1B market cap if Heplisav gets commercialized....only those who sold locked in losses....a long and painful underwater stock? yes........a loser stock? No, not likely......and just like the last meeting the stock price was very strong and rising pps into that date....it will happen again......

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    ctic I like your enthusiasm...

    by jdoobie00 Dec 3, 2014 1:46 AM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Dec 3, 2014 8:47 AM Flag

    So doobie.....I guess by your post that you think CTIC has paid more than DVAX will EVER be worth?....interesting......I guess that you are the new short on our board.....good luck holding DVAX down now....oh, there will be bad investing days for this stock but I am certain that unless a "black swan" event occurs during the safety testing that you will be the one with the permanent stock loss.....my prediction is that DVAX will never see anything below $20pps starting January 1, 2015 ever again.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    15 Stocks, all under $15......

    by theblackraven08 Dec 1, 2014 8:37 PM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Dec 2, 2014 9:24 AM Flag

    "Destruct sequence 1, code 1-1 A."
    "Destruct sequence 2, code 1-1 A-2B."
    "Destruct sequence 3, code 1 B-2B-3."

    Computer: "Destruct sequence completed and engaged. Awaiting final code for (time interval) countdown."

    Commanding officer: "Code zero zero zero. Destruct. Zero."

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Sell, Moritmer, Sell!!!

    by dnb2020 Nov 26, 2014 11:55 AM
    dnb2020 dnb2020 Nov 26, 2014 6:15 PM Flag

    5 thumbs down? really?....I have owned this stock for probably 4 years now (and yes there are some here that have been around longer)....I still own this stock but I was just pointing out that it has been a long and rough road...even Raven has turned from long to hold/short (and Happy Turkey Day to you too Raven)...my biggest concern is how this stock is sooo manipulated with all this institutional ownership...I think Cramer likes this stock but can't recommend it until there are concrete activities that show a success rather than speculation....In the long run I will make money or lose it all but I truly believe the returns need to be in nose bleed territory or the lost opportunity cost for this money will never be realized...and that is unfortunate knowing that I believed in what the business model was trying to achieve.....approval, commercialization and hold the stock should be very very profitable....just not for another year here on the Island of Misfit Toys....where is Santa when you need him to revitalize this stock?...good luck trading and/or holding

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Its up 58 cents....time to lock in profits before the orange juice market crashes.....even Jim Cramer says you're playing with fire.....who cares if the safety trial is a large scale of exactly the same thing we did years ago....we could have sold this stock, bought BABA at 80 and sold BABA at 120 in 2 weeks and still bought this back at the same price! I want some instant gratification from my DVAX...58 cents will have to do!!!!!!

    Sentiment: Hold

DVAX
16.97-0.04(-0.24%)3:28 PMEST

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