I believe that you are right on the money about this going to $10. But why ever buy VXX? When it gets to $10, do you expect a sudden burst of volatility? Is this based on charts? Fibonacci?
I went to the "club" last night. I saw this stunning appearing lady and knew that the typical approach might not work.
I instead approached her and suggested that I was a trader guru, and I told her that I would like to share a money making opportunity with her.
I then informed her that I would need to spend some time alone with her while I taught and made her an expert on contango.
She slapped me very hard, in my face!
Although a very pretty lady, not a very savvy investor. She already knew, and had been sc@#$&d by contango! She was long VXX!
Who or whatever drives the price of VXX up during the 1st half of the trading day, seems to run out of steam mid day, and then VXX dips to where it should have been all along.
I am tempted to simply cover my short position if the fall in UVXY continues into the close, and just set up a brand new short position with next "little" pop in UVXY.
We seem to be having more than a few opportunities to get in and out of these trades.
Any hint of the market heading south, and VXX/UVXY up. Even when market is up, the fear of a correction looms, and VXX trends higher during much of the trading day, allowing more opportunities to short it!
As long as my net worth rises each trading day, I'm not sweating it too badly. My trading account has taken a beating, but my retirement accounts are soaring and make several times more per day than what my trading account loses.
I would be doing better if VXX and UVXY were crashing as they should be this year, but what resilience they have.
I would give anything to see a mini crash in the market, just so I could quadruple up on my UVXY short position, and perhaps buy some puts during the fire sale.
I think all baby boomers should go into early retirement this year, looks like their 401K plans will take care of the rest!
VXX trading behavior does seem strange. But, again, I believe so many traders are anticipating a pullback, that VXX is being propped up over speculation.
Once we get a rational pullback of say ~ 5 to 10 %, then VXX should get back to its usually trading pattern.
Sell in May may not happen. The typical summer tech wreck may not materialize this year. But, I doubt baby boomers retirement plans are going to double in the next 3 to 4 years as we are on track for should this bull market not take a breather!
No scam would allow shorts to make money consistently off of it year after year after year. If you are an angry long, then just get out! The market in general has been in an unprecedented bull run all year. You can not expect VXX to be up every day when there is simply no fear in the market. In fact, it is the lack of any fear that makes this market rally, day after day.
If you want proof that VXX is not a scam, simply short it, and when you actually make a profit after a few days, to a few weeks, you will know, that it cannot be a scam. Because you will more than likely make money. And, if you continue to short it with a little strategy over a few years, the money that you will make will be very convincing!
It will all depend on fed policy change rumors. If any confirmation that the fed may start tapering or consider winding down of quantitative easing earlier than expected, then we will likely get 3 to 5% pullback in the short term. Otherwise, just no reason for this bull market to back off! But, market always catches folks off guard, so something unexpected could also take the market down, but hard to predict that.
No doubt. This market won't even stay down for long period of time intraday! I would like to see some extreme movement in any direction at this point. This flat market action is getting old. Will we be stuck at 15000 for a decade, like we were at Dow 10,000?
Coined by David Faber earlier today. If you can't beat um, join um. I remain short the market, but made some major adjustment in my spreads so that if this Teflon Market keeps defying the laws of gravity, I will make some incredible short term gains to offset the long term losses that I have accumulated this year.
My short UVXY trades for today are already making profits. I am trading day trades, swing trades and long term trades, until this Teflon Don Market goes down. In the end, no matter how Teflon the Don, they go down!
Shorting UVXY has been a hedge for my account. I would be down much more if it were not for the short trades that I have made with UVXY. This is why I short with any pop in UVXY even if there is a good chance of a market pullback for the day. This market hasn't provided many opportunities for shorting UVXY, so I jump on any opportunity as occurred today. My account is overall short the market, so has been a difficult year for me. My retirement accounts are long the markets and are worth far more than my trading acoount, and have done well this year thus far. My total net worth has grown this year, so I am not pressured to change my strategy. Just getting a little frustrated that I keep losing money in my trading account, and so few opportunities to short UVXY after 5% pops.
If this market holds up through May and June, then will probably stay bullish through the rest of the year. I will stay with my current trading strategy until end of June no matter what, then will reconsider my strategy if still down over 10% at that time.
I am down over 10%! I made need to change my strategy, and will if no market correction of significance by end of June. I do not recall a bull run like this in my lifetime!
I just shorted a small amount of UVXY, and will short some more as it rises. I had covered at 5.70, now short at 6 and will short again at 6.15.
I have been out of town. Haven't posted in a while. I did cover my short UVXY position on Tuesday. Oddly, VXX and UVXY traded up today, despite market move higher. I was flying in from out of town, and did not trade stocks today, but would have shorted UVXY at the open, if I had been settled in at home.
If we get a similar pop at the open on Thursday, then I will likely start building another short position.
Something strange is going on this year. As resilient as this bull market has been, you would think that the VIX would be breaking all time low levels on a daily basis, and that VXX and UVXY would be so low that reverse splits would be imminent.
It looks like we are certainly en route to Dow 18,000. May even happen by 2015, or possibly sooner. But, without a pullback? I doubt that. Just because we are breaking records this year, doesn't mean a pullback will not possibly happen at all this year. I still expect a pullback of some amount this month or by late June. If it does not happen, then I go 100% to cash, and start building long positions with a buy on the dip strategy.
Until then, I will continue to marvel over the growth of my retirement accounts. Maybe 401K plans will be the next great bubble!
I have been waiting all year for a correction! I believe 80% of folks posting on this board are waiting for a correction. However, there are various ways to wait for a correction. Some buy VXX or UVXY and hold it long hoping everyday that the market will crash, while the only thing that crashes is their account value over time.
Others try to outsmart volatility, and know the harm of just buy and hold with VXX or UVXY, and they wait for opportune times to buy long, then wait for a little pop, and get out as soon as they have a reasonable profit.
My approach is to wait for any pop, and short a tiny number of shares. If continues to pop higher, buy a few more shares. If a little market panic kicks in, and VXX and UVXY take off, then short a modest amount of shares. If go into backwardation, and shares keep trending higher, then keep periodically adding to your short position, but pay very close attention to your margin balance, and have plenty of wiggle room should the market go into a tailspin like 2008.
When you reach the max number of short shares that you feel comfortable holding in your account, then be disciplined, and add no furher short VXX shares, then simply wait for the market to get the bad behind it. VXX and UVXY will eventually deflate, and before you know it, your account will be back in the black. And if you resist taking profits early, you will make a lot of money!
I have an accountant has been doing my taxes for the last 20 + years. I was audited one year and my accountant took care of everything. I have otherwise never had a problem, therefore rely on my accountant to take care of all of those various forms, and I simply pay his bill when it is all said and done. I keep records, but I am lucky to have a very competent accountant, and therefore let him do his thing, while I just focus on cranking out the change that the market allows me to feast on every now and then.