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Pengrowth Energy Corporation Message Board

doc.reality 112 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 30, 2015 2:35 PM Member since: Feb 24, 2011
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  • doc.reality doc.reality Apr 30, 2015 2:35 PM Flag

    There is a giant short interest in the stock due to the absolute failure of their initial business model: crude oil alternative fuel company. Lets face it, REAL crude oil companies are going out of business, so only goes to follow that a more expensive fake crude company with little revenue, no customers, a big miss on the scalability timetable and continuous financial losses would have been one of the first to go.
    My expectation is that as the company morphs into a speciality oils business model, having lost credibility for several factors, they are going to have to prove it on the balance sheet before this stock price starts to reflect ANY of the potential they possess.
    BUT, when they do prove it (some would say IF), the share price will go asymptotic as bulls stampede to get in and bears stampede to get out... it will be epic. Did you see the latest short ratio?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • doc.reality doc.reality Apr 30, 2015 11:04 AM Flag

    They have an online program on AlgaWise oils coming up on May 14th, 2pm Eastern time. I posted the link a few times but since it is not a yahoo site, they yank it, so ya gotta goog it yourself.
    Massive market potential... imagine parents telling the kids to finish all the french fries... healthy potato chips?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • doc.reality doc.reality Apr 30, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    Lets see... increasing debt, increasing losses, mortgaging huge chunks of future profit margins to put off bankruptcy filing for now, a bloated management tier to oversee a drastically reduced CapX program...
    If you've gone down this far already, clearly you have the gills to ride this puppy all the way to the bottom.

  • doc.reality doc.reality Apr 28, 2015 3:26 PM Flag

    They need to sell some of the $96 hedges and book the profits, which in turn they use to pay off debt. TAKE THE BIRD IN THE HAND -- or enough of it to be Free and Clear of debt payments for the next 2 years! == BOOM! back to $5.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • doc.reality doc.reality Apr 28, 2015 1:24 PM Flag

    Makes perfect sense for the non-thermal COO to leave PGH. The major CapX budget slash left this dude to sit on his thumbs... it is actually good to see him want to move on: you don't need a high caliber chief to manage a lights on situation for the next 18 months.
    Just added 2k shares in my long term/ buy and hold account.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • doc.reality by doc.reality Apr 27, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    did russhole get hit by a bus?

  • doc.reality doc.reality Apr 24, 2015 2:20 PM Flag

    yeah, rigs are getting drilled:

    "The number of active rig counts in the US keeps tumbling.

    Data released Friday from oil driller Baker Hughes showed that this week, the number of active rigs fell by 31 to 703, the lowest level since October 2010.

    The number of combined oil and gas rigs fell by 22 to 932, the lowest level since July 2009.

    Morgan Stanley has said that the count will bottom in about three months, based on their study of previous periods when rig counts declined."

  • Reply to

    Is TGB a buy yet?

    by newbeat2000 Apr 9, 2015 1:00 PM
    doc.reality doc.reality Apr 24, 2015 10:13 AM Flag

    the non expiring call option is only true as long as they don't go under. How long can you have a business that doesn't make any profit? How long can you miss-allocate what FFO you do get: buying companies that should be left to go out of business for your own personal benefit -- buying a chunk of nowhere to potentially mine something that is already in oversupply, with a giant mine producing at 1/3 the cost... on and on and on...
    however, on the day Russ is out (and if TGB is still in business), this stock should double. Until then, you're betting that this RussHole won't bankrupt your options... that bet is no sure thing dude.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    What's needed in order to see a dividend increase?

    by jamescg Apr 16, 2015 11:11 PM
    doc.reality doc.reality Apr 21, 2015 4:48 PM Flag

    Lindbergh producing 40k bpd in a $70 market and some meaningful paydown of debt.

  • doc.reality doc.reality Apr 21, 2015 4:41 PM Flag

    between the cap-X reductions and hedges, the best is yet to come :D

  • doc.reality doc.reality Apr 21, 2015 4:30 PM Flag

    Dude, sounds like you're suffering from PTSD of your portfolio...

    They should have sold a great big chunk of them hedges while WTI was in the low $40s and prepaid that 2017 debt. While nobody can state what 2017 will look like, most "experts" see WTI ending this year between 60 and 80... not cashing them in was a missed opportunity.

  • Reply to

    the professional trader

    by chewymalt1200 Apr 18, 2015 10:10 PM
    doc.reality doc.reality Apr 20, 2015 4:04 PM Flag

    your math is as accurate as your prognostications :P
    You brought 10k for 31670, or @ 3.17.
    While your math sux, I can't argue with this current investment

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Trading Halted - Any one know anything?

    by mswanson45 Apr 14, 2015 3:21 PM
    doc.reality doc.reality Apr 20, 2015 3:19 PM Flag

    PWE is like someone who owes the banksters way more money than he can pay, who just agreed to an offer he couldn't refuse to escape the Joe Pesci head vice.

  • Reply to

    Trading Halted - Any one know anything?

    by mswanson45 Apr 14, 2015 3:21 PM
    doc.reality doc.reality Apr 20, 2015 11:54 AM Flag

    Not my thing. Was long about 2 yrs ago, but switched into the well run and hedged PGH when they presented plans for the low cost heavy oil Lindburgh project. They still have the divy, and the next move will be to increase it when all that low cost oil drives up the free cash flow. PWE will still be selling blood and a future redemption story.

  • Reply to

    Is TGB a buy yet?

    by newbeat2000 Apr 9, 2015 1:00 PM
    doc.reality doc.reality Apr 20, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    Is RUSS a goodbye yet?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Trading Halted - Any one know anything?

    by mswanson45 Apr 14, 2015 3:21 PM
    doc.reality doc.reality Apr 17, 2015 4:37 PM Flag

    LOL a dozen reality haters... no biggie, there is plenty that hate on climate change talk too.

    Fact is, if selling off a nice chunk of your future profits WAY into the future were such a benign business practice, why would they wait till the repo man is banging on the front door? Why wouldn't other companies have done this? Because it is the type of thing that a very desperate company does when they are out of options... Like selling your blood to survive. Beats dying, and ya gotta do what ya gotta do, but in no shape or form can this be considered a "Good Thing". Oh yeah, before you get a goofy on my analogy, profits are the life blood of companies in capitalism.

  • Reply to

    Trading Halted - Any one know anything?

    by mswanson45 Apr 14, 2015 3:21 PM
    doc.reality doc.reality Apr 17, 2015 4:36 PM Flag

    LOL a dozen reality haters... no biggie, there is plenty that hate on climate change talk too.

    Fact is, if selling off a nice chunk of your future profits WAY into the future were such a benign business practice, why would they wait till the repo man is banging on the front door? Why wouldn't other companies have done this? Because it is the type of thing that a very desperate company does when they are out of options... Like selling your blood to survive. Beats dying, and ya gotta do what ya gotta do, but in no shape or form can this be considered a "Good Thing". Oh yeah, before you get a goofy on my analogy, profits are the life blood of companies in capitalism.

  • Reply to

    $4.25, all she wrote.

    by jim6b Apr 15, 2015 3:25 PM
    doc.reality doc.reality Apr 15, 2015 3:41 PM Flag

    Nah, just a pause to digest... too much pent up demand from the short side to be over. The premise for szym's demise has been proven false, so it is really the short's party that is over.

  • Reply to

    Trading Halted - Any one know anything?

    by mswanson45 Apr 14, 2015 3:21 PM
    doc.reality doc.reality Apr 14, 2015 4:17 PM Flag

    yeah, they just mortgaged future production to avoid bankruptcy this quarter... not really good news, but it beats getting flushed

    Sentiment: Hold

  • doc.reality by doc.reality Apr 14, 2015 10:17 AM Flag

    The shale oil boom that pushed U.S. crude production to the highest level in four decades is grinding to a halt.

    Output from the prolific tight-rock formations such as North Dakota’s Bakken shale will decline 57,000 barrels a day in May, the Energy Information Administration said Monday. It’s the first time the agency has forecast a drop in output since it began issuing a monthly drilling productivity report in 2013.

    Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and IHS Inc. have projected that U.S. oil production growth will end, at least temporarily, with futures near a six-year low. The plunge in prices has already forced half the country’s drilling rigs offline and wiped out thousands of jobs. The retreat in America’s oil boom is necessary to correct a supply glut and rebalance global oil markets, according to Goldman.

    “We’re going off an inevitable cliff” because of the shrinking rig counts, Carl Larry, head of oil and gas for Frost & Sullivan LP, said by phone from Houston on Monday. “The question is how fast is the decline going to go. If it’s fast, if it’s steep, there could be a big jump in the market.”

    Deutsche Bank forecast in a research note last week that production in May will mark “an important inflection point for the U.S. oil market.”

    Advances in oil-drilling technologies are no longer enough to offset the rigs being idled by U.S. producers, Paul Horsnell, global head of commodities research at Standard Chartered Plc in London, said in an April 13 research note. Shale production is probably already falling, with total U.S. output set to shrink by 70,000 barrels a day from May to June, he said.

    “The deceleration in U.S. output has been greater than the market is currently pricing in,” Horsnell said in the report. “Global rebalancing is in full swing.”

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/shale-oil-boom-could-end-041232178.html

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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