The run up from $20 to current levels reflected approval with a black box. I sold half my position last week because I felt the risk - albeit small - of a crl would be catastrophic and that if approved in line with expectations that the stock would be up only slightly in the short run. I'm still very bullish on the fundamentals and own a lot (just not a crazy stupid massive amount that I did at $20).
Where we go from here depends on: 1) Rx trends which will come out in a few weeks, 2) quarterly sales, 3) alzheimer's data, 4) 2017 EPS and 5) buyout. I think the culmination of these factors make a 12-18 month price target of $50 realistic.
Spader is one of the most thoughtful non-cheerleaders on this board. Could he be soft bashing? Maybe but I think he's right about a lot of stuff. Anyway, let's get this drug approved today!!
Agree the article is drivel. Duncan also has been back and forth on this. As an analyst he is just another guy in my opinion. By now, the data stands for itself. The axon drug is years away and has clinical risk. Today is hopefully the day!!
No medication is completely safe. Often when you expand a medication to the broader real population side effects also crop up. Pimavanserin is a great medication for PDP. I think it will make a real difference, black box or not.
Adcoms often sound contentious. Most expect approval with a black box. The move from $20 to $34 reflects that and improving sentiment for biotech stocks as we get beyond the election and look out to 2017. If label is clean I think we get a large move too but Spader also agrees with that. Double the price? Maybe on a short squeeze. I think that the chance of pimavanserin avoiding class labeling is about 1%. Why would the FDA risk that? We don't know what is causing the deaths with antipsychotics and there was a signal in the data. I'm a long time ACAD long too so this is not a soft bash. Just keeping it real.
This is a more complicated question. I think the risk - albeit small - of a CRL for something significant is about 1%. That would drive stock down to about $15 if has to do with waiting for the Alzheimer's data that should result in Q4:2016. A CRL for some unforeseen minor issue probably hits the stock by 25% or so. On the flip side, there is what happens if we get an approval. That depends on what the label looks like and really more what big institutions think of the label. I don't think a black box matters to doctors but it might to Fidelity. Perception reigns until we have earnings. So if people are happy with the label on approval I think we approach $40 in a very short period of time with a 12-18 month target of say $60. After approval valuation will be determined by the prescription trends and then sales figures. I would imagine if approved next week, they would not launch during the summer but likely by the fall so we should start seeing Rx trends in September with inventory stocking sales in Q3 and then a bit of a quarter-to-quarter drop off in Q4 sales wise. That's why the Rx trends will be the more important number versus sales for this year.
There are many examples of strong drug launches when the product is superior and becomes the standard of care.
Well then that is a dumb short story. Very different products. Truly shocked shorts aren't covering
Good point. 4/29 is coming soon!