I'm staying too. Congratulations to us!
I am back in! With what is size for me. Heard a non-24 commercial on the radio today. This is a real market. Bigger than people think.
Yes - don't see how they can't. Pts will need co-pay assistance but likely will get help via different organizations. Insurance cos have to cover orphan drugs.
You know nothing. Completely untrue. Another person to ignore
And do you have any idea how many sleep drugs have been tried in this population and have poor success. Tasimelteon works in keeping these pts on a regular 24 hour day.
Sorry - I saw $50MM and thought that was the sales estimate. The sales estimates will surprise people I think. If they get 5,000 pts at $50,000 then you have a $250MM drug. That would make for a very good stock from these levels. Xyrem for narcolepsy is priced around $50,000. Seems like a good proxy.
So they will spend $120MM in cash and have no sales. Hahaha. That is a good one!
Except Belviq and all the other anti-obesity drugs offer modest efficacy and it is very crowded. Very different markets. What is the market cap of vanda right now? $350MM. Most biotechs are trading 3x peak sales - and many of those have not been derisked from a regulatory standpoint. Tasimelteon has. It's also an orphan drug. Do you really think they can't get $150MM in sales? That is nothing. That would be about $1.00 in EPS to Vanda. Keep your short to squeak out every last drop, but know this 12-18 months from now Vanda should be in the $20-30 vicinity.
This is a once in a decade situation. I'm buying even more tomorrow. We are looking at $1-2 points downside and $20+ upside - do not fret the short term fluctuations. FDA panel was a lovefest. This is a major advance for people who are blind. Co has $4 in cash too. No need for another offering.
Listen to the vanda presentation at the national federation of the blinds annual meeting...very interesting. Lots of applause for Vanda and tasimelteon. Google it. 70% of completely blind people likely have non-24. They will have a registry of thousands prior to launch.