You know nothing. Completely untrue. Another person to ignore
And do you have any idea how many sleep drugs have been tried in this population and have poor success. Tasimelteon works in keeping these pts on a regular 24 hour day.
Sorry - I saw $50MM and thought that was the sales estimate. The sales estimates will surprise people I think. If they get 5,000 pts at $50,000 then you have a $250MM drug. That would make for a very good stock from these levels. Xyrem for narcolepsy is priced around $50,000. Seems like a good proxy.
So they will spend $120MM in cash and have no sales. Hahaha. That is a good one!
Except Belviq and all the other anti-obesity drugs offer modest efficacy and it is very crowded. Very different markets. What is the market cap of vanda right now? $350MM. Most biotechs are trading 3x peak sales - and many of those have not been derisked from a regulatory standpoint. Tasimelteon has. It's also an orphan drug. Do you really think they can't get $150MM in sales? That is nothing. That would be about $1.00 in EPS to Vanda. Keep your short to squeak out every last drop, but know this 12-18 months from now Vanda should be in the $20-30 vicinity.
This is a once in a decade situation. I'm buying even more tomorrow. We are looking at $1-2 points downside and $20+ upside - do not fret the short term fluctuations. FDA panel was a lovefest. This is a major advance for people who are blind. Co has $4 in cash too. No need for another offering.
Listen to the vanda presentation at the national federation of the blinds annual meeting...very interesting. Lots of applause for Vanda and tasimelteon. Google it. 70% of completely blind people likely have non-24. They will have a registry of thousands prior to launch.
I dunno. Last three days it's essentially flat. Maybe its forming a base. But again I don't care about tomorrow really. Lets see where we are in 12 months.
People who look only at the share price are missing the boat. They see a stock that went from $6 to $15 and now back to $11 and change. But looking closer Vanda actually is a cheap... no very cheap stock. It's enterprise value is $256MM. Cheap stocks with good growth prospects outperform. Once institutions speak with their physician consultants who take care the blind (note not sleep docs), they will start buying. I see a $20 stock mid 2014 and if you do a dcf can make a case for mid-30s. So that is a few dollars of downside versus $20 of upside. I like that reward to risk.
So Holy, we meet again. Funny how our strategies are so different yet I have a feeling we are both doing quite well in the market. No way this gets shot down. The panel had plenty of ammo to do that from all the stir created by Adam F. The data are good. Doubt the market size if you will but this is a real drug. By the way, this is not an expensive stock at all, unlike SRPT at $50. Market cap is $400MM with $120MM cash.