So Holy, we meet again. Funny how our strategies are so different yet I have a feeling we are both doing quite well in the market. No way this gets shot down. The panel had plenty of ammo to do that from all the stir created by Adam F. The data are good. Doubt the market size if you will but this is a real drug. By the way, this is not an expensive stock at all, unlike SRPT at $50. Market cap is $400MM with $120MM cash.
Xyrem is an orphan drug for narcolepsy priced at $50,000 with similar number of patients to the non 24 market. It did $500MM in sales this year. This is a very good proxy for tasimelteon.
Omg. This is so wrong. Insurance and in this case Medicare will pay for the drug. Which likely will be priced very high. The orphan drug for narcolepsy is $50k and currently a $500MM drug. Similar number of patients.
FDA disagrees with your assessment. So do I. But more importantly the FDA does.
And by the way, who cares what the stock does tomorrow???
So you are saying the $120MM or $4/share in cash isn't enough to launch? They need around 75 reps tops. They just did an offering. I'm afraid if you are waiting for a secondary it is not going to happen.
Well as a long term investor good to know my mortality rate is low!
Does everyone also realize that this co has like $4/share in cash? They don't need to do another offering. And it means the enterprise value of the stock is around $120MM less than the market cap.
1) investors are forward looking usually 12-18 months
2) what are the stocks at P/E 7 growing? Are they biotechs?
3) book value is deceptive when looking at biotechs because R&D should be capitalized as an asset
4) this sounds like a short-term trading issue which does not concern me
So is that it?
With approval now derisked, it would seem reasonable to estimate what Vanda could be valued off of 2014 EPS. Assuming $75MM in sales in 2014 and a 25% net margin/35MM shares outstanding = $0.60. Using a 30x P/E the implied price target is $18. When do analysts and PMs typically look at 2014 EPS... now! This implies that Vanda is $6 undervalued. Every $100MM in tasimelteon sales = $0.70 in EPS to Vanda.
$75MM is an reasonable sales forecast for year one. Hence the stock would appear $6/share undervalued based on 2014 EPS.
Thanks. I mean how exactly do they get to the estimates of $300-500MM? It would be great to know what these estimates are based on.
Every analyst has a price target of $20+ on this stock. How are they getting there? Lazard, piper and JPM I think. With the shorts questioning the market size - because they can no longer hang their hat on "the drug won't be recommended for approval - it would be good to read about some actual analysis.
Well the FDA disagrees with you. The briefing documents state that there are 100,000 pts who are blind in US. I think I will side with the FDA over the shorts on this board,,,
Never seen so many people short and vocal on one of these message boards. Do you people actually think that you are influencing people who can move the stock? I mean you must.
I look forward to the day when we get real analysis/opinions on this message board again.
Sales forecasts of $300-500MM with a sub $400MM market cap and tons of cash. Drug recommended for approval by wide margin. I could go on but let's just stop there. $20+ price target in 12-18 months.
Whose to say that your need no light perception to have have a circadian rhythm disorder? I mean what if you only have 20%? And now docs will be screening for this type of sleep disorder. Again this market could surprise in terms of numbers,
Also someone mentioned that there are already 3,000 patients identified in the non-24 registry.
The good news is too that VNDA will not need to partner in the US so they can keep 100% of their asset. They likely only need a sales force of 75 reps or so.
This kinda of thinking is why there is still opportunity in this stock and why I am buying more on monday