Sales forecasts of $300-500MM with a sub $400MM market cap and tons of cash. Drug recommended for approval by wide margin. I could go on but let's just stop there. $20+ price target in 12-18 months.
Whose to say that your need no light perception to have have a circadian rhythm disorder? I mean what if you only have 20%? And now docs will be screening for this type of sleep disorder. Again this market could surprise in terms of numbers,
Also someone mentioned that there are already 3,000 patients identified in the non-24 registry.
The good news is too that VNDA will not need to partner in the US so they can keep 100% of their asset. They likely only need a sales force of 75 reps or so.
This kinda of thinking is why there is still opportunity in this stock and why I am buying more on monday
Well first of all, melatonin, does not work for this condition. And second these patients are suffering as they are not getting sufficient sleep over a lifetime.
I think the size of the market for tasimelteon is going to suprise when people crunch the numbers. The first surprise is what the price of this orphan drug will be. There is a drug prescribed right now for narcolepsy that is $50,000. Say VNDA prices the drug there. Then use 10,000 blind patients who are 100% light insensitive. Then say they get half of these patients. That's $250MM peak. Now what if you don't need to be 100% light insensitive to have an entrainment issue? And what if VNDA get a patent on entrainment that holds up extending the exclusivity beyond 7 years. I'm long and holding.
Hahaha. Good stuff. I didn't short. But I did get out to live to fight another day. It's terrible for the kids. Long road ahead for SRPT. I still think eteplirsen works.
Holy whaaa? Are you actually long a biotech stock. Is this sarcasm? Weren't you short the stock? I thought you would be doing a celebratory dance.
As I see it the company needs to figure out what the primary endpoint is going to be and all the secondary endpoints and get this study underway. I believe this drug works. But they are going to need reliable clinical endpoints. When the dust settles I will be buying.
He had a rough day for sure. That's how it goes sometimes in biotech land. If you invest in this space blowups are to be expected. That's why it is essential to be diversified. Man, Adam F got both wrong on the same day. Crazy. Here's to a good advisory panel Thursday!
The enterprise value is only $64MM because of cash. I think it works out to $4/share in cash. So I think $3 is where it goes if not recommended for approval. But I might be in minority but I think it gets panel backing.
I am long GENT at $30. I am trying to find a reason why I should load the boat. I can't. I have rarely come across a stock with a few questions as this one. What am I missing?
Any new data released today in the ASH abstracts? There's a few abstracts/presentations but nothing ground breaking. Any reason stock is down so much? Seems like the data so far are solid. Kind of wondering if I should dollar cost average here...