Pay attention more to the thought leaders in the field versus the general neurologists. There often is a lag effect with doctors.
Correct - we do not understand psychosis well enough yet. The dopamine hypothesis likely is only part of the puzzle. Schizophrenia (which I believe is a form of dementia - where we typically see hallucinations before cognitive decline), usually is associated with auditory hallucinations and delusions. In my experience on my hospital and geri psych rotations during residency and fellowship, PD patients with psychosis tend to have more visual hallucinations versus auditory compared to those with schizophrenia. Alzheimer's patients with dementia had much more agitation and sundowning sometimes due to paranoid ideation 2/2 confusion. All of these symptoms of psychosis probably are multi-factorial. We need more data to answer your Crecy's question.
The run up from $20 to current levels reflected approval with a black box. I sold half my position last week because I felt the risk - albeit small - of a crl would be catastrophic and that if approved in line with expectations that the stock would be up only slightly in the short run. I'm still very bullish on the fundamentals and own a lot (just not a crazy stupid massive amount that I did at $20).
Where we go from here depends on: 1) Rx trends which will come out in a few weeks, 2) quarterly sales, 3) alzheimer's data, 4) 2017 EPS and 5) buyout. I think the culmination of these factors make a 12-18 month price target of $50 realistic.
Spader is one of the most thoughtful non-cheerleaders on this board. Could he be soft bashing? Maybe but I think he's right about a lot of stuff. Anyway, let's get this drug approved today!!
Agree the article is drivel. Duncan also has been back and forth on this. As an analyst he is just another guy in my opinion. By now, the data stands for itself. The axon drug is years away and has clinical risk. Today is hopefully the day!!
No medication is completely safe. Often when you expand a medication to the broader real population side effects also crop up. Pimavanserin is a great medication for PDP. I think it will make a real difference, black box or not.
Adcoms often sound contentious. Most expect approval with a black box. The move from $20 to $34 reflects that and improving sentiment for biotech stocks as we get beyond the election and look out to 2017. If label is clean I think we get a large move too but Spader also agrees with that. Double the price? Maybe on a short squeeze. I think that the chance of pimavanserin avoiding class labeling is about 1%. Why would the FDA risk that? We don't know what is causing the deaths with antipsychotics and there was a signal in the data. I'm a long time ACAD long too so this is not a soft bash. Just keeping it real.