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Apple Inc. Message Board

docnaka12 361 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 21, 2014 4:52 AM Member since: Nov 16, 2012
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  • ......there were less than 30 trading days when an investor who bought AAPL lost money if they held on to their shares today. In other words, anyone who bought AAPL from 1980 til now (except those 30 days) made money on their investment.

    Good reason to buy and hold.

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Mar 15, 2014 10:19 AM Flag

    @ Jimmy= It must have taken you a long time to read that article as it has been out for awhile now. 2013 was 3 months ago. In a similar report, IDC called 80% of Samsung's smartphone "junk". More importantly, Apple profited 87% of ALL smartphone profits which is typically a better indicator.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Why are people so sure Apple will do well?

    by zzed1 Mar 14, 2014 2:51 PM
    docnaka12 docnaka12 Mar 15, 2014 10:13 AM Flag

    What about their 87% profit share from smartphones. Not a bad strategy, sell less than the competitors but make pretty much all of the money.

    I agree however that a larger iphone is needed

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Why are people so sure Apple will do well?

    by zzed1 Mar 14, 2014 2:51 PM
    docnaka12 docnaka12 Mar 15, 2014 10:11 AM Flag

    More reasons: Without iPhones, Apple's would still be more profitable than GOOG. Still, Apple absolutely needs to find a new way to make money. IPay should be a huge success with their 700 million credit card subscribers which is larger than anyone else in the world. Have you seen Visa, Mastercard,DiscoverCard, etc? They are making tons of money and are among the top performing stocks of the past 3 years. This will be a larger boost than most think. The iWatch should be a small success also bringing in billions but not a game changer. Also, iTV will also bring in significant revenue but nothing like prior products. CarPlay and iBeacons have already been announced which will only help revenue and build their ecosystem. Combined, these products will have a large impact on Apple's success. I also predict that Apple will use their billions to purchase back more stock (inflating EPS) and lowering their already paltry PE ratio. Long story short, Apple is one of the few companies that sandbags their earnings which will be reflected in future quarters.
    Using any metric ie PE, PEG, ROI, etc, AAPL has no rival. And for those that argue that they have stopped growing, I can prove that through conservative accounting and accounting changes, AAPL is still growing substantially every year. (Once again, deferred revs, $21 tax, etc)
    Despite my belief in these products, Apple's growth story will NEVER be the same, but nobody can continue to grow at that pace. Instead, i will gladly take an increase of 13% in stock value (inc div) through 2015 with potential upside which is my prediction.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Why are people so sure Apple will do well?

    by zzed1 Mar 14, 2014 2:51 PM
    docnaka12 docnaka12 Mar 15, 2014 9:52 AM Flag

    Fair question. However, market share is only part of the picture.IDC showed that 80% of Android market share are junk phones that use Android but they are not capable of running games, app's as these older versions of Android are not upgradeable.More important is profit share where the iphone was estimated to have earned 87% of smartphone profits. With an ave.Selling price of $637,the average ASP of other smartphones is around $250. Now that is not to say that many new quality phones at lower prices are not available, but Apple clearly dominates the high end market. However, I agree that saturation is approaching which will hurt Apple's number, but brand loyalty and superior ecosystem will help Apple remain on top. Not to mention,Samsung is now testing their new OS system (Tizen) which will likely reduce the number of Android phones. Samsung is large enough and powerful enough to introduce a new OS which will not only be seen in phones, but in appliances, cars, etc.Regarding the note 3, it is no doubt a beautiful phone, but a bit impractical for adults (men).The screen is superior to iphones (except screen lag), battery replacement is nice, and 3gb is nice.However despite these "on paper" superior specs, users report problems with battery life and lack of storage. (this is another story) Still, the note 3 is an excellent option. But comparing the 4S is not fair is the 5S is a huge upgrade.
    Regarding Apple, if you simply look at their numbers they have $160 billion in cash and equivalents,they repurchased over 100 million shares which inflates EPS, they added $12 million in cash last quarter alone, they have over $11.5 billion in deferred revenue (profits not yet recognized),$22 billion in recognized taxes that will never be paid.This $22 billion could also have been considered op. profit if they elected to do so but would have needed to pay taxes on this money.If you take out the iphone, Apple's profits would have landed them as the #13 tech company in the world

  • With consensus estimates around $57.5 in revenue, but only $14.07 eps , and gross margins at 37.1%, analysts are underestimating improved margins this quarter. Without changing any unit sales numbers, the iPhone will have an ASP of $610-$625 and lower BOM. IPads are more difficult to guess the ASP since low cost of old mini, but supposedly half of ipad were of the Air variety with a low BOM. Gross margins for the air are estimated at 45%. Since iphones dominate Apple's profits (60-70%), they will have the greatest impact on gross margins. However, if you have 60% profits at 55% margins and 10% profits (air) with 45% margins, then 70% of the profits will average 52% gross margin. IF the remaining products have gross margins around 25% (historical average) then gross margins will come in at 43%. The low priced mini would likely lower this average and product mix may not be 50% Airs and new iPhones, so margins could conceivably be lower a couple of percentage points. Still, this would only drop margins by 2% OR 41%. With Apple's deferred revenue, gross margins will likely be affected by 1.5-2% meaning 39.5-39% gross margins. These are unrealistic so Ipod, accessories, etc will likely have gross margins lower than in past quarter. Still, I believe that gross margins will be around 37.9% which equates to an eps increase of 50 cents (depending on new share count) and $450 million in profits. The new eps would be $14.57 which is much more reasonable. Once again, this is using consensus revenue estimates at 37.1% margins but changing the margins to 37.9%.

  • Often overlooked is Apple's accounting methods which is very unique and HIDES (defers) revenues, misleading investors. Apple currently defers around $2.5 billion in revenue PER QUARTER with over $10 billion still to be realized. Since they recognize prior quarter's deferred revenues the net is about $1 billion in additional deferred revenue per quarter. Make no mistake about it, not only has this money already been collected, but most of this money is actually profit. In other words, Apple's revenue is indeed still growing by double digits and net profits, eps, margins,etc are grossly understated with the purpose behind these accounting methods to save them BILLIONS of dollars per quarter. In addition, Apple also OVERSTATES their foreign tax liability which they will NEVER pay (per Tim Cook) unless US corporate tax rates are reduced significantly. For instance, Apple estimated that they would pay over $13 billion in taxes but actually paid less than $6 billion in corporate taxes. The unused $7 billion that was supposed to be used for foreign taxes is actually PROFIT. Through these accounting methods, Apple not only pays very little foreign taxes, but categorizing the $7 billion as an expense rather than profit so it is also untaxed. Alternatively, Apple could categorize a large portion of the $7 billion as profit which would increase net profit, profit margins, EPS, etc and likely result in a much higher stock price. In fact, GOOG recentlhy shifted some foreign tax liability into profits in order to "beat" quarterly estimates last quarter.
    Don't believe me? Perform a search 1) Apple's deferred revenue impact 2) Apple "true tax rate". For these two reasons alone, AAPL is way undervalued.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Google vs. Apple

    by cardizemcd Jan 17, 2014 8:02 AM
    docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 17, 2014 9:47 PM Flag

    I like GOOG but if they were to double their net profit (from $10 billion to $20 billion) which is highly unlikely, the stock would be trading at 17 times earnings.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 17, 2014 9:42 PM Flag

    Pre-orders now at 1.4 million?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 4, 2014 7:23 PM Flag

    Perform a google search "China mobile pre orders"

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 4, 2014 4:44 PM Flag

    WOW!!!! Your account was just created 2 hours ago and you already have over 60 posts!!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I just read an article blaming AAPL's recent drop on the "low pre-orders" for China Mobile. However, I would not take the low pre-order number to mean very much as the benefit of pre-ordering allows a consumer to reserve an iPhone. Since the 5S and 5C are not new products and supply is plentiful, there is no need to pre-order a 5S or 5C which is why I believe only 100,000 people pre-ordered.

    There are several other possible plausible reasons: 1) Pre-orders capped at 100K. How come no more pre-orders allowed or have taken place? 2) No rate plans established yet. Some carriers have separate plans for iPhones due to data usage disparity. Would you sign up for a plan not knowing the terms yet? Are the phones going to be subsidized? If so, how much is the subsidy?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 3, 2014 1:58 AM Flag

    I just looked at your other posts and I feel too sorry for you to respond properly. In most of your posts, you feel the need to call someone a derogatory name and clearly are unhappy with your life. Having trouble selling real estate in Santa Cruz? Been hit in the head too many times by your surfboards.

    Regarding "functionality and speed", the 5S is clearly the fastest and "functionality" is debatable. Plenty of people (like me) prefer a smaller screen, hence my post.

    Keep puffing!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • I recently read an article saying Apple's screens suck so Samsung is the way to go. I have listed some reasons in MY order:

    1) Brand
    2) Speed
    3) Ecosystem
    4) Quality (Durability)
    5) Security
    5) User experience
    6) App's
    7) Screen size ( i like smaller)
    8) Cost
    9) operating system
    10) Functions
    11) Reception
    12) Camera
    13) software
    14) Battery life
    15) Customization
    16) Others?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Cook = Disaster for shareholders

    by scjohnson4047 Dec 19, 2013 9:49 AM
    docnaka12 docnaka12 Dec 23, 2013 9:24 PM Flag

    I would argue that Cook is more shareholder friendly than Jobs. Under Cook, AAPL now has a decent dividend, allowed a stock buyback, increased cash reserves, etc. Cook can not be blamed for stock price which has still performed VERY well under his tenure. The problem is, unhappy AAPL investors keep looking at AMZN, TSLA, GOOG, etc which are overpriced and can "pop" at any time. Believe it or not, AAPL is more stable than these companies and I will gladly take 20% annual returns. In fact, other than a 6 month period ranging from April 2012 to Oct 2012 where buying AAPL would have resulted in a loss, AAPL has rewarded investors handsomely. AAPL is NO LONGER a "get rich quick" stock but should still be considered.

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Dec 23, 2013 9:06 PM Flag

    Agreed. Also not mentioned is the fact that iphones will now be compatible on China Mobile's "3G/TD-SCDMA networks" which is important as the 4G network is not available everywhere.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Dec 23, 2013 7:08 PM Flag

    Why do you claim that they don't need or want data capability?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 1) Keep current iPhone
    2) Buy another phone
    3) Upgrade to new iphone

    It is estimated that China Mobile currently has 45 million iphone users already on their network. These phones are connected to 2G and do not take advantage of the new network. Logically, I presume that almost 100% of these customers will upgrade to a new iphone over the next 2 years. These are proven Apple loyalists that were willing to pay a lot of money for an inferior "gray market" iphone.

    I believe that these existing users are the key to the iphones success (or not) at China Mobile

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Nov 15, 2013 10:13 PM Flag

    Flawed article. For instance, they give the Iphone 12% market share on 30 million phones this past quarter. However, Apple already stated that they sold nearly 34 million iphones. This is a 10% difference. The IDC and Gartner are consistently wrong. More importantly, who cares about market share?

  • To show how flawed these numbers are, CG did not even include Lenovo, Huawei, and ZTW in their claim that Apple and Samsung have 109% of smartphone profits. To further demonstrate their inaccurate claims by Cannacord Genuity, some articles neglect to mention that TABLET sales for some ANDROID tablets are included in the "profits" since some vendors include these profits. Talk about misleading and inaccurate numbers.

    These companies consistently spew numbers out with little explanation and often contradict each other as well as their own statements. Take for instance Gartner's claim that the Iphone had 12% of the 3Q sales at 30 million units this past quarter. But wait, Apple already announced that they sold nearly 34 million units. This is a 10% difference.

    Sentiment: Buy

AAPL
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