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Apple Inc. Message Board

docnaka12 361 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 21, 2014 4:52 AM Member since: Nov 16, 2012
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  • ....for shorts.

    Sorry, but it sure does feel good though.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • A lot of articles talking about "market share" but "profit share" is much more important. For instance, Apple and Samsung and Apple make up nearly 100% of the profit share from smartphones. Meanwhile, Samsung is said to have 32% of the market vs 13 % for Apple worldwide. However, Apple is estimated to have 57% of the "profit share" to Samsung's 43% "profit share". Because neither company divulges exact numbers, these are only guesstimates and differ significantly from article to article. However, it is safe to say that Apple and Samsung are making the bulk of the smartphone profits with Samsung clearly having the greater market share and Apple clearly profiting the most from each smartphone.

    My question is....which company looks healthier long term and which company would you rather own?

    Company A : 32% of market share and 43% of the profits
    Company B: 13% of market share and 57% of the profits

    I can argue further that Samsung will LOSE market share compared to Apple (too many low end companies) and profits will decrease more for Samsung (will likely decrease for BOTH companies) since whoever sells the most high-end phones with greatest profit margin will obviously make the most money (which I believe is Apple)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Oct 21, 2013 4:04 AM Flag

    Apple sold 27 M units in the same quarter last year. How do you get a 7M unit drop from last year? IF Apple did indeed sell 34.5 M units, then you are looking at a 7.5 M unit increase YOY.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    iPhone 5c production being cut in half

    by frank_capra_04 Oct 10, 2013 2:08 PM
    docnaka12 docnaka12 Oct 14, 2013 7:16 PM Flag

    300K units per day is an incredible amount of phones. Last I read, they were only producing 150K iphone 5 per day which was not too long ago. This increased efficiency bodes well for margins and Apple's bottom line. You also failed to mention that 5S production has been increased by 33%.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    iPhone 5c production being cut in half

    by frank_capra_04 Oct 10, 2013 2:08 PM
    docnaka12 docnaka12 Oct 14, 2013 6:51 PM Flag

    Cheaper Phones? Even Samsung makes the bulk of their smartphone profits from mid to high end phones. Can you name another smartphone maker making money? No? That's cause there is NO money at the low-end market.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Low End Smartphone Market

    by docnaka12 Oct 14, 2013 2:44 PM
    docnaka12 docnaka12 Oct 14, 2013 6:42 PM Flag

    Which profits $350 per phone. Once again, name another phone profiting that much. In fact, $350 is more than ASP of most smartphones, let alone profit

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Low End Smartphone Market

    by docnaka12 Oct 14, 2013 2:44 PM
    docnaka12 docnaka12 Oct 14, 2013 4:37 PM Flag

    Sorry, I meant low end smartphone. I don't think that they will fit in Apple's ecosytem which is why I don't think that they should enter this market

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Apple clearly dominates the high-end market, yet many so-called experts feel that Apple should make a low-end phone to increase market share. Can anyone name any companies making money on these low-end phones? Samsung makes most if not all of their profits on high-end and mid-end smartphones. Since Apple and Samsung are the only two companies making real money on smartphones, why would Apple want to enter into the low-end crowded market? There are only a handful of companies making high-end phones, but hundreds of low-end companies making low end phones. Put another way, would you rather compete with 5 companies for $10 billion of potential profits or with 100 companies for $500 million potential profit.

    Not to mention, this would seriously tarnish Apple's reputation.

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Oct 14, 2013 2:15 PM Flag

    Agreed, which is why I am skeptical about his plan although it looks good on paper. He is only looking for a short term gain and does not have the company in his best interests.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Oct 14, 2013 2:12 PM Flag

    Sorry, not sure what you mean by "this" because the phones sold during the recent launch will be applied to last quarters numbers where they only sold 27 million iphones the same quarter a year ago (not 48 million as you state). I am assuming that this is the quarter that you are talking about and I believe that consensus estimates are around 30 million. Not to mention, last quarter's most accurate analyst (iphone numbers), Katy Huberty is estimating around 34.5 iphones. which would be a 28% increase YOY unit sales growth.

    However, the 9 million phones is controversial based on supply chain, but Apple still had a week after launch to sell more phones IF they were able to manufacture and ship them before Oct 1, 2013

    I am watching but definitely not learning.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Oct 14, 2013 1:29 PM Flag

    They were producing 300K per day so you did not account for the 2 months of 300K production per day which would amount to 18 million iPhones that are available but not accounted for in your calculations. However, I don't think that they were manufacturing the same amount of 5S's and 5C's. Therefore, 18 million - 8 million would mean 10 million more iphones to your 41 million for a total of 51 million. But wait, there is more, it was estimated that Apple sold around 15 million older models last quarter, if I were to significantly reduce that number to 10 million, our grand total is now 61 million. I am not saying that Apple will sell 61 million iphones and with likely higher margins than last year and likely decreased revenue from other product lines, growth is definitely more challenging. But, the buyback will also increase eps which will be perceived as growth.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Many articles have bashed Apple's decisions regarding the 5C, but I think that the 5C was a brilliant idea. It was a "win-win" situation for Apple who clearly struggles to meet iPhone demand. Production of the 5C is much easier and faster, so any 5C sales help Apple to sell more total phones at high margins. Think about it, Apple has been struggling to keep up with demand with the 5S. Had they only rolled out the 5S, they would have needed to wait another 2-4 weeks to produce the number of phones on the release date. Instead, AAPL was able to manufacture more phones (5C) and release them much earlier than if only the 5S existed. In other words, by releasing the 5C earlier than the 5S, Apple was able to sell many of their "cheaper" phones to buyers who would otherwise be waiting for a 5S and run the risk of losing a potential customer. Currently, buyers only have 2 choices if they want a new iPhone: 1) Wait 2 weeks for a 5S 2) Buy 5C instead. Once demand for the 5S wanes, Apple will likely choose to lower the price of the 5C as the difference in price between the two is relatively insignificant. Just in time for markets demanding a "cheap iPhone" who would now be saving $200 (assuming $100 price reduction) rather than a meager $100. This $200 price difference may then lure customers in the direction of the 5C. Not to mention, the 5C is a mild upgrade from the 5 which was discontinued, so the increased pricing and margins of the 5C will only help AAPL's bottom line or fundamentals
    Looking at this past Sept quarter, if Apple only sold 3 million 5C's, this increases revenue by about $2 billion, profits by 500 million, and eps by 60 cents a share. These numbers may not appear to be significant, but they could be the difference between a "miss" and meeting expectation or as I predict, a "beat" vs meeting expectations. Their is no doubt in my mind that AAPL will at least meet analysts recently raised estimates of $7.88, but .60 could send actual eps north of $8.00.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    iPhone 5S #1 selling smartphone in SEPTEMBER

    by docnaka12 Oct 12, 2013 1:47 AM
    docnaka12 docnaka12 Oct 12, 2013 1:22 PM Flag

    I agree that sales for the 5C appear to be a disappointment,but the fact that it was #2 at Sprint and ATT for September is definitely a good thing. It was also 3rd at Verizon and T-Mobile with only 10 days of availability in Sept

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Oct 12, 2013 12:51 PM Flag

    I just triple checked and although some articles are not very clear, many articles CLEARLY state "additional $150 billion buyback. Regarding your numbers, they only have $60 billion under the current buyback plan with the remaining $40 to be used for dividends.

    From Forbes, "Activist investor Carl Icahn met with Apple CEO Tim Cook over dinner last night to press the company to do an additional $150 billion share buyback, and said he will going to continue pushing the issue when the two talk again in three weeks."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Oct 12, 2013 12:51 PM Flag

    Perform Google search "AAPL additional $150 billion" MANY articles basically saying the same thing

    From Forbes, "Activist investor Carl Icahn met with Apple CEO Tim Cook over dinner last night to press the company to do an additional $150 billion share buyback, and said he will going to continue pushing the issue when the two talk again in three weeks."

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    iPhone 5S #1 selling smartphone in SEPTEMBER

    by docnaka12 Oct 12, 2013 1:47 AM
    docnaka12 docnaka12 Oct 12, 2013 4:07 AM Flag

    I definitely won't forget the buyback. Probably the most underestimated component to AAPL's fundamentals.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Oct 12, 2013 4:05 AM Flag

    No offense taken. However, I just double checked and multiple sites clearly say an "additional" $150 billion. Once again, I am not saying that Icahn is right (or wrong), but just crunching some numbers so people can get a feel for the impact on the stock. If ICahn's proposed buyback went through, I am sure that the buybacks would not occur right away unlike my example. Thanks for the feedback

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Yes, despite only selling for 10 days, the iPhone 5S was the #1 selling phone in the US for the month of Sept. With 20 extra selling days, the S4 could not compete The question is....How many 5S's were sold? If 9 million were "sold" during the initial week-end WORLDWIDE, at least the same number of 5s's must have been sold in 10 days in the US alone. This does NOT include 5c sales which AT LEAST came in with 4 million WORLDWIDE sales. If these assumptions are correct, no one had predicted 14 million NEW iphones sold in the September quarter which is good for revenue, profits, eps, pe, and margins. With ave. analyst estimates predicting 31 million iphone sales, this news obviously bodes well for AAPL come Oct 28. No wonder Cook raised his estimates. Let's say Apple sells 35 million phones and all other products remain the same YOY. This would increase revenue by about $2.5 billion, profit by $1 billion, eps by over $1.00, but most importantly, a return to growth.

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Oct 12, 2013 12:52 AM Flag

    If Kuo is correct, 11 million iphone 5C's shipped in September is still pretty good and positions the iPhone very well for the important fourth quarter. It has been reported that the iPhone 5S "sold" either 3:1 or 4:1more compared to the 5C. In other words, Apple likely shipped 35 to 45 million iPhone 5S's and 11.4 million iPhone 5C's for a total of 46-56 million new iPhones. Even if you halved this number, 23 to 28 million new iphones shipped in Sept alone is VERY solid. Most analysts predict anywhere from 9-15 million new iPhones sold for the Sept quarter. Obviously, not all of the shipped phones will count towards the Sept quarter, but once again, an Apple basher only confirms strong numbers for the past and upcoming quarters. It also means that Apple is able to manufacture A LOT of iPhones.

  • Both the stock buyback and $17 billion loan are "no brainers".Through the buyback and by borrowing $17 billion, AAPL was able to borrow money for next to nothing without tapping into their cash reserves.They would have been forced to use US money which is much smaller than money held overseas. The current interest on the loan is very low (vs 35% if they use money in Ireland )and tax deductible so it has little effect on income statement.With less outstanding shares, AAPL will save $3.7 billion in annual dividend payout. Most people fail to recognize this significant savings.Currently, there are around 910 million shares so a $150 billion buyback would drop the shares to 570 million. Not to mention, with $40 EPS for 2013 (2014 exp.$43), so the new EPS will be $65.79 and the new PE drops to 6.84. Furthermore, this does not include the current buyback which has $44 billion remaining. At the same buyback price, another 100 million shares will be gone dropping the outstanding shares to 470 million which in turn drops the PE to 5.8 w/ price at $450. Eventhough the likelihood that share price will be more attractive in 2013 than next year, AAPL needs to be careful not to buy back too many shares and inflate EPS too much as they need to demonstrate "growth". With careful planning, AAPL can pretty much control their growth rate based on how many shares they buy back. The perception that AAPL is growing will take pressure off the need to sell products which is obviously unpredictable. AAPL's large cash position, large profits, and healthy product line,AAPL is in terrific shape for at least 2 years which is an eternity for tech co. IF Apple introduces new products, they will contribute to AAPL's bottom line and eliminate the need for stock buybacks.Two things to look for 1)AAPL may not chose to use all of the money allotted for the stock buyback due to a significantly inc.stock price or confidence in product line 2)On the other hand, another stock buyback may indicate weakness

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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