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Apple Inc. Message Board

docnaka12 361 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 21, 2014 4:52 AM Member since: Nov 16, 2012
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  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Oct 11, 2013 2:51 AM Flag

    If 5C orders were cut to 15-20 million and the 5S is outselling the 5C 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 then TOTAL iphone 5 (5S and 5C) production would be in the 60 million (lowest total if lowered to 15 million and 3 to 1 ratio) to 100 million (highest total if lowered to 20 million and 4 to 1 ratio) range. IF this is your attempt to bash AAPL, I will take 60-100 million iphone 5 "build orders" any day of the week (or quarter). This does NOT even take into account iPhone 4's. This equates to $36 -$60 billion in revenue for the NEW iPhones alone. This does not take channel inventory into account, but it does not also take iPhone 4's into account.

    Surely you must have better material than this.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Oct 7, 2013 4:18 AM Flag

    Misek is a clown. However, this can only be good news for AAPL.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • To date, AAPL has used $16 billion to buyback shares with $44 billion earmarked to purchase additional shares through 2015. Although I believe that AAPL will purchase the majority of these shares in 2014 (or 2013) when the stock price is lower, I am using half of the $44 billion ($22 billion) in my example. With 908 million outstanding shares and an average purchase price of $483 (current price), the outstanding shares would be reduced to around 860 million. Using the average estimate ($42.99 EPS for 2014) of the 53 analysts on Yahoo, this number is equivalent to $45.39 with the new outstanding shares. Compared to the $40 EPS for 2013, the share buyback program will improve earnings growth by 13.5 % YOY for 2014.. Equally important, at the current price of $483, AAPL's PE drops to 10.64.

    Bear in mind, $40.00 EPS for 2013 is lower than $44.15 EPS for 2012 but this example shows the huge impact of the stock buyback program. Variables include average purchase price, amount of money used to purchase buyback for 2014, Actual EPS for 2013 and 2014, etc.

    Realistically speaking, I believe that APPL will use more than $22 billion to purchase shares as they have $145 billion (I know they can only use US money which is significantly less) and $45+ billion free cash flow expected in 2014. If they use $33 billion (instead of $22 billion) at the current price, the EPS becomes $47.89 with a PE of 10.08. This is one way for AAPL to once again become a growth stock without actually growing.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • I can't go a day without finding a new article posted by Gene "Freddie" Munster. He was one of the primary uber-Bulls that overestimated AAPL's 2012 CQ4 earnings that started Apple's huge stock decline. Despite producing the best quarter ever for any technology company, analysts' lofty expectations trivialized what should have been a very impressive quarter. Quarter after quarter, Gene Munster looked foolish for consistently overstating AAPL's quarterly numbers. After losing his investors (if he has any) boatloads of money, he continued to irresponsibly make claims that prove to be incorrect. However, now he appears to be an APPL bear bringing only negative comments about AAPL to the attention of investors. Once again, his "predictions" continue to miss the mark forcing him to write many follow-up articles explaining his thought process.

    My point? Analysts really need to be held accountable for their comments or some sort of grading system should be imposed so investors can determine the legitimacy of analyst articles. A system that holds analysts accountable would be beneficial to investors that are both pro and anti AAPL as well as other stocks.

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Sep 22, 2013 11:32 AM Flag

    If you are talking about Peter Misek (no Miske), he is notorious for being wrong about AAPL. In fact, he used to be an uber-Bull and even had a price target of $900 for AAPL in late 2012. Since then, he has turned bearish and changes his price target every couple of months. He has been COMPLETELY wrong about Apple's products and the subject of much scrutiny by other analysts.

    Perform a google search on Peter Misek if you want to learn more about him

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    APPLE SOLD SOOO MANY IPHONES!

    by ita_1972 Jan 20, 2013 2:34 AM
    docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 21, 2013 6:00 PM Flag

    Good point, but based on the article it sounds as if the prior quarter's numbers were the same as they base their cuts on "October-December levels". See below.

    "Apple has asked Japan Display, Sharp and LG Display Co Ltd to roughly halve supplies of LCD panels from an initial plan for about 65 million screens in January-March, the Nikkei cited people familiar with the situation as saying.
    Japan Display's plant in southwest Japan, where Apple has invested heavily, is expected to temporarily reduce output by up to 80 percent from October-December levels, the Nikkei reported, while Sharp's dedicated facility for iPhone 5 LCDs will trim production in January-February by about 40 percent."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 20, 2013 7:06 PM Flag

    $15.07

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    49ers and Apple Stockholders......

    by rogerjames55346 Jan 20, 2013 3:48 PM
    docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 20, 2013 6:03 PM Flag

    49ers!!!!!!!! AAPL is next!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    49ers and Apple Stockholders......

    by rogerjames55346 Jan 20, 2013 3:48 PM
    docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 20, 2013 4:03 PM Flag

    Absolutely the WORST post ever!!! Of all the garbage that I've ever read, your post takes the cake. I hope you don't bash the Giants cause it could end up ugly.

    Where are you from? I'll bet your team is already out.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Looking at PROFITS only

    by docnaka12 Jan 10, 2013 12:37 PM
    docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 20, 2013 3:41 PM Flag

    Getting closer to earnings day and I am still sticking to these numbers, but a bit worried about full size iPads. Supposedly, international sales of Mac are better than expected, but supplies still low on some products. Also, the more iphones that are sold, the better the margins.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Barron's article on AAPL's drop

    by dominics35 Jan 20, 2013 2:37 PM
    docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 20, 2013 3:26 PM Flag

    Many funds have maximum allocation percentages for their funds, so if AAPL represents a large percentage (over 7%?), they may be forced to sell AAPL to balance the portfolio. I also read somewhere that hedge funds do not need to disclose their positions until February. When they do disclose their holdings, it would be prudent to have a balanced portfolio. In other words, they can use AAPL to boost gains, but it would be wise to show a diversified portfolio to investors. If you look at 8 of the 10 best performing hedge funds of 2012, they all had AAPL as a significant part of their holdings. This MAY be the reason for the large sell off. I recently noticed that institutional investors accounted for 68% of AAPL which is down 2% in the past 4 months. That is pretty significant. I've heard similar logic as to why AAPL will never be a part of the DOW.

    I myself am HEAVILY overweight APPL as it's stock price has gone up 1000 percent since my initial investment. Still, I refuse to sell AAPL in order to balance my portfolio which goes against a basic investment principle, diversification.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    APPLE SOLD SOOO MANY IPHONES!

    by ita_1972 Jan 20, 2013 2:34 AM
    docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 20, 2013 4:55 AM Flag

    If they manufactured 65 million as stated in the article and sold 50 million of them in 12 Q4, this leaves 15 million units.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    APPLE SOLD SOOO MANY IPHONES!

    by ita_1972 Jan 20, 2013 2:34 AM
    docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 20, 2013 3:56 AM Flag

    If production is at 65 million per quarter like the article clearly stated, half that amount would be 32.5 million units. Therefore, if they sold 50 million units in 12 Q4, a surplus of 15 million would be added to the reduced production totaling 47.5 million units. 50 million vs 37 million is a HUGE quarter. Also, 40 million (12Q1) would be enormous.

    This increased production efficiency is really going to haunt shorts come Jan 23

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 20, 2013 1:52 AM Flag

    Actually, he is right. T-Mobile supposedly has 1.9 million users despite not selling the phone. They claim that about 100k new iPhone users join per month. Similarly, I read somewhere the China Mobile has 10+ million iPhone user on their 2G network.

    Do a google search on both: iPhone t-mobile and iPhone china mobile

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 19, 2013 10:39 PM Flag

    Once again, 15 million S3's and 8 million notes last quarter. How many iPhones do you think AAPL sold? 50 million? Also, despite only 17% market share, Appl makes 70% of smartphone profit or nearly $9 billion in 1 quarter alone.

    Just because Samsung wants to inflate their numbers by giving away free phones, it does not mean anything.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 19, 2013 10:25 PM Flag

    #1) ATT is losing market share to other US carriers as they were the first to offer the iPhone with exclusive rights.
    #2) Verizon since came out with an estimate of 5.75 million iPhones proving that they have taken market share away from ATT
    #3) iPhones growth is bigger in china so the 17% US market share is inaccurate since it is going down.
    #4) The iPhone launched in 33 new countries which only decreases the 17% number.

    Look at other iPhone predictions based on ATT sales and MOST of them predict 48 million units with BIG upside potential. The BIG upside potential is the unknown sales in these new countries.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 19, 2013 10:14 PM Flag

    Actually made me laugh. Apple could buy RIMM with the profits from last quarter. Currently, RIMM is NOT a player with only hope being a buy out.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 19, 2013 10:08 PM Flag

    For once, I agree with you. Apple can NOT sustain the same YOY growth, but NO ONE can. The fact that they did it so long is amazing, but 20-25% is not out of the question. However, your title says "no chance of earnings beat" which I would completely disagree with. Moving forward, AAPL is ONLY solid for another 2 quarters UNLESS they come up with some new innovation (iTV?) or can close the deal with China Mobile.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Andy Zaky

    by ace_92029 Jan 19, 2013 1:36 PM
    docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 19, 2013 10:05 PM Flag

    Not that I am a fan of Zaky, but how about E. Zabitsky who recommended shorting AAPL when it was around $200 per share? He has a $270 price target. Similar situation with Doug Kass ( a lot of press lately) who had a price target of $90 since 2010. If you pick an analyst in the middle or use an average, AAPL is still a screaming buy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 19, 2013 9:56 PM Flag

    Do you know that they keep inventory from the prior quarter? With 65 million units manufactured, they will likely have 15 million in surplus to sell in Q2. Add this number to 32.5 and you get 47.5 million. They sold 26 million the same quarter last year. Also, the S3 just sold 15 million in the holiday quarter.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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