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Apple Inc. Message Board

docnaka12 361 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 21, 2014 4:52 AM Member since: Nov 16, 2012
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  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 14, 2013 3:21 PM Flag

    By "This qtr", I am assuming that you mean Q1 calendar and not this past quarter with numbers to be released on Jan 23, 2013. To clarify, JPM predicts 25 million iPhone 5's for the calendar Q1. Your post is misleading. In addition, This number is above consensus and on track for a better YOY Q2 from the previous year.

    I would take 40 million iphones (based on this "downgrade") vs 35 million from the previous year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 12, 2013 4:37 PM Flag

    In order for them to miss, they would need to miss in one of the five following categories. 1) iTunes/software/etc. = This will DEFINITELY be higher as indicated by the 20+ billion downloads in 2012 alone. This is a given. 2) IPODs= This will be DOWN, but considering that this is NOT a big part of their income/revenue, it is not a big deal. 3) Macs= This will likely be down also, but only about $200-300 million. In other words, items 1-3 should be a wash. 4) Ipads are much more difficult to calculate. They clearly sold a minimum of 8 million minis and possibly up to 10 million based on supply constraints. This will gross around $2.4 bilion while netting around $800-950 million. However, the regular ipad is the BIG question mark. How much did the mini cannibalize the larger iPad? With newer versions and a broader roll out, I believe that this number will be similar to a year ago. Once again, the lowest analyst estimate that I have read is 8 million minis and 13 million regular iPads which would be more profitable than last year 5) The BIGGEST number is in the form of the iPhones which generates over 50% of the income. The range of ALL analysts is 43 million to 66 million which is far greater than 37 million a year ago. If they come in at the low end (43 million), this equates to $3.5 billion in revenue and $2.25 billion in profits. If we are being fair, they also had an extra week in the quarter last year which helped boost numbers. It is impossible to determine net profits since no one know operational costs, but margins will DEFINITELY be lower due to new product introductions. Still, these MINIMUM numbers (in my opinion) equates to over $2.00 eps. With an eps of $13.87 last year, AAPL is looking at a new eps of around $15.87 MINIMUM. It would be fair to note that profit margins were at 44% last year and are expected to come in around 39-41 % which could hurt numbers.

    I have already challenged ANY shorts to question my numbers, but they have yet to respond intelligently. Personally, I can only see Ipod profits dropping these numbers (approx. $1 billion) and iPads since no one really knows the profits per item on the mini (should be around $95 profit per mini) and no one knows the extent of the cannibalization (if any).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 11, 2013 8:40 PM Flag

    Bottom line, would you rather make $8.2 billion like Samsung or $14 billion like Apple? Don't get me wrong I really like Samsung too, but they have a lot of obstacles to overcome. There are MANY more players in the low-end smartphone market these days. How about Apple switching away from Samsung's LCD's and chips? Also, Google may start squeezing Samsung as Google hopes to "build" Motorola.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Looking at PROFITS only

    by docnaka12 Jan 10, 2013 12:37 PM
    docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 11, 2013 7:31 PM Flag

    Agreed. I would love to see a split, but this is just not Apple's style. Still, i am guessing that they will announce an increased dividend on Jan 23rd.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Looking at PROFITS only

    by docnaka12 Jan 10, 2013 12:37 PM
    docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 11, 2013 4:26 PM Flag

    And they say that Apple lacks innovation.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Looking at PROFITS only

    by docnaka12 Jan 10, 2013 12:37 PM
    docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 10, 2013 8:52 PM Flag

    At least come up with some new material. You used this same line in previous posts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Personally, I hope that Apple does NOT manufacture a "cheap" phone. Why not just use the current iPhone 4 and change some of the specs? It currently costs around $175 to manufacture, but cheaper components (ie chips, etc) and mass production could easily drop the cost to around $100 per unit. The phone could sell for $250-$300 which would be subsidized by the carrier. "Quality" would NOT be compromised (too much) and start-up manufacturing costs would be unnecessary. Apple would make $150-$200 per unit which would cater to the "low-end" users that would not normally purchase Apple products. More importantly, it brings millions of users into the Apple ecosystem which is an addiction within itself.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 by docnaka12 Jan 10, 2013 12:37 PM Flag

    I have yet to see this approach, but looking at profits per item, how can Apple miss? I am using numbers that I believe are close, but NOT fact.

    ipad mini = $100 profit per item (might be slightly high $90 likely)
    iPhone = $425 average per item
    ipad (full size) = $210 average per item

    Therefore, the mini will have little affect on earnings as 8 million (minimum) is a given. If they do indeed beat by 2 million minis, this equates to only $200 million in profits or less than 25 cents per share. I believe that the final profit will be around $800 miliion.

    The regular sized ipad should come in about the same as a year ago. Despite being introduced to new markets and slight improvement, I think that "cannibalization" will offset any increased numbers. However, there is probably a 2 million deviation EITHER way (+ or - 2 million). Once again, we are NOT talking huge numbers as a 2 million difference is equal to about $400 million. I am going to say that YOY quarterly growth is zero for arguments sake.

    The real PROFITS will come in the form of the iPhone. There is speculation over which phone is selling better (4S vs 5). The 4S profit margin is reportedly 70%, so I don't see a problem if they sold more 4S's than 5's. Still, Apple will OBVIOUSLY sell more than 37 million iPhones from last year. I am going to use 46 million iphones with a standard deviation of 5 million. The extra 9 million iphones should amount to a profit of about $3.75 billion.

    Last year's profits were $13 billion and with my new numbers profits would be around $16.75 billion. Assuming that operating expenses went up, we could drop this number down to $15 billion in profits. Personally, I feel that this number is pretty conservative. The EPS would be $15.92 vs $13.87 from last quarter. Obviously, the ONLY way Apple does not meet these numbers is if they are on the LOW END OF ALL OF MY ESTIMATES.

    Just another way to look at the "numbers game"

    Note: Ipods, Macs and "other" are insignificant with likely decrease in mac and ipods equaling "other" (itunes and software) category

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Pretty interesting that t-mobile has 2 million users despite not selling the iphone yet.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 8, 2013 6:48 PM Flag

    I'm glad that I can make you laugh.

    I remember you now, you are that idiot anti-semite that claims NOT to be racist. Looking at your posting history, you are not a well-liked individual. As long as I can continue to bring humor to your otherwise pathetic life, keep reading!!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 8, 2013 6:34 PM Flag

    What answer are you referring to? I don't recall asking a question. Once again, I think that you are on the wrong post looking at your history.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 8, 2013 6:30 PM Flag

    Let's say that you are correct for arguments sake. This means that Apple will sell over 7 million more iphones than the same time last year despite the extra week last year. This means $4.5 BILLION more in revenue than last year. Since this is more than 50% of earnings, APPLE will have a better quarter and is still growing and AAPL's pe will shrink once again increasing the "value" of AAPL.

    NOT the best numbers, but definitely not the worst.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 8, 2013 5:55 PM Flag

    Doug Kass called Apple "one trick pony" in 2010 when stock was around $130.

    How did that work out for him or his investors?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 8, 2013 5:48 PM Flag

    @ Kekekakah = I believe that you posted on the wrong topic.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 8, 2013 5:46 PM Flag

    He's a bond guy. If I am not mistaken ( I could be), it is rumored that he covered his short position.

    However, there is NO WAY that AAPL drops to $425 in 2013.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 8, 2013 5:06 PM Flag

    Truth is....many people have lost a lot (including me from $705 high), but most people (including me) are up LOTS more. (31.5% in 2012 alone)

    Truth is..... no one know where Apple stock is headed.

    Truth is....Doug Kass has been an Apple bear since 2009 when the stock was around $90.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • SERIOUSLY, I would like to hear solid arguments AGAINST Apple from someone knowledgeable.

    Bruce Greenwald= Apple bear since $390 ish
    Edward Zabitsky= Apple bear since $150 ish
    Doug Kass= Apple bear since $90 ish

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 8, 2013 1:20 PM Flag

    This actually made me chuckle. Bankrupt? Just because a few incompetent analysts (Kass, Zabitsky, etc) don't like Apple, you claim bankruptcy. How about the other 50 analysts? What about an average price target near $750?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    APPLES IPHONE SALES

    by jewdefleg Jan 8, 2013 11:57 AM
    docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 8, 2013 12:11 PM Flag

    Once again, Doug kass has been an Apple bear since 2009 when the stock traded around $90. He re-iterated sell in 2010 at $120 ish. NO CREDIBILITY.

    This is OLD material

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 8, 2013 11:31 AM Flag

    Do you mean last quarter when they enjoyed the BEST CALENDAR THIRD QUARTER BY ANY COMPANY EVER? Samsung just reported the same profits yesterday and this was a "record quarter for Samsung". Apple will profit around $14 billion this quarter compared to $13 + billion at the same time last year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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