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Apple Inc. Message Board

docnaka12 361 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 21, 2014 4:52 AM Member since: Nov 16, 2012
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  • docnaka12 by docnaka12 Oct 25, 2013 8:26 PM Flag

    Tim cook never talks about rumors or news. However, he mentioned that earnings would be at the high end of guidance. Obviously he would not have said anything unless he was 100% certain when the numbers come in high he would have been accused of low balling. Therefore, it is an absolute certainty that Apple will not disappoint.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Both the stock buyback and $17 billion loan are "no brainers".Through the buyback and by borrowing $17 billion, AAPL was able to borrow money for next to nothing without tapping into their cash reserves.They would have been forced to use US money which is much smaller than money held overseas. The current interest on the loan is very low (vs 35% if they use money in Ireland )and tax deductible so it has little effect on income statement.With less outstanding shares, AAPL will save $3.7 billion in annual dividend payout. Most people fail to recognize this significant savings.Currently, there are around 910 million shares so a $150 billion buyback would drop the shares to 570 million. Not to mention, with $40 EPS for 2013 (2014 exp.$43), so the new EPS will be $65.79 and the new PE drops to 6.84. Furthermore, this does not include the current buyback which has $44 billion remaining. At the same buyback price, another 100 million shares will be gone dropping the outstanding shares to 470 million which in turn drops the PE to 5.8 w/ price at $450. Eventhough the likelihood that share price will be more attractive in 2013 than next year, AAPL needs to be careful not to buy back too many shares and inflate EPS too much as they need to demonstrate "growth". With careful planning, AAPL can pretty much control their growth rate based on how many shares they buy back. The perception that AAPL is growing will take pressure off the need to sell products which is obviously unpredictable. AAPL's large cash position, large profits, and healthy product line,AAPL is in terrific shape for at least 2 years which is an eternity for tech co. IF Apple introduces new products, they will contribute to AAPL's bottom line and eliminate the need for stock buybacks.Two things to look for 1)AAPL may not chose to use all of the money allotted for the stock buyback due to a significantly inc.stock price or confidence in product line 2)On the other hand, another stock buyback may indicate weakness

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 by docnaka12 Jan 3, 2013 11:31 PM Flag

    How come there is so much negative sentiment against Apple? All Apple needs to do to beat last year's numbers is outproduce last year's numbers. Apple has 2 MAIN issues which are profit margins (44% tough to match) and the extra week last quarter. With large sales, I believe that Apple's profit margin will come in at 41.5% which ain't too shabby. However, iphone sales account for over 50% of AAPL's profits. Apple sold 37 million iPhones last year and will easily beat that this year. Apple should sell around 50 million (plus or minus 3 million) which is worth over $8 billion in revenue alone. Apple will obviously sell more total iPads this year (vs 15.5 million last year), but cannibalization remains the only question. Still, AAPL should sell at least 8 million minis which add $2.5 billion in revenue. These two products increase revenue by $10.5 billion alone so we are now at $46.3 + $10.5 = $56.8 revenues. I am guessing that iPod sales went down, but this should be negligible at maybe a $500 million loss. Assuming that Macs are a wash (despite new line up), my "others" category (including itunes) will undoubtedly be higher than last year. Still, I will NOT include these in my final numbers. I believe that my numbers are conservative, so upside potential may be huge as some expect Apple to sell 55+ million iPhones and 27+ million iPads. Remember, Apple has NEVER missed "guidance" in the modern era which stands at $52 billion.

    Please let me know what I am missing. Serious answers please. I even emailed Edward Zabitsky who has a $270 price target and "short" recommendation who only wished me luck.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ...very clearly stated, "Don't bet against Apple."

    If anyone knows, he knows.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 by docnaka12 Jan 10, 2013 12:37 PM Flag

    I have yet to see this approach, but looking at profits per item, how can Apple miss? I am using numbers that I believe are close, but NOT fact.

    ipad mini = $100 profit per item (might be slightly high $90 likely)
    iPhone = $425 average per item
    ipad (full size) = $210 average per item

    Therefore, the mini will have little affect on earnings as 8 million (minimum) is a given. If they do indeed beat by 2 million minis, this equates to only $200 million in profits or less than 25 cents per share. I believe that the final profit will be around $800 miliion.

    The regular sized ipad should come in about the same as a year ago. Despite being introduced to new markets and slight improvement, I think that "cannibalization" will offset any increased numbers. However, there is probably a 2 million deviation EITHER way (+ or - 2 million). Once again, we are NOT talking huge numbers as a 2 million difference is equal to about $400 million. I am going to say that YOY quarterly growth is zero for arguments sake.

    The real PROFITS will come in the form of the iPhone. There is speculation over which phone is selling better (4S vs 5). The 4S profit margin is reportedly 70%, so I don't see a problem if they sold more 4S's than 5's. Still, Apple will OBVIOUSLY sell more than 37 million iPhones from last year. I am going to use 46 million iphones with a standard deviation of 5 million. The extra 9 million iphones should amount to a profit of about $3.75 billion.

    Last year's profits were $13 billion and with my new numbers profits would be around $16.75 billion. Assuming that operating expenses went up, we could drop this number down to $15 billion in profits. Personally, I feel that this number is pretty conservative. The EPS would be $15.92 vs $13.87 from last quarter. Obviously, the ONLY way Apple does not meet these numbers is if they are on the LOW END OF ALL OF MY ESTIMATES.

    Just another way to look at the "numbers game"

    Note: Ipods, Macs and "other" are insignificant with likely decrease in mac and ipods equaling "other" (itunes and software) category

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • A lot of articles talking about "market share" but "profit share" is much more important. For instance, Apple and Samsung and Apple make up nearly 100% of the profit share from smartphones. Meanwhile, Samsung is said to have 32% of the market vs 13 % for Apple worldwide. However, Apple is estimated to have 57% of the "profit share" to Samsung's 43% "profit share". Because neither company divulges exact numbers, these are only guesstimates and differ significantly from article to article. However, it is safe to say that Apple and Samsung are making the bulk of the smartphone profits with Samsung clearly having the greater market share and Apple clearly profiting the most from each smartphone.

    My question is....which company looks healthier long term and which company would you rather own?

    Company A : 32% of market share and 43% of the profits
    Company B: 13% of market share and 57% of the profits

    I can argue further that Samsung will LOSE market share compared to Apple (too many low end companies) and profits will decrease more for Samsung (will likely decrease for BOTH companies) since whoever sells the most high-end phones with greatest profit margin will obviously make the most money (which I believe is Apple)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Dec 23, 2012 1:56 AM Flag

    Gene Munster (Piper Jaffray) is Apple's #1 fan. You are intentionally spreading lies. His price target is $900 and Apple is one of his top stock picks for 2013. You and your other aliases (sheep skinner, music head, etc) should be banished from this board.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Yes, despite only selling for 10 days, the iPhone 5S was the #1 selling phone in the US for the month of Sept. With 20 extra selling days, the S4 could not compete The question is....How many 5S's were sold? If 9 million were "sold" during the initial week-end WORLDWIDE, at least the same number of 5s's must have been sold in 10 days in the US alone. This does NOT include 5c sales which AT LEAST came in with 4 million WORLDWIDE sales. If these assumptions are correct, no one had predicted 14 million NEW iphones sold in the September quarter which is good for revenue, profits, eps, pe, and margins. With ave. analyst estimates predicting 31 million iphone sales, this news obviously bodes well for AAPL come Oct 28. No wonder Cook raised his estimates. Let's say Apple sells 35 million phones and all other products remain the same YOY. This would increase revenue by about $2.5 billion, profit by $1 billion, eps by over $1.00, but most importantly, a return to growth.

  • Reply to

    Common sense

    by docnaka12 Oct 25, 2013 8:26 PM
    docnaka12 docnaka12 Oct 25, 2013 8:42 PM Flag

    When they announced the 5s and 5c sales after the first weekend, they said that revenues would come in at the high end of guidance as well as margins.

    Unless people don't believe Cook, I don't know how anyone can predict decreased revenue from the sept quarter last year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 4, 2013 10:01 PM Flag

    Let me start by saying that there is a lot of conflicting news out there since a recent article claims that the Chinese will be paid triple time to work through the Chinese New Year to meet huge demand. Regarding this article, the first thing that I take away from this is that if they did indeed ship 40-45 million iPhone 5's, this bodes well for this upcoming quarter. Apple sold 37 million iPhones the same quarter last year (best quarter ever) so 40-45 million is a HUGE number. Also, iPhone 4's which are expected to be well over 10 million means that Apple will sell over 50 million iPhones. As you know, the iPhone accounts for over 50% of Apple's revenue with the biggest profit margin (70%), so if this news is correct, Apple will BLOWOUT guidance.

    Regarding LCD panels, Apple uses 3 suppliers (LG, Samsung and Chunghwa), so they could be shifting suppliers. Regarding the 30% QoQ decrease, as stated in the article selling 28-30 million iPhone 5's would still be amazing since another 10 + million iPhone 4's would be sold totaling over 40 million for the quarter. This would once again be much higher than the 26 million sold the same quarter the previous year.

    However, the article loses all credibility when it says "strong likelihood of major shortfalls from guidance," as Apple has NEVER missed guidance in the modern era. Apple is well-known to low-ball all guidance

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 1) Keep current iPhone
    2) Buy another phone
    3) Upgrade to new iphone

    It is estimated that China Mobile currently has 45 million iphone users already on their network. These phones are connected to 2G and do not take advantage of the new network. Logically, I presume that almost 100% of these customers will upgrade to a new iphone over the next 2 years. These are proven Apple loyalists that were willing to pay a lot of money for an inferior "gray market" iphone.

    I believe that these existing users are the key to the iphones success (or not) at China Mobile

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 1, 2013 1:26 AM Flag

    You are a CLOWN!!!!!! First, you copy my post "Fear Does Not Exist In This Dojo" on Dec 7th and now you claim to be a "BULL" despite your anti-AAPL sentiment in previous posts.

    Get some new material!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • During the flight, I could see 12 seats. In these 12 seats I saw 2 iPads, 1 iPad mini, 6 iPhones.

    At Disneyworld, EVERYONE and their mother (literally) were playing with handhelds in long lines. I would probably say that 80% of these devices were iPhones. I know that this is not representative of the market share, but it is consistent with the Verizon salesperson who claimed that people looking for a deal bought Samsung, but most people NOT concerned about money purchased an iPhone. She also claimed that people UNCERTAIN of which smartphone to buy did NOT purchase an iPhone looking for a better value in Samsung (or others).

    Before this trip, I thought that perhaps working blocks away from Jobs' old house in Palo Alto and living in the Silicon Valley, that there may be an "Apple Bias" where I live. Although this possibility still remains, my second theory is that the "wealthy" OR those that don't care as much about money have Apple products. This is also based on the fact that although Apple only has about 17% smartphone market share, over 70% of the purchases made by smartphones are made from an iPhone.

    This is not to say that wealthy people do not buy Samsung (or others), but merely a generalization that people willing to spend more money are more inclined to have an iPhone over other products. Disneyworld is by no means a cheap vacation with park fees close to $90 per person. I was absolutely amazed at how much people spent on Disney products, i.e. hats, shirts, balloons, etc. I know that a lot of people will disagree with this email, but I would love to hear some other observations from people at Disneyworld.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I'll take those numbers (+ 2% dividend) ANY year. IF stock price were to increase the same percentage next year, AAPL would close at $700 at EOY. Personally, I would be satisfied with this number BUT I am expecting GROWTH AND a larger return.

    Thanks for the money AAPL!!!! Shorts can say what they want, but 31.5% returns should speak for itself.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • With the "fiscal cliff", panic selling, etc, NOBODY can predict Apple's short term direction. I've heard from the best chartists, fundamentalists, and the "great" Jim Cramer, and none of them have been consistently correct.

    That being said, one thing is for certain, Apple will be MUCH higher in the next few months. The question is..will you take part in the ride or will you miss the ride trying to time Apple stock? People will cry "foul play", but Apple will shoot straight up. It is fundamentally too strong and caught in the middle of one of the greatest technological revolutions.of all time. Believe it or not, many companies can co-exist (yes even Samsung) in the immediate future with many "winners", but Apple is undoubtedly the leader at this time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Nov 7, 2013 10:18 PM Flag

    The itunes cards are only a small portion of this number with deferred revenues including AppleCare and other support contracts, which carry high margins and are also sold up front but get recognized upon expiration. Software is deferred over a two year period or, in the case of Macs, four years, along with iTunes gift cards and any credits in the App Store which haven’t been spent yet. In Apple's quarterly filings, they disclosed " it recognizes revenue from its new iPhone as well as the iPod and Macintosh computers under software revenue recognition rules. Apple will record all revenue and related costs of sales from the iPhone on a straight-line basis over the two-year estimated life of this product. Historically, many hardware companies might have recognized revenue upfront, at the time of the sale, from a product similar to an iPhone. However, Apple intends to provide iPhone users with free software upgrades, necessitating the deferral of revenue under SOP 97-2."


    Sentiment: Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Dec 31, 2012 7:19 PM Flag

    Since when is "buy and hold" one of the've heard so far. It is a terrific long term investment strategy ESPECIALLY during periods of volatility like now.

    Did you forget? AAPL opened the year near $400 per share?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Dec 26, 2012 9:55 PM Flag

    I have an iPad mini and my kids just received $300 in iTunes gift cards for x-mas. Regarding Apple's "missed" numbers last quarter, they had $36 billion in revenue and a net profit of $8.2 billion. I challenge you to name ANY other company with BETTER NUMBERS IN THE THIRD CALENDAR YEAR. Let me give you a hint, there is none. Apple has the BEST third quarter ever, better than any other company in the world. As a better indicator, maybe use Apple's guidance which they have beat year after year after year. If Apple does NOT beat guidance, the ENTIRE world is in trouble because that means people are not spending money.

    On a side note, Apple stores are absolutely packed here in northern california. I personally know the manager and he claims the the mini is IMPOSSIBLE to get, iPhones are selling like crazy, and the stores are always busy. When I activated my iPhones at Verizon the rep said the BOTH Samsung and Iphones are selling better than ever!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 4, 2013 12:42 AM Flag

    I think that it is Eric Zabitsky with his $270 price target. He has been recommending "shorting" APPLE since 2010 saying it would drop to $126. How can he still be an analyst? We are talking 3 years of Apple bashing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • docnaka12 docnaka12 Jan 11, 2013 8:40 PM Flag

    Bottom line, would you rather make $8.2 billion like Samsung or $14 billion like Apple? Don't get me wrong I really like Samsung too, but they have a lot of obstacles to overcome. There are MANY more players in the low-end smartphone market these days. How about Apple switching away from Samsung's LCD's and chips? Also, Google may start squeezing Samsung as Google hopes to "build" Motorola.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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