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ERBA Diagnostics, Inc. Message Board

doctorsnowman 36 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 27, 2016 3:00 PM Member since: Nov 13, 2002
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  • doctorsnowman by doctorsnowman Jan 27, 2016 3:00 PM Flag

    We can all agree on one thing for sure. The crazy poster with all the aliases has posted literally thousands of posts on this board. Not one of them about ERB. All delusional posts about other posters including his own aliases and conspiracy theories of different shapes and sizes.

    This makes it extremely easy to put all his aliases on ignore and to tell who on this board is real or fiction.

  • Reply to

    ERBA wii do fine. Do not sell.

    by svksudupa Jan 22, 2016 10:22 AM
    doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Jan 24, 2016 10:05 PM Flag

    49M 19M 82%

    Here is the math on the float.

    We know from Yahoo as well as ERB that Suresh alone owns 82% of the co. That does not include other insiders. To my knowledge there has never been any insider selling. However here has been many millions in insider buying most recently with the $3M Suresh bought.

    Let's be conservative and say total non public float stock help by insiders is 85%. 85% of 49M is 41,650,000 shares. The leftover or float shares equal 7,350,000. The true float is likely much smaller than that as there are all kinds of shares in hands that likely cannot or will not sell. So my guess is it is around 5M shares in the float.

    Yahoo says the float is 19M shares while as we can see it is closer to 5M. I am not sure how they messed it up. I think hey likely counted Suresh's purchases as additional float. Clearly Suresh can never sell and is not only the majority shareholder but also the chairman of the board. On a conf call ERB explained this and said they had alerted Yahoo of the error. But it is still on Yahoo incorrectly.

    This is yet another example of how doing a little DD can be of great benefit in a micro cap stock.

  • Reply to

    ERBA wii do fine. Do not sell.

    by svksudupa Jan 22, 2016 10:22 AM
    doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Jan 24, 2016 8:09 PM Flag

    What I find interesting is that for the exact reasons some people have sold, I have bought. There is a 180 degree different view on the financials getting straightened out by the new CFO.

    A skeptic can view that as incompetency or worse some kind of conspiracy or dishonesty.

    A optimist will view it as a positive that ERB has hired a new qualified CFO as well Krishna and others to position the co for major growth and profitability. And will believe the co when they say it will amount to restating around $300K per quarter for the past 8 quarters which is immaterial economically.

    So the analysis of recent events is either tat ERB is worth zero by bears or on the way to $20 by bulls. With such a tiny float and tinier trading volume it takes nothing to move the stock. I am thrilled to be buying at these prices and will buy more while it lasts.

    BTW Yahoo has the float completely incorrect. The co. announced that on a con call. But Yahoo still shows it incorrectly. It is 10 million shares less than it says on Yahoo. But again if people think it is larger and get scared and sell the better for buyers.

  • Reply to

    ERBA wii do fine. Do not sell.

    by svksudupa Jan 22, 2016 10:22 AM
    doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Jan 23, 2016 6:32 PM Flag

    Obviously ERB with a tiny 5 M share float and close to zero trading volume is not a short term investment. Anyone trying to trade it and or investing for the very short term would be somewhat misguided and missing the big picture.

    I have said when ERB Is at $4 and at $1 the same thing. Longer term ERB can get to $20. This may be a few months or a few years. Either way if ERB trades $20 it is one of the best investments I have seen.

    If ERB trades $20 sooner or later. Either way. In between ERB will go up AND down. Every time ERB trades down, like right now, some weak holders sell. It is a weeding out process. For ERB to trade $20 the weak holders need to sell. It is all very healthy.

    The fundamentals are really my only concern. Fundamentally ERB is doing exactly as we should hope. Getting a new CFO and their financial reporting in order is something we have been waiting for a year or more. Now finally it is happening. And a few weak holders and people on this board interperet that negatively. No reason to argue about it. Just wait to see.

    The point is very few investors understand ERB's business and their plans. It is under the radar still. As soon as they get their house in order and make the promised moves that will change. By then a whole new group of investors will be involved who understand and believe in the growth and exciting future ahead. Can't wait.

  • Reply to

    ERBA wii do fine. Do not sell.

    by svksudupa Jan 22, 2016 10:22 AM
    doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Jan 22, 2016 8:42 PM Flag

    Thanks to all those who sold today. Time will tell whether it is wise to buy or sell at these prices at this time.

    Healthy for people to sell. Weeding out process. If one is nervous holding ERB they should sell. Lots to worry about:

    Earnings are late as they have been before.
    Maybe new CFO does not know what she is doing?
    Restatement of fcls points to fraud?
    ERB closed the entire business down to reopen in a much larger building creating losses.
    Maybe the 3X larger facility and new mfg will not work as well as the older smaller units?
    Maybe the now abandoned RE they left cannot be sold and is worth next to nothing?
    Miami RE might be in a depression any day?
    They hired a new CFO, CEO, COO, Head of sales... New mgmt worse than those they replaced?
    New mgmt getting paid much larger salaries than their predecessors - adding to expenses.
    New mgmt from (orders of magnitude) larger public cos than ERB cannot run tiny ERB?
    Chmn/majority shareholder bought another few million $s worth of ERB stock. Dilution?
    Maybe the chmn is trying to steal the co away from shareholders?

    We shall see.

  • Reply to

    New

    by fugitive6129 Jan 18, 2016 3:19 PM
    doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Jan 19, 2016 3:21 PM Flag

    Look at the last sale in Wynwood a block away. Multiply the price psf paid times ERB's square footage. Comes to around 90 cents per share.

    Now add the NOL, take the corp tax rate and NPV of the tax loss carry forward and you get around another 25 cents per share.

    The two together equal $1.15 per ERB share.

    Obviously it is not relevant to future sales and earnings and multiples thereof. Other than the effect of the extra cash earning a return, elimination of any debt expense, elimination of the non cash depreciation expense on the old RE (the new RE is leased not owned), and the reduction or elimination of taxes paid until the nOL is used up...

    Just an interesting fact to look at the book value and or asset value involved. Far greater than the the RE and NOL is the value of the 500 FDA and CE approved products. I suppose if you were a perm bear on ERB you could say ERB is a hoax and there are no products and or no profitable business there. Then this examination of asset values could serve as a valuation metric in terms of determining downside in the stock.

    In other words in the worst of all circumstances like a bankruptcy or something crazy like that it appears the assets are worth far more than the current stock price. So if the downside is nothing or practically nothing, what is the upside if ERB does what they say? $1B in sales with $150M in earnings - $50 - $150 per share stock price.

    Call me crazy but I do not know of another stock that is trading as if it is worse tan bankrupt and at the same time has 10x - 100X upside potential. But that's just me. And I can be wrong and still make 5X - 10X my money which is still a crazy high return.

  • Reply to

    New

    by fugitive6129 Jan 18, 2016 3:19 PM
    doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Jan 19, 2016 9:43 AM Flag

    Agree the RE is just a bonus. Equates to close to $1 of cash upon a sale. ERB has no significant debt and none on the RE save $100K or $200K. They do have a large NOL to help defray gains of $10M - $20M. Not sure the exact number. The NOL and RE are hidden assets that are worth more than the current stock price. That gives the value of the business a negative value. Hard to believe. Just waiting for that to change and taking advantage by buying shares.

  • Reply to

    Why does Suresh want ERB?

    by fugitive6129 Jan 15, 2016 3:12 PM
    doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Jan 17, 2016 10:23 PM Flag

    Fugi - My perspective is that it is not that ERB does not care about minority shareholders. It is that as a result of their making all these moves to get the company to grow many fold they have disappointed shareholders and or it has taken longer than they thought.

    For example closing down the manufacturing and creating a new manufacturing line or lines in a new larger facility clearly took them longer than they would have liked. Perhaps the fact that they have hundreds of FDA approved products and all that living tissue made things take a lot longer? That is probably the reason. But in any event that took longer to do and cost more money and was disappointing.

    While the RE is for sale and they will sell it. It has not sold yet.

    Adding all the new employees, moving, and senior managers has been a long process.

    Fixing their software systems and upgrading them all into one system was I am sure expensive and time consuming.

    New CFO, mgmt as well as fcl systems also likely created the current delay in earnings and the restatements that they have already announced that they will make.

    Although all of that and more is great long term. Great. Short term investors will not see that and will be disappointed... So until they fix their earnings and accounting I believe they feel it is a waste of resources to spend a lot of time massaging investors. I think they are waiting till they get their ducks in a row to engage on a stock marketing plan. Luckily that appears to be at hand. And when that happens all of this forecasted news should be very positive and even exciting.

  • Reply to

    Why does Suresh want ERB?

    by fugitive6129 Jan 15, 2016 3:12 PM
    doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Jan 16, 2016 9:52 AM Flag

    Fugi -

    I was surprised to learn that you and mkab are the same person. I mean 2 years ago mkab used the word "relax" and now you Fugi used the same exact word "relax". What are the odds?

    Uh Oh. Now I just used the word "relax". I guess that must mean we are all one person. :)

    ERB Is making major moves in a great space to position for major growth and success. This does not happen without some disruption. They have fired and hired lots of senior management upgrading to high level people that can handle and run a large co. They had closed down the entire co and moved it to much larger and modern facilities. They have opened new offices in new countries, launched 3 new distribution partners, created and invested in new products...

    This is all positive and sets ERB up for success as a business and as an investment. But the disruption viewed in a vacuum by investors who cannot see the big picture looks bad. While at the same exact time these events are not seen by much of anyone investing as they are not looking as it is all under the radar.

    This has created the situation for a cheap stock and low volume. Short term pain for short sighted investors. Or a chance of a lifetime for long term investors to create long term wealth for all the aforementioned reasons.

  • doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Jan 14, 2016 9:50 AM Flag

    Jeff - I don't know anything about ACTG. But in reference to ERB in Brazil it is different from what you posted. The whole value proposition there (and in many other markets) is to have a manufacturing presence in country to avoid the duties which can be as high as 50% of the costs. ERB owns 500 FDA and CE approved products and they can be manufactured ("assembled") in any country making the product a "domestically" manufactured one avoiding very high tariffs and duties on imports. Brazil is one very large market. As many people as in the US. But here are many many more as you know, IMO this is genius. Look for ERB to for example acquire manufacturing capabilities in Brazil or just create it on their own.

  • doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Jan 13, 2016 12:09 AM Flag

    Jeff - The short term price or idea that trading in ERB is pretty silly. Personally I use the price drops to add to my position. It is not easy to accumulate shares. When it trades down that is a great opportunity to build a position.

    ERB should be announcing things soon: According to ERB soon we will get revised numbers, increased earnings, increased sales, mergers and acquisitions getting ERB to $100M + area, sale of the Real Estate for a huge windfall, sales of new tests and new instruments including diabetes, new sales to Mexico and Brazil as well as new markets, new sales to the large hospital segment - new for ERB, results of using one integrated and new software system implemented, results of new sales and new customers from the 3 new multi billion $ distribution partners, new sales of the ERB Mannheim group cos and Transasia products to their customers and vice versa including India and China, implementation and sales of the new molecular technology from the recent acquisition by ERB Mannheim, results of the new consolidated manufacturing facility and modernization to drive down costs and up efficiencies...

    Point is lots of positives ahead. When that starts to happen it will be very hard IMO to buy shares afterwards. We will have to pay up and the price might rise a lot more and a lot faster than anyone imagines. I will be happy to satisfy buyers at that time if the price is $20.

    Could that be wishful thinking or measured accurate analysis based on facts? Time will tell.

  • doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Jan 12, 2016 2:28 PM Flag

    BTW. I hope I did not use any words or phrases that anyone else who has ever posted on here has done in the past. :)

  • "Fortis Development Group sold a vacant development site for $400 per square foot to Brooklyn-based RedSky Capital, Miami-Dade County records show. In October, Fortis completed 250 Wynwood, a six-story building with 11 residential units. The firm, led by David Polinsky Bradley Carlson and Andrew Lenahan, sold the 14,625-square-foot site at 222, 230 and 234 Northwest 24th Street. "

    The actual RE closing sales set prices. $400 per foot x ERB's 97,000 feet = $38.8M cash. Close to $1 a share in ERB future cash.

    Can't predict the timing or actual sales price. But this is a textbook hidden asset. Nobody (that invests significantly) is looking at the ERB stock or fundamentals. NOT YET.

    This provides an opportunity for anyone willing to do a little due diligence and buy and hold a impossible to trade stock, to make extraordinary gains by simply waiting for the plans ERB has already released to take place.

    If ERB ownership/management are liars this will be a bad investment. However everything they are saying can be verified and confirmed with a little aforementioned due diligence. Plus they have the proven track record.

    See The Big Short to see how people can be so blinded and not see what is happening. A few people who are in the right place at the right time and or are pretty smart can benefit immensely from other's emotions. Good stuff.

  • Reply to

    Doc and FUgi do us all a favor

    by jeff5tg Jan 12, 2016 10:37 AM
    doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Jan 12, 2016 2:08 PM Flag

    Jeff - This will show you there is no conspiracy out there manipulating the prices. I put in an order to buy 5,000 at the market. Apparently they executed 4700 at $1.43 and the balance higher. Really not too bad and I won't complain on that fill.

    I am looking at selling that for over $10 in less than a year. You might respond that I should wait at least a year to take long term cap gains. But I bought that in my IRA. Of course longer term I think we have a chance to see $20 or better. But might get a quick pop once things start rolling.

  • Reply to

    Doc and FUgi do us all a favor

    by jeff5tg Jan 12, 2016 10:37 AM
    doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Jan 12, 2016 1:38 PM Flag

    Just adding. Would prefer to buy at the lowest possible price. Not interested in moving the stock myself. Rather take advantage of sellers willing to sell at these low prices. I am a long term investor, not a trader.

  • Reply to

    Doc and FUgi do us all a favor

    by jeff5tg Jan 12, 2016 10:37 AM
    doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Jan 12, 2016 12:54 PM Flag

    Watch this.

  • Reply to

    Stock market = leading indicator of real estate?

    by jeff5tg Jan 11, 2016 7:23 AM
    doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Jan 11, 2016 11:07 PM Flag

    Jeff - I too have some familiarity with real estate. Personally I believe the stock market and RE market in Florida are somewhat disconnected. Low interest rates, rising population, and South America's currency and political insecurity IMO is driving the current RE boom in Miami.

    Miami RE has had many booms and busts including in recent years. The current boom in RE in Miami and the crazy boom in Wynwood will not last forever. However no signs it is slowing down now. Cant predict the timing but ERB is just lucky to own the property they no longer need there.

    As Sam Zell says the enemy of RE is the crane. There are a lot of cranes in Miami building all over the place. Eventually the new inventory will exceed supply. When is the question. But in the meantime ERB is so fortunate. Hard to deny that.

    They will sell it and the money is all a windfall. If it was only $1M it would be great. If it was $10M that would be beyond all expectations. $20M - $30M is just plain crazy fantasy territory. But that is the reality based on all the comps and the current RE market there.

    In spite of your opinion of Indians, they can get lucky in RE just like anyone else. And to see Suresh turn $5 into a giant several hundred million dollar growing business is impressive by any ethnicity or national standard.

  • Reply to

    Stock market = leading indicator of real estate?

    by jeff5tg Jan 11, 2016 7:23 AM
    doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Jan 11, 2016 1:24 PM Flag

    Not sure why you would be skeptical about the RE? They said they are selling it and trying too get the highest value for he property. The area the property is in is on fire with prices through the roof. (google Lynwood art district)

    Do you think there is some conspiracy? It is not complicated. They recently vacated the property to move to a several times larger facility to accommodate their growth. The move forced them to shut down manufacturing and reassemble it all at the new place and the disruption was in their numbers allowing for some to get nervous and to sell stock. Now the property is vacant and for sale and they are fully moved into and working in the new, larger and modern space.

    Under what circumstances possible will they not sell the property? Cant think of one. Even if I was a racist and used racist language about the leadership/ownership based on their ethnicity. Which I am not. Seems like a silly argument to make that they cannot sell the real estate.

    BTW. ERB also hired a new CFO who fixed the financials and is resting some past numbers creating even more nervous selling. Also hired new COO, CEO, Head of sales... Announced 3 new large distributors, new locations, new products... A recent technology acquisition for $30M of a co getting them into Molecular...

    But maybe this is all a fraud or some kind of conspiracy? I obviously do not think so. It seems so crazy to believe that. But time will tell. And perhaps very soon. When the stock gets to $5 and then to $10 hopefully soon I will not say I told you so. I have tried to help you see that now - not later after it is too late. If the stock is at $20 and the news is 100% fantastic, that will be the time to sell. Now is a strong buy.

  • Reply to

    Buy Volume 26,395 Sell Volume 12,887

    by fugitive6129 Dec 16, 2015 4:34 PM
    doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Dec 21, 2015 11:37 AM Flag

    SV - Love that analysis.

    I would add current cash. Must be around $7M.

    Plus the NOL of say $25M.

    Plus the value of the US listed shell of a few million more.

    Don't forget about the 500 FDA and CE cleared products. I think the breakdown is 300 FDA approved products and 200 CE approved ones. Not sure of the breakdown between instruments, test kits, and reagents. However it is not unreasonable to put a value of $1M on each one. Some like the instruments probably cost and worth a lot more than that. Others maybe less. But at $1M each that is $500M which is over $10 per share all by itself.

    Another crazy valuation pice of the puzzle. is Lumora. Cleary they bought Lumora directly under ERB Mannheim as ERB US did not have the stock price or cash to pull that off. How much did they pay? My guess is $30M. We can assume Lumora will along with the others get placed under ERB US directly. So there is another 75 cents per share.

    All of this analysis makes no sense to people who do not understand what ERB is doing. In fact it looks a little crazy based on the current stock price. But if ERB were a fraud, or run by crooks, or on a one way street to losing money in perpetuity, then one could say the stock is worth nothing or where it is valued today.

    Only if ERB will start to grow, expand, make acquisitions and profits will the value get unlocked in the stock. IMO that is all happening literally as we speak. That in spite of accounting corrections... The market misinterpreting current events to me is a great, almost once in a lifetime opportunity.

  • Reply to

    Buy Volume 26,395 Sell Volume 12,887

    by fugitive6129 Dec 16, 2015 4:34 PM
    doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Dec 18, 2015 5:14 PM Flag

    SV - Love that analysis.

    I would add current cash. Must be around $7M.

    Plus the NOL of say $25M.

    Plus the value of the US listed shell of a few million more.

    Don't forget about the 500 FDA and CE cleared products. I think the breakdown is 300 FDA approved products and 200 CE approved ones. Not sure of the breakdown between instruments, test kits, and reagents. However it is not unreasonable to put a value of $1M on each one. Some like the instruments probably cost and worth a lot more than that. Others maybe less. But at $1M each that is $500M which is over $10 per share all by itself.

    Another crazy valuation pice of the puzzle. is Lumora. Cleary they bought Lumora directly under ERB Mannheim as ERB US did not have the stock price or cash to pull that off. How much did they pay? My guess is $30M. We can assume Lumora will along with the others get placed under ERB US directly. So there is another 75 cents per share.

    All of this analysis makes no sense to people who do not understand what ERB is doing. In fact it looks a little crazy based on the current stock price. But if ERB were a fraud, or run by crooks, or on a one way street to losing money in perpetuity, then one could say the stock is worth nothing or where it is valued today.

    Only if ERB will start to grow, expand, make acquisitions and profits will the value get unlocked in the stock. IMO that is all happening literally as we speak. That in spite of accounting corrections... The market misinterpreting current events to me is a great, almost once in a lifetime opportunity.

ERB
1.08-0.04(-3.57%)Feb 10 11:22 AMEST