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ERBA Diagnostics, Inc. Message Board

doctorsnowman 41 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 15, 2014 5:27 PM Member since: Nov 13, 2002
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  • With a little perspective it is interesting to see all the bashing and nonsense on this board. This is not a surprise and is seen on many other boards.

    I suppose that with low price stocks that move dramatically you get all sorts of people. The full range. From thoughtful investors to whacky knuckleheads. Unfortunately a small few can create multiple aliases and post numerous times which pollutes the board and makes it hard to read or take seriously.

    Interestingly there are many boards where the bombardment of bashers can be seen as a nice contrary indicator. Perhaps these are short sellers or people that were long and sold way too soon and have sour grapes... Not sure. But it is interesting.

    With ERB it is really interesting. ERB is not a biotech or an idea company with nothing yet real. ERB is not a scam penny stock with lawsuit, dilution, or fraud risk. ERB is so obviously not a pump and dump our promotional company as the management if anything is guilty of being the direct opposite of promoters. (A good or bad thing depending on your perspective)

    Evidence of the above is even the bashers do not bash any of the fundamentals. They could lie and say earnings are bad, sales are slow, acquisitions are phony, products don't work, new markets are closed... But they can't really say anything negative about relevant items as ERB keeps announcing and showing great progress by any measure on all fronts. So instead I see silliness, name calling, phony new screen names to deceive, rapid posts... It is a free country and while I don't agree with the bashing, it is their right to do that I suppose.

    But on a deeper level I ask myself why do they do that? And what does that indicate? Please excuse me if I look at it as a long term positive. Go to any active board on a stock that has appreciated a bunch and you will find that kind of banter. ERB is now attracting more attention. Today was a roller coaster and I am strapped in for the ride. Good day to be a buyer.

  • Reply to

    ERB Earnings

    by doctorsnowman Apr 14, 2014 4:32 PM
    doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Apr 15, 2014 11:57 AM Flag

    Matt -

    The growth of med diagnostics is impressive. However in the emerging markets the growth rate is even more dramatic as more people have access to medical care. These growth rates are documented on many studies including the ERB investor presentation that is on EDGAR.

    Clearly ERB is growing in the US with yesterdays earnings as evidence of 46% growth in sales. However we should see a lot more growth from sales through the ERB cos globally is all the emerging markets in , Asia, India, Middle East, South America...

    Additionally ERB had already announced the opening of Mexico with it's specific med diagnostics growth rate being so high. Since Mexico is so new I am sure we have not yet seen much additional business from there but will soon. It would be nice for ERB to give more color as to where the business is coming from in a breakdown geographically. I imagine with the conferences, investor meetings and the hiring of an IR firm we will be able to get more granularity as to detail on sales, margins, and growth rates.

    Hopefully (as ERB has already demonstrated) we will continue to see more acquisitions and integration. In fact that was also in the earnings release yesterday.

    As ERB continues to grow, make acquisitions, improve margins... The stock will catch up to the fundamentals. Meanwhile on a daily basis the stock price will reflect the fear and greed of people trading the stock. With such a small float that can be dramatic. However eventually the weak sellers exit and stronger hands enter and the stock trades to fair value based on those fundamentals.

  • Reply to

    ERB Earnings

    by doctorsnowman Apr 14, 2014 4:32 PM
    doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Apr 14, 2014 5:13 PM Flag

    I will not be "on the record" related to my investing. But generally I have recently bought some shares. Depending on the price and after today's news maybe I will be buying more. I do not want to get into the game of saying exactly where or when I buy and or sell. As you probably know I have been posting on this board and been a shareholder of IVD/ERB for well over 10 years. I am far from a pumper and dumper. I have put in the work of doing my own due diligence on my own - visiting ERB in Miami, Europe, Trade Shows and other places... Talking to ERB customers, competitors...

    For me it is more about the fundamentals and the stock price and action has often been disconnected from the ERB fundamentals. Just IMO, that can present an opportunity to make money. I do that as best as I can and do not necessarily need to share the details with this board.

    However I do enjoy communicating on this board and reading what all have to say. It is illuminating. Recently there have been a couple people using my screen name with an altered letter to try to trick people into thinking I am posting. Also some new silliness not related to anything relevant. That is all most unfortunate. Kind of takes the fun out of posting on here.

    Meanwhile IMO it has never been more clear from ERB as to what is happening and where the co. is going. There does not seem to be much room to debate the co. is doing a lot of things right and is going the right direction. Again just IMO soon the nervous traders will be out of the tock and replaced by steady hands with a longer term view. Then IMO ERB stock price will be at a completely different level.

  • doctorsnowman by doctorsnowman Apr 14, 2014 4:32 PM Flag

    ERB earnings out as expected as per announcement.

    ERB revenues up 46%, gross profit up 52%, from net income loss to gain. Better than expected.

    Continued consolidation, growth in sales, expansion of product range, potential new US and Int acquisitions...

    Rather than worrying about stock trading today down a little, looking at this as a buying opportunity. The co. is not making this stuff up. Sales, gross, net - up. More acquisitions, consolidation, products. I am repeating what ERB is saying in this release. Not my words, theirs.

    If ERB continues as they say they will, you can do your own work to extrapolate sales and earnings and do the math to figure out where ERB will get to fair value. Meanwhile this is a nice example of what makes a market and how some people make a fortune in he markets and others do not. I personally have recently have dded shares and will likely continue as long as the stock price allows. This news is helpful as a nice confirmation that things seem to be on track.

    Time will tell. Good luck to all.

  • doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Mar 28, 2014 2:23 AM Flag

    Tonight I posted a press release that was released just today by ERB. If that is "fluff" in your view you are entitled to your opinion. I read it and learned something. But that's just me. Thought to share it. Sorry you did not like it.

    You will note that ERB has for many years been very consistent in terms of issuing news rather than promises. Many complain that ERB does not do a better job of releasing positive news. Often we learn about positive developments well after they occur. ERB has that history of showing what they are actually doing and have done, rather than promising. No guidance on earnings or sales...

    So I think it is worthy to share when ERB has a press release or there is research available. You don't need to agree. And you can believe it is all lies and make believe. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. That is what makes a market. For every buyer there is a seller and vice versa.

    Really not going to get into a back and forth. But I will try that ignore deal and see how that works. Good luck to all longs, shorts...

  • doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Mar 28, 2014 1:22 AM Flag

    Based on 6 comps average valuation at 2014 estimate of 4.3x EV/S

    The price at the time of the report was ERB $2.66. Based on $2.66 and their 2014 estimate of revenues gave ERB a 3.7x EV/S.

    So ERB was according to the report trading at a nice discount to its peers.

    However I believe the report did not include any estimates for additional revenues from acquisitions or combinations. IMO that is way too conservative. ERB has a history and has stated they plan to make acquisitions... Not my words. ERB's.

    But even without all that growth from acquisitions the report still makes the case that ERB is undervalued at the price it was trading at on the day they issued the report - $2.66.

    I know my posts only stir up more anger from the poster with multiple aliases trying to hijack and make this board unreadable. I have no interest in all that silliness and name calling.

    I think there is an ignore feature. Not sure. If there is let me know.

  • doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Mar 28, 2014 1:10 AM Flag

    I often have posted things copied and pasted from press releases. If one does DD on ERB they can find the same things with a web browser. Not exactly pumping is it?

    Not sure where all this BB nonsense is coming from. Trying to scare people... If ERB trades lower based on BB nonsense, that might be an opportunity, rather than something to get upset about. Depends on your perspective.

    Meanwhile there is some news out there from previous announcements and earnings, the ERB investor slides, Stonegate Research... I imagine within a few days or weeks we will get the 4th quarter and year end earnings report. That will provide more clarity on what is happening. Then I imagine the 1st quarter will be within a couple months as well.

    Additionally, looking at the near past we have seen (and will likely see) - new products, new markets, trade shows, investment conferences, acquisitions...

    Meanwhile the bashers can do and say what they want. Long term ERB stock will trade based on substance and fundamentals.

  • doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Mar 28, 2014 12:53 AM Flag

    The above news was a press release today on PR dot com. Not hype or pumping Just the news.

    Additionally there is a new research report put out by Stonegate Securities. It is a 20 page institutional research report. It does not estimate numbers for future acquisitions or combinations in their valuations.

    Even without estimates for acquisitions or combinations - at ERB $2.66 - it says ERB is currently trading at a discount relative to ERB's comps. 20 pages of info. But lists near term catalysts:

    "We list the following important catalysts for the stock in 2014, 2015 and beyond:
     Introduction of three new products...........................................................1H2014
     Synergy from the parent Company ....................................................2014 & 2015
     Increase in product and services offerings.............................................2014 & 2015
     Streamline costs amongst subsidiaries.................................................2014 & 2015
     Possible future acquisitions..........................................................2014 & Beyond
     Market penetration in international markets.....................................2014 & Beyond"

  • "The ERBA Group (Transasia's parent company) has fortified its footprints across the globe through its quality products and services."

    "Mumbai, India, March 27, 2014 -- The ERBA Group of Companies has spread its wings across the globe and is today recognized as one of the most reputed organizations offering quality diagnostic solutions. Innovative products, ably supported by an excellent after sales service, has made ERBA a trusted partner for innumerable healthcare professionals throughout the world. Transasia Bio-Medicals Ltd. is a subsidiary of the global ERBA Group of companies."

    "ERBA has been an active part of the exhibition for ten years. This year too, the ERBA Group showcased some of its latest and best technologies in the field of Clinical Chemistry, Hematology, Critical Care, Diabetes, Immunology, Urine Analysis, Hemostasis and Microbiology."

    "The key highlight at the event was the launch of ERBA's latest biochemistry analyzer XL 180 and diabetes management analyzer Hb Vario. The ERBA Group was well represented by Suresh Vazirani-Chairman & Managing Director and the team from ERBA Group."

    "More than 1000 people including reputed pathologists, microbiologists, diabetologists & hematologists from all over the world, visited the ERBA stall. Some of the famous names include the Ministry Of Health (MOH) team from UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait & Oman. They highly appreciated ERBA Group's technical expertise."

    "In fact, the ERBA team managed to grab some on the spot orders as well, from reputed organizations across the world."

    "Through its continuous endeavors, the ERBA Group strives in its mission to meet the needs for reliable, affordable and innovative medical diagnostic solutions."

  • doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Mar 27, 2014 12:29 PM Flag

    Nice try. Someone is obviously using my screen name to try to lie and confuse people. The above post is from someone else. Not me. He copied my name but put an M on the end instead of an N.

    He creates lots of screen names with some one letter off from existing posters. Then bombards the board with lots of posts mostly very negative including just making stuff up to impersonate others and scare real people to either not buy or to sell.

    Again not sure what the motivation is for this attack and all the nonsense. It pollutes the board and makes it impossible to read. I guess that is what he is looking to do. So mission accomplished.

  • Reply to

    Enough!

    by sekuia58 Mar 26, 2014 10:50 PM
    doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Mar 27, 2014 12:31 AM Flag

    My question was a bit tongue in cheek. I suppose if this attack is thought out and not just a prank then the motivation could be one of several things.

    Either a short hoping to get people to sell to make money off that. Or a long hoping to scare people to sell so they can buy at lower prices. Last is maybe someone that is jealous or upset that they either missed buying ERB and the better than 100% gain recently or maybe they bought at the recent high and are angry the stock has dropped.

    Not really sure. But certainly odd. ERB is one of least promotional companies I have ever seen. It is hard to imagine anyone could suggest they are "pumping".

    ERB has done a great job recently of delivering performance. Hopefully the upcoming earnings will reflect more of that and the stock can get moving in the right direction again. With a tiny float it won't take much.

  • Reply to

    Enough!

    by sekuia58 Mar 26, 2014 10:50 PM
    doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Mar 26, 2014 11:22 PM Flag

    I am wondering what the motivation is for someone to try to trick people like this is. Not sure. Maybe just a prankster that thinks it is funny. Maybe something else?

  • I find it unproductive to engage in the back and forth with bashers.

    From reading all the available press and earnings releases from ERB itself we can see the turnaround - new mgmt, organic growth, new acquisitions and integration, new products, new markets, from losses to earnings, from stagnant revenues to double digit growth in revenues...

    We can also see ERB's investor slides on EDGAR and efforts made to get the story out at conferences and meetings... This is available for everyone to see in the many filings over the past several months reflecting the recent past. Not speculation.

    Then there is the future - the SA Report and others showing the potential for ERB and their plans for growth. While those are predictions of the future, it is backed up by the ERB presentation and the color ERB gives in its earnings and other formats talking about growth through organic and inorganic means (more acquisitions) as well as integration with all the other ERB companies...

    If you believe what ERB is saying, they will continue to grow, make acquisitions, take advantage of integration with all then ERB companies... In 2013 that will equate to between 50% - 100% growth and we will soon see the annual earnings report to know the exact number.

    Point is, it is huge growth. As well, the turnaround from losing money to making money is impressive. Lower expenses, increasing margins... All good things and evidenced by ERB talking about consolidating manufacturing facilities and expansion, using the ERB larger group of cos to lower costs for purchasing, expanding product depth and reach...

    Fundamentals ultimately drive the stock price. The daily noise and trading present opportunities for long term and short term investors. Understand the excitement/frustration of stock ups and downs.

    As long as ERB continues to grow, acquire, consolidate as we are lead to believe by the co. (not pumpers or outsiders) it will be a fun and worthwhile ride.

  • doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Mar 12, 2014 11:29 PM Flag

    Notice how Trasasia and ERB all spoken about in this letter from Suresh the ERB Chairman as if they are all together and one in the same. Global IVD Company...

    "Transasia has also made great advances both domestically and internationally in 2012. Year 2012 witnessed our efforts of developing new markets and new products. Transasia set stronger foothold on international grounds. We acquired three more international companies - Maxmat S.A based in France, Drew Scientific, USA and JAS Diagnostics Inc, USA. With these strategic acquisitions we have further strengthened our presence in USA, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Czech Republic, Russia, India and Turkey. We plan to metamorphose and grow into a global IVD company"

  • doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Mar 12, 2014 1:12 AM Flag

    Additional points from the ERB presentation:

    ERB relevant market -
    2011 - $35B
    2018 - $65B
    7.1% CAGR - annual growth. However - "double digit growth in emerging markets."

    Growth - "Growth through portfolio expansion". "Geographic expansion by leveraging the ERBA group companies," More acquisitions. "3 new products in 2014. (All developed in house) Expand global presence. Leverage Transasia's presence in emerging markets. Expand US presence by increasing and expanding relationships with partners."

    Operational Efficiencies - (Driving down costs) - Consolidate manufacturing in one location. Single ERP platform. "Leverage purchasing across ALL entities" Expanded Miami by 30,000 square feet. Move Dallas and Diamedix mfg to Miami. 3 ERP systems into one.

    The three new innovative ERB technologies:
    Laura XL - addresses a US alone market of $600M
    Hb - Vario - addresses Diabetes US alone market of $26B by 2015
    and last but not least:
    Lisa XL - IFA processor targeted towards the larger Blood Banks, Infectious diseases and autoimmune market segments. I wonder how big that market is? I think huge. ERB has knot announced that yet.

    A lot in the presentation. Clearly investors have not fully appreciated the ramifications of all this info. It is a lot to process. But no need to spell it out. Those who do the DD will (or have already) figure it out.

  • 30 new countries - "Well known distributors from over 30 countries where ERBA is currently not represented have applied for being appointed as distributors."

    3 new products - "For last 3 years, ERBA has been strongly focused on developing internal R&D capabilities for new products development. We are proud to launch 3 exciting new products developed by our Engineers in-house."
    1.The Lisa XL is a fully automated, 6 plate analyzer and IFA processor targeted towards the larger Blood Banks, Infectious diseases and autoimmune market segments.
    2. The Laura XL is a fully automated Urinalysis and sedimentation processor with the capability to automate Urine strip reading as well as performing sedimentation cell analysis for abnormal samples. The estimated IVD Urinalysis market is approximately $600 Million USD per year.
    3. The new Hb-Vario, an automated HPLC system that is capable of measuring both HbA1c/ and A2 for the monitoring of diabetes. Diabetes continues to be one of the major challenges worldwide to the healthcare industry. The benefits of monitoring A1c values to better manage diabetes is well documented in numerous studies.

    More on Diabetes - "the global market for Diabetes Diagnostics is estimated to reach US$26 billion by the year 2015. Bio-Rad and Tosoh are the market leaders in this segment. Diabetes testing is a focus area for growth for ERBA."

    No Coincidence. Sanjiv (CEO of ERB/ERB Manheim) spent decades at Bio- Rad. See above. Bio-Rad - $3.7B mkt cap - Mostly Diabetes.

    This is real. Not a bunch of smoke. ERB about to get interesting.

  • Reply to

    Dr. Snowman, MCF, you guys still here?

    by mofisher22 Mar 5, 2014 8:30 PM
    doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Mar 6, 2014 12:07 AM Flag

    Patience is a virtue.

    Anyway you look at ERB - Fundamentals, Technicals... Looks good. Should see earnings soon for he quarter and year. In addition to all the news, earnings, growth we have seen recently IMO we will see even more in the near future.

    But where ERB trades tomorrow or the next day I do not worry too much about. More focused on the trend and long term. For example I am interested to know:

    How Mexico is doing?
    How the Diabetes tests are doing?
    How many new markets ERB is in with their 13 companies?
    How many new products they are selling from all the sister cos?
    Plans for more acquisitions like Drew?
    How is their doubling of the manufacturing doing and how is that driving down costs?
    Which countries offer the greatest growth?
    How are the three separate and new innovations/products doing and how will that effect revenues and earnings?
    Plans and timing for further integration with Transasia and the other ERB cos?
    Schedule for more investor meetings and efforts?

    Some answers are in the presentation slides they posted from the LPM conference. I doubt many people here have bothered to look at those. Impressive presentation.

    Hopefully onward and upward.

  • Reply to

    Hey Bill Davis, Did You Sell?

    by blue_eyes_prospect_ave Mar 5, 2014 4:08 PM
    doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Mar 5, 2014 11:55 PM Flag

    ZBB has a big case of power cell spillover from PLUG and TSLA. Lucky for current ZBB shareholders. Not me. I have been a fan of ZBB but it appears they are close to going out of business. Unless they raise capital quickly it is not likely they will survive. I hate to be negative as I would like to see ZBB succeed as their technology is super. Just a title early. Maybe they will finally make a big sale? Anything is possible. But a long shot at best.

    ERB appears to be on target. A few impatient people on here. But so many overwhelming positives going on. Anticipate more of the same. Waiting for the melt up to fair value.

  • Reply to

    next round of financing

    by pprbart Mar 5, 2014 1:17 PM
    doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Mar 5, 2014 6:08 PM Flag

    ZBB has traded up with momentum investors buying without doing any basic DD. Low float... ZBB is mistakenly believed to be a power cell co with TSLA, Ballard or PLUG. Simply by that connection ZBB has rallied.

    Here is the funny thing. Unless ZBB is brain dead they have used this run up as an opportunity to raise capital through their registered shelf stock. That might buy ZBB as much as a year's worth of capital since they have a burn rate? Who knows how much they were able to sell to capitalize?

    Now if they are really smart they will announce something. Anything. Maybe a battery sale or LOI or something that can add some interest to this group of new traders in ZBB who think it will be the next PLUG. That could rally the stock even more and give ZBB a chance to raise even more capital.

    Point is, as silly as this run up appears it is likely to benefit ZBB immensely. Before Friday there was no way for ZBB to use their stock as currency. Thanks to TSLA and PLUG that has changed literally overnight.

    Not sure what an investor/trader can do. I suppose buy and stay long until the music stops. Dangerous game. Or perhaps short when the buying stops and ride it down to the price after all the dust settles. However I don't think you can borrow the stock to short it so that is unlikely.

    Curious what others think.

  • Reply to

    We need earnings

    by chase.daulton Feb 20, 2014 1:14 PM
    doctorsnowman doctorsnowman Feb 26, 2014 3:30 PM Flag

    ERB has basically doubled their size, sales, and earnings in one year. This with all new management.

    Year over year ERB has made over double the number of announcements and more importantly hired an IR firm and attended an investment conference. Fox was on here saying research is coming soon and I imagine we will see additional efforts like attendance at investor conferences and investor roadshows...

    While that is all important, it is not ERB's first priority. However I am impressed with double the announcements along with all the good news. I get the impatience by certain investors especially if they are looking for a quick trade.

    The pace of innovation with new products, new markets, acquisitions, investment communication efforts is all good and I am happy to see that. Any stock weakness based on traders selling IMO is an opportunity so I don't want to argue the point. Just find it interesting.

    I imagine we will soon get Q4 and annual earnings in March. And there should be plenty of good news based on what we have seen with the releases and the presentation - acquisitions, growth, ERB companies working together, new markets, new products, increased sales and earnings.... But I have a feeling ERB will continue to not puff and issue press releases on every detail of progress. OK by me as long as ERB continues the current path.

ERB
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