I thought the Wharton "geniuses" believed in efficient market theory. So they could never short a stock, that would be dumb.
I did some research for you on this. After the trucks leave the warehouse, they go to grocery stores and Starbucks stores. Go see for yourself.
Let's assume with RFID throughout the system that only licensed k-cups work on 2.0. Other brewer manufacturers see the obvious window that OTR wrote its note about and continue to make machines that work on 1.0 and 2.0. Won't k-cup distribution decide ultimately if the old 1.0 models survive. If 75% of the brands are licensed and they are the only ones that work on both 1.0 and 2.0, what retailer will want its customers returning their "defective" 1.0 unlicensed k-cups that didn't work in their brand new Keurig coffee maker?
I might be missing some. Not sure they said that GMCR's 2.0 Kcups won't work in an old machine. That would obviously abandon their installed base -which would be dumb. Just think that the unlicensed k-cups won't work in the new machine.
I actually have enjoyed your posts for the last year or so. I was in the stock early and got out at $35 - missing the entire run to $115. I loaded up in the low $20's like you and sold most of it north of $80. I just thought that when we hit $60 there was more than enough negativity on the quarter and outlook. Maybe I missed something, but it seems to me you expected a worse quarter than they posted. While the competitive threat is growing, so is the category, and so is GMCR. Even if we end up with 75% market share, that will leave us with a great company and business model for a long time. Finally, I wouldn't sell short their ability to execute on 2.0.
He always knew that revenue, EBITDA and free cash flow were going to continue to grow at a fast pace. This is playing out perfectly! He knows that no company has ever been successful with only a 75%-85% market share of a fast growing, high margin product. Everything is definitely going as planned! NO PROBLEM!
You seem so smart and knowledgeable. I will follow your advice. Please provide me with more of your valuable insight.
You are a D Bag.
Attack a highly profitable growth consumer products company with a fortress balance sheet! What could go wrong? I bet you are all sorry you missed the chance to short Microsoft in the '90's.
How did you pick $2.50? Nice round number I guess? I'm interested in the stock, but have no idea what level to start at.
Seems smart to me. Equity markets are red hot. Stock price has had a good run. We don't need to go to Dad to get another loan. Demand of our services will require more spectrum. We already have a bit too much debt. Hard to complain. They have to set the price at a level that fills that much demand. Hopefully we pick up some good investors in this round and take it the next leg up.
They have been wrong about everything about this stock. Only thing they know is that they can manipulate it. Congrats to them on another win today! Hope they covered!