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People's United Financial Inc. Message Board

dogma_blade 452 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 minutes ago Member since: Feb 16, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Pricing stock/warrants below the market

    by boardwalk97 May 27, 2016 9:08 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade 5 minutes ago Flag

    I love your childish comeback. I am not really sure why what I am putting forward upsets you so.

    All I have said is that with the stock being down from self inflicted wounds if the soda sales rise and the company can actually fill the orders the stock should rise on top line sales over 12 million.

    I am not sure what that has to do with Kombucha as that product has no shelf space at all left in this area( approx the same amount of shelf space as Bucha), it is easier to find the last big thing the anti nausea drink.

    Not sure what the "use a condom " line is about and I know it is pretty much a sign that a joke didn't work when someone has to ask about the reference but what was that supposed to be a reference to??

    Oh well no one ever accused you of being classy or smart.

  • Reply to

    Pricing stock/warrants below the market

    by boardwalk97 May 27, 2016 9:08 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 29, 2016 3:13 PM Flag

    Good thing customers do not believe that.

    Soda sales as a whole are dropping low single digits while craft beverage sales are rising .

    Even target has added one 4 foot multi shelf location for just craft beverages to most of it's stores at the start of the season.

    I mention this not to talk up Reeds, as Reeds did not get any of the shelf space at the Target's, but to point out that the craft segment is growing. Not that different than the beer industry trends right now.

    I think it is e very good sign that you are not pooh poohing the companies ability to deliver the soda products, but are trying to claim that there will be no demand this year for the companies primary products and even better in Netpros case that it just won't matter at all even if sales rise.

  • Reply to

    Pricing stock/warrants below the market

    by boardwalk97 May 27, 2016 9:08 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 29, 2016 9:45 AM Flag

    Now you are accusing the company of accounting tricks???

    Are sales going to grow or drop, you seem to be talking out of both sides of your mouth as usual. Ginger is a passing fad in drinks and even if you are wrong and sales climb it will not matter.

    So there is nothing that can be done what a shame. Chris could never have been Jim Koch as craft soda will never be as big as craft beer an growth in the kombucha market has slowed as shelf space in the cooler has been harder to come.

    You seem to have the perspective that a company has to go from a small cap to the biggest player in a category. It very rerely works out like that and people are still able to make money off of the smaller company's.

    You think the stock is not going to move if revenue goes to 13 million for the quarter?

    You really should not post when you get home late at night stoned.

  • Reply to

    Pricing stock/warrants below the market

    by boardwalk97 May 27, 2016 9:08 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 28, 2016 10:18 PM Flag

    Ben and Jerry have not owned an ice cream business for well over a decade.The brand is owned by Unilever a billion dollar Dutch conglomerate. Could you of least put the effort in to come up with a small business that was actually owned by the people you were mentioning?

    To me it is very funny that no on wants to address the simple question that I have asked.Will the company be able to fill orders that are placed this season and will there be a demand for the 2 major products, Reed's and Virgil's soda that will drive sales?

    The reason that I ask , is that if the company gets 12 million in revenue for the second quarter and 13 million for the third the stock should climb, especially if it is based for the most part on the growth of sales in the soda brands.

  • Reply to

    Pricing stock/warrants below the market

    by boardwalk97 May 27, 2016 9:08 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 27, 2016 10:08 PM Flag

    To be brutally honest I am amazed that the Wunderlich analyst did not change his call on the company after seeming so shocked about the answer to the question on the end of year call asking about the first quarter numbers. Wasn't he the one that was shocked by the statement that the first quarter looked flat ?

    If it was him the fact that he seemed to have expected the first quarter sales to bounce back to strong growth should have given him pause to change his call in the short term when he heard the numbers were not as good as expected.

    The CEO has proven himself to be a fool and an egomaniac that will eventually step right back in it at some point down the line when things start to get good again and he starts to believe it is all because of his genius.

    That being said my approach to the stock is the next few quarters.This stock has some of the funniest breaks that I have ever seen on a stock and I am sure if it was a bigger company there would be more scrutiny. I have never seen as many late entries of the last trade of the day claiming to be made prior to 4, both pushing the stock up and down as much #$%$ or 6 cents and hitting at 4:10 to 4:15.The company received cash for the shares sold and lost 4.5 to 5 million in value based on about 600,000 in shares traded.

    Even after saying all of that the thing that ends up mattering the most is sales.In the second quarter last year Kombucha sales cratered and sales of others dropped due to the issues they had. That means sales in the second quarter depend on Virgil's, Reeds and store brands, the rest of the items should not be that important. My take on it is hopefully they did not lose that many accounts and are busy replacing lost accounts, but more importantly that they are able to ship restock items when they are needed.

    Buying in at 1x sales seems like a good spot if sales rise.

  • Reply to

    Pricing stock/warrants below the market

    by boardwalk97 May 27, 2016 9:08 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 27, 2016 1:33 PM Flag

    What do you think I am talking about??

    I have told skippy in the past that I have made money buying after the company stub's it's toe and selling after things continued growing.

    The first time that i did it I bought in at the 1.90 range and the stock continued down to the 1.20 range. As long as the numbers worked I added to the position and lowered the buy price.

    I have a small slice of stock that I bought before the first quarter was announced in case the sales had gotten back on track, Since they did not I am down quite a bit on those shares.

    When the company extended the loan with the stipulation that they had to raise money it was obvious that they were not going to get great terms because of the companies cash position.

    Now that people are using anchoring to price the stock close to where the money was raised it gives the average investor the chance to buy at pretty close to the rate the company with all of the leverage bought.

    I think sales are going back up with just the soda's as drivers, if that is the case this is a good opportunity to buy. If it is wrong and as you and Netpro have been saying sales for the year will only be 40 million dollars I will lose money .

    I really like my odds.

  • Reply to

    Pricing stock/warrants below the market

    by boardwalk97 May 27, 2016 9:08 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 27, 2016 1:14 PM Flag

    What exactly does that mean?????

    Would you care to translate that to english from bs speak.

  • Reply to

    Pricing stock/warrants below the market

    by boardwalk97 May 27, 2016 9:08 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 27, 2016 1:06 PM Flag

    Come on can't you handle the math , give a number 3.39. HAHAHA

    This is now a good entry point , anyone foolish enough to think the stock is going to drop all the way to the buy price has another thing coming.

    I know the fact that you like to buy at the top. Good call on CELLH and LWAY at the top, but the goal is to buy low and sell high.

    My price point on this stock is now in the 3.6 range after adding to my small stack from earlier.

    I should really get killed after you were able to get your personal friend the manager of your local WFM manager to tell you the product has had a 50% drop in sales without losing shelf space.

    Keep proclaiming your genius while expecting 40 million in sales for the year, only time will tell who is right.

    See you in September and we will see if I have lost or made any money and we will see how you have proclaimed your genius as you love to pretend you made some genius call after the fact.

  • Reply to

    Pricing stock/warrants below the market

    by boardwalk97 May 27, 2016 9:08 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 27, 2016 11:54 AM Flag

    Not exactly

    648,294 shares at 4.01 equals 2.2 million and the warrants were for 4.25.

    The warrants being for 5 years was a nice deal for the buyer if you do not think the company is going under the way you guys do, but not under market price.

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade May 26, 2016 11:53 AM Flag

    Yes don't go on the morning show with an audience of over 2 million , go on the show where less than 150 thousand try and stomach Joe Kernan.

    The most interesting thing about the TSA from the interview is how much of a percentage out of the money that the government is paid per passenger that the government keeps. It must be one of the only profitable programs the government has, of course it is too bad that it is working out the way that it is. Add to that the fact that the government has admitted pulling TSA agents away to work as added security on political campaigns this year and the government starts looking worse and worse.

    Kind of interesting and not at all planned the way an article about plane depreciation being to little shows up from the Motley Fool fools the day before the busy season kicks of. Funny how there is no mention in any of the stories about whether any of the TSA delay's are being caused by increased traffic or not.

  • Reply to

    phony insider buying

    by netprophecy2 May 24, 2016 8:43 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 26, 2016 12:40 AM Flag

    I noticed that you did not say that the product was being pulled from the shelf while trying to claim it is being replaced again.

    Are the Whole foods in your area pulling Reeds and Virgil's from the shelf?

    It really is not that complicated a question.

  • Reply to

    phony insider buying

    by netprophecy2 May 24, 2016 8:43 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 25, 2016 11:52 AM Flag

    Whoah!!!!!! The resident genius is proclaiming that Whole fFods has no need for the brand anymore.

    If you have tangible news of the Ginger beer or Root Beer being dropped from Whole Foods that would be very helpful to people to people on the board. If on the other hand you are just talking out of your #$%$ as always stick with the sweeping proclamations instead of making shiat up.

    How many Whole foods near you have pulled the soda line??????

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade May 24, 2016 6:44 PM Flag

    If you bought 100 shares of Jet Blue at the closing cost on the first day of trading it would have cost 4500 to get the 100 shares.

    After 2, 3 for 2 splits you would currently be holding 225 shares worth 4065.You would only be down 435 dollars over 14 years. I hope you did not bet your retirement over it.

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade May 24, 2016 9:59 AM Flag

    If things are so bad for the legacy airlines why do they also have positive cash flow, are paying down debt and are finally joining the party ,adding planes and flights?

    If I did not see legacy airlines adding capacity your point would be great. The industry added over 10% to capacity y/y in the last quarter. If that continues , look out.

    Delta is the only player showing restraint. Delaying delivery of 4 plains and increasing the dividend because of all the new planes coming on line. Unfortunately restraint by 1 player does not prevent a bubble from bursting.

  • Reply to

    Reed

    by mgw9514 May 17, 2016 4:14 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 24, 2016 12:35 AM Flag

    Where are you getting 40 million in sales from???

    Are you really foolish enough to believe that the second and third quarter sales are not going to be above 10 million???

    If they are able to restock inventory this year based on the local movement of inventory, especially when the product is put on sale I would not be shocked if the company breaks 12 million in sales for the second quarter. It all comes down to whether they are really ready to fill orders..

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade May 23, 2016 6:16 PM Flag

    If share went up only 30% in 14 years but stockholder equity rose 2.8 billion the big question is whether it was due to dilutive stock sales or generous stock grants to company insiders because the stock holders saw 12% of a 2000% gain.

    I find it funny that someone thinks the rasm situation was a management choice. For awhile these guys and Alaska air were able to grow capacity faster than the industry without and consequences. Now that all of the extra capital has shored up many companies balance sheets capacity growth hit double digits for the whole industry.

    If capacity growth continues at double digits the whole industry will get hit, just like oil. The best managed oil companies are surviving but not making much hay as pricing power has disappeared.

    Demand growth low single digits accompanied by supply growth of double digits leads to oversupply.

    I have been in this stock since the low eights 2 years ago and for the second time I am posting about having made a mistake holding on too long, but I am hoping the numbers in the busy part of the season will cause the stock to run up going into the second half of the year, but if capacity continues to grow faster than demand industry wide I might have to get out and take what the market gives me.

    The pop has happened too many times in the past and at some point will probably happen again.

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade May 23, 2016 2:38 PM Flag

    Company has been public for 14 years.

    On a split adjusted basis the price was 14.90 at the end of day 1.A 3 dollar gain over 14 years does not impress. Even with such a low pe Jetblue is carrying one of the highest pe's in the industry. People do not trust the industry to show restraint.

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade May 20, 2016 11:19 PM Flag

    Anyone who has been around long enough knows that the history of the industry has been boom and bust.

    When oil prices initially dropped the ticket prices did not drop much as the change in an input expense did not change the supply / demand dynamic. As cash came flooding in and was paying down debt and dropping to the bottom line airlines started increasing capacity.

    As capacity growth started to grow faster than demand growth prices started to drop. Historically the industry as a whole has over ordered planes and no one was untouched when the bubble burst.

    Jet Blue and Alaska Air have been adding capacity faster than the market for awhile but the rest of the companies are starting to grow their fleets at a faster rate.

    I am hoping that things go well this summer and the rest of this year, but am keeping an eye out for signs of further acceleration in capacity growth.

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade May 20, 2016 10:45 AM Flag

    10,000 shares @ 3.90 is only 39,000 dollars not 3 million

  • Reply to

    Warrants / EPS Est

    by mark.wade1960 May 20, 2016 7:38 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 20, 2016 10:39 AM Flag

    The options that have been used are not the hit. The big hit is the change in the value of open options.

    Last quarter the stock price increased so much in the quarter that the change in the value of open options caused a 5.692 million non cash loss.

    This quarter the stock started at 4.36 and it currently at 3.66. If the stock stays below 4.36 until June 30th there will be no options loss line item for the quarter and if the price ends the quarter below 4.36 there would be a non cash gain.

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