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People's United Financial Inc. Message Board

dogma_blade 136 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Feb 16, 2010
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  • dogma_blade dogma_blade Jan 14, 2015 6:15 PM Flag

    So 2 days are more important than 10?

    Why other than you want it support your childish wittle posts?

    It is so hard to believe that you are upset that Romeos tune was not sung to you. Even though it was a hit it was never that good of a song and you really should let it go.

  • Reply to

    Mikey's real problem???

    by dogma_blade Dec 4, 2014 12:44 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Jan 14, 2015 5:27 PM Flag

    Fat Mikey,

    I am waiting for you to come out in support of the terrorists in France , after all how dare someone not give a religioss icon the respect a true believer wants them to give.

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade Jan 14, 2015 5:24 PM Flag

    Wow you hit it right on the head.

    Here we are 2 trading weeks into the new year and the stock is only up 1 cent, all the while the rest of the market is off to the races, oh wait a minute,

    Sorry, someone just told me that the rest of the market has not been off to the races for the year so far.In fact most of the major exchanges are down around 3% or so.

    Does that mean little Stevie Forbert is doing something right and your personal feelings are clouding Doodieheads judgement?

  • Reply to

    Why is PRASM down so much?

    by homerunguy2000 Jan 14, 2015 11:10 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Jan 14, 2015 1:33 PM Flag

    Most airlines prasm was down for December .
    For December
    Southwest down 4-5% ,AA flat to down 2% etc because ticket prices did drop slightly due to gas prices drops.

    Jet Blues was a little higher simply due to the fact that they added more capacity than other airlines so their load factor dropped 1.3%. Those are available miles getting 0 dollars.

    Per Air Canada
    "Passenger Revenue per Available Seat Mile or RASM – Refers to average passenger revenue per ASM (baggage fee revenues, which are included in passenger revenues, are removed for the purposes of calculating RASM)."

    This stock should continue to rise going to the end of the second quarter. As they get close to lapping the drop in gas prices and the number of new planes coming from the producers continues to ramp up it might be time to pull shares off of the table.

  • Reply to

    +2% Increase in Sales due to Seahawks...

    by robby_birch Jan 10, 2015 11:01 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Jan 12, 2015 3:25 PM Flag

    If making the super bowl has a positive effect on sales then winning the whole thing last year already had the positive effect on last years number, anything short of that will have a negative impact in comparison.

  • Reply to

    Why RAD is Down Today

    by ar.sigis Jan 12, 2015 11:16 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Jan 12, 2015 12:03 PM Flag

    long term debt is actually up over 30 million from where it was in March at the beginning of the fiscal year.

    While they reduced the debt over half a billion in the last 2 fiscal years it does not appear as though they felt the need to concentrate on debt reduction this year yet.

  • Reply to

    the lost year

    by buck1975crh Jan 11, 2015 10:44 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Jan 11, 2015 2:19 PM Flag

    How exactly is the current price lower than the price the stock dropped to in mid October?

  • Reply to

    new outlet

    by al_cogs Jan 4, 2015 7:20 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Jan 8, 2015 1:45 PM Flag

    "reed will not grow consistently at 20% nor has it"

    Now you are not just making claims about the future,but about revenue growth in the past.

    2010 sales 20,376,00 last 4 quarters sales 42 million

    sales increase of about 105% in 3 3/4 years.

    20% may not be sustainable in the long run, but do not claim that they have not done it , or more importantly act like it is a quaint percentage of growth.

    Keep chasing unicorns.

  • Reply to

    new outlet

    by al_cogs Jan 4, 2015 7:20 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Jan 8, 2015 11:22 AM Flag

    Let me guess you love to buy high and sell low?

    "20% is wonderful for a private company"?

    You do not seem to grasp basic math

    Due to the magic of compounding 20% growth doubles a companies revenue in 3 1/2 years, not 5.

    If this basic concept escapes you and you only want to invest in unicorn companies with 100% annual growth I would like to suggest a low cost index fund as the best investment for you.

    If a company started with a million in annual sales, increased sales at 20% for 100 years they would end up with sales in the trillions.

    Just take a look at Reeds, I am not saying that they will be able to sustain 20% growth for the next 10 1/2 years, but you asked how long it takes to break 300 million in sales

    The company has sales of 42 million over the last 4 quarters.20% growth over the next 10 1/2 year would bring the revenue to 336 million.

  • Reply to

    new outlet

    by al_cogs Jan 4, 2015 7:20 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Jan 6, 2015 11:35 AM Flag

    The company is finally cash flow positive and still growing at 15 to 20%, that puts it in rarefied air in the shrinking soda industry.

    The company is run relatively efficiently for doing almost everything in house.

    The fear for investors is that Chris Reed does not seem to respect the concept of profitability. The moment the company shows solid profitability he spends most of the money on a self indulgent tv commercial and the next quarters profit drops to a marginal amount.

    Even though 15% to 20% growth for the next 3 quarters seems very likely. The possibility of a waste full spend (continuing the tv add spend or borrowing 3 million for the upgrade in this quarter) or something happening during the factory upgrade, that Chris will make seem worse, by claiming he had to come in and save the day after someone else messed up has people afraid to move into the stock

    If they would simply cancel the tv add, put some of the money into sampling promotions (to help get the Kombucha into more Whole foods and open new accounts for all the products) and let the rest drop to the bottom line the company could show a .50 profit next year if the solid growth continues.

    That is not likely to happen because Chris thinks like Netpro and does not believe that 20% growth is good enough.There should be run ups during the year and the decision will be whether to cash in or hold hoping for the real break out.

  • Reply to

    new outlet

    by al_cogs Jan 4, 2015 7:20 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Jan 5, 2015 5:02 PM Flag

    Unfortunately, most convenience stores, drug stores, gas stations will not carry beverages in glass bottles.

    Usually the only exception is in states where they are allowed to sell beer, not soda or kombucha.

  • Reply to

    Most investors miss the Preferreds issue

    by deu_diligence Dec 31, 2014 9:34 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 31, 2014 6:48 PM Flag

    Once again that is probably why you are able to buy a company growing over 20% getting close to cash flow positive for a little over 1 times sales this year.

    By the way what caused you to bring it up this morning, right after the stock refused to anchor to the drop that the stock had yesterday?

    In addition you have not addressed your gross overstatement of how much of the companies market value the debt equaled.

    Finally what magic trick do you propose that the company uses before the companies cash flow turns positive?

  • Reply to

    Most investors miss the Preferreds issue

    by deu_diligence Dec 31, 2014 9:34 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 31, 2014 5:12 PM Flag

    One, it is incorrect that investors do not know about it.

    The price of the common takes into account the preferred as the price of the preferred has taken into account the health of the company and has risen as the fortunes of the company has improved.

    So the company has gone from burning over 10 million in cash a year to actually booking 2 years of profits ,is getting very close to being cash flow positive and all of a sudden the preferred needs to be addressed now.

    Keep increasing sales, reach cash flow positive, then address preferred shares.

    From a business stand point it makes no sense address non preferred that they are not making payment on before the company reaches cash flow positive.

    Feel free to wait and buy the common until after the preferred has been dealt with. You seem to be assured that you will be able to get the stock at the same price as today after that happens.

    But then again you also seem to be contending that 12.6 million is 30% of 57.5 million. Must be using that new math.

  • Reply to

    Most investors miss the Preferreds issue

    by deu_diligence Dec 31, 2014 9:34 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 31, 2014 2:17 PM Flag

    I am really glad that you admitted to making up the 2 new ID's because the board is slow and some people are away.

    Admitting it is the first step to realizing you have a problem.

    By the way the company has the preferred stock out there, every other quarter the dividend amount is entered into the quarterly. there is not secret being kept from the investors, so how exactly does the dollar amount owed to preferred holders need to be addressed, what exactly is it they are supposed to do?

    Don't look at the improving results keep looking at what we tell you to, they will never survive these issues, 20% growth with improving cash flow means nothing at all!!!!!!! HAHAHAHA.

  • Reply to

    Most investors miss the Preferreds issue

    by deu_diligence Dec 31, 2014 9:34 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 31, 2014 10:44 AM Flag

    You are incorrect!

    The preferred stock has been discussed many times on this board and believe it or not is baked into the price of the common.

    The more important question here though is Fat Mickey talking to himself again?

    The board has slowed down, no one is responding to his stupid redundant posts and 2 brand new ID's show up, one to scream about the coke situation and another to act as if the preferred stock has just materialized out of nowhere. ROFLMAO

    Wow 2 new posters bringing up 2 of fatboys favorite issues.

    All the company needs to do is keep up the 15-20% growth.

  • Reply to

    sweepstakes for 25,000

    by netprophecy2 Dec 17, 2014 1:01 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 26, 2014 5:57 PM Flag

    Wow did I break some sort of rule??

    I bought the stock at 1.95 , sold at 7.27 and have built up a new position with an average price of about 4.50. I was not aware that you could only buy a company during an IPO.

    I love the childish proclamation, if you bought a year ago you would be down, if you bought at the IPO you would be down . There is no other legitimate entry point to buy the stock.

    Therefore it must be an absolute "So, like the man said, as an investment Reed's has been a failure." what a tool ROFLMAO

    I really love it when he complains about how it has taken 4 whole year to double the company sales and scoffs at 20% growth. Sam Adams 25% growth AMAZING ,Reeds 22% growth, horrible.

    Complaining about the 25000 promotion and claiming samples and swag do not work in promotion when they are the most effective non trade promotion for a company this size. The reason that the stock ran up and down after the numbers came out is that the the company tried to act big without having the heft to back it up.

    The reason that the companies profit dropped from the second to third quarter had nothing to do with the company having a problem with operational expenses. It had to do with Chris's ego and his wanting to be the face of the brand. The company increased it's promotional budget from 38,000 to 460,000. Of the 422,000 increase 407,000 of the money went to the self indulgent commercial. So don't worry they didn't waste money on site level sampling or promotion, but instead went big with a cable add, the type of lamb brain move you must love.

    I would have preferred a small increase in the Ad budget, another 350,000 in cash to the bottom line and paying for some of the factory upgrade out of cash on hand.

  • Reply to

    sweepstakes for 25,000

    by netprophecy2 Dec 17, 2014 1:01 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 26, 2014 3:03 PM Flag

    Why would you pick the bloated monstrosity of google to compare to reeds?

    Let's see, 5 year yahoo stock performance chart Google up 74.782%
    5 year yahoo stock performance chart for Reed up 324.4755%

  • Reply to

    Added 2222 to my 7777 shares @ 5.90

    by boofoou2 Dec 18, 2014 1:14 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 23, 2014 11:06 PM Flag

    If they are hedged why did sales increase 27.7% while food and packaging costs increased 30% ?

  • Reply to

    Added 2222 to my 7777 shares @ 5.90

    by boofoou2 Dec 18, 2014 1:14 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 23, 2014 10:19 PM Flag

    This quarters cost of beef is over 40% higher than the same quarter last year. It will be higher that the comparable quarter for this quarter and probably the next 2.

    They should not benefit from the comparison for at least the next 7 months. That does not mean that they will not benefit from other comparisons.

    The real questions for me with this company is how long the money they raised will last if they are going to roll out new outlets on their own, and if they cannot generate enough free cash flow to self finance outlet growth, is anyone lined up to pay for franchises?

  • Reply to

    Added 2222 to my 7777 shares @ 5.90

    by boofoou2 Dec 18, 2014 1:14 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 23, 2014 9:38 PM Flag

    Beef costs are up quite a bit from last year.
    Drought and the cost of corn in the past caused the supply of cows to drop 2.4 million from 2013 to 2014.
    The 2013 calf crop was estimated at 33.9 million, the lowest number since 1949.
    On the bright side , the low cost of corn should allow the more sellers to raise their cows to full weight before selling.
    This should help to prevent any more upward pressure on beef prices, but you might want to take a look at this years prices versus last year.Even though the price has been drifting down since September prices are still over 40% higher than the same time last year.

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