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The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. Message Board

dogma_blade 149 posts  |  Last Activity: 19 hours ago Member since: Feb 16, 2010
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  • Reply to

    sweepstakes for 25,000

    by netprophecy2 Dec 17, 2014 1:01 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade 19 hours ago Flag

    Wow did I break some sort of rule??

    I bought the stock at 1.95 , sold at 7.27 and have built up a new position with an average price of about 4.50. I was not aware that you could only buy a company during an IPO.

    I love the childish proclamation, if you bought a year ago you would be down, if you bought at the IPO you would be down . There is no other legitimate entry point to buy the stock.

    Therefore it must be an absolute "So, like the man said, as an investment Reed's has been a failure." what a tool ROFLMAO

    I really love it when he complains about how it has taken 4 whole year to double the company sales and scoffs at 20% growth. Sam Adams 25% growth AMAZING ,Reeds 22% growth, horrible.

    Complaining about the 25000 promotion and claiming samples and swag do not work in promotion when they are the most effective non trade promotion for a company this size. The reason that the stock ran up and down after the numbers came out is that the the company tried to act big without having the heft to back it up.

    The reason that the companies profit dropped from the second to third quarter had nothing to do with the company having a problem with operational expenses. It had to do with Chris's ego and his wanting to be the face of the brand. The company increased it's promotional budget from 38,000 to 460,000. Of the 422,000 increase 407,000 of the money went to the self indulgent commercial. So don't worry they didn't waste money on site level sampling or promotion, but instead went big with a cable add, the type of lamb brain move you must love.

    I would have preferred a small increase in the Ad budget, another 350,000 in cash to the bottom line and paying for some of the factory upgrade out of cash on hand.

  • Reply to

    sweepstakes for 25,000

    by netprophecy2 Dec 17, 2014 1:01 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade 22 hours ago Flag

    Why would you pick the bloated monstrosity of google to compare to reeds?

    Let's see, 5 year yahoo stock performance chart Google up 74.782%
    5 year yahoo stock performance chart for Reed up 324.4755%

  • Reply to

    Added 2222 to my 7777 shares @ 5.90

    by boofoou2 Dec 18, 2014 1:14 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 23, 2014 11:06 PM Flag

    If they are hedged why did sales increase 27.7% while food and packaging costs increased 30% ?

  • Reply to

    Added 2222 to my 7777 shares @ 5.90

    by boofoou2 Dec 18, 2014 1:14 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 23, 2014 10:19 PM Flag

    This quarters cost of beef is over 40% higher than the same quarter last year. It will be higher that the comparable quarter for this quarter and probably the next 2.

    They should not benefit from the comparison for at least the next 7 months. That does not mean that they will not benefit from other comparisons.

    The real questions for me with this company is how long the money they raised will last if they are going to roll out new outlets on their own, and if they cannot generate enough free cash flow to self finance outlet growth, is anyone lined up to pay for franchises?

  • Reply to

    Added 2222 to my 7777 shares @ 5.90

    by boofoou2 Dec 18, 2014 1:14 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 23, 2014 9:38 PM Flag

    Beef costs are up quite a bit from last year.
    Drought and the cost of corn in the past caused the supply of cows to drop 2.4 million from 2013 to 2014.
    The 2013 calf crop was estimated at 33.9 million, the lowest number since 1949.
    On the bright side , the low cost of corn should allow the more sellers to raise their cows to full weight before selling.
    This should help to prevent any more upward pressure on beef prices, but you might want to take a look at this years prices versus last year.Even though the price has been drifting down since September prices are still over 40% higher than the same time last year.

  • Reply to

    9% line of credit

    by jimcpaohio Dec 17, 2014 8:01 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 19, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    It is very funny the response that I have gotten for pointing out simple facts, that 9% is a 35% better rate than the company had of 14.25% and 13% a year ago when they were more of a credit risk.

    Was it that or my giving props to the board CPA for getting his clients loans for prime (later revised to prime plus 1 or2) without collateral when the average rate for small businesses according to the fed is 7.59%

    I never tried to claim 9% was better than 7.59%, I simply stated my opinion that is was a move in the right direction as the companies cash flow had turned positive in the last year.

    There is a number that sticks out like a sore thumb on the quarterly that is probably why the stock went up and then right back down after the numbers were released. Other than the normal fear of slowing sales growth it is probably the item that gave most investors pause.

  • Reply to

    9% line of credit

    by jimcpaohio Dec 17, 2014 8:01 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 18, 2014 11:40 PM Flag

    Once again congrats on getting your clients loans at prime without collateral.

    Oh wait a minute now you are saying that it is prime plus 1% or 2%.. Well at least that is still 2 points below the national average (7.59%) according to the federal reserve and 400 banks that were surveyed , your customers should still be happy.

    As opposed to your assertions, I believe the statements that I made were factual. The interest rates were reduced 31% and 39% on the 2 agreements that were renewed.

    In addition I do not think being 1 1/2 points over the small business rate average (7.59%) is that bad for a company that has become cash flow positive in the last year or so.

    What exactly so bad about the credit terms improving 35% over the last contract?

    Let me guess, it's not better enough.

  • Reply to

    9% line of credit

    by jimcpaohio Dec 17, 2014 8:01 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 18, 2014 6:32 PM Flag

    Congrats on spinning a 39% and a 31% reduction in the interest rates on 2 credit facilities into negatives.

    To the CPA, if you can get small businesses loans at prime without collateral you are truly amazing. Of course my bs detector started to go off when I read "I think for the most part. yes", you might want to make sure you go over the companies numbers again before signing of on the companies numbers and submitting them to the IRS.

    The federal reserves survey of small business loans (survey of over 400 banks) puts the average loan rate for loans up to a million (yes, I know smaller than Reeds, but similar in size to the boards CPA) puts the average borrowing rate at 7.59%. While that is still lower than 9%, the premium that Reeds is paying for being a company that just became cash flow positive in the last year is not that great, unless of course all of the other small cap companies are really getting money at prime.

  • Reply to

    Bulldogma_Blade

    by bingbongdoodiehead Dec 12, 2014 11:02 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 12, 2014 3:51 PM Flag

    Gotta love the board fool accusing anyone who does not agree with his genius of pumping.

    Very simple, long term trend, revenue rising cash burn shrinking. Evidently that is a huge pump in the eyes of chicken little 1 and 2.

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 11, 2014 1:31 PM Flag

    I appeared to have hit a nerve with the happy couple both posting in unison within a minute of each other . How sweet.

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 11, 2014 1:19 PM Flag

    Feeling refreshed????

    Did Fat Mikey get the desired response??

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 11, 2014 1:04 PM Flag

    Look , it's the town liar giving the village idjut a reach around.

    Remember to stick the finger up there real good, after all ya gotta hit the prostate to get the desired effect. ROFLMAO

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 10, 2014 12:08 PM Flag

    Bad news is bad good news is bad , everything is double plus bad!!!!!!!! LOL

    Adding new customers terrible for the business, just ask Fat Mikey and he will let you know.

    He claims that 20% growth will not help the company but continues to try and convince himself that it is growing at 7%

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 9, 2014 1:03 PM Flag

    Average FICA 608 (average is sub prime), tightening of standards caused same store sales to drop.

    What is the plain to replace the high credit risk customers that the store was using to keep sales growing.

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 9, 2014 12:47 PM Flag

    How are they going to turn Kmart into Macy's, and when they become similar to HHGreg and Best buy what is going to drive sales.

    The company got the supercharged growth by selling to marginal credit risks and claiming that they could manage the risk.

    Once they are only approving better credit risk how will their sales move in a different direction than all of the other similar retailers seemingly stuck in the mud.

    If you want to get an idea try and find out how much store sales have been increasing over the past few years without the companies own credit card, with just cash and third party cards.

    If this is your entry point there might be a few buck to be made on a small bounce back, but if your buy is much higher, sell take the loss and take the loss against a gain this year.

  • Reply to

    Lack of insider buying

    by bingbongdoodiehead Dec 8, 2014 10:50 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 8, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    What change are you talking about?

    It seems as though you are trying to make it seem like I am looking for some big change. HAHAHA

    I am looking for the same thing that I have been looking for during the last year, 15-20% sales growth. As long as that continues the losses will take care of themselves.

    After all the company has grown from huge lasses, to continually shrinking losses, to 2 years of reporting a profit and the next step is cash flow positive.

    In the last five years how many years has the cash flow loss grown???

  • Reply to

    Dogma

    by bingbongdoodiehead Dec 5, 2014 8:16 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 8, 2014 1:17 PM Flag

    Is that kinda like 99% perspiration and 1% inspiration?

    Something that means absolutely nothing, but since you are using pretend percentages it almost, but not quite, gives the illusion of legitimacy.

    Oh by the way the caps and exclamation point the statement must be true. too funny.

    After all of the #$%$ you sling you are finally telling people to do research. heheheheheh

  • Reply to

    Lack of insider buying

    by bingbongdoodiehead Dec 8, 2014 10:50 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 8, 2014 1:11 PM Flag

    Must be another day without any new information.

    a board troll is going on and on about insider buying.

    One of the oldest lines in the world. How enlightening

  • Reply to

    7% for Dogma once again!

    by michael_moore_is_fat Dec 5, 2014 9:53 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 5, 2014 9:51 PM Flag

    Still completely pathologically unable to admit you made a mistake with the 7% increase number.

    This is just too funny.

    Like shooting very dumb fish in a barrel.

  • Reply to

    Dogma

    by bingbongdoodiehead Dec 5, 2014 8:16 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Dec 5, 2014 4:02 PM Flag

    As I have already posted many times , I have talked about negatives in the past.

    Of course on the other hand it appears you are reverting to your junior high debate tactics. After All I asked you first if you had said anything positive in you 25 years on the board and all anyone heard was crickets chirp.

    Here is a quote from Sept 23 for ya fool " on the other hand the degradation in the margin this quarter caused the stock to give back most of the pop from earlier this month."

    There are quite a few other measured posts before the board trolls just wouldn't stop posting the same garbage over and .

    Of course after mentioning that Fat Mikey noticed the drop in margin (how he could have missed it before that is mind boggling, he might have been too busy doing his old cut and paste)and started posting about it.

    Of course neither he nor you want anyone to look to deeply at why the margin numbers did what they did. The 400,000 or so drop in gross can be covered by the one time charge of 410,000 for a settlement.The 380,000 in lease charges show the gross profit would have risen if the machines had been financed as in the past.

    Run the revenue up to 12.6 to 12.7 million for next quarter and get another 100,000 in gross to go towards the full lease bills and finally hope that the 132,000 charge against SGA for bad debt is a one time item like the 410,000 and the company is getting closer to matching last years gross profit with the quarterly lease price included.

    It will be interesting to see if they can finally get the gross higher by the fourth quarter or the first quarter of next year.

HAIN
118.52+1.27(+1.08%)Dec 26 4:00 PMEST

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