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The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. Message Board

dogma_blade 79 posts  |  Last Activity: 38 minutes ago Member since: Feb 16, 2010
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  • Reply to

    phony insider buying

    by netprophecy2 May 24, 2016 8:43 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade 38 minutes ago Flag

    I noticed that you did not say that the product was being pulled from the shelf while trying to claim it is being replaced again.

    Are the Whole foods in your area pulling Reeds and Virgil's from the shelf?

    It really is not that complicated a question.

  • Reply to

    phony insider buying

    by netprophecy2 May 24, 2016 8:43 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade 13 hours ago Flag

    Whoah!!!!!! The resident genius is proclaiming that Whole fFods has no need for the brand anymore.

    If you have tangible news of the Ginger beer or Root Beer being dropped from Whole Foods that would be very helpful to people to people on the board. If on the other hand you are just talking out of your #$%$ as always stick with the sweeping proclamations instead of making shiat up.

    How many Whole foods near you have pulled the soda line??????

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade May 24, 2016 6:44 PM Flag

    If you bought 100 shares of Jet Blue at the closing cost on the first day of trading it would have cost 4500 to get the 100 shares.

    After 2, 3 for 2 splits you would currently be holding 225 shares worth 4065.You would only be down 435 dollars over 14 years. I hope you did not bet your retirement over it.

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade May 24, 2016 9:59 AM Flag

    If things are so bad for the legacy airlines why do they also have positive cash flow, are paying down debt and are finally joining the party ,adding planes and flights?

    If I did not see legacy airlines adding capacity your point would be great. The industry added over 10% to capacity y/y in the last quarter. If that continues , look out.

    Delta is the only player showing restraint. Delaying delivery of 4 plains and increasing the dividend because of all the new planes coming on line. Unfortunately restraint by 1 player does not prevent a bubble from bursting.

  • Reply to

    Reed

    by mgw9514 May 17, 2016 4:14 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 24, 2016 12:35 AM Flag

    Where are you getting 40 million in sales from???

    Are you really foolish enough to believe that the second and third quarter sales are not going to be above 10 million???

    If they are able to restock inventory this year based on the local movement of inventory, especially when the product is put on sale I would not be shocked if the company breaks 12 million in sales for the second quarter. It all comes down to whether they are really ready to fill orders..

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade May 23, 2016 6:16 PM Flag

    If share went up only 30% in 14 years but stockholder equity rose 2.8 billion the big question is whether it was due to dilutive stock sales or generous stock grants to company insiders because the stock holders saw 12% of a 2000% gain.

    I find it funny that someone thinks the rasm situation was a management choice. For awhile these guys and Alaska air were able to grow capacity faster than the industry without and consequences. Now that all of the extra capital has shored up many companies balance sheets capacity growth hit double digits for the whole industry.

    If capacity growth continues at double digits the whole industry will get hit, just like oil. The best managed oil companies are surviving but not making much hay as pricing power has disappeared.

    Demand growth low single digits accompanied by supply growth of double digits leads to oversupply.

    I have been in this stock since the low eights 2 years ago and for the second time I am posting about having made a mistake holding on too long, but I am hoping the numbers in the busy part of the season will cause the stock to run up going into the second half of the year, but if capacity continues to grow faster than demand industry wide I might have to get out and take what the market gives me.

    The pop has happened too many times in the past and at some point will probably happen again.

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade May 23, 2016 2:38 PM Flag

    Company has been public for 14 years.

    On a split adjusted basis the price was 14.90 at the end of day 1.A 3 dollar gain over 14 years does not impress. Even with such a low pe Jetblue is carrying one of the highest pe's in the industry. People do not trust the industry to show restraint.

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade May 20, 2016 11:19 PM Flag

    Anyone who has been around long enough knows that the history of the industry has been boom and bust.

    When oil prices initially dropped the ticket prices did not drop much as the change in an input expense did not change the supply / demand dynamic. As cash came flooding in and was paying down debt and dropping to the bottom line airlines started increasing capacity.

    As capacity growth started to grow faster than demand growth prices started to drop. Historically the industry as a whole has over ordered planes and no one was untouched when the bubble burst.

    Jet Blue and Alaska Air have been adding capacity faster than the market for awhile but the rest of the companies are starting to grow their fleets at a faster rate.

    I am hoping that things go well this summer and the rest of this year, but am keeping an eye out for signs of further acceleration in capacity growth.

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade May 20, 2016 10:45 AM Flag

    10,000 shares @ 3.90 is only 39,000 dollars not 3 million

  • Reply to

    Warrants / EPS Est

    by mark.wade1960 May 20, 2016 7:38 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 20, 2016 10:39 AM Flag

    The options that have been used are not the hit. The big hit is the change in the value of open options.

    Last quarter the stock price increased so much in the quarter that the change in the value of open options caused a 5.692 million non cash loss.

    This quarter the stock started at 4.36 and it currently at 3.66. If the stock stays below 4.36 until June 30th there will be no options loss line item for the quarter and if the price ends the quarter below 4.36 there would be a non cash gain.

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade May 18, 2016 11:35 AM Flag

    Nothing tells the future madam Olga.

    The growth in the stock price is caused by current performance combined with expectations for the future. As the sales have grown and the operational profits have continued to improve along with the growth in cash flow the stock has risen along with institutional ownership.

    as the sales grow and the system usage grows (dollar and transactions per port) and the cash flow grows the stock should continue to rise.

    You keep trying to point to a time when the company was bleeding cash and the stock was dropping to compare things too. As I have said many times before the growth has to stop or even reverse to get your desired drop back to penny stock land.

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade May 18, 2016 11:23 AM Flag

    I am just trying to make money, not take it personally.

    It was very good money buying in the last 2 times the stock dropped in a big way.

    It is a very simple question of whether or not the sales will get close to even fro the second quarter and whether there will be a big enough jump in the third quarter from the jump in branded and private label to cause the stock to jump. I really do not think that I will want to be in the stock when they actually try to perform the factory upgrade, but you never know.

    Your personal attacks make it sound as though you are angry about some loss that has already occurred in the stock .

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade May 17, 2016 3:39 PM Flag

    That's funny, this was the first call that he appeared to give credit to some of the new hires.

    He gave credit for adding a new co packer that he did not think they would need at the time but ended up needing, he gave credit for the improvements in efficiency and the cost savings at the plant using the old equipment and even admitted that one of the questions at the end of the call was going to to make one of the new guys happy.

    He did not threaten to drop any bottlers or bad mouth any partners or competitors.

    From what they were saying it sounds as though the revenue run is a little below last year but could catch up or even pass the 12 million if the product turns over the way it did last year.Not quite sure where someone got 10 million for the second quarter on the call, I would be willing to re listen if someone could point out where it was in the cal that they heard it.

    It was kind of boring the way he got all excited about the unlimited possibility of a product that they have not even made a single sale on in the fountain business. I thought for a moment that I was listening to Netpro2 for a minute about the possibility of a gazillion percent increase in sales overnight.

    With them getting past some of the operational problems only time will tell how much business they can get back. It is obvious that they lost a very big opportunity with everything from Kombucha to the Dr Better's being stocked at Trader Joe's until they were unable to restock. , but the stock is going to move forward based on current reality moving forward.Historically this stock has gotten back on track after each big drop, in this instance it does not need any big surprise just steady growth.

    The only other big bonehead move that has not been taken care of yet that people seem to let go is the fact that they bought new equipment quite awhile ago and are paying a high interest rate to finance it whiule it will just be sitting unused in the factory until the end of this year.

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade May 16, 2016 1:56 PM Flag

    Do you think the stock is bouncing back because investers are getting a chance to go over the numbers and are seeing the positive cash flow and are realizing that the loss was for the most part from the change in the value of the options?

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade May 13, 2016 4:16 PM Flag

    only 870 days or less until the stock breaks 10 dollars.

    After the pullback the stock is only up 31% for the year, things looking rough.

  • Reply to

    Down 50 Cents!

    by michael_moore_is_fat May 13, 2016 2:03 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 13, 2016 4:11 PM Flag

    Company does not need cash from expired warrants for anything.

    The company grows more cash flow positive every quarter.

    4.8 million of the loss is that change in value of options no operational loss.

    Sales still growing at a strong rate and transactions and dollars per port also growing.

  • Reply to

    Airlines and consumer spending

    by markbgc May 12, 2016 3:13 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 12, 2016 6:39 PM Flag

    The history of the industry is to overbuy capacity when things are good leading to a pop.

    That is why investors are worried. If capacity continues to grow faster than the market expect the worst, if companies show restraint and slow the growth than things could work out.

    The backlog data in regards to ordered plains, not just for the airlines, but also the leasing companies might give you an idea whether the industry is going to keep increasing capacity at double digits, which is way too fast or will slow down.

  • Reply to

    Reed

    by mgw9514 May 12, 2016 10:08 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 12, 2016 11:25 AM Flag

    You think that call was worse than last years third quarter??

    Why??

  • Reply to

    ot done

    by boardwalk97 May 9, 2016 3:14 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 11, 2016 5:55 PM Flag

    Well if you are looking for an 18% drop in second quarter sales you might just get the price you want as son as it happens.

  • Reply to

    ot done

    by boardwalk97 May 9, 2016 3:14 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 11, 2016 5:23 PM Flag

    What, couldn't find any comparable business with this valuation? Heck I can find oil producers and retailers with lower valuations, but even Lifeway that has hit the wall in terms of sales is valued at 1.33 times sales

HAIN
48.72+0.16(+0.33%)May 25 4:00 PMEDT