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The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. Message Board

dogma_blade 86 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 28 minutes ago Member since: Feb 16, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Warrants / EPS Est

    by mark.wade1960 May 20, 2016 7:38 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 20, 2016 10:39 AM Flag

    The options that have been used are not the hit. The big hit is the change in the value of open options.

    Last quarter the stock price increased so much in the quarter that the change in the value of open options caused a 5.692 million non cash loss.

    This quarter the stock started at 4.36 and it currently at 3.66. If the stock stays below 4.36 until June 30th there will be no options loss line item for the quarter and if the price ends the quarter below 4.36 there would be a non cash gain.

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade May 18, 2016 11:35 AM Flag

    Nothing tells the future madam Olga.

    The growth in the stock price is caused by current performance combined with expectations for the future. As the sales have grown and the operational profits have continued to improve along with the growth in cash flow the stock has risen along with institutional ownership.

    as the sales grow and the system usage grows (dollar and transactions per port) and the cash flow grows the stock should continue to rise.

    You keep trying to point to a time when the company was bleeding cash and the stock was dropping to compare things too. As I have said many times before the growth has to stop or even reverse to get your desired drop back to penny stock land.

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade May 18, 2016 11:23 AM Flag

    I am just trying to make money, not take it personally.

    It was very good money buying in the last 2 times the stock dropped in a big way.

    It is a very simple question of whether or not the sales will get close to even fro the second quarter and whether there will be a big enough jump in the third quarter from the jump in branded and private label to cause the stock to jump. I really do not think that I will want to be in the stock when they actually try to perform the factory upgrade, but you never know.

    Your personal attacks make it sound as though you are angry about some loss that has already occurred in the stock .

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade May 17, 2016 3:39 PM Flag

    That's funny, this was the first call that he appeared to give credit to some of the new hires.

    He gave credit for adding a new co packer that he did not think they would need at the time but ended up needing, he gave credit for the improvements in efficiency and the cost savings at the plant using the old equipment and even admitted that one of the questions at the end of the call was going to to make one of the new guys happy.

    He did not threaten to drop any bottlers or bad mouth any partners or competitors.

    From what they were saying it sounds as though the revenue run is a little below last year but could catch up or even pass the 12 million if the product turns over the way it did last year.Not quite sure where someone got 10 million for the second quarter on the call, I would be willing to re listen if someone could point out where it was in the cal that they heard it.

    It was kind of boring the way he got all excited about the unlimited possibility of a product that they have not even made a single sale on in the fountain business. I thought for a moment that I was listening to Netpro2 for a minute about the possibility of a gazillion percent increase in sales overnight.

    With them getting past some of the operational problems only time will tell how much business they can get back. It is obvious that they lost a very big opportunity with everything from Kombucha to the Dr Better's being stocked at Trader Joe's until they were unable to restock. , but the stock is going to move forward based on current reality moving forward.Historically this stock has gotten back on track after each big drop, in this instance it does not need any big surprise just steady growth.

    The only other big bonehead move that has not been taken care of yet that people seem to let go is the fact that they bought new equipment quite awhile ago and are paying a high interest rate to finance it whiule it will just be sitting unused in the factory until the end of this year.

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade May 16, 2016 1:56 PM Flag

    Do you think the stock is bouncing back because investers are getting a chance to go over the numbers and are seeing the positive cash flow and are realizing that the loss was for the most part from the change in the value of the options?

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade May 13, 2016 4:16 PM Flag

    only 870 days or less until the stock breaks 10 dollars.

    After the pullback the stock is only up 31% for the year, things looking rough.

  • Reply to

    Down 50 Cents!

    by michael_moore_is_fat May 13, 2016 2:03 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 13, 2016 4:11 PM Flag

    Company does not need cash from expired warrants for anything.

    The company grows more cash flow positive every quarter.

    4.8 million of the loss is that change in value of options no operational loss.

    Sales still growing at a strong rate and transactions and dollars per port also growing.

  • Reply to

    Airlines and consumer spending

    by markbgc May 12, 2016 3:13 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 12, 2016 6:39 PM Flag

    The history of the industry is to overbuy capacity when things are good leading to a pop.

    That is why investors are worried. If capacity continues to grow faster than the market expect the worst, if companies show restraint and slow the growth than things could work out.

    The backlog data in regards to ordered plains, not just for the airlines, but also the leasing companies might give you an idea whether the industry is going to keep increasing capacity at double digits, which is way too fast or will slow down.

  • Reply to

    Reed

    by mgw9514 May 12, 2016 10:08 AM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 12, 2016 11:25 AM Flag

    You think that call was worse than last years third quarter??

    Why??

  • Reply to

    ot done

    by boardwalk97 May 9, 2016 3:14 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 11, 2016 5:55 PM Flag

    Well if you are looking for an 18% drop in second quarter sales you might just get the price you want as son as it happens.

  • Reply to

    ot done

    by boardwalk97 May 9, 2016 3:14 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 11, 2016 5:23 PM Flag

    What, couldn't find any comparable business with this valuation? Heck I can find oil producers and retailers with lower valuations, but even Lifeway that has hit the wall in terms of sales is valued at 1.33 times sales

  • Reply to

    ot done

    by boardwalk97 May 9, 2016 3:14 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 11, 2016 10:04 AM Flag

    That is a great assessment. You are contending that the company is worth less than 20 million dollars or less than 40% of sales. What valuation metric are you using???????

  • Reply to

    ot done

    by boardwalk97 May 9, 2016 3:14 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 10, 2016 10:52 AM Flag

    Whine whine whine without saying anything seems to be your mantra. I understand those really cheap options that you say you bought have to be even cheaper than they were when you bought them, hey I bought a few shares before last quarters numbers and am trying to decide when to pick up a few more? Before or after the numbers are released?

    After all they said on the last call sales were running flat for the first quarter.It does not appear as though other product business that was down last year has picked up and of course in the first quarter of last year was the last quarter with a big jump in Kombucha sales of 32% before the collapsed ( the last retailer in this area that was carrying the product TFM has pulled the product)

    That means the company could show healthy growth in at least the Reed's product with flat sales and since all of the other products collapsed last year starting in the second quarter it could set the company up for some positive comps finally.

    On the other hand they have still not announce the completion of the plant upgrade, which could lead one to ask whether it will ever be completed and even with some improved metrics the company will need profitable second and third quarter results to deal with their high cost debt.

    That brings up the big question. Buy before the numbers are released, after the numbers are released or avoid all together?

  • Reply to

    Debt increased to 4.1 million

    by nuttierthansquirrellshiat May 5, 2016 8:45 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 6, 2016 9:58 AM Flag

    Channel stuffing is illegal and implies illegal activity. Shipping to a new account,as long as they are able to pay their bills, is a good thing.

    It sounds as though you are saying that they should not ship to the new account because it might not work out. If the company follows that guide line, nothing would ever ship and the company would never grow because it would be paralyzed with fear about what might happen..

    Instead of just saying that you think that the current good news will be short lived and the numbers will turn in future quarters, you try and twist yourself up into a pretzel to convince yourself that current numbers are actually bad while just making yourself appear foolish.

  • Reply to

    Debt increased to 4.1 million

    by nuttierthansquirrellshiat May 5, 2016 8:45 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 5, 2016 11:07 PM Flag

    Every time you get caught lying you just roll off on a tangent with another line of bs.

    Channel stuffing is forcing retailers and/or distributors to take more inventory than they want and in many cases it is illegal.

    Sending orders to a new customer is not channel stuffing.

  • Reply to

    Debt increased to 4.1 million

    by nuttierthansquirrellshiat May 5, 2016 8:45 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade May 5, 2016 10:11 PM Flag

    total current liabilities is not the companies debt. HAHAHAHA

    They actually paid 4 thousand down on the line of credit.While and increase in ap and acrual raised the total current liability about 600 thousand from the end of the year the inventory and ar increased enough to raise total current assets over 700 thousand.Looks as though things did better than anyone expected for just the first quarter.

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade Apr 29, 2016 1:36 PM Flag

    At this point a buyout would be for less than the stock price of the company.

    It seems as though people are unfamiliar with the ownership structure.

    The company through a 50/50 partnership only owns half of the Gosling business, but reports 100% of revenue as theirs.After all the company did report over 2 million in income tax last year. That was all from inside the partnership.

    Say someone wants to buy Goslings at a little over 5 times revenue ( a little high) and pay 180 million.90 million would go to the family that owns half of the partnership and 90 million would go to Rox. That would only be 55 million short of the companies public value.

    The potential growth in stock is pretty much tied to continued demand in the whiskey and the companies ability to produce more. All of the other non Gosling products appear to be dead in the water. Since the company only owns half of Gosling I would not hold my breath for the help from a buyout in the short term.

  • Reply to

    they are going to some 7-11s near them

    by netprophecy2 Apr 28, 2016 2:36 PM
    dogma_blade dogma_blade Apr 29, 2016 11:05 AM Flag

    Where exactly did you get the information that the product is not moving well at 50% of the store?

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade Apr 29, 2016 10:52 AM Flag

    Of course ignore the part about how the stock will go up due to rising sales, cash flow and operational profits.

  • dogma_blade dogma_blade Apr 28, 2016 11:10 PM Flag

    Everyone already knows that they are going to report a loss because of the change in the value of the options over the quarter.

    You will go on one of your foolish rants about how much they are losing as the stock goes up.

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