.... in order for Echelon to maintain a PPS in the $2's.
If you look at the decline of their inventory levels, you'll know what'll come up in their Q3 guidance.
............ Purchased materials ..... WorkInProgress ...... Finished Goods ............ Total
Q1/14 ...... $ 1,261 ............................ n/a ......................... $ 4,357 ................ $ 5,618
Q1/13 ...... $ 2,061 ............................ $ 23 ........................ $ 8,465 ............... $ 10,549
I don't think the process is completed. Well, it's pretty obvious, it isn't - both Tauron and Echelon's VAR will announce the completion of the tender for this major project as soon as they come to a conclusion ... then, Echelon can write its PRs and pump away ....
AFAIU, stage 1 of the process is completed - LG (Echelon), S&T (Echelon), and Landis were retained - and on June 26 the objections of S&T were already rejected. So, I _guess_ there is a stage 2, but I don't know what that involves. Maybe these three companies can improve on their bids during that phase ...
Echelon's VAR has NOT signed the contract yet, so there's no way Echelon could write a PR ...... Judging by what was published about the tendering process, Echelon will likely get this ~$21M revenues over the next 2 1/2 years, and Sege will pump the (c)(r)(a)(p) out of it with PRs stating the population of Poland and the 5 million meter potential ...
"... Look at this date ...."
What the date proves is that there are morons everywhere among the bloggers.
If you were to punch in "T-Mobile" and "Echelon" into google's search engine, the last we heard about this partnership was in 2009 .... which obviously poses the question why T-Mobile and/or Echelon did not move ahead with this project and provide wireless offerings at that time.
U talking about this 2009 announcement of Echelon, right?
Echelon and T-Mobile Announce Alliance to Reduce the Cost of a Secure Smart Grid Network for Utilities
(San Jose, CA and Bellevue, WA - April 22, 2009) - Echelon Corporation (NASDAQ: ELON) and T-Mobile USA, Inc., today announced an alliance to accelerate the adoption of the smart grid in the North American market by reducing the communications cost of smart meters through the deployment of Echelon's Networked Energy Services (NES) system over T-Mobile's GSM cellular network. As part of the agreement, Echelon will utilize a first-of-its-kind embedded T-Mobile SIM within a cellular radio module to enable all the Echelon smart meters on a given low voltage transformer to communicate back to the utility over the smart grid, and T-Mobile will offer users of Echelon's NES system innovative and cost-effective pricing plans for data usage.
My optimism grows by the day, really :) ... if tauron could delay this likely contract for Echelon until after Q2/14, that would be awesome ... if not, my optimism will shrink again ... but think positive, if I get shares of ELON in the high $1's, and ELON happens to zerooo out, I'll lose exactly 100%, the exact same percentage as you'll lose - i'll likely lose it a little faster though .... and if I happen to make a ton, you'll break even and have nothing to complain .... so, it's all good.
This latest smart-grid pl note estimates Apator's share of the Wroclaw pie at ZL 24.3M, or ~US$ 8.7 ... which gives some credibility to Sege's higher estimate of US$ 21.5M for Echelon. At least that "seems" to move into Echelon's favor. It would be a major disaster for the PPS if Sege couldn't announce this contract by Q2/14 CC, considering that he'll likely talk about Q3/14 revenue closer to US$ 15M.
OSGP Alliance is growing and welcomes in its ranks Polish company Apator SA. May 30, 2014 Apator SA entered into an agreement with WorldIT Systems Ltd. for the design and delivery of electricity meters in technology OSPG accordance with the requirements of the project UZZ/107/PO/2013 - "Smart City Wrocław". The estimated value of the contract amounts to 24.3 million zł net, and delivery will be made by the end of 2016,
Apator The agreement also contains provisions relating to:
of the option to increase the number of ordered counters to 20 percent.,
the possibility of granting supplementary contracts of up to 50 percent. estimated value of the contract.
In the case of exercise of the right of option or the possibility of supplementary order delivery will be made by the end of 2017
The agreement is concluded under the following conditions:
conclusion by Tauron Distribution SA consortium agreement with LG CNS Co.. Ltd, WorldIT Systems Ltd., Eltel Networks A / S and Eltel Olsztyn SA
Tauron qualify Distribution SA Apator SA as a subcontractor.
"... It has been mentioned many times that the JV enables R&D for new products. ..."
Yep - after Echelon pumped State Grid certification (remember?) ad nauseam, and hyped the potential to sell Echelon-Holley modules to other manufacturers in China, leading this board to talk about tens of millions of meter sales and hundreds of millions of $$$ in revenues from China (remember?), and after nothing happened for a year or two, it sure "has been mentioned many times that the JV enables R&D for new products." What else could they come up with to justify this minor disaster _so far_ ... but like I said, I am positive that some day a contract pops up.
"... Considering that Echelon is able to introduce new products in both Grid and IIoT without spending much cash might be the best indication that the JV is ..."
Classic. Judging by the consensus of this board two or three years ago, which you seemed to have shared wholeheartedly, this new insight that we should forget about revenues when it comes to Echelon-Holley seems hindsight.
No, that 25K sale was a disposal of shares for non-tax purposes. He filed another tax-related sale on May 26. Lots of mixed signals ....
"... Maybe we will get more than once announcement, since it sounded like they were close on a few others ..."
Agree, the period of silence and (B.)(S.)'ing should end soonish...
- As ELON indicates in its shareholder presentation, the tendering process for Hafslund's (HL) 500K+ meters will start this Q2/14, with decision making scheduled for the end of this year ... Sadly, I can only find positives there. (1) ELON's marquee costumer Fortum owns ~1/3 of HL; (2) HL dealt with ELON in its Oslo street lighting project. (3) HL already contracted Capgemini as the system integrator, a further indicator that the rollout is near; (4) HL already contracted KEMA for QA, and KEMA announced its QA support for OSGP....
- The 100K rollout of Fortum/Norway is already in the bag ... heard they want to start in 2015 ... assuming this will be a pure ELON rollout, this would add ~$10M into ELON's revenue coffer.
- I know very little about (D)(o)(n)(g), but I assume Eltel/OSGP will be part of this tender ... likely with Apator meters as well ... Apator has strong ties with Danish utilities.
- Then there are the 2M+ meters at Austrian utilities that showed interest for OSGP-based solutions - Wien, Steiermark, IKG, ... Understandably, Sege can't talk about it anymore due to the regulatory delays there, but for all we know, this is still real.
- And, Sege is still weaseling around on the Middle East potential. Judging by those comments, ELON might pop up with some minor announcement ... might not be the big one but helpful.
- Why Holley entered into a JV with ELON and seemingly is not able to generate business for this JV in their homeland remains a riddle in my mind. Both extremes are possible ... from a cancelation of the JV to a sizable contract of more than 1 million modules with a manufacturer there ....
- And presumably we'll see further announcements on the IoT(/IPv6)front. Nothing will help ELON if they can't stop the decay of this high-margin revenue stream.
"... If that hold true here, 350,000 meters would create a $35 mill revenue for ELO over the next 2 years (contract through 2016). ..."
Sege mentioned this pilot would amount to $21.5 million for Echelon over 28 months.
Sege, Q1/14 CC: "I am pleased to report that Echelon and our consortium partners were ranked first in the published results of an important RFT process in Poland for a 330,000 meter or $21.5 million to Echelon pilot in Warsaw with a large electric utility, Tauron .... As part of the offer, both Echelon and Apator one of Poland’s leading suppliers of electric gas and water meters will supply OSGP compliant meters to the consortium. If ultimate we confirm this award can position us well for the ultimate upgrade of Tauron’s 5 million meter installed base. We expect this pilot to rollout over 28 months after the contract is signed. ..."
Unlike the header insinuates, the content of the following google-translated smart-grids pl note reads more like Tauron concluded the Wroclaw tender in favor of LG CNS/Eltel/OSGP, but the text is not really conclusive. Why no Echelon PR?
May 29, 2014, TAURON resolve Distribution SA tendering Fri: Implementation of smart metering AMI TD SA - 1.etapa: Smart City Wroclaw (2013/TD/TD-CN/03092/L). Was selected as the most advantageous bid consortium LG CNS, which has offered solutions based on technology OSGP. Tenders submitted in the proceedings consortia S & T Services Poland Sp. z oo and Landis + Gyr Ltd.
tauron Tauron Distribution SA announced that the result of the examination and evaluation of tenders submitted in the Tender has been recognized as the most advantageous bid submitted by the contractors jointly applying for the award of the contract: LG CNS Co.. Ltd., WorldIT Systems Ltd., Eltel Networks A / S and Eltel Olsztyn SA consortium offer received the highest scoring - 100 points.
Contractors jointly applying for the award of the contract LG CNS Co.. Ltd., WorldIT Systems Ltd., Eltel Networks A / S and Eltel Olsztyn SA meet the conditions for participation in the Tender and submitted their offer is consistent with the Terms of Reference and meets its requirements.
"an IPhone for the modern grid" ... hmmm ... that sure does sounds like the app-based smart grid that only Echelon has :o) .... Say, dc10, I remember that Nasdaq once sent your corporate heroes a letter that Ambient would get delisted unless they can produce a golden rabbit from their hat ... or something to that effect ... by June 2? Any announcement yet?
"... Why wouldn't elon get bought by apple or google? ..."
Other than a working R&D infrastructure, ELON has nothing to offer that would be of strategic interest to Apple or Google. ELON's meters ... lol, OSGP ... nope, legacy LonWorks installations ... nah. Apple or Google would need to revamp most of Echelon and fast-track Sege's futuristic plans on IPv6-based communications and analytics. I doubt that's worth the hassle for these two. There are other, smaller companies that might want to build up on Echelon's legacy on a smaller scale, or merge.
"... It would be cheap money. ..."
I doubt very much that's a major incentive for these two ....
I suppose those with logical thinking might respond that every customer/partner with a brand name in the industry and that uses LonWorks or is involved in LonMarks will easily qualify for this marketing slide. As has been discussed ad nauseam, it's one thing to talk about companies/partners that use LonWorks and Neuron processors and quite another about companies/partners that pay Echelon _meaningful_ amounts of $$$. Did Echelon rename its LonWorks myth page to IIoT myths?
Lot's of la la la in ELON's 2014 shareholder meeting presentation, but their list of upcoming potentials is real.
- Tauron, Poland; 350k pilot | Decision Q2 2014, 500k pilot Q1 2016, Potential 5 million smart meters
- Hafslund, Norway; 650,00 smart meters; RFP Q2 2014 | Decision Q4 2014; Deployment Q1 2016
- (D)(o)(n)(g), Denmark; 1 million smart meters; RFP Q3 2014 | Decision Q2 2015; Deployment Q1 2016
"... Forgetting a couple things indeed. ..."
Classic sf_elon. Now we seriously discuss Echelon's potential as regards Sierra Monitor's Field"server" gateway solutions, because Sierra hired away Echelon's sales/marketing folks.
Anyway, since sf_elon wants to talk about Echelon's potential with Sierra, so let's ask her to get a tad bit deeper than merely referring to LonMarks and to the benefit of reducing SKU's. She should start with estimates of how many Field"server" gateways Sierra sells, how many LonWorks modules Sierra deploys in those "gateways" to interface and manage LonWorks networks, how much revenue Sierra makes form non-gateway "devices", how much Echelon gets when Sierra sells a Neuron5000-based product, whether IzoT is overkill for many of Sierra's customers, how Sierra would deploy client-side IzoT on proprietary devices and protocols that FieldServer manages, and how much Echelon would get from Sierra - in a year or two - for licensing IzoT, if Sierra or one of its own customers decides to use it .
JFYI ... Sierra: "... Protocol Gateways : By delivering data on multiple communication platforms, including serial, Ethernet, Lonworks and fieldbus utilizing protocols from an extensive proprietary library of over 100 protocol drivers, the Company’s products make it possible for data to be accessed at more appropriate levels, including automation controllers, network operations centers, control rooms and remote locations. ..."
But then again, this whole thing is a distraction from the real problem that Nagaraj/Axelsson know exactly what Echelon is up to and can effectively tap Echelon's potential direct customers, partners, and customers of those partners with Sierra's gateway solutions.
Well, I'd say your dot-connecting from the resignation of the two senior executives Nagaraj and Axelsson all the way to Sierra Monitor's use of the FT6050 and IzoT is undoubtedly a sign of a positive thinker. Good.
But, since we are - mostly - adults on this forum, I am certain you won't mind me offering an alternative theory. I am sure you remember Sege's talk about the 100+ customers that Echelon interviewed prior to launching their latest strategy involving the migration of legacy LonWorks networks into something more state-of-the-art, ultimately leading to IPv6-All-The-Way. In my mind, it stands to reason that Nagaraj and Axelsson were central to this effort, one might even argue that many if not most of these 100+ customers were contacted by Nargarj or Axelsson themselves. Now, if we continue on this path of thinking, I'd also say that Nagaraj/Axelsson have a good understanding of what these 100+ customers want and need, and given all this, I might conclude that a central part of Nagarja's own strategy as CEO of Sierra Monitor will be to tap into exactly this network of 100+ customers that he interviewed and Echelon seeks to serve.
While Echelon's peer-to-peer approach with IzoT seems different from the Fieldserver approach of Sierra Monitor, both having their pros and cons, my feeling is that Sierra Monitor will battle Echelon in their effort to enter Sierra's turf of protocol translation, and part of this battle is hiring away Echelon's key folks.
"Sege didn't directly comment about this acquisition" ... because it's not related to Echelon.
Elonverylong^2's assertion that Streetlight vision technology is "based" on Echelon LonWorks is as good as her post that Buffet has invested in Echelon .... Streetlight.Vision being able to "interface with" and "manage" LonWorks networks does not mean it is "based" on it.