For those who are still interested in metering :)
Why Holley engaged in this JV with Echelon and put $2M into it remains a mystery. I understand SnT will also take over this JV. We'll see if they'll continue with it. ... Recently, Iskraemeco also announced that they chose Enverv's PLC chips for their Prime and G3 support.
BANGKOK, Thailand & San Jose, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)—Holley Metering and EnVerv, Inc.
announced today their collaboration on a range of Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) products.
The single phase and three phase Smart Meter families cover applications for Residential,
Commercial and Industrial AMI Metering in which EnVerv’s EV8000 Power-Line Communications
(PLC) modem will be employed as the communication platform.
“We selected EnVerv as our AMI technology partner for Thailand due to their successful field tests in
Thailand and their proven performance under challenging network conditions”, said Frank Shou,
Managing Director of Holley Group Electric (Thailand) Co., Ltd. “Integrating EnVerv’s multi-protocol
modems allow our AMI trials and deployments to be future proof against any changes in AMI
communications standards while also enabling switching of the network between standards of
PRIME or G3-PLC.”
The EV8000 is a fully integrated single-chip PLC SoC that includes comprehensive modem
functionality from the power line to the network layer and has programmable frequency bands,
covering CENELEC-A, FCC and ARIB bands without the need for chip or module hardware changes.
Furthermore, the EV8000 soft-modem can be programmed to operate in ITU-T G.9903 (G3-PLC),
ITU-T G.9904 (PRIME), IEEE P1901.2 and IEC-61334 (S-FSK) modes simply by downloading their
respective firmware code to the chip remotely over the power line network
Your assessment of ELON's current state of affairs is objective and reflects mine. IMO, the new ELON is about $15M short in revenues to break even, _IF_ we grant them a 60% gross margin and assume that they cut OPEX for their ex-"Grid" segment completely. It's certainly doable. At least, this will put the new ELON on a solid foundation. Hope over time, we will learn more about the average prices per FT chip and IZoT licensing that the new ELON may provide to the kinds of SnT.
I am more excited about SnT's long-term potential though. They are trading in Frankfurt. This local article I was talking about can be googled and translated with: "Linzer S&T steigt in den smarten Energiemarkt ein"
"... what nonsense! Cisco "officially" announced their leaving the smartgrid arena ... ...read the article in previous post silly.. Why are you still defending your ignorance?, is the real question."
Alz, I just quoted the Itron CEO from their May's Q1/14 CC about their smart grid collaboration with Cisco. You can easily query Cisco's grid router offerings. You can even watch YouTube videos from 2014 on Cisco's smart grid offerings for the utility industry ... and you are telling this board that "... Cisco dropped right out of this business ...".
So, pull up this article and quote what exactly Cisco abandoned. And then tell us that Cisco abandoned the home energy market, and instead focused on providing smart grid infrastructures to carry IPv6 traffic into the last mile toward IPv6-enabled devices where Cisco decided to collaborate with the kinds of Itron for home solutions. Is quoting too hard for you?
Your mind works in an interesting way. How do you make up all this stuff, and why? Does it make you feel better? That's total nonsense again what you write.
Cisco's IOx platform and its Itron collaboration are obviously alive. Itron is working with Cisco to build smart meter applications.
Don't take my word for granted, just google -- once in 15 years a bit of DD wouldn't hurt -- to support what the little straw man in your head whispers into your mind. He's utmost unreliable fellow ... you should know that by now. .And this is what Itron's CEO said about Cisco in their Q1/14 CC:
Mezey, Q1/14: "...Itron's IPv6 smart grid platform, that we jointly developed with Cisco supports an extensive set of capabilities including voltage monitoring and outage management, time of use pricing, demand response, theft detection, and net metering...."
Mezey, Q1/14: ".. In addition, Duke and Itron will collaborate to introduce new grid applications using Cisco’s IOx operating system for the utilities meter-as-a-sensor project. We are advancing grid applications enabled by our OpenWay platform, which extend the value proposition of smart grid systems. This value goes beyond the operational savings from smart metering by bringing intelligence and computing capabilities to the edge of the network. ..."
And there are a few others who are working on similar IPv6-based platforms than Cisco. Ultimately, smart meter manufacturers, incl. SnT AG, will have to adapt to those standards. SnT's chief pumper will then call it OSGP/IP, or something to that effect, and hopefully for you will run it over Echelon's IPv6 chips.
And you might even remember that Itron/Cisco kicked Echelon out of the Duke account ..... there's absolutely no talk that Cisco dropped out of anything.
Found a related article in an Austrian newspaper, which Yahoo does not allow me to post. It shows Niederhauser smiling from ear to ear for this "bargain that could turn into a quantum leap" as he said it. What's interesting is that LG was also involved but Sege apparently decided for the ST deal.
Niederhauser is planning to move development to Austria .... which would not be my first choice though. I'd certainly leave at least project management and architectural design in California .... But, overall, this can work. ST has the manpower to provide a viable alternative to Landis in Europe.
Must be eating "someone" alive to see millions of Echelon "best-of-breed" smart meters being rolled out a year .... by a different company. But stay calm. It will also benefit the new Echelon in the form of chip sales. If this works, that could actually push Echelon across break-even on GAAP earnings.
Found this online. S... (whose name Yahoo does not allow me to spell out!?) seems to be acquiring a 40% stake only. The rest goes to other investors.
Linz, 22.08.2014. @#$% signed today a contract for the
acquisition of the smart grids business of the California-based
Echelon Corporation. The acquisition is to take
place via a company that will soon be founded, and in which S&T AG
will have a 40% stake, with the rest of the new company's shares
being held by strategic and financial investors. The corresponding
contracts have already been concluded.
Just doing some "background googling" about S#$%$ more of a holding company, headquartered in Linz, Austria, with ~1500 employees and subsidiaries throughout Europe. They really have the boots on the ground to build up a massive smart grid business in Europe. Recently, they put all their money on the smart grid, bought Echelon's VAR Ubitronix and a 400 employee company in Russia, and others. Would love to know if they take over the Echelon-Holley JV ... and over long term Echelon's ENEL business.
If you don't want answers, don't ask questions. But I understand your response .... considering.
Yesterday, my best guess was that Echelon would make a deal with Holley similar to what they did today with S&T. It wouldn't have made sense to carry on minimal smart grid operations to meet warranty requirements for Duke, Fortum, etc..
Today's news with S&T is mindboggling.
(Yahoo doesn't post the rest ... try it in a different thread)
I fear the street lighting business won't be the big thing either. The competition in streetlighting communications will be as brutal as for metering. It''s obvious that most meter provider will move into that business too ... I know that Sensus and SSNI have already announced a similar move, and AFAIK Itron's offering solutions as well. IMO, if Echelon could cut yearly revenues of $10 M from street lighting, this would be fantastic.
I remember Sege or Slakey once talking about an average price per subsystem between $5 and $15, and he added that street lights are in the lower range, that is, lower than $10 per endpoint. That may counter the gradual decay of Echelon's LonWorks business, but no more.
".... What price? North of $12, possibly $ 20 ..."
Why don't you start with the beginning rather than with the end. Do you have an idea about "potential" revenues that Echelon could generate from street lights. To do so, please start with the average price per system and potential market share (i suppose market share is lower then "81% and growing", like this board concluded not so long ago about Echelon's smart meter market share in Europe). If you could provide some data, then we have something meaningful to talk about. TIA.
The Feb 2015 calls are trading at 35c right now, so you'd need $ 2.85 to break even ....
Let's do some basic evaluation math. Let's give them a _very_ generous 20 multiple because they are supposed to operate in a growth industry; let's ignore taxes for the time being, which ELON likely won't pay by Feb 2015; let's use extremely low OPEX of $ 28 million ; and let's grant them a generous gross margin of 60%. In this highly optimistic scenario, the new ELON would still have to generate around $59 m in revenues to support a PPS of ~$ 2.85.
(($ 2.85 PPS / 20 multiple) * 43.3 m shares + $ 1 million lease interest + $ 28 m OPEX ) / 60% operating margin = $ 58.6 m in revenues
At a revenue run rate of Q2/14, the new ELON would generate yearly revenues of about $43 m.
Now, if we look at a sale of the company, I'd say $ 2.85 * 43.3 shares = $ 123 million is the maximum that the pumpster community can think of by Feb. 2015. Given the commentary of Sege during the CC, I doubt that a possible sale of the Grid business would generate significantly more than $10 m in cash.
Sounds like a sure loss.
You can find the grid revenues (formerly, mostly system revenues) in the 10-K's.
I was more interested in how far ELON will be off break even if they shut down or sold their Grid business.
From the Q2/14 presentation, one can infer ~$3.8 M of Grid OPEX in Q2/14, which Slakey mentioned would go away over the next few Q's.
"... Patrick Jobin - CS
So the decision to exit Grid, it seems like you could emerge very focused on IIoT and certainly improve the P&L structure here. Just want to make sure I'm looking at some calculations correctly. I'm back calculating roughly about $3.8 million in Grid-related OpEx. Do you think that, that's an achievable spend that you could take out of the business following the sale or otherwise exiting the business?
William R. Slakey
Patrick, this is Bill. Yes, I do. It will take us several quarters to get that done. But yes, I do. ..."
In addition, ELON mentioned $3.2 M of corporate OPEX, which one may assume will also reduce, but IMO no more than to $2.5 M.
From the above, we can draw a few inferences:
1) Q2/14 Non-GAAP OPEX stood at $11.5 M. If we deduct $3.8 M of Grid OPEX and say $0.7 of Corporate OPEX, then the new ELON would operate at $7 M of quarterly OPEX, or $28 M of yearly OPEX.
2) If the new ELON were to generate a 60% gross margin, then they will need $28 M / 0.6 = $46.7 M of revenues to break even on operating margin, which I believe would also imply break even on cash flow.
3) Right now, IIoT revs without ENEL stand at $8.6 M. If we take this number as the run rate going forward, this imply yearly revs of $ 34.4 M. Yearly ENEL revs are typically around $8 M. So, the new ELON (_w/out Grid_) would generate $42.4 M of revs.
Based on the above, the new ELON would still be $4.3 M of revenues off from break even, which is manageable though.
But Sege & Co. will have to generate revenues from their new FT chips soooooon to stop the decay of the IIoT LonWorks revenues and generate new Bacnet and IPv6 revenues.
"Their keeping the Enel business and all of the IP related to grid IIOT."
You were right about Enel. Just checked the Q2/14 CC Transcript.
Sege: "I'll start with Enel. And yes, that's correct. Enel will be part of our ongoing IIoT business with builds is how we classify it today. And in fact, we could conceivably sell that kind of a platform to other utilities."
This is good news. Presumably, Enel is a 60%+ gross margin business. So their LTM Q2/14 (least twelve months) IoT revenues are around $42 million. It's not enough yet, but it gives them a chance to grow to the $47 M to $50 M needed to break even and survive - assuming that they shut down or sell all the remaining Grid stuff.
"I was flabbergasted that no one (including the analysts) didn't address Tauron during the call."
It might explain why Tauron could not come to a conclusion about their Wroclaw pilot. AFIAU, Eltel's bid included Echelon OSGP modules, DCN, and meters. From the comments in the CC, it's pretty clear that Echelon won't deliver any of their "best-of-breed" meters anymore, it's less clear whether they'll continue to sell their "app-based" DCN - likely not -, and it's totally unclear whether they'll sell OSGP modules. If Echelon can't find a buyer that supports Eltel's bid, I suppose Tauron will have to redo its tender, and Eltel's project manager would likely curse Echelon like BABA ...
"... Yahoo shows 17mil dept, is this paid off and not updated yet? ..."
Well, that's "special" debt, though ... apparently, they had to account their leasing of the buildings as debt.
"... Their keeping the Enel business and all of the IP related to grid IIOT ..."
- As regards Enel, I am certain Sege said they may sell it to a utility (I suppose, Enel) if there is interest.
- As regards IP, Echelon will certainly hold the IP for LonWorks-related technologies (the standard itself is public domain), but my question was whether they still plan on selling OSGP modules via Apator, Mitsubishi, ELO, or Holley is still in the cards.
hey babba ...... your post didn't get through .... could you de-slur it and re-post it .... i'd be interested in what you have to say .... have fun
I am at a loss here to figure out what they are planning to do. Will they discontinue selling OSGP control modules, which fall under their Grid segment (AFAIU)? Holley? ECN? Are they pulling out of the Tauron potential? Sege sort of hinted that the Enel business could be sold as well, if they can find a buyer .... well, the rest would generate $35M in revenues at this time .... can this support the company, let alone a share price above $1.