fair enough... but don't expect anything to happen. i was one of the more vocal longs, but now at this point i realize it is over. all ups and downs will be to day traders/speculators with short covering...
he's got it right gilbert. after the BK sale goes through, that 35M will go toward liabilities, legal costs, etc... nothing will be left for shareholder...
as i said numerous times, i suspected this would happen... this company has no regard to its shareholders... and all the employees will be fine. mgmt keeps their salaries and jobs and the company actually becomes healthier with toshiba's resources. this year was the "illusion" of trying to stay independent.
you telling me they couldn't do a secondary and dilute us severely rather than face BK? you telling me BK was the best option? they new they violated Hercules covenant long ago and they could call back the loan at ANY TIME. they didn't plan well and this is what happened. IT IS OVER.
It is over buddy. Seriously time to move on. It's a blessing. This company when it doesn't lie is incompetent. Seriously thought the IP would at least spark some time of value in the BO... But no one wants it. That's the truth.
I don't think any realists here are surprised what happened here. I've been straightforward with everyone regarding the real possibility of this happening especially with ocz publicly stating that they were in violation with the Hercules covenants. However, the biggest misrepresentation was demand for their enterprise products. They had one large win and that was SATA/SAS. We might have had msft at one point but that contract was lost due to MGMT's inability to secure NAND (a huge failing). If we had future demand of our enterprise offerings (pcie) we would have seen outer suitors. Truth is, what we had in the pipeline just was not worth it. This company has never been about the shareholders and frankly we were misled about their IP.
Take it for what it is worth. Don't invest in flash. This industry is too competitive and even the highest of margins won't produce profit due to stagnant revenue growth.
Now we all can move on.
well i'm in the same position... i think we end up at least around 1... if I sell here, i don't think i can make 100% that quick any where else, so i'm content to wait now.
well to be fair, the promotion with the defense bundle looks like to be a tigerdirect only promotion... but the 79.99 vertex is what troubles me... i think they are trying to boost Q3 rev as much as they can at this point.
i think what we're beginning to see with ocz is a focus on endurance/reliability... ocz in the past set themselves apart from the crowd with their performance, but their reliability took a big hit... now they're R&D is focused on the exact opposite, while maintaining above average performance... anyone that is interested in ocz would like to see an improvement in real world endurance/latency especially after sustained use of the drive... that's why with the vector 150 you basically saw the same performance specs, but a huge improvement in endurance... that's what the market see value in.
i've asked myself that many times. if i was to sell, i should have done it 1.20+... the way this crashed unexpectedly took me by surprise... i continue to hold at this point because i don't have much to lose (since I've lost 90% of it)... and the IP in IMO is still worth more than 40m.
"The OCZ Vertex 450 128GB Solid State Drive (SSD) can be had along with the Total Defense Premium Internet Security Bundle -- for a mere $29.99. TigerDirect has been doing quite a few of these bundles with Total Defense Premium Internet Security. Usually they involve a large rebate, in this case $90, but users are required to activate the software in addition to sending in a mail-in rebate form....
The OCZ Vertex 450 128GB Solid State Drive (SSD) can be had along with the Total Defense Premium Internet Security Bundle -- for a mere $29.99. TigerDirect has been doing quite a few of these bundles with Total Defense Premium Internet Security. Usually they involve a large rebate, in this case $90, but users are required to activate the software in addition to sending in a mail-in rebate form."
if you buy the vertex 450 128gb off tigerdirect, its $79.99 after rebate which is still a pretty good deal... i seriously don't know how they are making money off this...
he mentioned he specifically avoided it. he wanted to him an information conversation regarding the industry and ocz's tech rather than berate him with unfounded rumors and speculation... we all know of ocz's financial probs, why not try approaching the topic that actually offers some insight?
just some rough numbers here... future rev guidance 120-130m annual, cash ~30M (is this the latest #?), ~20M debt, cash burn rate very high, still losing already lost 93M on 80M of rev this past 9 months...
at $3 or so, still trading at around 2x annual Rev... which is an OK valuation on a company not really growing in the coming quarters....
when you throw in the high cash burn rate, these guys will need another injection of cash in the next few quarters (more dilution/conv debt ?)... so this doensn't look good folks... throw in more competition, you'll also see lowered guidance...
only thing i see here is long term holders pray for a BO.. i'm guessing their IP is actually worth something and GM's are high, ~55% and all the revenue is enterprise.
For OCZ - however - the oppsoite is true. The things OCZ is learning from their VXL customer base will make them just as sticky in this segment of the market as Fusion-io is in their own neck of the enterprise - in very large installations. These reasons for preferring different suppliers of PCIe SSDs began to be clear a few years ago - and are becoming more concrete.
At the end of our conversation I thanked Ralph and Alex for nailing down and confirming a bunch of guesses and also introducing me to some new insights which point towards OCZ evolving into a much more soundly based competitor in the SSD market in the next few years than most people might have imagined.
Although OCZ still has to be super cautious and prove that it can work as a sound business operating under the financial constraints it has now - it seems to me that this company - which once operated in too many markets and was master of none - has been able to judiciously select some market niches and ways to sustain competitive advantage in them - especially in the unmined vast regions of the enterprise SSD market - which could put it a year or so down the track - ahead of the SSD business learning curve.
On the subject of enterprise SSDs and software - Ralph said that OCZ has been hiring more firmware engineers to grow their capabilities in this market.
That got me onto the subject of a new enterprise controller design - which Ralph and Alex told me about - which will be a completely new design which also leverages the adaptive R/W technology etc from their existing barefoot but which is better optimized for high performance PCIe SSDs. I did learn the date and some of the characteritics - but I won't say any more about that here - because the details could change and it would be better for that new controller to star in its own news show.
I didn't broach the subject of comparing OCZ's new controller design with LSI's new 3rd generation controller - which was launched this week - because that was under embargo at that time.
Thinking about it now - I don't think it really matters whether OCZ's new enterprise SSD controller emerges with chip level performance specs which are higher, lower or about the same as LSI.
That's because the key differentiator in any related PCIe SSD would still be the relative strength and usefulness of the associated software.
For LSI - the caching software they offer - is less strategically bound to their controller sales - because most of their SSD oems will use their own choice of different software.