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Western Refining, Inc. Message Board

domtex6 21 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 1, 2014 5:11 PM Member since: Nov 19, 2010
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  • domtex6 domtex6 Jul 1, 2014 5:11 PM Flag

    Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, It would attract new investors to the space,probably will not happen just yet because the dealers are protecting the shorts who their major customers.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • domtex6 domtex6 Jul 1, 2014 4:30 PM Flag

    I've seen this type of manipulation many times before,no worries.Shorts are trying to hold back a tsunami when we're ready, it's going explode higher.Off the top of my head potential catalysts include,Great monthly numbers,release of reserves,Great earnings,Major broker dealer upgrade.Short covering simultaneously .I expect all of the above to possibly start happening starting this month.Wait for a nice gap up in price on the opening then you will get take off in price.The downside,major market meltdown.I like our chances.The shorts are trying to hold it down here to avoid margin calls,won't work much longer.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Barron's Article

    by domtex6 Jun 29, 2014 3:03 PM
    domtex6 domtex6 Jun 29, 2014 10:27 PM Flag

    I do my own homework and analysis and take everything that is disseminated in the media with a grain of salt.Everyone that is on television or publishes an article usually have their own agenda,especially with the housing market and the GSE's . All metrics are improving in regards to MTG and in the end that is all that matters.I have a huge long position and have no problem waiting a couple of years.I went against the grain in WNR And MU not so long ago when they were hated and heavily shorted and did quite well and at the moment MTG is my best risk to reward investment profile idea.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Article published in Barron's yesterday suggested that if the Republicans win in November,winners might include Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac,PSX66, ACI, MTG,RDN.You have to subscribe to Barron's to read the entire Article online .

    Sentiment: Buy

  • domtex6 domtex6 Jun 29, 2014 8:49 AM Flag

    Russell index rebalancing and end of quarter portfolio adjustment.Get ready for a rocket ride on the upside starting this month.Where is the supply going to come from?The shorts are already in the hole,institutional longs are not going to sell.You may see some options call buying to hedge,but that's it.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • domtex6 domtex6 Jun 25, 2014 9:32 PM Flag

    Credit Suisse had PMI Mortgage as top pick and strong buy, just before they filed for Bankruptcy.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • domtex6 domtex6 Jun 25, 2014 8:51 PM Flag

    Everything you have been saying is absolutely correct.A major move is coming to the upside, all the technicals that have been written on this board is total nonsense, the fundamentals trumps everything else.There will no equity offering to save the shorts besides volume is anemic while the stock is consolidating .It is apparent to me that Mortgage Insurers have a huge role to play in the housing market going forward which will attract new investors and create a perfect storm.John Paulson apparently thinks so because he is in the top 5 shareholder in RDN and MTG and is in the top 10 holder in GNW.The patient long term INVESTOR will be well rewarded,everyone else let them trade for the nickels and dimes and worry about the technicals.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    HIGHEST CLOSING PRICE FOR MTG SINCE APRIL 2011

    by tommiegun53 Jun 17, 2014 9:20 PM
    domtex6 domtex6 Jun 18, 2014 7:48 AM Flag

    The shorts should be terrified.The recent softness and volatility in the overall market did not cause any decline in the stock,instead it showed tremendous resiliency.Hoping for a market sell off is not a good strategy and that is the only hope that they have.All other operating metrics are improving and is on the mend.This stock is a tremendous opportunity .No supply around when they have to cover, the longs are in strong hands and will not sell and only delusional shorts will put out more and will have to cover at much higher prices.We are on the runway right now .......

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • domtex6 domtex6 Jun 10, 2014 4:34 PM Flag

    Tom,you are doing an outstanding job so far, but please don't quote that idiot Ken Lewis. The fool took on everything he was offered and paid above the offer.He once said "we know how to do deals" he was a complete moron.

  • domtex6 by domtex6 Jun 6, 2014 7:55 PM Flag

    To everything that Tommie has been writing about.All correct by the way, Fannie, Freddie regulator seeking to raise fees on borrowers.It means any which way you look at it, there will be a huge role for the Private Mortgage Insurers going forward.MTG is repositioning themselves while cleaning up the balance sheet.This situation is a monster opportunity.$20-$30 in less than 2 years.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MTG SHOULD HAVE BEEN $9 A LONG TIME AGO

    by tommiegun53 Jun 5, 2014 12:18 PM
    domtex6 domtex6 Jun 5, 2014 12:25 PM Flag

    Pay they will.the so called smart shorts in the stock are delusional!!! this rally is just the start of the mother of all short covering rally,

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • domtex6 domtex6 Jun 4, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    Tommie,your wishes are about to come to fruition.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The shorts have tried to break MTG to the downside and are unable to do without a market meltdown.The sideways action is very healthy recently.Just a matter of time before they have to start covering which will take it to double digits,a little more patience.You will not regret owning MTG at the end of the year and beyond.They are in the process of healing and calibrating .Shorts are like sheep one starts covering, they all follow.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • domtex6 domtex6 May 20, 2014 7:13 AM Flag

    Thank you Tommie,I have been reading your posts now for quite a while and almost all the statistical data and information you have posted have been accurate.I believe the patient investor will be rewarded enormously going forward. I have a significant long position and believe that the upside is capped temporarily at the $8.90-$9.level because of the converts,however later in the year they will be bought back when the company starts releasing the reserves.The shorts are playing a dangerous game.Keep up the good work!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • domtex6 domtex6 May 16, 2014 9:05 PM Flag

    All these clowns in Washington,Mel Watt forget who they are working for.I guess WE THE PEOPLE means nothing anymore.The shareholders are the taxpayers.Judge Sweeney will remind everyone that the Constitution is still the supreme law of the land.Until someone comes up with a better proposal,Ackman's proposal is the best solution.Barack Hussein Obama doesn't have a clue and should be grateful we have a Federal Reserve that saved his presidency.

  • Reply to

    15.3 RISK TO CAPITAL MGIC BEST IN PMI INDUSTRY

    by tommiegun53 May 8, 2014 11:50 AM
    domtex6 domtex6 May 10, 2014 1:41 PM Flag

    Everything you say is true.MTG had gotten themselves is such bad shape that they were on the brink of bankruptcy, most of those issues are slowly dissipating.MTG might be over capitalized now with a hefty 2.3 billion in loan loss reserves.If the current delinquencies continue at this rate I expect some of that money being returned to shareholders.Also housing is at the forefront of discussions in the congress and the Federal Reserve,they will do everything to support housing.After listening to the conference call of MBI a bond insurer, they are trying to get their house in order to tap into the Mortgage insurance business because of the huge opportunity they see.These shorts will get their heads handed to them when Goldman reiterate their conviction buy call, plus all the positives that you have been writing about.There is tremendous opportunity here.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    last of the cheap stock

    by domtex6 May 8, 2014 7:42 AM
    domtex6 domtex6 May 9, 2014 11:00 PM Flag

    While the recent price action is disheartening,the volume on down days are extremely light.The long term prospects and fundamentals are improving daily.This is the best position that MTG has been since 2006.The overall market is choppy at best even though we are close to all time highs.I expect the price to be at least $11-$12 by the end of the year and considerably higher in the longer term.Hang in there.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Yesterday was an inflection point.Shorts are in denial and will have to cover aggressively,

    Sentiment: Buy

  • domtex6 domtex6 May 1, 2014 4:18 PM Flag

    Completely agree.Any positive catalyst you will see double digits.These shorts are using rear view metrics that do not apply to the current situation.Goldman Sachs does not put single digit stocks on their conviction buy list because they feel like it.I expect upgrades soon.These shorts are trapped big time and will have to pay up, especially during the summer slow volume days!This stock has come a long way recently and is just taking a breather,powerful upward move coming.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    patience

    by domtex6 Apr 28, 2014 7:20 PM
    domtex6 domtex6 Apr 29, 2014 6:26 AM Flag

    Fannie,Freddie have nothing to do Mtg? Really.The MI's have been under pressure since early March when the Johnson/Crapo proposal was put fort to wind down Fannie and Freddie.Shorts have always been prevalent in the stock,the decline has been on average to lighter volume.The monthly options expiration takes place the third Friday of every Month.I never post or respond to ignorance but felt compelled to do so this time.

    Sentiment: Buy

WNR
39.80-0.21(-0.52%)2:32 PMEDT

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