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Emmis Communications Corp. Message Board

don_t_panick 253 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 28, 2015 9:15 PM Member since: Apr 4, 2001
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  • Reply to

    Preferreds under $3 interesting?

    by bagger10 Jan 28, 2015 9:06 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Jan 28, 2015 9:15 PM Flag

    The PR tax refund assets were not included in tier 1 for the last Call Report, but they may still be in big trouble.

  • Reply to

    I need banker friends

    by jeffsedgh Jan 26, 2015 11:01 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Jan 28, 2015 9:55 AM Flag

    Yes, that won't help them at this point.

  • Reply to

    I need banker friends

    by jeffsedgh Jan 26, 2015 11:01 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Jan 28, 2015 9:21 AM Flag

    Lights are dimming on DRL. Fat Lady hasn't sung yet, but she just got out of her seat and is walking up to the podium.

  • don_t_panick don_t_panick Jan 28, 2015 12:09 AM Flag

    It is good that the CFO returned, although not much else I can say that is positive about the DRL issues lately unfortunately. Would love to trade the DRL preferred issues at these levels if there was some real positive news. By the way, check out my Seeking Alpha articles on the GNE preferred and Mill preferred D issues. Both popped 10%+ within a couple of days of the article coming out. Wish I could write say something positive here.

  • Reply to

    Is there something going on with the preferreds?

    by eechicken Jan 27, 2015 1:33 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Jan 27, 2015 6:59 PM Flag

    Aside from the big move in the Mil pref issuesl, GNE-PA also had a big move on very heavy volume following my Seeking Alpha article on that issue. Please feel free to read both articles. In fact, everyone should load them at least a dozen times since SA is paying me for page views. If yahoo paid me for page views, I'd probably be retired on a Caribbean Island by now - LOL.

  • Reply to

    Is there something going on with the preferreds?

    by eechicken Jan 27, 2015 1:33 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Jan 27, 2015 5:37 PM Flag

    Seeking alpha article was out a few days ago.

  • Reply to

    Market Cap Delisting

    by mattdeford Jan 15, 2015 3:57 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Jan 18, 2015 7:20 PM Flag

    About a year with the appeals process and extensions, so not going to happen near term. Bigger concern is them executing better operationally. If they did eventually get delisted there are some implications for preferred stock holders (higher penalty rate), but not something likely to happen neat term.

    Disc: No position currently in the Mill issues.

  • Reply to

    Imagine if.....

    by don_t_panick Jan 9, 2015 9:30 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Jan 12, 2015 1:17 PM Flag

    I agree 100% Sam. It is foolish not to protect an industry this important to national security. Perhaps we would have avoided some costly mid-east wars if domestic production had been different.

  • Reply to

    Preferred Action Today

    by samtn12 Jan 9, 2015 4:16 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Jan 10, 2015 3:34 PM Flag

    Sam, I think that you were correct awhile back when you posted that the seller on the "D" was the NF buyer that took a portion of their payment in the "D". They were determined to be out of the "D" by the end of the year regardless of price. Now that they are out ,the issue rebounded even though fundamentals certainly have not improved for Mill since December. The Panick Report is tracking a few of these issue "preferred pair mispricings". If anyone wants to try 2 weeks of alerts at no cost, send yahoo mail to mrpanick.

  • Reply to

    Preferred Action Today

    by samtn12 Jan 9, 2015 4:16 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Jan 10, 2015 10:22 AM Flag

    Most of the time the common stock will rally first and the preferred issues will follow when a company has good news like positive well results. We also had buying in some other oversold energy preferred issues yesterday (despite oil trading lower). For example GDP-PD also rallied and the seller in ESCRP got taken out. The rally wasn't specific to the mill preferred issues, although they were among the best performers (perhaps because they were so oversold). The gap between mill-pd and mill-pc is starting to close as the Panick Report had been predicting. Another group of preferred issues with a weird "gap trade" is the SB pref issues. SB-PB is trading above par. SB-PC-PC is nearly identical and trading at 17.40. Another weird preferred stock "inefficiency" likely to correct that's being covered in the Panick Report.

  • don_t_panick by don_t_panick Jan 9, 2015 9:30 AM Flag

    Suppose the Japanese and the Koreans got together and decided that they were going to break Ford and GM by flooding the US market with low priced cars. They announced that as soon as they broke the US automakers using their govt deep pockets, they would then gouge the US consumer with high priced cars for many years to come. How fast would the president and congress move to protect the auto industry? Wouldn't even need to pass legislation. Just a couple of phone calls saying it would be under consideration would fix the problem rather quickly.

  • Reply to

    Hedges

    by samtn12 Jan 7, 2015 2:46 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Jan 8, 2015 4:39 PM Flag

    I agree that the banks are likely to keep working with them. The question is if they attach any conditions.

  • Reply to

    Hedges

    by samtn12 Jan 7, 2015 2:46 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Jan 8, 2015 5:59 AM Flag

    Just to be clear the Keybank borrowing base is now officially at 60 mil. However, I think it's already effectively at 40 mil based on the recent covenant changes to allow the Badami deal to close. Some of the analysts appear to still be using the 60 mil amount to calculate liquidity in their estimates - LOL. A "cut" to 40 mil would actually be maintaining the status quo.
    Meanwhile ESCR (like Mill they are highly leveraged, unlike Mill the ESCR common rallied big yesterday) just got their 50 mil borrowing base reaffirmed in December. So ESCRP has a very high probability to pay the next couple of dividends. The borrowing base is based on factors such as reserves, cash flow and of course commodity prices. The risk to Mill is that given weak production and oil prices, KeyBank could take a hard line with them. My guess is that KeyBank will be cooperative.
    For those trading the high yield preferred sector, send yahoo mail to mrpanick for latest copy of on the Panick Value Research Report. Lots of good opportunities in high yield lately in shipping & retail as well as energy.

  • Reply to

    Hedges

    by samtn12 Jan 7, 2015 2:46 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Jan 8, 2015 5:42 AM Flag

    I think it would make sense to sell some of the oil hedges since they are focusing on drilling for gas near term. The key event is really the upcoming January KeyBank loan redetermination. Geisler talked about selling hedges on the call, so he must think it's plausible. Mill is going to need to work with KeyBank and Apollo though. I took profits on my mill-pd trade a few days ago on the nice "January effect" pop. Waiting on the mill issues to see what happens with the KeyBank redetermination. I don't think many investors fully appreciate what a critical event that is for Mill. My feeling is that KeyBank will be cooperative and keep the borrowing base at around $40 mil (where they are currently drawn).
    We are getting some nice cold weather down here in Delaware. I'm trading ESCRP which is almost a pure natural gas play. Mill is trying to move in that direction. Unlike mill, they already got their borrowing base reaffirmed. Geisler made it perfectly clear on the conf call that he wants to pay the preferred dividend. He can monetize hedges and do it assuming that KeyBank cooperates. Something to be said though for trading issues where the borrowing base issue has already been resolved.

  • Reply to

    More company repurchase of shares...

    by stellarklhgold Dec 19, 2014 6:39 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Jan 6, 2015 5:46 PM Flag

    Maybe at some point.

  • Reply to

    walked away with a nice 20% gain today

    by mathewsjohn200 Dec 30, 2014 3:37 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Jan 5, 2015 8:54 PM Flag

    The FDIC will never go after PR. If DRL fails then their assets (including the claim against PR) will be assumed by another bank. You are essentially correct though. The claim won't go away and PR will eventually lose one way or another.

  • Reply to

    over producing oil in other countries are

    by fstout57 Dec 30, 2014 4:18 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 30, 2014 8:25 PM Flag

    Maybe the US should put a $10 tariff on imported oil. It would raise billions and protect the economy from dumping.

  • Reply to

    100 Mill-pc vs 100 Mill + 105 Mill-pd

    by don_t_panick Dec 29, 2014 6:06 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 30, 2014 3:23 PM Flag

    Thanks, I was using 125 shares before and switched to 100. Sorry for the inconsistency. 105 mill-pd + either 100 or 125 shares of Mill easily beats mill-pc. At current prices you could swap 100 mill-pc for 105 mill-pd + 125 mill so the conclusion is correct even if I was a bit inconsistent in the example. The bottom line is that anyone with mill-pc would be better off doing the swap.

  • Reply to

    100 Mill-pc vs 100 Mill + 105 Mill-pd

    by don_t_panick Dec 29, 2014 6:06 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 30, 2014 8:56 AM Flag

    Agree that I didn't consider the eventual switch to a floating rate issue. Also, there are a couple of other minor factors that could be considered. There may be minor covenant differences in how the issues are treated in a buyout at a low price where Mill (or the buyer) elects not to call the issues. Certainly haven't seen anything to justify the huge premium of the "C" to the "D". Anyone that owns the "C" and hasn't already swapped it for the "D" or perhaps the "D" plus some common (using my example) is leaving money on the table.

  • Reply to

    100 Mill-pc vs 100 Mill + 105 Mill-pd

    by don_t_panick Dec 29, 2014 6:06 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 29, 2014 6:29 PM Flag

    From the prospectus of the "D". It's equal in seniority to the "C":

    The Series D Preferred Stock will rank, with respect to rights to the payment of dividends and the distribution of assets upon our liquidation, dissolution or winding up:

    (A) senior to all classes or series of our common stock and to all other equity securities issued by us other than equity securities referred to in clauses (B) and (C) below;

    S-20





    TABLE OF CONTENTS

    (B) junior to the Series B Preferred Stock and all equity securities we issue which do not have dividend rights and which have terms specifically providing that those equity securities rank senior to the Series D Preferred Stock with respect to rights to the distribution of our assets upon liquidation, dissolution or winding up (please see the section entitled “— Voting Rights” below);

    (C) on parity with our Series C Preferred Stock and all other equity securities issued by us with terms specifically providing that those equity securities rank on parity with the Series D Preferred Stock with respect to rights to the distribution of our assets upon liquidation, dissolution or winding up; and

EMMS
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