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Emmis Communications Corp. Message Board

don_t_panick 533 posts  |  Last Activity: 12 hours ago Member since: Apr 4, 2001
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  • don_t_panick don_t_panick 12 hours ago Flag

    I didn't see any news other than the last press release. CBDE is the cheapest and least well known of the stocks in the solar sector. I don't think that the press release itself was that huge. However, folks doing "green" investing may have seen it and realized they had overlooked a nice little company.

  • don_t_panick don_t_panick 13 hours ago Flag

    I think they've already written down the turbines. If they actually deployed them they might have to mark them up. They aren't carrying natural gas in their reserve numbers because they can't sell it. There would be a huge markup to reserve value if PRE partners with them on a gas project.

  • Reply to

    Puerto Rico's economic activity hits 20-year low

    by red_tsar Sep 29, 2014 1:04 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick 14 hours ago Flag

    PR has a bloated public sector, a hostile attitude towards business (as DRL longs well know) and an entitlement culture of social dependence. It's a showcase for failed liberal policies. Bringing in some hedge funds and making the island more tourist friendly would go a long way.

  • Reply to

    2 bucks

    by s52teve Sep 9, 2014 3:23 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 30, 2014 12:47 AM Flag

    My average cost on TAOIF is around 2.20 not counting some trading profits from prior swings. Management burned investors with their infamous 5k boepd guidance and has now swung to the opposite extreme of giving overly conservative guidance. Current production was 2,000 boepd as per the last update and averaged 1,750 for the quarter. This shows production is trending higher and I think 2,300 is not unreasonable with some more decent shallow wells.

  • don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 30, 2014 12:40 AM Flag

    It's tough to get a good enterprise value. I came up with 25 mil assuming remaining preferred converts to common, but maybe I missed something at the project level. A lot of preferred stock and debt was already converted to common. In fact that's probably where the sellers are coming from. Debt and preferred holders that took common in various exchanges are sellers. Debt holders generally don't want equity, but took equity in swaps to get liquidity to cash out.

  • Reply to

    2 bucks

    by s52teve Sep 9, 2014 3:23 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 29, 2014 7:52 PM Flag

    That's a great entry point goldman. They do need to find a partner for the deep drilling, but are quite capable with the shallow drilling. Even with no contribution from deep wells they are guiding to end the fiscal year at 2,300 boepd. Figure netbacks around $60 and the operating cash flow will be running at about $ 50 mil annually. Market cap is down to 100 mil with 40 mil of cash which puts enterprise value at 60 mil. So by my math it's trading around 1.2X cash flow. Even a shrinking company in the phone book business like DXM is trading at enterprise value / cash flow around 4X. Tag is actually a growth company with great assets and I don't think management is nearly as clueless as some have suggested. If the company gets acquired by a bigger fish that's not going to happen at less than 4X cash flow.

  • don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 29, 2014 4:45 PM Flag

    The real story here is CBDE leveraging it's brand and know how developed for Australia to the US market. The residential solar penetration rate is much higher in Australia, subsidies for solar are better in the US and power costs are skyrocketing here.

  • Reply to

    Scenarios

    by jsalasrush Sep 29, 2014 11:02 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 29, 2014 12:56 PM Flag

    It won't be years. This process is on the fast track as litigation goes. Probably weeks or months with appeals at most. However, DRL has been shrinking the balance sheet which raises tier I. I expect we'll probably see an asset sale go through before the appeals process get concluded. It certainly wouldn't take years to sell profitable US mainland operations.

  • Reply to

    RU-9

    by berg.icy Sep 29, 2014 12:29 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 29, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    Mill is named after wrong brand of alcoholic beverage. It should be Gallo. They used to have a slogan (probably before your time) "we will sell no wine before it's time". I guess Mill will release no production update until they are sure they have a stabilized rate.

  • Reply to

    Yahoo: log stockpickinmoron's IP origins

    by louisiana_st_fraud Sep 28, 2014 11:24 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 29, 2014 12:48 PM Flag

    And what would you do if you track down the poster? If it was a crime to make stupid, half literate posts, then our prisons would be overflowing with yahoo "criminals".

  • Reply to

    Pacific Rubiales on Block Z-1

    by don_t_panick Sep 29, 2014 9:18 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 29, 2014 11:53 AM Flag

    I don't see them saving the best for last. The Albacora sidetrack is in progress now. The original well came on at over 2,000 bopd and the sidetrack is adding a deeper zone and could be even better. Should get results there on next update.

  • Pacific Rubiales is interested in commercializing this natural gas play with BPZ. It's located closer to shore than other nat gas finds at block Z-1. See page 13 of the PRE Sept presentation. The thinking had been that BPZ would dump the turbines at flea market value after trying for years to get this project going unsuccessfully. Would be very exciting if PRE decided to partner with BPZ on this project. Obviously they can get it done if that happens.

  • Reply to

    stockpickinmoron no longer exists

    by louisiana_st_fraud Sep 29, 2014 11:03 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 29, 2014 11:24 AM Flag

    There is just as much #$%$ coming from the short side. How about another 100 posts on the CH nonsense? How about all the claims that Mill was about to run out of cash before they closed the Keybank loan? Anyone who wants to post anonymously can buy a laptop for cash & not register it, setup a bogus yahoo ID and walk into their neighborhood Starbucks to use the free wifi.

  • Reply to

    Pacific Rubiales on Block Z-1

    by don_t_panick Sep 29, 2014 9:18 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 29, 2014 11:18 AM Flag

    Even a top tier operator like Pacific Rubiales is going to make adjustments and improvements as they proceed with a new drilling program. They made some mistakes on some of the initial wells and are correcting them on subsequent wells so that those are less likely to need intervention. Seemed to me that the CEO went out of his way to stress that point on the last presentation.

  • Reply to

    Net asset Value A.K.A Book value

    by traces64 Sep 26, 2014 2:53 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 29, 2014 11:09 AM Flag

    The BPOP preferred yields are really nothing special. I can get a higher yield for example by buying LTS-PA (a current Panick 10 pick) without the exposure to Puerto Rico. LTS is a nice growing profitable company with heavy insider buying and reasonable leverage with a stable business. With the BPOP preferred issues you get a lower yield and have more risk as BPOP could defer dividends if for example PR defaults creating a further downturn in real estate prices. I could easily name other issues with higher yields (FXENP for example) that I consider safer than the BPOP pref issues.

  • Reply to

    boyt's opinion on BPOP's ceo

    by red_tsar Sep 28, 2014 5:55 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 29, 2014 10:45 AM Flag

    The funny thing is that Doral probably didn't raise capital because they didn't want to dilute the shares. You're correct that in retrospect they should have done it. They would be in much better shape if they had done a preferred stock swap offer and sold shares a couple of years back. They were certainly blindsided by PR trying to cheat them on the tax agreement. Wakeman correctly limited new loans in PR and focused on growth in the mainland, but perhaps was not pessimistic enough on the PR problems. Doral would be in worse shape had Wakeman not made the correct strategic choice to focus capital on the mainland and limit PR loans to mostly those that they resell.

  • don_t_panick by don_t_panick Sep 29, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    Good PR for Australia. Now how about some news on the US and UK.

  • Reply to

    Pacific Rubiales on Block Z-1

    by don_t_panick Sep 29, 2014 9:18 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 29, 2014 9:30 AM Flag

    I also recommend page 14 of the PRE presentation (available on their web site IR section). PRE's history of actively using mergers and acquisitions to grow reserves is highlighted.

  • Reply to

    Pacific Rubiales on Block Z-1

    by don_t_panick Sep 29, 2014 9:18 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 29, 2014 9:24 AM Flag

    The PRE presentation is interesting as it shows that PRE has already booked additional reserves. Also PRE is saying the same things as BPZ. Would be of concern if they had differing plans for the block. PRE mentions the offshore gas play which is quite interesting. BPZ has unused turbines and has been trying to do a gas project for years. If PRE is in on the project, it might actually get done! Their presentation also talks about replacing declining production and reserves at other fields. Buying the rest of BPZ would be one way to do more of that.

  • Reply to

    Pacific Rubiales on Block Z-1

    by don_t_panick Sep 29, 2014 9:18 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 29, 2014 9:19 AM Flag

    PS - Board is much more pleasant with the bashers on ignore as they just post the same crap repeatedly and don't post any useful info.

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