I didn't see any news other than the last press release. CBDE is the cheapest and least well known of the stocks in the solar sector. I don't think that the press release itself was that huge. However, folks doing "green" investing may have seen it and realized they had overlooked a nice little company.
I think they've already written down the turbines. If they actually deployed them they might have to mark them up. They aren't carrying natural gas in their reserve numbers because they can't sell it. There would be a huge markup to reserve value if PRE partners with them on a gas project.
PR has a bloated public sector, a hostile attitude towards business (as DRL longs well know) and an entitlement culture of social dependence. It's a showcase for failed liberal policies. Bringing in some hedge funds and making the island more tourist friendly would go a long way.
My average cost on TAOIF is around 2.20 not counting some trading profits from prior swings. Management burned investors with their infamous 5k boepd guidance and has now swung to the opposite extreme of giving overly conservative guidance. Current production was 2,000 boepd as per the last update and averaged 1,750 for the quarter. This shows production is trending higher and I think 2,300 is not unreasonable with some more decent shallow wells.
It's tough to get a good enterprise value. I came up with 25 mil assuming remaining preferred converts to common, but maybe I missed something at the project level. A lot of preferred stock and debt was already converted to common. In fact that's probably where the sellers are coming from. Debt and preferred holders that took common in various exchanges are sellers. Debt holders generally don't want equity, but took equity in swaps to get liquidity to cash out.
That's a great entry point goldman. They do need to find a partner for the deep drilling, but are quite capable with the shallow drilling. Even with no contribution from deep wells they are guiding to end the fiscal year at 2,300 boepd. Figure netbacks around $60 and the operating cash flow will be running at about $ 50 mil annually. Market cap is down to 100 mil with 40 mil of cash which puts enterprise value at 60 mil. So by my math it's trading around 1.2X cash flow. Even a shrinking company in the phone book business like DXM is trading at enterprise value / cash flow around 4X. Tag is actually a growth company with great assets and I don't think management is nearly as clueless as some have suggested. If the company gets acquired by a bigger fish that's not going to happen at less than 4X cash flow.
The real story here is CBDE leveraging it's brand and know how developed for Australia to the US market. The residential solar penetration rate is much higher in Australia, subsidies for solar are better in the US and power costs are skyrocketing here.
It won't be years. This process is on the fast track as litigation goes. Probably weeks or months with appeals at most. However, DRL has been shrinking the balance sheet which raises tier I. I expect we'll probably see an asset sale go through before the appeals process get concluded. It certainly wouldn't take years to sell profitable US mainland operations.
Mill is named after wrong brand of alcoholic beverage. It should be Gallo. They used to have a slogan (probably before your time) "we will sell no wine before it's time". I guess Mill will release no production update until they are sure they have a stabilized rate.
And what would you do if you track down the poster? If it was a crime to make stupid, half literate posts, then our prisons would be overflowing with yahoo "criminals".
I don't see them saving the best for last. The Albacora sidetrack is in progress now. The original well came on at over 2,000 bopd and the sidetrack is adding a deeper zone and could be even better. Should get results there on next update.
Pacific Rubiales is interested in commercializing this natural gas play with BPZ. It's located closer to shore than other nat gas finds at block Z-1. See page 13 of the PRE Sept presentation. The thinking had been that BPZ would dump the turbines at flea market value after trying for years to get this project going unsuccessfully. Would be very exciting if PRE decided to partner with BPZ on this project. Obviously they can get it done if that happens.
There is just as much #$%$ coming from the short side. How about another 100 posts on the CH nonsense? How about all the claims that Mill was about to run out of cash before they closed the Keybank loan? Anyone who wants to post anonymously can buy a laptop for cash & not register it, setup a bogus yahoo ID and walk into their neighborhood Starbucks to use the free wifi.
Even a top tier operator like Pacific Rubiales is going to make adjustments and improvements as they proceed with a new drilling program. They made some mistakes on some of the initial wells and are correcting them on subsequent wells so that those are less likely to need intervention. Seemed to me that the CEO went out of his way to stress that point on the last presentation.
The BPOP preferred yields are really nothing special. I can get a higher yield for example by buying LTS-PA (a current Panick 10 pick) without the exposure to Puerto Rico. LTS is a nice growing profitable company with heavy insider buying and reasonable leverage with a stable business. With the BPOP preferred issues you get a lower yield and have more risk as BPOP could defer dividends if for example PR defaults creating a further downturn in real estate prices. I could easily name other issues with higher yields (FXENP for example) that I consider safer than the BPOP pref issues.
The funny thing is that Doral probably didn't raise capital because they didn't want to dilute the shares. You're correct that in retrospect they should have done it. They would be in much better shape if they had done a preferred stock swap offer and sold shares a couple of years back. They were certainly blindsided by PR trying to cheat them on the tax agreement. Wakeman correctly limited new loans in PR and focused on growth in the mainland, but perhaps was not pessimistic enough on the PR problems. Doral would be in worse shape had Wakeman not made the correct strategic choice to focus capital on the mainland and limit PR loans to mostly those that they resell.
I also recommend page 14 of the PRE presentation (available on their web site IR section). PRE's history of actively using mergers and acquisitions to grow reserves is highlighted.
The PRE presentation is interesting as it shows that PRE has already booked additional reserves. Also PRE is saying the same things as BPZ. Would be of concern if they had differing plans for the block. PRE mentions the offshore gas play which is quite interesting. BPZ has unused turbines and has been trying to do a gas project for years. If PRE is in on the project, it might actually get done! Their presentation also talks about replacing declining production and reserves at other fields. Buying the rest of BPZ would be one way to do more of that.
PS - Board is much more pleasant with the bashers on ignore as they just post the same crap repeatedly and don't post any useful info.