Hey at least Seeking Alpha pays me a penny every time someone reads an article. Wish yahoo had the same deal. Does add up to almost enough to cover my wife's Starbucks spending - LOL.
Drillers on the North slope subsidize Mill and Cook Inlet drillers to ensure affordable natural gas. Do you think voters care more about BP / XOM or affordable gas to heat their homes? I did some research after the Streets Sweeper hit article. MILL has plenty of issues to deal with. Losing that subsidy isn't one of them. The subsidy is popular. Santa Claus is very popular too - LOL.
Chances of Alaska getting rid of that credit are slim to none. It's apparently very popular to tax distant North slope oil production so that Joe Voter can pay affordable prices to heat his home.
Disc: no position in the MILL issues.
Yes and here the shorts go continually posting that this asset is of no possible value to Mill. The shorts also think that its a given that MILL won't pay the May dividend on account of the new loan covenants. Seems to me that there is a lot of uncertainty on both issues. The shorts are just way more comfortable in GEISLER-PD than they should be IMO. A lot of bad news is priced into 8.90. No doubt that SDRXP is much less risky and almost as cheap. This could be fun to watch though and I picked up a few shares of the D.
Thanks Sam. The Exxon Valdez spill was many years ago, but that cost Exxon so much in damages, years in court and public relations that this must still figure in their thinking. Seems to me that Exxon might prefer to give MILL some pocket change (to them anyway) in transport costs than to take on a potential liability.
If XOM is not concerned about potential liability from owning the asset and wants to own it, why would they wait until the last minute to exercise their option? They would have done it already. If MILL is so shaky, that option could end up in court for years as is the case for other contracts if MILL ended up in bankruptcy as you claim will happen before year's end. Seems like XOM should have already exercised the option and yet they haven't.
Thanks for digging up the numbers. Does seem like the bank debt is diverging from DXM and the unsecured bonds.
I wonder if XOM will bother to exercise the option. From their point of view it might be better to pay rental fees to MILL than exercise the option and assume potential liabilities of ownership. Big companies with deep pockets like XOM might have a different viewpoint than a micro cap like MILL.
SDRXP is going to pay in shares of SD as they just did for SDRXN. That one's virtually a sure thing to keep paying (Not even a cash cost to the company) and it's a par 100 at 40. Pretty good convert option as well. GDPAN paid the last one and raised 150 mil since then. Par 50 trading at 10 is 20 cents on the dollar (cheaper than MILL-PD by that measure, although coupon is lower).
MILL is in rougher shape. Preferred is a bet on Geisler saving face. Never heard a CEO pound the table as hard and often as he has about the preferred dividend. Could really run up if they pay since the shorts are betting so hard against it. Same thing could happen again for the same reason as last time.
I agree and picked up a few shares of MILL-PD as a short term trade. The odds of them paying the May dividend increased with the new CFO. The shorts are too heavy in the preferred shares and things could go either way. Could be a nasty squeeze if Geisler takes some of the abuse he has taken from the shorts here personally and pays the dividend.
GDPAN is still a much better value even with the nice run last week. The big move in ENRJ-P last week shows how much these issues can move when they surprise the market positively. SDRXP is a much better value at 40 cents on the dollar and the dividend being paid in shares of SD (which takes deferral off the table). Still it would be fun to see if Geisler is going to fight back here instead of just rolling over as the shorts expect.
If you read the actual filings (must be a lost art - LOL), they hired a new CFO. He was granted 300K shares at no cost. The grant vests 50% immediately and 50% in a year. It's good news that they hired a new CFO with some experience in doing midstream spinoffs. I wouldn't get too excited though about his routine grant of some free shares. Wouldn't call that an insider "buy".
Got rid of most of my bonds, bout still holding a few. No position in the common. What's interesting is that the bonds and DXM are down so much while the bank debt seems to be doing well. Last bank debt purchases were at around 83 cents on the dollar, which is higher than some past purchases if I recall correctly.
I think it would be in the best interests of Apollo and Keybank to facilitate an MLP spinoff. The lenders should be cooperative on that. Some portion would probably be used to pay down debt and some portion to improve liquidity. It's a win-win if they can pull it off.
Disc: Went long a few shares of MILL-PD (or is it GEISLER-PD). Great moves lately by GDPAN and ENRJ-P since my articles on those came out earlier this week. With those up, the relative valuation on MILL-PD is looking a bit better.
Par 25 preferred stocks trading near 10 (40 cents on the dollar) like MILL-PD are speculative. If they continue to pay the dividend they will go up. If they defer they will go down. Not all energy preferred stocks are that speculative. For example, BBEPP and CPE-PA are less risky and trade at only modest discounts to par.
Aside from the big gains on the MILL pref issues, there were some nice gains on other issues like GDPAN and ENRJ-P. Look for my GDPAN / GDP Bonds Seeking Alpha article out shortly. Article also coming out this week on ENRJ-P.
Disc: Long ENRJ-P, GDPAN and GDP bonds. No position in the MILL issues, but enjoying watching the shorts squirm while they pay huge borrow fees on MILL-PC and MILL-PD . Heard from someone who had MILL-PC in an IB account and was collecting the 40% fee for loaning out the shares. Could be a triple disaster for the shorts if Geisler lowers the boom and pays the divvy. Capital loss, huge borrow fee and pay the dividend. That's gotta hurt - LOL.
Gotta love the shorts giving my posts the thumbs down. They doth protest too much. Think I really hit a nerve - LOL.
Geisler already sounds a little #$%$ off on the conference calls. I just don't think that it's been wise for the shorts to keep taunting him here. The guy does have a few connections to pull off a midstream deal and they may have provided him with some extra motivation - LOL.
The first rue of shorting, is that you are not supposed to talk about shorting. No doubt the borrow rates for MILL-PD and MILL-PC must be astronomical. Shorts all piled into that trade and coming on the message boards to taunt Geisler. No position in the MILL pref issues. GDPAN, ENRJ-P and SDRXP are better values, but I sure am rooting for Geisler to lower the boom on a few obnoxious shorts (no need to even name them) here. Maybe Geisler will pay the divvy and then sell shares to the shorts when they cover at 15 after paying the divvy and the borrow rate. Would be fun to watch.
Apollo fouled up by insisting on overly restrictive covenants. It hurts Apollo's position when the MILL common and preferred get crushed (as they did) due to the capital raise covenant. Some of the MILL creditors would do well to realize that they would be better off if the company had some breathing room. There are still better alternatives out there than the MILL common or preferred issues, but betting against (and taunting) Geisler on MILL-PD might not have been the smartest move for the shorts. Fundamentals are bad, but Geisler could still dish out some serious punishment to the shorts here. Geisler has his personal reputation on the line here and based on his bio I think he may still have a few friends willing to participate in a midstream deal. No position, but I'm no fan of the shorts and really would enjoy watching Geisler dish out some serious punishment here.