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GMX Resources Inc. Message Board

don_t_panick 554 posts  |  Last Activity: 55 minutes ago Member since: Apr 4, 2001
  • Reply to

    Article out today

    by red_tsar Sep 27, 2014 8:34 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 28, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    It's neither bullish, nor bearish nor anything new. DRL has always wanted a settlement under the right terms. I doubt however that PR will offer a fair settlement until after they actually lose the case. Even then I have my doubts. A settlement is faster than the appeals process and time is critical for DRL given the intense regulatory scrutiny the bank is under.

  • Reply to

    Anyone watching LTS?

    by chip_jamerson Sep 26, 2014 2:34 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 28, 2014 11:24 AM Flag

    LTS keeps acquiring more small companies similar in size to NHLD. Mr. Market is saying that with today's increased regulatory burden, larger firms are better able to deal with it. LTS is also large enough to cross sell in-house financial products. Given that LTS keeps buying up all these companies similar to NHLD and actually partners with NHLD on many deals, it's inconceivable that LTS didn't try to buy NHLD. Management needs to be more up front about offer terms they have received.

  • Reply to

    Net asset Value A.K.A Book value

    by traces64 Sep 26, 2014 2:53 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 28, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    bmy, the BPOP issues are fine if you want an 8% yield. I can think of better ways to get a higher yield. I do the Panick Value Research Report with a list of such issues, yahoo mail mrpanick for a current copy with my picks in the sector. I stopped even covering the BPOP preferred issues on the watch list due to increased valuation. There is more potential risk and also more potential reward on the DRL preferred issues which are all trading under 25 cents on the dollar.

  • Reply to

    Net asset Value A.K.A Book value

    by traces64 Sep 26, 2014 2:53 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 27, 2014 9:11 PM Flag

    fp, DORLL is a par 250 issue. It's also the only one of the DRL preferred issues that is cumulative and is trading (as of today, from my excel model) with 66.21 in deferred dividends. DORLL would do very well if DRL was acquired by a stronger bank that paid back the deferred dividends. The conversion option is "busted" however and should be ignored. You need to adjust the conversion for multiple reverse splits.
    I think you're on the right track however in looking for an eventual swap that valued the pref issues at about 50 cents on the dollar in common stock. Most preferred holders are not going to take common for less than about that and the bank would do very well at that level.

  • Reply to

    Will someone explain to me

    by roquew Sep 27, 2014 9:14 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 27, 2014 2:22 PM Flag

    Not sure I'd call it a finder's fee Rocky. Seems to involve some other services related to the potential deal.

  • Reply to

    Net asset Value A.K.A Book value

    by traces64 Sep 26, 2014 2:53 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 27, 2014 10:56 AM Flag

    Your numbers look about right. Haven't checked them lately. Note that you need to count the substantial deferred and unpaid dividends on DORLL when looking at the book value of the preferred issues. So what happens to the book value of the bank holding company when most preferred stock agrees to swap for common? Even at 50 cents on the dollar it's an easy way for the bank to generate a big gain and increase book value.

  • Reply to

    How dumb is boyt?

    by red_tsar Sep 26, 2014 6:09 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 27, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    The waiting time is probably the same for the preferred and common. The most likely way that dividends will be paid would be due to a capital raise (including pref swap offer for common) or if the bank gets acquired. Let's say that Wells Fargo or BPOP has a momentary lapse of reason and decides to acquire what's left of DRL (perhaps after legal issues are settled and NPA's sold). You could look at other distressed bank sales like Countrywide to BAC that took place without an outright bank failure. The common holders got a small amount in the distressed sales. The Countrywide preferred issues got assumed by BAC and became BAC preferred issues. They resumed dividends (many still trade) and went to par. Same with all the old Merril Lynch preferred issues. In fact you can see a whole list of these issues (which still trade today) in Quantumonline if you look at related issues for BAC.

  • Reply to

    How dumb is boyt?

    by red_tsar Sep 26, 2014 6:09 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 27, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    Distressed banks usually take a much faster route. They offer preferred holders common stock on favorable terms to get most of them to take common. With the overhang of the preferred gone, they sell more common. Sometimes the above is combined. New investors agree to buy common only if 2/3 of preferred agree to take common. The waiting time is not "forever". The problem is more one of dilution than a waiting time of "forever".

  • Reply to

    All this news sounds good but

    by litleelvis Sep 23, 2014 10:52 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 27, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    Maybe Obama will visit one of their projects. Seems to have worked for SLTD - LOL.

  • don_t_panick by don_t_panick Sep 27, 2014 10:17 AM Flag

    Q3 was a fairly quiet quarter for drilling, but things are picking up a lot in the next couple of quarters. They are participating in 6 or 7 wells due to get completed in Q4 and Q1.

  • Reply to

    CDB-Westinghouse market launch

    by soundsgood02 Sep 10, 2014 3:40 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 26, 2014 6:50 PM Flag

    Yes, the very light volume tells the story there. Company is in "stealth mode". They have deployed the "Cone of Silence".

  • Reply to

    Key Capital Claims PTA allegedly owned assets

    by umbisam Sep 25, 2014 12:56 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 26, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    Suroco had interests in a few blocks. P7 is only one of them and I doubt the legal fishing expedition is going anywhere. There is virtually no company today that is free from dubious lawsuits. Usually they drag on for years and amount to very little other than paychecks for the lawyers or small sums covered by insurance

  • Reply to

    CDB-Westinghouse market launch

    by soundsgood02 Sep 10, 2014 3:40 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 26, 2014 4:16 PM Flag

    Could be they are doing a "soft" launch. Start off slowly and get the bugs worked out of the process before doing a lot of publicity.

  • Reply to

    Earthquake today

    by roquew Sep 25, 2014 7:44 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 26, 2014 11:33 AM Flag

    I assume that they had no damage, although it would be sporting of the company to put out a press release to that effect.

  • Reply to

    Summer & Winter blackout risk

    by don_t_panick Sep 25, 2014 7:18 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 26, 2014 11:30 AM Flag

    True - LOL. Maybe there is something in the works with the preferred stock. That's about the only reason I can think of for this apparent "quiet period".

  • Reply to

    Key Capital Claims PTA allegedly owned assets

    by umbisam Sep 25, 2014 12:56 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 25, 2014 10:40 PM Flag

    PTA responded that the allegations were without merit. Presumably PTA and their partner were aware of this issue when they farmed into the block. The case will probably drag on in court for years and get settled for a fraction of the amount claimed. PTA has a dozen blocks. Suroco paid only a few million to farm into the block in question. This is an exploration stage block with no current production.
    So you claim that a dubious claim that applies to no current production and only 1 of a dozen blocks is worth 2/3 of the company. I say you are full of #$%$.

  • Reply to

    For those who...

    by ryan.adhari Sep 25, 2014 6:30 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 25, 2014 8:08 PM Flag

    Oil is down and the production ramp up stalled at 2,500 bopd because they had problems with some wells that they had to address. That set them back a couple of quarters. The good news is that we should see a resumption of production growth in Q4. I recommend listening to the IPAA webcast which is linked from their web site. The stock trades on production. If you believe production will stay stalled at 2,500 bopd sell it. If you believe Q4 production is headed quickly higher (as I do) then buy it. Note that A-18D which had been a 2,000 bopd well (1,000 bopd net) comes back online in early Oct when the sidetrack is due to be completed.

  • Reply to

    The Petroamerica Seeking Alpha article.

    by martha.varias Sep 16, 2014 2:48 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 25, 2014 7:38 PM Flag

    Seems to have been due mostly due to the temporary shut-in of production in Putamayo (see today's news release) due to farmer roadblocks. Looks like they have a settlement with the farmers and are in process of restoring production.

  • Reply to

    UK grid is even worse

    by don_t_panick Sep 25, 2014 7:25 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Sep 25, 2014 7:27 PM Flag

    Good move by CBDE to focus on UK and US markets. Like their "energy bond" financing in the UK. The UK actually has higher electric rates and worse grid problem than the US. Selling solar panels there should be like catching fish in a barrel.

  • don_t_panick by don_t_panick Sep 25, 2014 7:25 PM Flag

    Recent article:

    Mark Stephenson, policy and research manager for the North East Chamber of Commerce (NECC), said: “If we have a bad winter this year, as we did in 2010, then the most optimistic position is that we will have brownouts.

    “The most likely scenario is we will be facing blackouts. It’s a frightening situation.

    “The spare capacity margin is down to 5%, which is the lowest level for 20 years, and with a further 20% of existing capacity coming offline before any meaningful new base-load capacity is built, this a major concern for the UK.”

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