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AmeriGas Partners LP Message Board

don_t_panick 9103 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Apr 4, 2001
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  • don_t_panick don_t_panick 5 hours ago Flag

    If the FBI did such a high profile raid of a public company to investigate their vendors, it seems like a terrible abuse of power to me. Would they have raised FBP or BPOP like that for questions on their vendors?

  • Reply to

    Relying on miracles

    by jeffsedgh Dec 24, 2014 12:45 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 26, 2014 8:49 PM Flag

    I have a degree in physics and am very familiar with the Big Bang theory. While I'm also an atheist, the bottom line is that we really have no idea at this point what "caused" the big bang to happen.

  • Reply to

    Relying on miracles

    by jeffsedgh Dec 24, 2014 12:45 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 26, 2014 4:19 PM Flag

    Johara, I hate to tell you this but science pretty much also says that things were magically poofed into existence. It's called the "Big Bang Theory".

  • Reply to

    Money laundering

    by marcus20433 Dec 23, 2014 9:42 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 26, 2014 5:58 AM Flag

    Good analysis. Think it's money laundering by a customer. I suspect that this was politically motivated. Unless DRL was aware of it, seems like overkill. Maybe politically motivated abuse.

  • Reply to

    Relying on miracles

    by jeffsedgh Dec 24, 2014 12:45 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 25, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    Jeff,

    Happy holidays and while I am an atheist, I hope you and the other longs get a miracle or at least a decent break. People may disagree, but I think Doral has taken a lot of abuse from Puerto Rico and the regulators. Maybe longs should pray to the bureaucrats, regulators and politicians to stop abusing their power. As I see it:

    - The FBI
    Probably wanted info on a customer transaction. I suspect we will eventually find that their raid was an abuse of power and they could have just asked for the info. It's not possible for a bank to police the behavior of every customer all the time.

    - Puerto Rico
    I am appalled at the continued bad behavior of Puerto Rico and anyone who follows this stock should not be apologizing for them or worse blaming DRL. PR broke a contract, has lost every court battle, still refuses to pay and has abused their govt platform to smear the bank and their shareholders in the press.

    - The FDIC
    I would bet that DRL has been trying to close the US mainland asset sale. I would bet that the regulators (which should encourage it) have been holding up the critical sale by refusing to grant the buyer cross lien waivers to ensure it's a clean transaction. Unfortunately I predicted this awhile back based on how I've seen the regulatory trolls behave in similar situations (Capitol Bancorp for example). While holding up the asset sale, you can be sure that the regulators are leaning so hard on every aspect of the bank's business that it is compounding their problems.

  • Reply to

    GREAT news, for those who know the basics

    by itsanhol Dec 10, 2014 4:39 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 24, 2014 9:38 PM Flag

    If they do exit Q4 with 7,500 boepd and netbacks of $25 then cash flow is going to be running at an annual rate of almost $70 mil. Current enterprise value is about 105 mil. So in round numbers it's trading around 1.5X cash flow. I think they'll do a lot better than 7,500 boepd in 2015 and the $25 netback is also very conservative if oil rebounds a bit in 2015 and they lower transpirations costs by shipping some oil to Ecuador (as Vetra is now doing) from PUT.

  • Reply to

    For those who were calculating...

    by creedster_99 Dec 23, 2014 11:24 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 24, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    Sam, are you sure there is a "stand down" on RU? I think they are still trying to salvage something from RU9 and then do shorter wells and reworks closer to the platform. RU12 is off the schedule, but a stand down would mean no activity there.

  • Reply to

    looking for an honest response

    by jeffsedgh Dec 9, 2014 1:25 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 23, 2014 7:37 PM Flag

    Red, I'm a specialist at the preferred issues and caught the last big rally there. As for the common, I did make money on the last trade. Went long right after you posted the Caribbean News article on the asset sale and closed the trade a few days ahead of the Q3 Call Report. Did get that one right. Didn't trade it at $2 and congrats to you for timing that one.

  • Reply to

    For those who were calculating...

    by creedster_99 Dec 23, 2014 11:24 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 23, 2014 5:15 PM Flag

    I agree with you PA. There is still a "path to success" for Mill. It's a narrow one and doesn't include any more major foul-ups, but Geisler and his team must think they can pull it off.

  • Reply to

    looking for an honest response

    by jeffsedgh Dec 9, 2014 1:25 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 23, 2014 5:07 PM Flag

    I doubt it's related to the executive murder. That case got thrown out of court. My guess is that the FBI raided Doral on account of customer transactions. Not sure if that's any better for the bank though. Anyway, I don't think there is enough info to speculate on any of the DRL issues at this point. Just too much uncertainty and risk. Too little information about what's happening with asset sales, the PR tax case or the regulators. This latest issue adds just one more huge unknown. No thanks.

  • Reply to

    FBI

    by rjv1954 Dec 23, 2014 11:23 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 23, 2014 2:34 PM Flag

    I wouldn't underestimate the power of politicians making suggestions. The Tea party and many groups were targeted by the IRS due to political motivations. That's changed my thinking on how independent these groups are.

    I've been negative on the DRL issues since taking profits on the last trade awhile back. I don't need to wake up and smell the coffee.

  • Reply to

    FBI

    by rjv1954 Dec 23, 2014 11:23 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 23, 2014 11:32 AM Flag

    I wonder if the Puerto Rico's smear campaign against DRL helped motivate this? If the FBI starts collecting computers, do they need those to operate? Still watching the DRL issues for a positive catalyst to trade them. Sorry to say that it's not looking good. Bank needs to get out a statement soon or they could get a "run on the bank" to complicate things further.

  • Reply to

    Mill-pd

    by don_t_panick Dec 16, 2014 12:46 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 22, 2014 2:51 PM Flag

    They are not going to sell preferred stock at 10. If they restore confidence by hitting a couple of wells and paying the next couple of pref dividends they will be in a better position to sell some pref stock 6 months from now when the pref is trading at much higher levels.

  • Reply to

    sale

    by bobby57_2001 Dec 20, 2014 8:22 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 21, 2014 5:02 PM Flag

    If they sell mainland assets the DRL issues will trade higher. They would make a profit which adds to capital. They would shrink the balance sheet, so they would have more capital for less assets raising tier I capital levels. They would take the threat of seizure off the table and give themselves more time to collect from PR. The problem is that a sale would be complex and we haven't heard anything in a couple of months. Regulators would need for example to provide cross lien waivers to the buyer to ensure that the FDIC can't hold them responsible for other parts of Doral Bank that are not sold.

  • Reply to

    More company repurchase of shares...

    by stellarklhgold Dec 19, 2014 6:39 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 21, 2014 12:43 PM Flag

    With their 350 boepd production at Cheal North, they probably have close to 100K per week cash coming in. Very low expenses as a non-operated company. NIS is carrying them in Romania. Their share of the Cheal E-2 rework will only cost them about 250K. Figure they spend 1 mil on their share of another Cheal North well later this year. No East Coast expenses now that we are out of that project. Could get more cash flow if the Cheal South well gets connected later this year or if E2 produces anything. 8 mil in cash on the balance sheet now and even with some more buybacks, I think we'll end 2015 with around 10 mil in cash.

  • Reply to

    Mill-pd

    by don_t_panick Dec 16, 2014 12:46 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 19, 2014 9:45 PM Flag

    The volume on the "D" has been much higher than the "C" lately. The "D" traded almost 10X as much today. The trading relationship between the issues is temporarily skewed by a big seller that happens to own the "D". Expect that the gap will close over time.

  • Reply to

    Geisler purchased 10,500 Seriers C Preferred

    by pa1702 Dec 17, 2014 7:22 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 19, 2014 5:01 PM Flag

    The determination to keep paying the preferred dividend counts for something. The worst thing you can get as a yield investor is a company that has the ability to pay and decides they would rather not do it.

  • Reply to

    Going sub $1.00?

    by goldmanpillageandsack Dec 14, 2014 12:29 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 18, 2014 4:45 PM Flag

    I guess anyone trading oil stocks these days needs a psychic or something to know what these 3rd world sheiks and tin pot dictators are thinking.

  • Reply to

    Geisler purchased 10,500 Seriers C Preferred

    by pa1702 Dec 17, 2014 7:22 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 18, 2014 3:18 PM Flag

    He talked about cash flow, joint ventures, Alaska tax credits, possible rig sales and possible monetization of hedges. Drilling focused on cash flow rather than reserves. Restored some production at low cost from WMRU-8. Hopefully they can get something from RU-9.
    They have to execute very well operationally. Company no longer has much margin for error.

  • Reply to

    The perferred shares started selling off today

    by fp718591 Dec 15, 2014 5:19 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 18, 2014 10:23 AM Flag

    No I rarely short issues and gave the alert to subscribers in real time. DRL came out with the 8k Friday night and I sent out the analysis Friday night. Even if I wanted to short the DRL preferred issues it would be difficult to do - at least with my broker. Besides, if people are paying for the service, I think it's only fair to give them the alert in real time rather than 3 days later on Monday after the open.

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