The 40% number you are using is an over-simplification that may not be correct. I checked one of the presentations and they cited a range of 35% - 60%. This is complex stuff, but I would guess that parts of Sword (the failed effort part that needed to be sidetracked) got the 60% rate.
I enjoy your posts which are generally very well informed. However, in this case you threw out a very high and I believe incorrect cost estimate for Sword based on a doubly faulty calculation. The whole tax credit was not for Sword and the 40% rate estimate you used may mot be correct in this particular case.
I read the call transcript as saying that the $22 mil tax credit was for Sword and other stuff - not just Sword alone. It says "primarily" which could mean 2/3 rather than 100% as you've interpreted it.
"In addition to the cash collections, we filed a $22 million application credit primarily related to work completed on unused Sword #1 well".
The Alaska tax credits are a complex formula. Since they sidetracked Sword, the part that failed might be reimbursed at a different rate by Alaska than the part that was ultimately successful? I went through the call transcript a couple of times and couldn't recreate your calculation that they spent 55 mil on Sword. I was critical of the CFO initially, but thought he did a very credible job on the presentation.
They probably will end calendar 2014 around 10K boepd with continued success from the WMRU wells which are being cranked out every 2 months and even limited success at the Platform and other drilling. Don't hold your breath waiting for $3.
The WMRU wells are currently the highest paybacks. They mentioned 13 mil for a recent well that should do at least 500+ bopd and take 2 months to drill.
I wish that after RU9 they would do a few more of those quick, cheap easy wells closer to the platform.
Guidance slipped to include the acquisition, but from the call they did re-affirm that guidance (which is consistent with recent presentations). The WMRU wells and Sword are driving the increases. Things slower at the platform. After RU-9 maybe they will go back to drilling some of those quick, easy, cheap wells with high IRR's closer to the platform. RU9 is about maximizing reserves. They are going to be much higher than 6K by December just from the WMRU wells coming online.
If they had a merger / buyout I don't think they'd be negotiating with senior lenders. It's likely that they are negotiating terms for bankruptcy DIP financing. Alternately they could give the debt holders a slug of equity in exchange for a lifeline, but that's looking less likely as this drags on. Most corporate management would prefer to keep control rather than sell - even if it means bankruptcy.
Good luck, but not looking good.
Disc: No position in the common or preferred.
I did catch that Sam and was a buyer in after-market yesterday and pre-market today at 6.30. You have posted before about watching for this issue and you were correct. The "miss" on the "bad" headline number was due to a 20%+ revenue swing from fiscal Q3 to fiscal Q4 due to this issue. The sellers on the headline number didn't have a clue.
Good point. I believe that Rocky deserves a lot of credit and I would also agree with you that management deserves credit for belatedly making changes that were needed.
They got Board changes (5 out of 7 now independent) and the comp package was killed. DV off the Board. It's over. Hope they don't embarrass themselves by being sore winters and keeping up the proxy fight. No longer much reason to vote for them.
A tanker pickup at the end of the quarter could have been delayed due to weather or some issue like that. I wouldn't read any motivation into the inventory buildup. Less revenue in Q3. More revenues in Q4. It's a wash anyway.
I think the weakness has to do with the sector being out of favor. Also probably some momentum players, warrant holders and technical analysts are selling.
When the company did the 35 mil Canadian 2015 note offering a couple of years back they gave free warrants at 20 cents to the buyers to sweeten the deal. There are still about 20 mil of those 20 cent 2015 warrants left, but the number has been dropping. Debt holders usually don't like to own equities. I think they are exercising the warrants (even though they have until 2015) and selling the stock to lock in their profits.
Wherever the shares are coming from, I don't think the selling is related to fundamentals. It's don't think anyone could really be doing serious fundamental analysis and conclude that PTAXF is overpriced at 3X earnings.
Couple of intelligent people on the board? Yes, and you're not one of them. No intelligent person would be exposed by themselves as lying about their position. Intelligent posters don't claim decline rates that contradicted the actual data being reported. Intelligent posters don't claim a company with debt / fiscal 2015 cash flow of well under 2X is headed for bankruptcy. Intelligent posters don't claim that they short a stock and bash it all days for "moral" reasons. Compared to your analysis, the misleading drivel from Street Sweeper looks like pearls of wisdom.
No actually my cost basis is below the current price. Mill was a top pick in my newsletter at 3.60 and dropped at 8.20. Added it back as a pick at 6.50. Also had a double on the call options, gains on mill-pc and mill-pd. Bashing a stock shorted by an immediate family member following your guidance is the same as being a short.
Mill and the related plays have been my best trading stock over the past year. Numerous subscribers to the Panick Rep have done extremely following the calls. In any case I wouldn't get out the pom, poms just yet if I was you on the 12 cent selloff today.
Just to be clear, if I bought Mill in my daughter's college fund, I'd describe myself as a long. What a freakin liar you are. For you to talk about anyone else's morality is a joke.
You are really a #$%$ Verado. First you claim not to be a short. When that lie gets exposed you admit to being a short and claim that it's not about money - but morality. Guess you are really doing "god's work" camped out here cheering for a 2% intraday decline with oil trading lower - LMAO.