For example, ICH is listed on NYSE MKT. Compare the 2 companies. NHLD has a higher market cap, better profitability, higher revenues, a higher public float and a better balance sheet. Management didn't do a very good job of explaining why a reverse split is in shareholder interests in the proxy. They should have presented it properly as intended to increase shareholder value by moving off the bulletin board.
Stock would do well is they reverse split it and moved if off the bulletin board to nasdaq small cap. In terms of revenues, profits, public float, SEC filings and balance sheet I think NHLD should be ready to step up to a real exchange. Shareholders should support a reverse split intended for that purpose.
I think you left out Mill-pd. Pref stock was around 110 mil (haven't updated my numbers from the last report). I think the WMRU wells are what's picking up the slack and hopefully some good results from RU9 and the subsequent offshore wells in 2014.
I think Mill looks ok. BPZ has been on a huge run (posted a heads up here when they hit that huge well at Alabacore). PTAXF looks insanely cheap. I am becoming a big fan of the New Zealand microcap plays (Tag Oil and East West Petroleum).
I don't disagree with you on Sword, although I think they will end up with a decent return on it with the tax credits. Subsequent wells should be cheaper. The WMRU wells look good. If memory serves me those are costing under 15 mil each currently, with expected production around 500 boepd and drilling times of 2 months. Those are nice wells WMRU may be the major driver of production growth in 2014.
Perhaps after RU9, they will drill a few more cheap, quick, high return wells closer to the platform.
If Hillary takes over where Obummer leaves off, a lot of people could be hitting the exits. Could get crowded down there.
Trust preferred issues are a hybrid issue. The bank pays interest to the trust that holds the bonds. The trust then passes through the interest as dividends to shareholders. For US tax purposes they are taxed as interest even though they are called dividends. I thought the press release was ok given the above.
The 40% number you are using is an over-simplification that may not be correct. I checked one of the presentations and they cited a range of 35% - 60%. This is complex stuff, but I would guess that parts of Sword (the failed effort part that needed to be sidetracked) got the 60% rate.
I enjoy your posts which are generally very well informed. However, in this case you threw out a very high and I believe incorrect cost estimate for Sword based on a doubly faulty calculation. The whole tax credit was not for Sword and the 40% rate estimate you used may mot be correct in this particular case.
I read the call transcript as saying that the $22 mil tax credit was for Sword and other stuff - not just Sword alone. It says "primarily" which could mean 2/3 rather than 100% as you've interpreted it.
"In addition to the cash collections, we filed a $22 million application credit primarily related to work completed on unused Sword #1 well".
The Alaska tax credits are a complex formula. Since they sidetracked Sword, the part that failed might be reimbursed at a different rate by Alaska than the part that was ultimately successful? I went through the call transcript a couple of times and couldn't recreate your calculation that they spent 55 mil on Sword. I was critical of the CFO initially, but thought he did a very credible job on the presentation.
They probably will end calendar 2014 around 10K boepd with continued success from the WMRU wells which are being cranked out every 2 months and even limited success at the Platform and other drilling. Don't hold your breath waiting for $3.
The WMRU wells are currently the highest paybacks. They mentioned 13 mil for a recent well that should do at least 500+ bopd and take 2 months to drill.
I wish that after RU9 they would do a few more of those quick, cheap easy wells closer to the platform.
Guidance slipped to include the acquisition, but from the call they did re-affirm that guidance (which is consistent with recent presentations). The WMRU wells and Sword are driving the increases. Things slower at the platform. After RU-9 maybe they will go back to drilling some of those quick, easy, cheap wells with high IRR's closer to the platform. RU9 is about maximizing reserves. They are going to be much higher than 6K by December just from the WMRU wells coming online.
If they had a merger / buyout I don't think they'd be negotiating with senior lenders. It's likely that they are negotiating terms for bankruptcy DIP financing. Alternately they could give the debt holders a slug of equity in exchange for a lifeline, but that's looking less likely as this drags on. Most corporate management would prefer to keep control rather than sell - even if it means bankruptcy.
Good luck, but not looking good.
Disc: No position in the common or preferred.
I did catch that Sam and was a buyer in after-market yesterday and pre-market today at 6.30. You have posted before about watching for this issue and you were correct. The "miss" on the "bad" headline number was due to a 20%+ revenue swing from fiscal Q3 to fiscal Q4 due to this issue. The sellers on the headline number didn't have a clue.
Good point. I believe that Rocky deserves a lot of credit and I would also agree with you that management deserves credit for belatedly making changes that were needed.
They got Board changes (5 out of 7 now independent) and the comp package was killed. DV off the Board. It's over. Hope they don't embarrass themselves by being sore winters and keeping up the proxy fight. No longer much reason to vote for them.