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AmeriGas Partners LP Message Board

don_t_panick 394 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 35 minutes ago Member since: Apr 4, 2001
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  • don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 9, 2014 8:50 PM Flag

    Geisler can burn the shorts if he does what we was brought in to do. He has fixed the strategy to focus on cash flow which is good and long overdue. What about the other stuff? Anything in the works on joint ventures, monetization of midstream assets, increased access to capital or finding some third party customer for Mill facilities? He's got a lot of other fires to put out since he took over, but would be nic to see progress on the strategic stuff.

  • Reply to

    Why Scott's Margin Call is Not Over - The Numbers

    by berg.icy Dec 9, 2014 1:38 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 9, 2014 5:05 PM Flag

    Mill has been under $3 for more than a week and is more than 10% off it's lows. It's no longer marginable and the energy sector rebounded. Scott's margin call is over and I think we're done with margin call selling in general. The big question now is how will they do tomorrow with the drilling update? RU9 especially. Guess I was too chicken to trade it today without getting a drilling update first.

    Disc: No position in Mill common or preferred issues.

  • Reply to

    Heard some new forms just filed

    by roquew Dec 8, 2014 7:12 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 8, 2014 10:23 PM Flag

    That's a good point Rocky. Could be a technical violation of the Apollo agreement. Don't think Apollo will make an issue out of it though.

  • don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 8, 2014 1:45 PM Flag

    Well I guess you could call the 900 mil in cash that SD has a "survivability option" along with about the same available on the credit line and no near term debt maturities. How does mill-pc compete when you can buy a preferred from that type of company for about the same price?
    I traded the istar issues along with all the financial stuff post financial crisis. Looks like we've got an energy sector high yield "financial crisis". Many of the financials were not hedged though going into the crisis and were also much more leveraged than some of the energy companies that have been taken down.

  • don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 8, 2014 11:03 AM Flag

    Some people don't like when I talk about other issues here, but the fact is that you've got to look at relative valuations. How are you going to say it's a buy without comparing it to other opportunities? Mill-pc / mill-pd are better issues at 12.50 then 20. How does the valuation stack up against SDRXP though? That's a par 100 convertible trading at 53, so the price is not far from where the mill pref issues are trading.
    Sure SD is a shale play but they have some very low cost shale. Also get revenues from nat gas and midstream as well as oil. Which company was better prepared to deal with a downturn in prices. SD already sold some assets and has close to 2 bil in liquidity. Makes it tough to jump on the mill preferred issues when they are facing competition like that at about the same price.

  • Reply to

    This is YES close to bankruptcy

    by umbisam Dec 5, 2014 11:43 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 7, 2014 11:06 PM Flag

    You must be delusional. Cash is increasing and they have more cash than debt. Production is increasing. and will end the year at 7,400 boepd. They have very low cost production. Plenty of cash for capex. Oh and by the way, our partner Vetra is now trucking oil from PUT to the OCP pipeline in Ecuador. PTA will soon be participating in that. Trucking costs there are about $15 / barrel and cost drop to $5.

  • don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 7, 2014 9:31 PM Flag

    That a great analogy Priviet. This looks like the energy sector "financial crisis". We may not be quite done with the panic selling yet though. After the panic selling ended, it was best to first buy GS, BAC (or their debt) and then get around to buying AIG (or their preferred issues) awhile later after the stronger issues had started to move. Seems too early to buy mill-pc / mill-pd for those 2 reasons. Other preferred issues to buy first and may be too soon to go in too heavy on those.

  • Reply to

    Has anybody checked....?

    by look2truth Dec 7, 2014 10:55 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 7, 2014 8:25 PM Flag

    Looks like "Verado The Liar" is posting in overdrive. You talk about Mill going to $1, but the posting activity suggests you sure are looking hard to cover Monday ahead of earnings. Are you perhaps concerned that the stock might rally on the GAAP headline number which would include some big mark to market gains from hedging?

    Disc: No position in common or preferred currently.

  • Reply to

    Has anybody checked....?

    by look2truth Dec 7, 2014 10:55 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 7, 2014 6:09 PM Flag

    I read the form 4 filing. It would be pretty unusual to disclose what broker his shares were held with and it doesn't. He sold 500K shares and still owns about 4 mil (some of those may be out of the money options) per the filing.

  • don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 7, 2014 1:09 PM Flag

    They don't call you "Verado the Liar" for nothing. I last recommended a buy on mill-pc at 17.76 on 10/14 and recommended selling it 3 days later at 22.50. I have not bought or recommended the mill preferred issues since then. I've consistently told people there were better issues. In fact, I still don't have the mill preferred issues as a pick even on the recent drop to 13. Still other stuff I like more.
    I did correctly say that Mill was down in part due to a margin call. You denied the obvious. I said the rally in the mill preferred issues positive for the common to bounce. It was. The mill common had a bounce and I sold it because the sector was selling off hard. Why don't you go back to distorting Mill production figures now instead of trying to distort my position on the mill preferred issues.

  • Reply to

    Leaked Waitangi Info

    by kflowers1012 Sep 19, 2014 8:46 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 6, 2014 8:24 AM Flag

    I agree with you. They should have focused more drilling on Cheal. Maybe they had reasons (holding leases), but it was ridiculous that there was not more focus on Cheal when there are such easy pickings there.

  • Reply to

    Reality check

    by goldmanpillageandsack Oct 7, 2014 7:19 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 6, 2014 8:22 AM Flag

    They last reported a production rate of 1,990 boepd. Their guidance for March is 2,300 boepd. They have a few wells coming online before then including Cheal E-6 (next week or so), Cheal E-7 (now being drilled), Cheal E-8 and the Cheal E-2 rework. The problem is that the sector stinks, oil is down and tax loss selling. They will easily beat their 2,300 boepd guidance for March. It's not the results killing them.

  • Reply to

    The C&D Preferreds are getting killed once again

    by pa1702 Dec 5, 2014 10:29 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 5, 2014 10:32 PM Flag

    Sam, so RU3 & RU4 are really reworks. Should be faster, cheaper and less potential complications to drill than new wells. NF was actually a good deal if they can swap gas from there so that RU drilling can focus on oil.

  • Reply to

    The C&D Preferreds are getting killed once again

    by pa1702 Dec 5, 2014 10:29 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 5, 2014 9:54 PM Flag

    PA, one of the first changes I noticed to the drilling scheduled in the corporate presentation was that RU3 & RU4 were moved ahead of RU12. That happened quickly when Geisler took over. Many longs didn't notice the change, which I thought was an important and overdue strategic shift. Right until Geisler took over, they were still talking about doing Ru12 next and why it was going to be easier than RU9. I believe that as soon as rig finishes trying to fix Ru9, they will do RU3 and RU4. My guess is that they could do both in about 3 months. The bullish argument for the mill common and pref issues is that they get RU3, RU4 and WMRU-8 done with good results in the next 3 - 4 months and manage to fix RU9 so it has half decent results. It's a decent argument if the sector improves.

  • Reply to

    The C&D Preferreds are getting killed once again

    by pa1702 Dec 5, 2014 10:29 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 5, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    Book value is over $5 / share currently, so I don't think negative asset value is the issue for the dividends. The question is really will they have enough cash flow and what do they want to do. My guess is that they probably pay the next one. After that they need to start hitting on some of their easy wells.

  • Reply to

    The C&D Preferreds are getting killed once again

    by pa1702 Dec 5, 2014 10:29 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 5, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    The GDP preferred issues (and many others) are getting killed over the last several days. That's probably a major reason why the mill pref issues are down. Institutions are dumping everything in the sector - even some preferred issues that are much better in quality than the mill issues. The sector really stinks and caused me to close a mill trade earlier than I would have liked to. Have to agree with you though Verado in this case. The rise in the pref issues was bullish the common to bounce. It was true and I took some heat for pointing it out. Likewise the selloff in the pref issues is bearish for the common. Much harder for mill to raise capital with the preferred at 13 than the preferred at 20.
    You should have admitted that the bounce in the preferred was bullish. I will admit that the selloff in the mill preferred issues (not to mention the rest of the sector) is bearish.

  • Reply to

    Here's a margin call for you

    by acatscratch Dec 4, 2014 5:44 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 5, 2014 1:49 PM Flag

    If SB owned both mill-pd and mill (doubt he owned any preferred), the broker would decide what to sell. They probably would sell the common anyway in that case. Selling a non-marginable issue helps more to resolve a margin call.

  • don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 5, 2014 1:45 PM Flag

    I hate to defend SB, but I don't think he did anything wrong in THIS case. He got a margin call and the broker sold the shares. Unless you're going to mandate that insiders hold all shares in a cash account, that can happen.

  • Reply to

    Heavy Buying in Preferred Issues Again

    by don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 10:31 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 5, 2014 1:41 PM Flag

    Talkshow, you should reread what I said. I said the buying in the preferred was positive for the common, which it was. The mill common bounced and I sold it. I said the common was oversold due to margin calls, which we know was at least somewhat correct. I sold the common (would have liked to hold it longer) because the whole sector was getting killed. I never advocated buying the preferred issues, just using them as a short term indicator for the common. In fact I strongly advocated that subscribers dump the preferred issues on the rally to 20. Got many subscribers out of the Mill common and pref issues at much higher levels. The problem for Mill is that many energy issues are way down for companies that are executing well operationally. I think Mill will survive as they do some easier wells and have some cash. You do have companies executing well such as SD and GST (not recommending those 2, just giving an example)
    that are also way down. Anyway, why don't you put me on ignore or ask yahoo for a refund.

  • Reply to

    Here's a margin call for you

    by acatscratch Dec 4, 2014 5:44 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 5, 2014 1:26 PM Flag

    A filing would be required if he owned mill-pc since it's convertible, but not for mill-pd. Doubt he owns any though.

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