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AmeriGas Partners LP Message Board

don_t_panick 273 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 18, 2015 7:20 PM Member since: Apr 4, 2001
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  • Reply to

    RU3 & RU4 up next

    by don_t_panick Dec 1, 2014 8:03 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 11:40 AM Flag

    I had the Mill covered play since April selling the August 5 calls for 1 and reselling calls twice. The cost of it after selling 3 calls was down to 3.40 when I recommended closing it for a loss. The Panick Report had several very good plays on Mill including Mill-pc, mill-pd, mill calls and a prior mill covered call play that were very profitable. I did correctly advise cutting losses on the last one prior to the big drop. The last appearance of mill-pc in the Panick 10 resulted in a 25% gain for 3 days in Oct. Mill was dropped for the first time as an equity pick in Oct 2013 after a gain of more than 100%.
    Keep up the personal attacks Verado. Maybe I'll keep posting because it's personal even after I take profits on this trade. How stupid are you that you really don't know that a stock is no longer marginable when it drops below $3? Every trader knows that.

  • Reply to

    Mill-pc higher on highest volume of the year

    by don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 1:46 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 11:07 AM Flag

    The stock stopped being marginable for most brokers when it dropped below $3. Do you really not know that Verado?

  • Reply to

    RU3 & RU4 up next

    by don_t_panick Dec 1, 2014 8:03 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    My recollection is that Mill was spending around that amount per RU well back when they were doing short easy wells close to the platform. A shorter well that they can knock off in about 30 - 45 days is going to be a lot cheaper than these longer "extended reach" wells like RU9 that take many months and require running much more pipe Mill was doing great when they were doing the shorter wells. They got into trouble when they decided to focus on proving reserves. A 10 mil well where Alaska rebates 4 mil that has an IP rate of 400 - 500 bopd is exactly the type of well they need to do. The shorter wells are also less prone to the type of execution problems that they experienced with RU9. They had so many good opportunities close to the platform left when they decided to go out and prove reserves. I think management figured that proving reserves was key to being bought out so they went that route instead of focusing on cash flow. Geisler has wisely taken them back to basics.

  • Reply to

    Heavy Buying in Preferred Issues Again

    by don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 10:31 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 10:43 AM Flag

    I don't know about that. Someone bought several million dollars worth of preferred stock over the last couple of days. I'm personally more of a fan of issues like FXENP or SDRXP, but I've got to respect that type of buying in a preferred issue. Retail investors are fickle. If Mill announced that they finished reworking RU9 or WMRU8 and decent amounts of oil were flowing, I think you'd see people jumping back in. Same thing if Geisler came out and bought another big block after earnings. Anyway, about time that someone posted the positive case here.

  • Reply to

    How panicked is don?

    by boruffsucks Dec 2, 2014 1:40 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    I think I'll stay long for awhile here. Looking forward to some insider buying after earnings. Looking forward to hearing more about RU3, RU4 and some easier wells. Looking forward to seeing if any oil flows from RU9 now that it's been totally discounted. The buying in the preferred issues last couple of days was pretty serious money coming in.

  • The heavy buying in the preferred issues again this morning shows that mill has the cash and time to execute.

  • Reply to

    How panicked is don?

    by boruffsucks Dec 2, 2014 1:40 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 4:11 AM Flag

    It's going to close over $2 later this week. Check the trading action on mill-pc on Monday. It was up on the highest volume of the year. Look for the common to rebound and follow the preferred.

  • Reply to

    Mill Could Bounce over $2 on Tuesday

    by don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 1:08 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 4:09 AM Flag

    Talkshow, I bought stock at 3.09 and then they reported problems 100 bopd at RU9 and electrical problems. Somehow the stock actually traded higher on that news. Naturally I dumped it. At 1.53 all the bad news was factored in and then some.

  • Reply to

    How panicked is don?

    by boruffsucks Dec 2, 2014 1:40 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 1:51 AM Flag

    Good to see I'm making you shorts clock back in and work overtime. Better be working hard Tuesday. Not looking like a good day for team Verado. Newsletter tip Monday was XKE trading in the 4.75 - 5 range. Closed at 5.85. I think you know what Tuesday's tip is - LOL.

  • Difference between mill-pc and mill was that the common had margin call selling. Preferred had a big day on the highest volume of the year. Common is going to bounce hard on Tuesday. Glad I jumped back in today at 1.53. Only regret is not buying more.

  • Reply to

    How panicked is don?

    by boruffsucks Dec 2, 2014 1:40 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 1:43 AM Flag

    I just jumped back in at 1.53. Up 10% already with the stock at 1.70. I didn't like the personal attacks and gloating by the shorts. Decided it was time to make the positive case.

  • don_t_panick by don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 1:26 AM Flag

    Posting conversations with themselves with multiple ID's. Excessive greed in refusing to cover even on a capitulation selloff. Pretending to be longs. Take Verado off ignore after 3 months and he's still making personal attacks on me. Posting outright lies. Mill has about 75 mil of cash, hedges that can be sold available credit and pending tax credits from Alaska. I must have read 10 posts here phony longs about how they were on the verge of bankruptcy. What a bunch of BS. Time to put a little balance back on this message board.

  • The stock was so oversold today on forced margin selling Oil and the preferred issues showed a lot of strength. Think we get a bounce back over $2 on Tuesday. Keep up the personal attacks on me Verado and let's see what happens.

  • Reply to

    RU12 Should be drilled

    by don_t_panick Dec 1, 2014 7:25 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 1:04 AM Flag

    I think they got a little carried away with proving reserves and maximizing Alaska tax credits. I believe they get a 60% credit for RU9 or Ru12 since they are drilling into a new fault block. The tax credit for a well like RU3 or RU4 is probably only 40%. Reserves and tax credits are important, but KeyBank wants cash flow to raise the borrowing base.

  • Reply to

    Higher in after-hours

    by don_t_panick Dec 1, 2014 8:22 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 1:00 AM Flag

    Great point. The preferred moving higher with the common selling off, speaks to forced selling on the common due to margin calls. Mill broke below $3 triggering margin calls. Any shorts that didn't cover today on the spike down in the common with the preferred rallying on high volume are not as smart as they think they are.

  • Reply to

    RU3 & RU4 up next

    by don_t_panick Dec 1, 2014 8:03 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 12:50 AM Flag

    One reason I dropped Mill as an equity pick (although kept it as a covered call play for awhile) back in August was because I was unhappy with the drilling schedule. Geisler has shifted the focus back to cash flow from proving reserves. One of the first things he did was prioritize RU3 and RU4 on the drilling schedule.

  • Reply to

    Time for Polar Vortex

    by don_t_panick Dec 1, 2014 7:38 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 12:44 AM Flag

    The time for you to cover was today Verado during the capitulation selloff. There are many things that can go wrong for the shorts here. Higher nat gas prices are just one of them. Mill may yet flow some oil from RU9. Same for WMRU-8. Insider buying after the earnings seems likely. Geisler may yet find a joint venture partner. Badami is accretive. NF is going well. You got too greedy today. I've been out of Mill for awhile but the greed of the shorts and one-sidedness was too much to watch. Given your personal attacks on me. I'm going to enjoy taking you down a notch. Mill is not TAOIF or PTAXF trading at less than 1.5X cash flow, but it sure is heck is due for a bounce.

  • Reply to

    RU12 Should be drilled

    by don_t_panick Dec 1, 2014 7:25 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 12:36 AM Flag

    I took you off ignore after months and see you are still making personal attacks. Mill needs to drill more wells quickly. RU3 and RU4 cane be done in close to a month each. That's what they need to do. Make all the personal attacks you want, but you're going to regret not covering at the close Monday. That was a mistake and it will soon be apparent.

  • Reply to

    The Phoney "Long" Index

    by don_t_panick Dec 1, 2014 7:07 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 1, 2014 9:49 PM Flag

    Thanks Cat. If Geisler liked it at $5, I think he's going in for more when the buying window opens after earnings. Guess we'll find out. Jumped in here for a trade. Could be a nice longer term play though from current prices now that they are focusing on cash flow instead of proving reserves. It's a long overdue move and prior management took the company to the brink with their excessive focus on proving reserves.

  • Reply to

    The Phoney "Long" Index

    by don_t_panick Dec 1, 2014 7:07 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 1, 2014 8:59 PM Flag

    Notice how all the shorts and phony long ID's all clock out at the same time. What a scam. Time for a little balance on this message board. Any shorts that didn't cover today are excessively greedy and deserve to watch Geisler buy a block of shares right after earnings. Pigs get slaughtered!

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