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AmeriGas Partners LP Message Board

don_t_panick 226 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 31 minutes ago Member since: Apr 4, 2001
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  • Reply to

    Heavy Buying in Preferred Issues Again

    by don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 10:31 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 5, 2014 1:41 PM Flag

    Talkshow, you should reread what I said. I said the buying in the preferred was positive for the common, which it was. The mill common bounced and I sold it. I said the common was oversold due to margin calls, which we know was at least somewhat correct. I sold the common (would have liked to hold it longer) because the whole sector was getting killed. I never advocated buying the preferred issues, just using them as a short term indicator for the common. In fact I strongly advocated that subscribers dump the preferred issues on the rally to 20. Got many subscribers out of the Mill common and pref issues at much higher levels. The problem for Mill is that many energy issues are way down for companies that are executing well operationally. I think Mill will survive as they do some easier wells and have some cash. You do have companies executing well such as SD and GST (not recommending those 2, just giving an example)
    that are also way down. Anyway, why don't you put me on ignore or ask yahoo for a refund.

  • Reply to

    Here's a margin call for you

    by acatscratch Dec 4, 2014 5:44 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 5, 2014 1:26 PM Flag

    A filing would be required if he owned mill-pc since it's convertible, but not for mill-pd. Doubt he owns any though.

  • Reply to

    Is the C&D

    by verado Dec 4, 2014 5:11 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 5, 2014 1:22 PM Flag

    Verado, I never advocated buying the mill preferred shares. Maybe you should reread the post. I said the mill common would bounce based on the buying in the preferred - which it did. Just pointed out that someone was buying them. Haven't had MIll-pc as a pick since it was dropped near 23. I'm still not a fan of the mill preferred issues. Other preferred issues are better values.

  • Reply to

    Heavy Buying in Preferred Issues Again

    by don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 10:31 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 4, 2014 8:56 PM Flag

    eechicken, how much is mill-pd or other energy sector preferred issues down over the same period? How Many are down much more unfortunately. The whole energy sector is down. FXEN is a natural gas producer and they sell nat gas in Poland at 3X the US mainland price. Even with the recent drop in price for the FXEN common it's about 2/3 of the enterprise value. The Mill common is closer to 20% of the enterprise value.
    So everything else being equal, I'd rather get a comparable high yield from a less leveraged company that has less exposure to a drop in oil prices. Even so they had a dry hole today and the sector is down. Many good energy issues like SDRXP for Sandrige are down much more.

  • Reply to

    Here's a margin call for you

    by acatscratch Dec 4, 2014 5:44 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 4, 2014 7:00 PM Flag

    Keep up the personal attacks and maybe I'll stop back more just for the heck of it. I made a few bucks on the quick bounce and was obviously correct that at least one big margin call had something to do with the selloff. Might be some good news for RU3, RU4 and WMRU-8 to stop back and trade on.

    P.S. Someone better explain to Verado how a margin call works. That was pretty embarrassing for you guys that he didn't know below $3 wasn't marginable. EVERYONE knows that - LOL.

  • Reply to

    Here's a margin call for you

    by acatscratch Dec 4, 2014 5:44 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 4, 2014 6:46 PM Flag

    Like I said, some of the selloff was triggered by margin calls as Mill dropped below $3. It's unfortunate that the energy sector has been so bad the last few trading days that we didn't get more of a bounce off that sharp of a selloff. Mill is going to have a hard time rallying when the whole sector is getting bombed. Took profits on the "bounce trade" at the open this morning after looking at the oil futures. Good luck to the longs.

  • Reply to

    October Production Is Strong

    by samtn12 Dec 3, 2014 9:31 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 4, 2014 9:08 AM Flag

    Well they don't call him "Verado the Liar" for nothing. Remember how he claimed for months not to be a short. Then he said he was a short in his son's account. Then he said he was a short. Then he claims to have single handedly caused a rally in the preferred issues by covering hundreds of thousands of shares, but doesn't seem to know how a margin account works. Claims he covered preferred stock even though he thinks they won't pay the next dividend - LOL.
    Then there were the production numbers that always forgot to include some parts of the company. Then there were the repeated claims that Mill was going to run out of cash, couldn't close the keybank credit line, etc. Mill has had their problems, but is still fun to trade and the story is not as one sided as presented by the shorts. As for Verado, there is an easy way to tell if he's lying about something. Just check to see if he's posting.

  • Reply to

    Looks like todays deadcat bounce

    by talkshow55 Dec 2, 2014 1:03 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 4, 2014 8:56 AM Flag

    Nice little bounce in Mill and a little balance has been restored to this board. It's pretty funny to see someone who posts non-stop BS complaining about someone else's posts. Glad I'm getting on your nerves as shown by the personal attacks.

  • Reply to

    Looks like todays deadcat bounce

    by talkshow55 Dec 2, 2014 1:03 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 3, 2014 5:43 PM Flag

    Looks like the bounce might not be a one day event after-all. When a stock comes down from about 3.25 and bottoms near 1.50 it could easily bounce half the loss. Wouldn't surprise me to see Mill bounce to the 2.25 - 2.50 range pretty quickly.

  • Reply to

    October Production Is Strong

    by samtn12 Dec 3, 2014 9:31 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 3, 2014 5:37 PM Flag

    That's funny Verado, if a well was shut-in and it temporarily lowered monthly production you never counted that as a reasonable excuse or bothered to mention it when you posted numbers (often forgetting to include some of the production from other areas). How dare you now complain that production increased because wells were online.
    As for BP buying back the pipeline, that's unlikely. A giant like that doesn't want to be involved with potential environmental liabilities. That's an issue that BP is no doubt especially sensitive to. If BP wanted the pipeline they would most likely already have exercised the option.

  • Reply to

    Mill-pc higher on highest volume of the year

    by don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 1:46 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 3, 2014 11:18 AM Flag

    Preferred issues are up again on significant volume. Is that still you covering shorts Verado? Are you going to say you shorted 100K preferred shares in your son's account next? LMFAO.

  • Reply to

    Mill-pc higher on highest volume of the year

    by don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 1:46 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 3, 2014 9:31 AM Flag

    mill-pc traded over 20 briefly yesterday. That's a lot to pay to cover a short if you really think they are having a liquidity crisis. Might be a good idea to cover a preferred short though before being forced to shell out a hefty dividend. So if you covered a preferred short (and who knows if anything you say about your trades is true given your history in that regards), then obviously we agree that they are going to pay the next dividend.

  • Reply to

    Anyone want to make a bet on whether MILL

    by pa1702 Dec 2, 2014 4:17 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 5:59 PM Flag

    I agree that they will pay the March preferred dividends. I had some doubts until they came out with the press release a couple of days ago pounding the table about their liquidity, hedging and natural gas sales. That's not a press release a company puts out when they are planning to defer the next dividend.

  • Reply to

    RU3 & RU4 up next

    by don_t_panick Dec 1, 2014 8:03 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 5:46 PM Flag

    Thanks Sam. Good to see my recollection on the RU numbers was ok. I think investors are so used to seeing delays at RU9 that many have forgotten what it's like for Mill to drill those easier wells. If I recall correctly, RU3 & RU4 were originally gas wells that are being redone as oil wells now that the gas is depleted. Given the above, those might even be significantly less than 10 mil each and towards the low end of the 30 - 45 day time estimate. Hopefully Mill will walk through estimated drilling times, costs, budgeted production estimates, anticipated payback and net present value for this type of well on the call.

  • Reply to

    margin

    by noctu_1 Dec 2, 2014 2:56 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 5:38 PM Flag

    As a practical matter most brokerage firms won't allow stocks under $3 to be marginable. Perhaps in some sophisticated or offshore accounts they can be. For most investors using firms like etrade, Scottrade, ameritrade, schwab, etc they can't.

  • Reply to

    Looks like todays deadcat bounce

    by talkshow55 Dec 2, 2014 1:03 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 5:35 PM Flag

    If you look at the trading today in issues like gdp and sd it's not hard to see why mill couldn;t hold gain. The sector was terrible. I made the positive case. There has been no shortage of folks making the negative case. That's not pumping - it's adding a little balance. I didn't close my mill trade. Plan to stay long for awhile.

  • don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 12:32 PM Flag

    Decided it needed it's own thread. Just like you guys need 10 aliases posting the same things. Why would I be panicked about a trade that's up more than 10% overnight? Let's see how panicked I am when Mill trades over $2.

  • Every trade knows that. Even beginners. It's obvious that the drop below $3 would cause some margin calls and contributed to the sharp selloff and bottom Mill put in. I don't think Verado is even a trader. Probably posting from a boiler room in india with the rest of his aliases. Every trader knows basic margin rules.

  • don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 12:10 PM Flag

    It's a fair point, but you do still have analysts covering the stock. Much more so than in the early days. Maybe MLV (LTS) and others are only here to sell the next offering of preferred stock, but they are here and these brokerage houses have many retail clients. LTS alone has thousands. If they execute on some wells and insiders do some buying, I think the stock will do ok.

  • Reply to

    RU3 & RU4 up next

    by don_t_panick Dec 1, 2014 8:03 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 11:44 AM Flag

    Thanks Sam. What's your estimate on cost for drilling a well like RU3 or RU4? Is my estimate of 10 mil gross and 6 mil net after Alaska rebate in the right ballpark? How long would you figure the drilling time is for those? 30 - 45 days seems in the right ballpark to me. Mill should really clarify this stuff in their presentation or on the conference call, so that people understand the significance of their change in strategy.

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