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AmeriGas Partners LP Message Board

don_t_panick 277 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 18, 2015 7:20 PM Member since: Apr 4, 2001
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  • Reply to

    Attiva now owns more of Doral than.......

    by boyt1961 Nov 6, 2014 11:03 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Nov 6, 2014 4:52 PM Flag

    I have to say that I have some doubts about Attiva. Weren't they against a US mainland asset sale? That's the major reason to own the stock. Didn't they more recently tweet about CD rates from DRL which is indicative of nothing? DRL has plenty of liquidity. I would worry about the regulators, the PR tax case, asset sales, profitability and tier I capital levels. They seems to be focused on the wrong metrics.

  • don_t_panick don_t_panick Nov 2, 2014 9:22 AM Flag

    Could that press release contain just a little bit of hype? Fastest growing bank in PR? Are they shrinking less rapidly than competitors? Who writes this stuff?

    "Doral Bank is the fastest growing financial services institution in Puerto Rico"

  • Reply to

    Is Doral in fdic compliance?

    by greenbacks98 Nov 18, 2014 4:22 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Nov 18, 2014 10:23 PM Flag

    No they are out of compliance and under a consent order to raise capital levels.

  • Reply to

    This is YES close to bankruptcy

    by umbisam Dec 5, 2014 11:43 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 7, 2014 11:06 PM Flag

    You must be delusional. Cash is increasing and they have more cash than debt. Production is increasing. and will end the year at 7,400 boepd. They have very low cost production. Plenty of cash for capex. Oh and by the way, our partner Vetra is now trucking oil from PUT to the OCP pipeline in Ecuador. PTA will soon be participating in that. Trucking costs there are about $15 / barrel and cost drop to $5.

  • Reply to

    Pointing out the obvious

    by red.tsar1 Nov 6, 2014 12:51 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Nov 6, 2014 4:44 PM Flag

    Red is exactly right. The DRL common and even the preferred issues are highly speculative. Long or short. I give them a Risk Rating of 9 on a scale of 1 to 10 in the Panick Report and cover them as highly speculative issues. On that scale 1 is a company with no debt and strong cash flow. 10 is reserved for trading issues that are actually in bankruptcy. If the bank closes a US mainland asset sale or successfully collects a big chunk of cash from PR, then it might move out of the speculative category. Until then, it's clearly speculative.

  • Reply to

    Caoll Report Thoughts

    by frontlineinv Oct 31, 2014 1:56 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Nov 2, 2014 9:37 AM Flag

    A 78 mil Q3 loss is not a good report. Tier 1 was 2.4%, which is not a good report. If it was 1.9% then the regulators would have shut them down on the spot. I have seen banks get shut down with 2.4%, although I think the regulators will take into account that they are in process of closing US mainland asset sales and making "progress". If it's still at 2.4% next quarter or the quarter after that, the regulators might be less patient. DRL is a high risk / high reward trade to bet on the US mainland asset sale closing before that happens.

    Disc: Took profits on my DRL trade ahead of the call report to protect the gains against the possibility of a bad report like this.

  • don_t_panick don_t_panick Nov 4, 2014 10:17 PM Flag

    I read that as "no grounds" for the imposition of court costs, which is the exact opposite of Boyt's reading. Translation is problematic though, so maybe I'm wrong on this. Also this is dated for Oct 30th, so I'm not sure it's really news. If it was really news, the company would probably have put out an 8K to explain it. The thing I read as positive here, is that the judge only took a couple of weeks to reject PR. The process is moving quickly. Of course it would be more impressive if the appeals court had rejected PR (as I expect that they will). It would have been shocking it the judge that just ruled for DRL had changed his own ruling. This ruling was almost automatic and is no great victory. The after-hours buy doesn't look likely to hold to me.

  • Reply to

    Unable to file 10-Q's since 2013

    by bmygc Nov 12, 2014 8:43 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Nov 13, 2014 10:18 PM Flag

    Basically what the company is saying is that until they raise capital levels, the risks are so high that they are having difficulty disclosing them all properly. The legal disclosures are so bad that they can't put of the report without a risk of being sued for misleading investors. So they are not going to file any reports until they either raise capital levels by closing the asset sale or get seized. I think they will pull off the asset sale, but clearly the DRL common and preferred issues are speculative. My guess is that it's going down to the wire in Jan.

  • don_t_panick don_t_panick Nov 6, 2014 8:27 PM Flag

    It indicates that Doral needs less deposits as their balance sheet shrinks. Does Attiva even know that regulators closely restrict what rates DRL can offer (based on the local market rates) as part of the consent order? Is Attiva concerned about liquidity instead of real issues they should be watching such as regulatory capital, asset sales, the PR tax case and the Q3 operating loss? Liquidity is barely in the top 5 things I'd be watching.

  • Reply to

    Caoll Report Thoughts

    by frontlineinv Oct 31, 2014 1:56 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Nov 2, 2014 9:54 AM Flag

    One potential risk to consider, is that the regulators can foul up the pending sale of US mainland assets. But, that's not logical you say. The regulators should be cheering for DRL to close the US mainland asset sale. The sale would double tier 1 capital levels and eliminate the need for the regulators to potentially spend money seizing the bank.
    I have learned from trading distressed bank stocks that the regulators are a bunch of Vogon Trolls. The intense pressure on Doral played a major part in the big Q3 loss they just reported. They ALWAYS make a tough situation worse. The buyer of any US mainland Doral branches will need to get a waiver of cross liens from the regulators. That waiver tells the buyer that the regulators can't come after them for money in the event that DRL PR branches get seized (even years later). I saw Capitol Bancorp go down because the regulators refused to grant routine cross lien waivers that prevented a capital raise. I think the US mainland asset sale will probably close, but there are real risks that the regulators can foul it up with Tier 1 at 2.4%.

  • Reply to

    Caoll Report Thoughts

    by frontlineinv Oct 31, 2014 1:56 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Nov 2, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    Just to put things in perspective, they were at tier1 leverage of 2.6% for the Q2 Call report and slipped to 2.2% for the Q3 call report despite efforts to shrink the balance sheet. The bank literally can't take another quarterly hit like that. It's "do or die" for them to close the US mainland asset sale or end the PR appeals process in the next 87 days before the Q4 Call report comes out. If you like a high level of suspense, you've got it here. At the right price, I'd bet on them to pull it off. $6 (sent an alert to Panick Report subscribers to close the trade at $6) was too high for me given the risks.

  • Every trade knows that. Even beginners. It's obvious that the drop below $3 would cause some margin calls and contributed to the sharp selloff and bottom Mill put in. I don't think Verado is even a trader. Probably posting from a boiler room in india with the rest of his aliases. Every trader knows basic margin rules.

  • don_t_panick by don_t_panick Dec 18, 2014 6:54 AM Flag

    Let me offend the message board police and compare the mill preferred issues to the gdp issues. Those who think that mill preferred issues trade in a vacuum probably bought last week at 12 - 15 thinking they were cheap. Relative valuations matter. GDP-PD bottomed below 6.50 on 12/8 and has been moving higher since then. Mill-pd traded as high as 12.50 on 12/8. GDP-PD is now trading above mill-pd which is probably where it should be given that GDP has 135 mil in liquidity and that number will increase to nearly 200 mil if they close an asset sale next week as expected.
    Looks like the mill pref issues are at or near the bottom. So why are they bottoming more than a week later than the gdp issues? The mill preferred issues are primarily retail issues and the gdp issues are more institutional issues. The institutional issues get dumped first and hardest in a panic. Last week was the time to focus on issues like GDP-PD (still has a lot of room left to the upside actually). Now that those are already rallying it's time for the retail issue like the mill preferred issues to start to follow. Of course that type of analysis on relative valuations went out to Panick Report subscribers last week. (yahoo mail mrpanick).

  • Reply to

    Hilariously Bad Seeking Alpha article

    by don_t_panick Nov 20, 2014 10:13 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Nov 21, 2014 10:16 PM Flag

    Craig, no hostility was intended. I give you credit for coming into the Lion's den of this "obscure" message board to defend your work. The tier 1 leverage of 2.2% is the number that really matters, in my experience trading distressed bank equity and debt issues. That's the important number because there is a "redline" at 2% for tier 1 leverage. If it drops below 2% the regulators will seize the bank. They sometimes seize banks below 4% though if they are so inclined. 2.2% is a critically low level. The higher number (even if correct) does not covey to readers the actual risk involved in all the DRL issues.

  • Reply to

    ‘Climate’ Changing Bank deals,

    by boyt1961 Nov 13, 2014 11:40 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Nov 17, 2014 7:42 AM Flag

    A liberal posting about "climate change" - LOL. Seriously it would be more relevant for DRL if there was a PR deal.

  • Reply to

    Caoll Report Thoughts

    by frontlineinv Oct 31, 2014 1:56 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Nov 2, 2014 11:04 AM Flag

    Without getting too technical, there are different ways to measure capital. For example, if a bank has loans those are riskier and need more risk adjusted capital than other assets (treasury bonds for example). I use the Tier 1 leverage number provided in the Call Report which was 2.2% (sorry my recollection was off when I said 2.4% in earlier posts). There is a regulatory "red line" at 2% for that number. The problem is that the regulators can get nasty at anything below 4% if they don't feel that the bank is making progress fast enough towards getting their numbers back over 4%. 2.2% is not good. That's only a hair above the "red line". They need to settle with PR (to end the appeals process so that they can count the capital) or raise capital with the US mainland asset sale in the next 90 days IMO.

  • Reply to

    RU12 Should be drilled

    by don_t_panick Dec 1, 2014 7:25 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 1:04 AM Flag

    I think they got a little carried away with proving reserves and maximizing Alaska tax credits. I believe they get a 60% credit for RU9 or Ru12 since they are drilling into a new fault block. The tax credit for a well like RU3 or RU4 is probably only 40%. Reserves and tax credits are important, but KeyBank wants cash flow to raise the borrowing base.

  • Reply to

    Congrats to Verado

    by talkshow55 Dec 16, 2014 4:15 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 17, 2014 2:02 PM Flag

    Other issues like GDP, GST and SD are down almost as much. Mill certainly has compounded their problems though with recent drilling problems. They nearly sunk the company with too much focus on high risk drilling and not enough on cash flow. That change in focus is one reason I started suggesting alternative issues awhile back (which made some folks unhappy). Less leveraged issues like TAOIF that are hitting good wells lately are also down big, but not as badly as Mill. The good news for Mill is that they still have an opportunity to turn things around.

  • Reply to

    8K

    by redfacedclown Dec 12, 2014 6:35 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 13, 2014 5:51 PM Flag

    We don't know what's in the original plan. We don't know what's in the revised plan. We don't know what the regulators are thinking or what they might do. We haven't heard anything on asset sales in some time and if that's still part of the original or revised plans. Unless anyone has inside info, trading these issues at this point is trading blind.

  • Reply to

    RU12 Should be drilled

    by don_t_panick Dec 1, 2014 7:25 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Dec 2, 2014 12:36 AM Flag

    I took you off ignore after months and see you are still making personal attacks. Mill needs to drill more wells quickly. RU3 and RU4 cane be done in close to a month each. That's what they need to do. Make all the personal attacks you want, but you're going to regret not covering at the close Monday. That was a mistake and it will soon be apparent.

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