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AmeriGas Partners LP Message Board

don_t_panick 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 15, 2015 1:40 PM Member since: Apr 4, 2001
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  • Reply to

    Great article

    by verado Aug 8, 2015 10:58 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Aug 10, 2015 7:42 AM Flag

    And on the subject of integrity, as I recall you started posting here for months claiming not to be a short. Then you claimed that you were not a short, but were "shorting it in your son's account". Now you claim to have been a short.

    Don't lecture others on integrity, until you find some yourself.

  • Reply to

    Dividends suspended?

    by elemoncelli Jun 26, 2015 10:36 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Jun 27, 2015 3:29 PM Flag

    Two highly speculative preferred stocks that are trading for nearly the same price as MILL-PC / MILL-PD that are actually paying the dividend are GDPAN and EXIXF. GDPAN is a par 50 for GDP and EXIXF is a par 250 for EXXI. MILL has little chance of paying the preferred dividend, GDPAN and EXIXF are both current.
    MILL has little cash. EXIXF has about a billion in liquidity and GDP has about 100 million. Both companies are much better managed than MILL. Both recently completed bond sales. MILL has no access to capital. I've written 3 Seeking Alpha articles on the GDP preferred issues and a new EXXI article on their preferred will be out shortly. Panick Value Research Report (google it) subscribers get advance copies of upcoming articles as well as daily alerts.

  • Reply to

    so what does this mean?

    by lestercohen37 Jul 6, 2015 5:36 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Jul 7, 2015 9:42 AM Flag

    The agreement is very positive since it raises regulatory capital. You may see it as just putting cash from one pocket into another pocket, but regulators count cash more in some pockets than others.

  • Reply to

    Great article

    by verado Aug 8, 2015 10:58 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Aug 9, 2015 7:16 PM Flag

    I think you're beating a dead horse at this point Verado.

  • don_t_panick by don_t_panick Aug 15, 2015 1:40 PM Flag

    EXXI just declared their upcoming preferred dividend on EXIXF in cash. The SDRXP dividend is being paid Monday in shares of SD common. As I pointed out awhile back, until recently those preferred issues traded for less than the MILL preferred issues. EXIXF is still super cheap at 10 cents on the dollar. SDRXP is at 15 cents on the dollar. EXXI has 850 mil in liquidity and a swap with the 2017 / 2018 debt holders is likely to reduce debt. SD has 1.5 bil in liquidity and just did a $500 mil deal which reduces debt at less than 40 cents on the dollar.

  • don_t_panick don_t_panick Jun 13, 2015 4:50 PM Flag

    Now that MILL has cutoff the preferred dividend, I sure wouldn't recommend holding your breath waiting for them to reinstate it. At best it's going to be a long wait. A long, long wait. Probably until never. Believe it or not you can actually buy a couple of issues that are still paying the dividend almost as cheaply. I've mentioned GDPAN which continues to pay it and is a par 50 trading near $8. Only slightly more expensive than the MILL preferred issues. SDRXP has been rallying back from a selloff but is still cheap for a par 100 trading at 32. Actually it's cheaper than that after you deduct the 4.25 dividend they will announce soon.
    Just sent out a rough article draft to Panick Report subscribers (yahoo mail mrpanick for info) on another cheap preferred issue. This one is trading at 16 cents on the dollar and is current on the dividend. Company has 725 million in liquidity and is still paying a dividend on the common stock. No debt maturities until 2017 and those are likely to be extended. Yields over 30%. Dividend deferral is very unlikely since it can be paid in cash or shares of common. Look for the article out on Seeking Alpha in about a week. There are still much better choices out there than MILL-PC / MILL-pD.

  • Reply to

    Moving thread up

    by odarev Jul 4, 2015 10:38 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Jul 6, 2015 8:23 PM Flag

    I certainly don't want to defend MILL, but Apollo carrying the loans at 90% could mean that they expect a 2/3 chance to get back 100% and a 1/3 chance to get back 70%. It doesn't necessarily mean they expect to get back 90%.
    The biggest problem with MILL-PC / MILL-PD is that they are over-priced relative to other better opportunities. Why would you buy Lehman during the financial crisis when Goldman Sachs and BankAmerica are also on sale? The par 100 SDRXP (Sandridge par 100) is on sale for 22 and change and they just declared a 4.25 dividend. Net out the divvy and its 18 cents on the dollar. MILL-PC / MILL-PD are at around 14 cents on the dollar. After SDRXP declares the next dividend in 6 months the net cost will be the same as for MILL-PC / MILL-PD.

  • Reply to

    Great article

    by verado Aug 8, 2015 10:58 AM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Aug 10, 2015 7:30 AM Flag

    I've been posting for some time that people should swap out of MILL into PTAXF, TAOIF and EWPMF. None of those have done great on the oil selloff, but those are debt free companies and none are at risk of bankruptcy. They are down less than most energy sector micro caps and will be around for the next up-cycle.

    I've been out of the MILL issues (except for the occasional short term trade) for some time. I've often advised people to swap into other issues from MILL-PC / MILL-PD such as SDRXP, GDPAN and EXIXF lately. Those are down on the oil selloff, but all are still paying dividends and have good liquidity.

    As I recall many folks complained that I was posting off topic, when I've suggested other issues here. Unlike you, I don't think that MILL was predestined for failure. I think they had chances to succeed and didn't execute. I liked them at one point (did very well trading the common, preferred and options on balance) and changed my opinion as results missed.

  • don_t_panick don_t_panick Jun 6, 2015 9:58 AM Flag

    MILL owes 175 million to Apollo and is paying close to 15% on it. A deal with GRH for disposal wells is unlikely and would at best raise a few million.

  • don_t_panick don_t_panick Jun 5, 2015 8:51 PM Flag

    I follow GRH-PC. GRH has about 15 mil of liquidity on a really goof day. MILL owes 175 mil to Apollo. The idea that GRH is going to bail out MILL is ludicrous.

  • Reply to

    OPEC Still Flooding The Market.

    by zigzag111 Jun 7, 2015 5:17 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Jun 16, 2015 9:42 PM Flag

    FYI, 90% of FXEN production is natural gas produced in Poland. They are not a significant oil producer.

  • Reply to

    Outstanding acquisition announced today.

    by chip_jamerson Jun 15, 2015 5:50 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Jun 16, 2015 12:43 PM Flag

    Will be a reverse split, 1 for 10 after the Petronova merger is complete.

  • Reply to

    Moving thread up

    by odarev Jul 4, 2015 10:38 PM
    don_t_panick don_t_panick Jul 7, 2015 6:21 PM Flag

    I still think it's more of a statistical probability to reflect the fact that MILL is clearly a distressed company. I don't think Apollo really knows what they will ultimately recover. If a company has a pool of accounts receivables they are going to take an allowance against them. They don't necessarily know which ones will be bad or how bad they will be, but they try to take a reasonable guess for accounting purposes. That's all Apollo has down and I don't think people should read into it.
    The above is not intended to defend MILL. Why anyone would own MILL-PC / MILL-PD when they can buy EXIXF (shout out to "Long Player" for his seeking alpha article) for a bigger discount to par is hard to say. If MILL does go bust, the 10% valuation allowance by Apollo could be really low. If MILL does fail, Apollo deserves a lot of credit for the huge loss they will undoubtedly take. Had Apollo not taken such a hard line with MILL, the company might have had continued access to capital and been in a somewhat better position. Some of the moves that Apollo made (overly restrictive covenants and the huge markup in interest rates) may not look so wise in retrospect. MILL was already up the creek, but Apollo took away their paddle.

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