Been buying on the psnic also. The selloff was triggered by a misleading hit piece in barrons on puerto rico muni bonds. Drl got about 400k in q2 interest from all muni holdingd as per call report. Pr munis are a small holding. A rounding error probably.
That's a strange way to judge a bank's current financial strength - whether or not a bank took TARP years ago. FBP and BPOP are of course better banks than DRL. All 3 are now "well capitalized" at the operating bank level, but FBP and BPOP have better balance sheets. I say this as someone who is long DRL, the DORLN non-cumulative pref issue and the DORLL cumulative preferred issue. You can also see from the equity market caps that DRL equity is valued at a small fraction of FBP and BPOP.
The reason to own DRL is because it's a cheaper bank - not a better bank. BPOP is at 75% of book value and FBP is trading above book value. DRL is trading at a much bigger discount to book. If you assume DRL will be profitable in 2014 and thereafter (which I think is likely) they will be adding back their deferred tax assets to book within a couple of years. DRL is now trading at around 20% of book value + DTA. That would be why you want to own DRL rather than FBP or BPOP.
I took a quick look at BTH. Their actual business is a low margin business and revenues were down in the last quarter. In fact they seem to have had a really bad Q2 report. The stock has already had a big run. Although it could certainly trade higher on a short squeeze, I'm not sure how great the fundamentals are there. There is also a short squeeze happening in SHLD (I own some debt but no common and would avoid the common). Sometimes shorts are there for a reason. Be careful playing short squeezes unless you are sure the fundamentals are in your favor as they are with Mill. I don't follow BTH and didn't look that closely, but at first glance I was not impressed at all.
Its trading at about 4.5x ebidta. They are doing wells with 3 to 9 month paybacks using 3d seismic and modern technology. Production to increase to 5000 by end of the year. Oil over 100 and they areselling nat gas for over 2.5x us price. Production cost dropping in turkey. Partner paying costs to start drilling in bulgaria. Any specific reason its wortless?
Just opened a position, so I'm happy it came down in price. I see a couple of major reasons why the stock came down. TUR (the Turkish ETF) was at 77 in May and bottomed at 47 before bouncing. That's going to take TAT down with it regardless of the improving fundamentals.
Also you have many disappointed long term investors - as is apparent. The company didn't drill aggressively in the first half as they focused on getting the 3d seismic done. Probably a good move that should pay off in the next few quarters, but people want instant gratification.
Jumping in now (or adding to a position) you get the cheap stock price just as they are ramping up production in Turkey with quick payback wells. I saw in their presentation that they expect to start gas sales in Bulgaria in 2014 as well (with their partner paying for 30 mil of the initial drilling). Seems like things are company has been working towards for years will be coming to fruition in the near term.
I agree with you that the short position is unrelated to the management warrants. All the warrants and options are disclosed in the annual proxy statement.
The article was a joke. The "analysis" was so simplistic that you have to think it was paid for by the shorts as I don't think the author could actually be that dumb. Then again, maybe the author really is dumb enough to do analysis on fiscal Q1 while ignoring that current production is twice the average daily production in Q1.
At this point in time they have the 3d seismic and they have the well costs down. They are ramping up production with 3 - 6 month payback wells. They've got the partner in Bulgaria jumpstarting production there. They got $100 oil and almost $10 gas. This dog is about to have it's day.
They should make cutbacks, although I suppose they will still need people handling logistics, shipping oil, handling licenses, doing exploratory drilling on their onshore blocks and of course getting coffee for Pacific Rubielos.
I looked at the filings. It looks like very routine stuff related to converting the old DEXO and SPMD employee stock incentive plans into the new plan. Just the routine registration of the shares for future grants.
No stock is going to go straight up. Mill will be a double digit stock this time next year with production over 7,000 boepd. 30% of the float is shorted because they were wrong. They didn't think Mill could ramp up production without issuing more stock. They didn't think Mill had access to capital (preferred now trading over par and Apollo tier II). They thought costs were high (payback time for Ru1 and Ru2 is under 6 months).
Keep doubling down on your wrong bet! It's a classic mistake that both longs and shorts can make. If you were smart, you took the gift yesterday and covered - but I doubt that.
You don't have to wonder. As per Sarbanes Oxley there would be a form 4 filing within 48 hours of any insider sales. No such filings have been made. Therefore no insider selling.
Insiders think (correctly) that this company is going to be worth $20+ / share as they develop assets over the next 2 - 3 years. That's when you will see them selling. Thanigs are just starting to ramp up. Insiders have gone to great lengths not to dilute their equity stake with a secondary offering. That's why they've issued preferred and did the higher cost loans with Apollo.
It a EBIDTA model based on projected production for July 2014. Seems pretty clear to me that Mill is going to be a double digit stock assuming even decent continued execution. I do a newsletter on undervalued microcaps like Mill and preferred issues like Mill-pc. The preferred was just dropped as a pick as it's trading above par. The Excel models are part of each issue. My yahoo maill is mrpanick if you want a copy.
Don't hold your breath. Of course the insiders know and are trading on the deal most likely. If I still had shares I'd vote for the deal. They have debt due in s coupke of years and it would be tough to refi. They needed to sell and got it done
Some credit to mgt for that.