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Delcath Systems, Inc. Message Board

donmoore8 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 13, 2014 3:46 PM Member since: Nov 25, 2009
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  • by donmoore8 Oct 13, 2014 3:46 PM Flag

    I actually sold around 1.40 but am looking to get back in...this however makes me thinks it may still have room to come down. You never really know what''s going on good or bad until it's too late.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • donmoore8 Sep 16, 2014 11:49 AM Flag

    I've had a large position in aezs for months (averaged in around $1.14). I expect it to rally to at least $1.75-$1.80 minimum in the next 30-40 days.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • donmoore8 Sep 16, 2014 11:46 AM Flag

    I think this stock will react the opposite of OREX and actually rally on the approval news.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • $VVUS has an EV in the low $300M range and has benefitted from STENDRA/SPEDRA revenue to offset large operating expenses--resulting in cash usage of approx. ($18M) during the first six months of 2014 & the Company is due to receive a $15M milestone payment from $AUXL for the likely FDA approval of the sNDA which has a PDUFA date of 9/20/14 so a decision is likely to come out on Friday 9/19; although it could get pushed out until Monday.

    Given a near-term PDUFA catalyst, highly oversold conditions and some recent bullish trading in the $5 October call options; $VVUS is poised for a potential run-up/oversold bounce on a likely (80% estimate) FDA approval with a mid-upper $4 approval target. However, I would expect any approval spikes to fade quickly since the Company has a relatively high cash burn rate that will increase significantly when the CVOT study for QSYMIA gets underway; although this could pave the way for an EU approval filing longer term and the study is a post-marketing FDA requirement so given there is no partner to fund this study; $VVUS will have to fully fund the long-term study which will include key interim data after about two years as outlined in the slide above.

    The lack of both big sales and a partner to fund development & marketing for QSYMIA explains why $VVUS has the lowest EV of the small-cap obesity drug stocks; although $VVUS benefits from STENDRA/SPEDRA revenue which was equal to QSYMIA in the most recent quarter so this is an advantage for the stock and the risk/reward at this point favors long-based trades in the stock and/or options given short interest is very high but has been declining and it makes sense for shorts to lock in most if not all profits at this point given the substantial decline in stock price from all-time highs in the low $30s. The near-term PDUFA catalyst provides a solid short-term trading opportunity for the stock since approval is very likely and the stock is highly oversold so this combination may result in a run-up and/or approval spike if things play out as expected; although there is a risk that the price action will be weaker so any run-ups or approval spikes could be smaller than expected or not occur at all and the stock may experience resistance around the 50-day moving average in the mid-$4s if there is a run-up or approval spike.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

1.24-0.02(-1.59%)Nov 28 12:44 PMEST

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