That's a lot of personal information, and some would say it's either inappropriate or insane to be posting it on YMB.
Maybe. But then again, you don't know me. You don't know where I live. I have nothing to lose by telling the truth. And today, after a year of intensive therapy, I simply try to live in truth. This is not to boast or to fluff my ego. I lost that a long time ago.
However, when we do share personal details about our lives, I think it helps others gain perspective on the psychology of fellow traders. Seriously? Who mortgages their house to put it into FCEL? Who puts 60-80 percent of their savings into one company?
Peter Lynch. Buy what you know, buy what works, and know it inside and out. It's the antithesis of diversification, but at least you know your product.
I agree with this strategy, especially with a short-term investment. Hold a core and take profits on the rest. RE-invest when it goes back down. Be satisfied with selling small pieces - 5 to 10 percent - for modest gains.
It's important to note that it hasn't always been home runs. Sometimes, it's base hits. I had 220,000 shares of FCEL in February, just prior to the run to $4.74. I sold 7,500 at $4.20. But most of my shares were sold in the $2.30 range. I missed DOUBLING 245,000 shares by selling out too early. I also bought back a little too soon for this past runup.
Bottom line - I still have faith in the company.
At 3 percent interest, we got a "small business loan". And we invested in a company. Fuel Cell Energy.
It represents our philosophical beliefs.
It has OUTPERFORMED our personal goals.
And the best is yet to come. I believe that lightning does strike twice. And I believe that I will see FCEL at $10 in the not to distant future - maybe 5-10 years. There will still be opportunities to trade in that time. Study charts. Consider news. And act accordingly.
That's my story.
Anyway, I continued accumulating, through April, adding 60,000 shares below $1. By the time it was all through, I had 245,000 shares at a DCA of $1.03. My highest purchase price was $1.12. My lowest purchase price was .86. In the meantime? Rolls and Gersen purchased 100,000 and 200,000 respectively. The stock was at $1.64 in after hours trading by the end of May. I sold out 170,000 shares between $1.39 and $1.64 and that's how Mrs. Bigs got her new condo...
You see, this is not a total "feel good" home run story. Our marriage began crumbling along with the real estate in 2012. I blame myself for MOST of it. But when push came to shove, I feel I did right by my wife. A condo came open right next oor to her 80 year old mother. My wife is her "caretaker" or will be some day. I love my mother in law. I love my wife. But we couldn't live together any more. She got a condo and I got the satisfaction that I had done right by her.
Though we are still separated, we are still friends and do many things together. Reconciliation? Maybe someday, but not today. Too much bitterness from both sides.
But at least I can hang my hat on the fact that I did right by her at the end, and that CERTAINLY helps alleviate my guilt for my mistakes.
I've been fortunate enough to make some good trades on Fuel Cell and some good rebuys. Last year I got back in in the mid-teens to mid 1.20s and sold out between 1.70 and .85. We have been living successfully off of the stock transactions, and hopefully, the real estate will come back soon.
(more to come)
It wasn't just Bottone. It was Bromley. Gersen. And John Rolls. I especially liked John Rolls. He seemed a curmudgeonly grandfather type. "By God, sonny! If you don't think we're doing anything, go sit in that corner and stay there until you learn something!"
That's a metaphor, you understand, but dang! Have you read these guys' pedigrees? Monsanto? ATT? Deutchebank? A general in the United States Army?
(more to come later, got business to handle)
This coincided with Rolls' purchase of 60,000 shares at $1.05. Please understand that I didn't put in ALL $180k right away. I did it over a period of time, buying, holding, adding. I also sold small positions along the way to pay for expenses. By the end of February, I had 195000 shares bought below $1.07. The March 2013 shareholder meeting was interesting. Remember, we had just announced a product error in our first quarter numbers and the stock sank back below $1. Shareholders were shocked and upset. I wasn't too upset - after all, I hadn't been hurt ALL THAT BADLY, but I certainly wanted some answers. I went to the shareholder meeting determined to ask some questions.
I got the answers I wanted. Anthony Rauseau - our chief engineer - was genuinely humbled and embarrassed by the recall. He explained the problem to me and assured me it wouldn't happen again. I was satisfied. You know one of the reasons why i liked this guy? He came into the meeting with dirt on his suit pants. That's right. Dirt on his suit pants. He had just come from the assembly line. That's the kind of guy I like - working on the line right up to the time he had to come to address shareholders.
Granted, a product recall is an embarrassing thing for a company to address before shareholders. But they addressed it and I was satisfied.
But there was more.
At the 2013 meeting, there was a ton of confidence in the air. We were building the Bridgeport facility! It would be operational by Winter! I went to the site! It was little more than a slab of concrete but by golly, there were people there working!
I went to the Danbury plant the night before the meeting. Same thing. People working! They wouldn't let me through the gates - policies and stuff - but by golly, they were working!
And when I got to the meeting, after the contrition about the recall, Bottone spoke with the UTMOST CONFIDENCE that fuel cells were about to change the world.
( More to come)
Thanks Shanty. I'm not too familiar with your writings. My time on YMB has been brief, especially the past few months.
It strikes me that the brevity of many of my posts - especially responses to PP, Z and Ymike, may give the appearance of "pumping" or "day trading". In fact I do swing trade, but I also have a core share that I will not trade unless they double quickly. Sometimes the strategy works. Sometimes it doesn't.
I got into FCEL in 2012. I had been fairly inactive in the stock market because of a three-year political campaign I was involved with. The campaign dealt with liquor privatization in Washington State. I have two commercial buildings and lost TWO 40-year "anchor" tenants because of it. The commercial loss was quite crippling - I lost about 60 percent of my "revenue" or roughly $7,000 a month in income. I was #$%$ and quite frankly, depressed.
Neither my wife or I had worked outside the home for about 14 years, and while we certainly have good resumes, the challenges associated with going back into the work force...
It took a toll on our marriage. In December of 2012, we separated.You get the picture.
Rather than dwelling on the loss, I turned my real estate over to a new broker and began re-focusing on the stock market. I prefer stocks to real estate. Real estate affects people. Stocks are just raw numbers where you don't have to deal with your tenants when you deliver them bad news.
I started focusing on energy. My hypothesis was that with Obama in office, and with conservatives coming around to "alternative energy" green was the place to be. I bought about 20,000 shares of FCEL at $1.07 and sold them from $1.25-$1.32 back in May/June of that year. I began adding more later that fall, and in December, my wife and I mortgaged the house for some working capital until the real estate woes subsided. 3.1 percent on a 30-year note? We made some repairs and stuck the rest - roughly $180,000 - into FCEL.
(More to come}
Good morning friends, and smiles to the haters:
It sure has been a rough two weeks. I had a family wedding in tahoe and fortunately kept far enough away to avoid being totally freaked out by the drop to $2.04. The rebound back to $2.12 was encouraging and hopefully this was nothing more than a shakeout. Of course we need sales and more good news. Heck, we need plug to report good numbers so we can run with the sector. Are we nervous? Sure. Anyone with skin in the game would be. Or maybe "anxious" is a better word. Still, I am optimistic. We have about one-third of our promised 30 mw filled and the second half of the year is underway. I remain confident about our management and trust that they can deliver on their promises.
The amount of traffic on this board and the increase in volume the past two years demonstrates a lot of interest in this company/sector. And when we look out at five and ten year charts, we are obviously still in the infancy of a sector recovery.
a couple of things:
1. We miss the intelligence/thoughtfulNess of posters such as dag which has been lost in troll spam. But there are other posters, such as shanty, who could add something to the discussion but instead have tried to become the "pumper police" without adding their own thoughts or positions. Why slam cc hen for a reasonable post while patting ppal on the back? This is unnecessary and counterproductive.
2. Regarding charts and pumpers: i u Der stand how ymike, z and p p hire can come off as pumper/traders. I understand that I may come off the same way. There are two types of people in cyberspace: those who play make-believe or act as cyber bullies to fluff their frail egos. And then there are those who can be totally honest because of the anonymity shield. I discuss a LOT of personal info here, simply because psychology is importantwhen trading and i want to be as transparent as possible.
I assure you I am the latter.
Bigs: 245,000 shares, current dca of $2.40.
Peace. Good luck.
Hi Chen! :) I read this report earlier but I like how u emphasize the closing points. Our little baby has the summertime blues but she will be back. We will see $3 again before the end of the year, I truly believe.
Shanty - there are no guarantee s in this life, and yes, my current dca has me concerned but I am not ready to hit the panic button. If we break below 190 I might be singing a different tune. Next stop after that? 165.
It ceertainly could drop into the mid 70s.. That was a ceiling for the stock for several weeks until we broke thru on the run to 111. I am currently short the stock. I think it holds great promise,but I think profits and revenu4es are a ways away.
it never hurts to take money off the table. Dry powder is always good. I too am concerned that we spiked up and came back as quickly as we did.
I am pretty excited about this. Lets say we do 70k pre market; that will probably translate to 7 million today? Given the lousy volume of the past few days and the slow trickle down that came with it, i'd call this a home run!
Maybe it will be a symbiotic thing. Upgrade for plug, order for fcel, profitability for cpst, and bldp makes record revenue...
Kinda interesting. Low volume in after hours. A nice run and a nice close. It will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings. This kind of spike up just goes to show how FCEL is ready to pop at any moment. Stay on the sideline and wait if you want, but this thing has plenty of upside for growth and trading.
I like the fact that we seem to be holding this $2.14 area. We are roughly 10 percent above the $1.90ish floor/ceilings that hit in December, January, March and May. I am disappointed we didn't hold the $2.35 range but if we can hold these levels as a springboard, we could still see $3 in sight with any kind of good news or improved metrics. I suspect we shall see an earnings release somewhere in early September. Here's hoping the pre-earnings run starts in July!
I'm sure this is an awesome shorting opportunity for guys like Jonas who have been short since $1.39...
But then again, margin calls have probably wrecked him for life.
I like how we sprung back toward $2.20 from $2.15 yesterday, and I also like how we sprung off $2.10 today, but I don't trust these support levels. I DO see $1.90 as a possibility, but I HAVE to believe we are near our low. I have been accumulating since $2.35 so I'm definitely underwater but I still have dry powder to add.
Patience. Summer slowdown. Market overall is down. But I believe in Chip. And I always roll with John Rolls.