Since there are approximately 100 million shares outstanding I just selected $50 million as a conservative income estimate upon approval yielding $.50/sh. Future dilution to 150 million shares adjusts income/sh to $.34.
Not the detailed analysis your looking for but a rough and I think very conservative guess might assume $50 million in income from these therapies. That's about $.50 income/share which places ZiIOP at around $10/sh with a 20x's P/E ratio.
I'm also a long time owner and share some of your frustrations. I thought their characterization process would have produced a series of marketed biologic similar and generic products. They would just wait for patent expirations and have their products ready to take signifigant market share. i still have confidence that they can continue to do this in the future. The current share price seems to accurately reflect the likelyhood of this happening. Long term I'm still hopeful for a much higher share price but short term we may have to endure some price decline.
Looked over the transcript of the meeting and from what I could understand it seemed encouraging but with no sign of any new revenues in the near future. Maybe this is why i there was such high institutional selling Friday afternoon.
I think that the only hope shareholders had was European approval without any additional testing requirements allowing immediate licensing and marketing. I actually thought this was a possibility and was the reason I felt like continuing rolling the dice even at .70/sh.
Now the only plausible outcome for a stock with negative stockholder equity seems to be bankruptcy. My guess is Burrill Ventures receives the future rights to Imagify along with whatever amount of their $5 million loan remains as settlement for their bankruptcy claim.
I believe the Red Sox will never lose another game and tomorrow complete peace will occur in the Middle East.
I thought it would have been understood that my previous post about the jeopardy of an "at risk" marketing of a generic was predicated by FDA approval.
Your enthusiasm is way too optimistic. All profits from an "at risk" marketing of a generic are subject to forfeiture plus possibly a substantial penalty if the Supreme Court upholds Teva"s appeal in the fall session. Justice Robert's statement even included mentioning that Teva has a likelihood of prevailing in the appeals process.
I had to Google "certiorai" to get a definition. Since you actually used it in a sentence I would assume you have much more legal knowledge than I do. Why is agreeing to hear the appeal a guarantee of the appeal being upheld? My understanding is that the only definite conclusion is that there were at least five SJC judges who decided the appeal raised a large enough legal principal that it deserved a hearing by them.
Today the US Patent office turned down Teva's request to extend Copaxane's patent beyond May 2014 to Sept. 2015. If the patent office doesn't accept Teva's patent continuation claims why would the Supreme Court overrule them?
Probably an appealing buyout candidate by one their partners, Novartis/Sandoz and Baxter, or even Teva.
If the Supreme Court decides tomorrow, 3/28, to hear Teva's appeal of the previous decision to invalidate some of their Copaxone patents I'd be surprised. Teva would have to make a very compelling argument that the lower court's decision was a mistake. If the appeal is rejected the next hurdle certainly is FDA approval. The FDA accepted MNTA's characterization process for producing generics in the Lovenex decision as yielding an approvable duplicate my guess is that their generic Copaxane would be as well.