As much as I an optimistic about the prospects of their current science I still have memories of the shock when Pali testing was abandoned and the stock plummeted. There had been just as great a build up of expectations preceding this, accompanied by significant shorting advocates who were resoundingly proved correct. There are huge expectations of success built into the current stock price.
My decent sized position in ZIOP has grown in the last 10 months to be by far my single largest holding. I remain optimistic with memories of Pali creating apprehension.
I believe the expression "rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic" might explain the volume. Your final sentence probably expressed the prevailing sentiment of most people.
Since there are approximately 100 million shares outstanding I just selected $50 million as a conservative income estimate upon approval yielding $.50/sh. Future dilution to 150 million shares adjusts income/sh to $.34.
Not the detailed analysis your looking for but a rough and I think very conservative guess might assume $50 million in income from these therapies. That's about $.50 income/share which places ZiIOP at around $10/sh with a 20x's P/E ratio.
I'm also a long time owner and share some of your frustrations. I thought their characterization process would have produced a series of marketed biologic similar and generic products. They would just wait for patent expirations and have their products ready to take signifigant market share. i still have confidence that they can continue to do this in the future. The current share price seems to accurately reflect the likelyhood of this happening. Long term I'm still hopeful for a much higher share price but short term we may have to endure some price decline.
Looked over the transcript of the meeting and from what I could understand it seemed encouraging but with no sign of any new revenues in the near future. Maybe this is why i there was such high institutional selling Friday afternoon.
I think that the only hope shareholders had was European approval without any additional testing requirements allowing immediate licensing and marketing. I actually thought this was a possibility and was the reason I felt like continuing rolling the dice even at .70/sh.
Now the only plausible outcome for a stock with negative stockholder equity seems to be bankruptcy. My guess is Burrill Ventures receives the future rights to Imagify along with whatever amount of their $5 million loan remains as settlement for their bankruptcy claim.