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Western Refining, Inc. Message Board

doogle60 344 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 24, 2014 12:13 PM Member since: Oct 8, 1999
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  • doogle60 doogle60 Jul 24, 2014 12:13 PM Flag

    Well, I have been at this game a long time...Fortunately I win much more than I lose..I continue to learn each and every day and consider myself humble..Just one thing I have learned is to completely ignore all the "experts" on CNBC, The fast Money gang, Seeking AlPHA, The Motley Fool, Zacks, Analysts, etc....I can not tell you how often in my trading career these "experts" have been dead wrong..They are really mostly just a bunch of self appointed arrogant experts and especially Monday Morning Quarterbacks. Sure, ALJ has its pressures and yes, they have taken down their estimates...But what these people look at is just plain vanilla - they are like horses with blinders on and don't look out into the future. First of all there are only X amount of refiners left in the US.. Nobody is going to build more because of the huge expense and regulations.! You can't do anything without the refiners! Secondly, ALJ share price is WAY DOWN from where is was not so long ago..Much of the bad news is built in already! I have a ton of ALJ and have followed this company very closely for the last several years. They have a management team that is savvy and has done a lot to improve the last several quarters.....So let the experts say what they like...I am on the other side of the coin and see ALJ as a decent risk vs reward...D

  • Reply to

    I am OUT!

    by mypitrules Jun 26, 2014 7:49 PM
    doogle60 doogle60 Jun 27, 2014 9:55 AM Flag

    I am not leaving....I know that hogs get slaughtered....I got some at the 15 area and think this is a good mid term play....Will sell when it gets to the 20's....I see it as very undervalued....D

  • doogle60 doogle60 Jun 26, 2014 2:56 PM Flag

    relax...Just slowly accumulate and be patient! This is a slowly becoming a much better risk vs reward but this is not a quick buck play...My suggestion is accumulate and wait 1-3 years......I just added more at 3.50 and have no problem at all with it.....D

  • Reply to

    Tomorrow's storage numbers

    by neiljneil Jun 18, 2014 10:29 AM
    doogle60 doogle60 Jun 18, 2014 3:18 PM Flag

    Good point....I confess I overlook that detail and it is important..Thanks D

  • Reply to


    by chicosan3 Jun 13, 2014 3:28 PM
    doogle60 doogle60 Jun 17, 2014 3:39 PM Flag

    Only problem is this "loser" can buy and sell a guy like you in a New York second....Dream on Chico....you are for certain a know it all....A jack of all trades who doesn't know jack.....

  • Reply to


    by chicosan3 Jun 13, 2014 3:28 PM
    doogle60 doogle60 Jun 17, 2014 3:22 PM Flag

    Ok...Good for you..You fought me....LOLOL..

  • Reply to

    XCO management is outdoing UPL...

    by neiljneil Jun 9, 2014 1:09 PM
    doogle60 doogle60 Jun 9, 2014 1:59 PM Flag

    Both are solid companies....Just one point....I think Mike Watford is one of the best in the business....So I give UPL's management team higher marks...Both companies have high upside potential...I see UPL in the 40's sooner than later.....D

  • Reply to

    Low going lower

    by eighteverything Jun 3, 2014 2:54 PM
    doogle60 doogle60 Jun 3, 2014 4:30 PM Flag

    Just if you want to switch gears and want to take a chance look at OPK- I made a ton of money with Dr. Frost when I owned IVX and he sold it to TEVA.. Also, AGEN might be a good risk vs reward....Both are 1-3 year plays, probably the longer the better! D

  • Reply to

    Someone snatching up September $10 call options

    by rmjjensen May 29, 2014 2:44 PM
    doogle60 doogle60 May 29, 2014 3:13 PM Flag

    It is just a matter of time before they begin to export this ...Does anyone think for a second that these companies are spending BILLIONS to build these ports with the expectation that NG is going to sell at 5! Yes, it will take 1-3 years, but this is a sort that will continue to improve over time......JMHO D

  • Reply to

    NO CEO

    by artsbest May 27, 2014 12:37 PM
    doogle60 doogle60 May 28, 2014 12:45 PM Flag

    You are correct...And to be totally objective about it, the Conf calls ever since D. Miller left have been much clearer, to the point, easier to decipher, and positive......Its not as if bringing in a CEO is going to bang the stock to the moon...To be even more candid, I actually think this current team is doing a good job! JMHO D

  • Reply to


    by tnjjoe May 20, 2014 1:12 PM
    doogle60 doogle60 May 20, 2014 2:52 PM Flag

    Its almost impossible to buy any stock at its lowest low and sell at its highest high..Just have to pick a point that is of good value in your mind and go with your confidence and instinct....D

  • Reply to


    by tnjjoe May 20, 2014 1:12 PM
    doogle60 doogle60 May 20, 2014 2:32 PM Flag

    No only am I not going to sell one share, I have been accumulating at these levels...Best time to accumulate is when everyone is shaking and in fear.....It is true this is a risky bet, however the risk / reward down here in my opinion is very good..And in this game its always about risk vs. reward.. I would just slowly accumulate and hold on....I have been at this game a long time and fortunately have gained a lot of wealth..I am aware that a company like AGEN can go to 1.00 or 20.00..........I am of course betting it goes much higher than you see it today..But this is a game of patience...I am not after the quick buck.....Ignore all the noise and wait this one out...JMHO D

  • Reply to

    Follow 19

    by artsbest May 8, 2014 4:19 PM
    doogle60 doogle60 May 9, 2014 4:30 PM Flag

    Well, its ok....You have to be able to take some very bad days / weeks, along with the good..Its all part of it....I predict you will see UPL in the 40's by winter..As far as XCO goes, to be candid I expected it to have had more traction by now and it was a disappointment with the recent pull back....But I am not in this as you know for the short term...I think the company has a decent story, good value, and is a turn around play... JMHO D

  • Reply to

    it is shoulder season....

    by barc37000 May 9, 2014 1:01 PM
    doogle60 doogle60 May 9, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    Sorry....I don't agree.....Smart money parks itself into places well in advance....Dont think that a hot summer isn't good for NG....The inventories are still low, and lots of electricity to be used......In terms of NG not even close to 5 , do you think this is going to stay this way? I see it much higher for several reasons....But hey, if you are shorting UPL, selling, etc no problem for me....I think this stock/company is extremely well managed, and has a long way to go on the upside......In fact I am betting it will be in the 40's by winter......JMHO D

  • Reply to

    This sell off is stupid!

    by georgia_stock_investor May 9, 2014 11:35 AM
    doogle60 doogle60 May 9, 2014 2:01 PM Flag

    Well, I already own a ton of this...I could not resist...Added 2000 more shares at 8.82....I am in this for the long haul anyway.....Oil for my portfolio has been terrible yesterday and today...No problem, just another accumulation opportunity.....Not to mention the dividend.....That is often overlooked! D

  • Reply to

    what the heck

    by seadreams1956 Apr 11, 2014 3:05 PM
    doogle60 doogle60 Apr 17, 2014 12:42 PM Flag

    It will likely double or even triple in 6 months to 2 years- that is if they don't take it private before .......Just ignore all the garbage that is posted on the net including all those "experts" on CNBC, Motley Fool, and seeking AlPHA....Dont let them derail you....I can't tell you how many times over the years I made that huge mistake and I have learned from it! D

  • Reply to

    Most of the trades are 100 shares

    by oncsrox Apr 17, 2014 11:38 AM
    doogle60 doogle60 Apr 17, 2014 12:37 PM Flag

    Too many people don't have the stomach for the market....I have been at this game a long time and fortunately have done very well.....At these levels this company is a very good risk vs. reward.....The time to buy into most things is when everyone else is on the sidelines shaking with fear.. It is true that lately this so's share price has been destroyed...However, its one of those that you should be aware comes with huge risks. Its not like buying an Exxon or Att.......So with this one you buy at these levels because the downside risk is more limited. People also wont admit that it went from 3 to 5 very fast and that is a huge gain!! And then the ride down was also swift and painful...If you buy this and hang tight I believe you will be rewarded....But remember, the Elephants don't like to share with the ants and this is not an easy game..No such thing as easy money...JMHO D

  • Reply to

    its off to the races

    by barc37000 Apr 17, 2014 10:44 AM
    doogle60 doogle60 Apr 17, 2014 12:13 PM Flag

    Cant say I did not tell people on this board....UPL is a stock that would be in the 30's for those who ignore all the garbage posted and the huge garbage by some of the "experts" on CNBC....In fact, I see no reason why UPL can't be a $40 stock as we approach winter.... Just wait until the ports are completed...NG in this country is still dirt cheap compared to the rest of the world- inventory very low as the market is correcting this ...Mike Watford is as I have also said one of the best in the business......Just going to hold tight for next 1-2 years.....People forget that this was once a $50+ dollar stock...No , I am not suggesting we will see that level soon.. But mid 30's, sure and then I believe $40....D

  • Reply to

    PWE is getting jiggy

    by mrpev Apr 17, 2014 11:57 AM
    doogle60 doogle60 Apr 17, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    Your correct...For me, ( and I have a lot of PWE), its all just noise...Wont even consider selling one share until it gets north or 15......Even then I probably will only sell in bits and pieces... I am very patient and have been and will continue to wait it out.....JMHO...D

  • Reply to

    what the heck

    by seadreams1956 Apr 11, 2014 3:05 PM
    doogle60 doogle60 Apr 17, 2014 12:03 PM Flag

    Hey there sea dreams...Are you becoming a slight bit more comfortable? Of course XCO isn't going up in a straight line...But it is building 3 steps forward and one back...MY UPL is doing extremely well. Have a ton of it as well. Just wait until next winter and 2015-16 when the ports are completed....People are going to look back and finally figure out that Marks, Watsa, and WR are anything but stupid.....D

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