"The civilized world will eventually embargo oil from ISIS to starve out their source of ordinance funds."
Ignorance such as this must be called out for what it is.... complete ignorance... Perhaps the wiz could tell us who ISIS current oil customers are?.... what pipelines and tankers do they have access to? are they getting those electronic transfers into their bank accounts?
ISIS sells oil on the "black market" and by its very definition the black market is beyond the effect of sanctions and embargos.... which is exactly why its called the black market... and the black market will always exist because it creates a discount...
and lest we not forget that oil and cash are commodities.... which means they are fungible...
This guy is way out there with his fossilized ancient thinking... those that follow an idiot like this are lemmings waiting to dive off the cliff...
Here is an opinion that I got in an analyst report on KMI... declining Revenue... declining EPS and more downside than any other energy ticker of a similar market cap
and each of those statement are factual because its a fact that revs have declined... EPS has declined and is the only energy related $100 Billion mkt cap ticker that trades so close to its highs... but wiz wants you to swallow his amateur technical analysis and ignore professional analyst fundamental opinion
BTW... KMIs cash flow is not growing when you compare the combined KMI/KMP/EP to the stand alone KMI.... I pointed out that the comparisons in the last report used the combined #s for comparison in the revs and EPS but compared the stand alone KMI to the merged KMI on the cash flow..... apples and oranges folks
The day Goldman changes its official recommendation.... to enhance its own and its customers positions.... you will look like a bigger fool than the emperor in the streets dangling his stuff for all to see what a chump he is.... nothing stays at highs all the time... nothing never gets downgraded... its how the game is played... its Wall Street.... and the only real winners need to be on the right side of the trade... buy and hold can make money... profitable trades make you rich
You can mock my opinion.... however you cannot counter with an intelligent reply why an analyst would bring down their estimate to such a great extent... what is this professional seeing that an amateur like you dismisses?... all estimates have in fact been declining... I just happened to focus on one where we could see that a single analyst.... the first to update 2016.... made a large downward revision in their estimate
and BTW... it wasn't me who talked of the Goldman report... I commented on it... after the wiz himself brought it up in this very thread....linked it to the large 2016 downward revision....
and the report of Goldman's short interest was in fact made public by Goldman itself
IF Goldman has a short position they have a few bullets to fire.... neutral... hold...and sell... they will probably never issue a sell on this because of the fact they are a bed partners with Kinder but it is interesting that they are negative...
Neutral and sell could each result in a $2-$3 hit... then factor in that they are not the only downgrade that will hit.... you could have a few more that are worth $1-$1.50...
While $38 is an interesting point to initiate a position a little dry powder for 5-10% less is how you turn a homerun into a grand slam
Like Goldman or not recommending a stock while they build a short position is SOP...
Then they pull the rug.... Just as you like to be on the same side of the table as Kinder... I like being on the same side of the trade as Goldman Sachs
and in my Boot Camp class on Wednesday nights there is a pretty high ranking Goldman guy in it.... j_wishfella from Cedarhurst LI......we are pretty good buds....... so lets just say that there has in fact been a birdie chirpin in my ear
Don't you ever ask yourself.... why are analyst estimates declining... which analysts are reducing their estimates?.... how can you ignore it?.... it has a direct effect on valuation... I pointed out a single analyst estimate cut had a 5 cent affect... 1 of 10 analysts covering 2016 cut the 2016 estimate and the estimate went from $.99 to $.94... its significant.... 9 other analysts will weigh in sooner or later... they cut estimates by the same amount and you will be staring at less than $.50 EPS shr in 2016... that's less than $1 bil in profit on a company that has a mkt cap of close to $100 Billion... a P/E of 100+... current P/E is an outrageous 52... something is gonna give.... IF it corrects to a ridiculous P/E of 75 on 2016 earnings this will lose $10/share... but hey.... you will get $2 in dividends... then just for a minute consider what the shr price drops to if the P/E goes to 25
Its been weeks since I begged you shills to get this over $43 again.... looks less and less likely.... tell me again about that KMI $50 fantasy... you remember... when yall thought my back was to the wall
when in denial of facts.... give a thumbs down.... don't take action to preserve capital ;)
It would be nice if ya'll refuted the factual basis.... or better still tell me again why declining estimates don't matter.... is that all part of that KMI $50 fantasy?
good golly miss molly.... how'd yall not call me on that... I was thinkin 5 cents on a dollar... 1/20..... its a 5% downward revision.... not 20%.... but still VERY significant
and its that 1 of 10 analysts having that 5 cent affect that is the true issue... tell me guys... what happens if the other 9 analysts cut by that 50 cents?
Whats the P/E gonna be???? 100?????? or more...
hey don't worry the only thing that matters is an increasing dividend... even if that divi becomes 4+Xs EPS ;)
I wonder if the IRS is good wit dat in a C Corp?
But what's a 20% downward revision?
I know I'm a DMF.... but any of you shills know which analyst trimmed their projection to $.94... how much does that single analyst have to cut when he is one of ten to get.... a nickel... a 20% reduction in the total estimate...
simple math says that when an analyst is 1 of 10 and the average comes down 5 cents... that analyst had to lower their opinion by 50 cents
others to follow
so when was the frontal lobotomy performed?.... hyping shill nonsense dose not help one iota and you look so foolish one cant begin to measure it.... companies are not bought out at 100% + premium
They read everything with a cheerleaders set of blinders on... which is why I so enjoy the ignorance of their thumbs down... I may rant... rave etc........
But I'm spot on with this.... posted earlier today that this would pop today.... Have revised my next short point to the $43.15 range depending on the bids
I look at what happened in nat gas last week and can only conclude that it will not go significantly lower than the $2.50 where it was prior to last week.... and this is a change in my thinking because I had it going to $2.00
And I don't mind being on the opposite side of the short play because I usually love the short side of things... however I do my own research and believe in the long play here whole heartedly.... better to be a little early on any position and scale in.... just as its wise to exit positions early....
and when I exit in the high teens I will be booking a tidy lil profit.... and as said the other day... any profit is a good profit
actually last year was 60 and last year was at a prolific pace... so they are out doing themselves by 25%... as the rig count continues to drop
You need to be cautious when you state facts like that because most on these boards are in denial when the facts are shoved down their throats
You buy CHK at these prices
Will buy another 1K at about $13.85.... and IF I get the opportunity $40-$.50 cents lower again
I can buy 1000s..... and scaling will ensure a good average (I do the same on the short side)
This is an opportunity
those are their projections... however they had to mark to market he value of their reserves as of 3/31/15.... which is the reason for their massive write-down...
We know that oil is up 20-25% from the 3/31 price so the write-down is already dated..... gas is about par
in say 2Qs of oil and gas are significantly above their 3/31 value they can revalue their reserves to the market again and have a significant gain to the EPS
I know you know me from the KMI bd and I know you know we both know I'm insane.... but I can call these things and CHK is a screaming buy
The write off was based on $45 bbl oil.... and$2.50 as.... Oil is up over 25% since the #s were figured to value their reserves....
and Q2 will have significant oil revenue pop.. so you buy when their is blood in the streets
aren't you the same guy who called me a DMF for pointing out the $1 Billion revenue miss.... the $150+ million in declining Q1 EPS.... the declining analyst estimates for revenue and EPS...
I'm a DMF for seeing these things with my own eyes.... yet when analysts point it out you jump on board....
My call on this was spot on.... was insanely ranting about a top at about $44.65..... it traded all the way to $44.71.... I missed by a whole 1/10 of 1%... that's .001
That being said I think this will have a little pop... You go nuts to the wall short.... or at the very least hedge your position by going short against he box.... there is no upside when estimates are in decline.... there is no significant upside when you are staring at a $150 mil charge on the Euro debacle..... the only possible catalyst is Q2 EPS... which is 2 1/2 months out
There remains no interest charge to go short KMI which means that it is cheaper to go short than it is to hedge with puts