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Enterprise Products Partners L.P. Message Board

doogoo1 277 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 28, 2015 2:08 PM Member since: Oct 12, 2001
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  • So the Saudi's sent ground troops into Yemen.... on Monday.... and we learned of it today...

    Lets consider what a military action entails... first you have to mobilize... then you move... so lets recount events in SA with oil and the markets in perspective...

    Oil moved down sharply last Friday..... hmmmmm could the Saudi's be mobilizing.... OK I get you don't let this get out they are our ally (cough cough cough... as they attempt to destroy US fossil fuel production).... but powerful people had to know... (cough... cough... cough think GS).... were they buying oil and oil stocks on the low?... as oil and the markets crashed??????

    Ok... its Monday morning now... oil drops like a rock... along with the markets.... but both miraculously bounce hard...... people had to know the Saudi's had moved on Yemen.... but not the public

    So the markets stabilize over the next few days... oil does fine on Wednesday.... and rockets up on Thursday.... Friday morning we wake up and buried deep in the news is the Saudis having sent ground troops into Yemen becomes public knowledge.... oil rallies further

    You know that this "invasion" was known to select a select few... who were able to cover and reverse oil shorts at the lows... and steal money on the big pop

    The question is why didn't the State Department or the Pentagon have news briefings on all the cable networks informing the public of what is in reality war on the Arabian Peninsula ?

    Is this one of those bumps in the road at the expense of small investors?

    This is not conspiracy theory... its lining up known facts

  • And the we learn today that Saudi Arabia has troops on the ground in Yemen.... geopolitical risk.... terrorism.... and it is EXPENSIVE... when they have massive financial concerns

    that's the #1 catalyst in oil prices and of course the real news isn't in the publics hands until oil has moved 12+%
    ==============================
    Follow the commodities..... we will soon see something break... and that break will something policy wise in SA that causes oil to rocket upwards.... the Saudi's are under financial pressure just as they are beginning to have significant maintenance issues... ticking off their populous at this time could be ugly on the front page... and a blessing for energy investors in the financial section
    =================================

    I'm so off base

  • doogoo1 doogoo1 Aug 28, 2015 11:37 AM Flag

    Words have meaning.... start to take them for their actual meaning... rather than the meaning you have inferred

    No one called you a coward.... but I will say that you are not the seasoned investor as you say you are when you do not use all the tools in the toolbox that an investor has available...

    My conclusion... fear or ignorance (remember ignorance is a disease that is easily curable) of the tools an investor has at their disposal

    IF you believe that the markets... KMI or anything else is going down... or cannot appreciate for that matter... and you refuse to use shorting....puts... calls (and writing those options) then your repeated rhetoric is empty BS.... your refusal is actually a disservice to your family as you would rather let inflation destroy the value of your money than to put your "insight" to work using the tools available to make money... (I agree that most margin use is not desirable)

    A long stock position is nothing more than a strategy.... which is no different than a short position...

    It is simply a version of the question... which came first... the chicken or the egg.... LIKE IT MATTERS

    Remember people... its been said I have a closed mind.... whose mind and opinions are closed to the many options that exist

    BTW... MLK Jr was inspirational on many things.... but I loathe his infidelity.... and womanizing...

    Does that mean I have no right to quote him?

    Should I make a list of inspirational quotes made by persons that had many characteristics I loathe?....

    Open your mind man...

    you getting this "logic"

  • I do not loathe the quote... I loathe the socialist FDR...

    Beyond all his social tinkering I loathe him for Pearl Harbor... It should be obvious by now that I am the child of the WWII generation....

    and I spent far too much time talking with WWII Navy vets who could spell out a compelling case on how FDR knew the attack was imminent and allowed it to happen so that he would have his "excuse" for entry to the war... and entry into a war with Germany to aid Churchill

    Rather than allow all those lives (and ships) to be lost had he grew a set that had some hair on them he would have said we have to do this because it was the right thing to do... Hey IF Obama let something like that happen today would there be protests in the streets with the slogan "Navy Lives Matter"?

    Do I need to go back to when you called me a 20 something punk.... I doubt there is one alive today that could reference the above in that manner

  • Has this been my assessment over and over and as recently as last night...
    --------------------------------------
    But that does not mean that my mantra over the last 3 weeks of sector rotation to energy has changed..:: I will pound the table again and again...: the sector will be the bright spot in a very difficult market.... If you missed that in my posts than maybe English as a second if not first language is a course you should be interested in
    -----------------------------------------

    But... Wiz used to get all the thumbs up... me all the thumbs down

    the only constant is I continue to pay this like a fine Stradivarius

    Who you gonna put you faith in.... in what I will agree is insane rhetoric on both our parts?

  • Reply to

    Wiz... here's a short term trade I am liking....

    by doogoo1 Aug 27, 2015 3:59 PM
    doogoo1 doogoo1 Aug 28, 2015 9:57 AM Flag

    Hows that trade looking.... $1.73... + 8 cents... 5%

    From 3:00 yesterday to the open.... I know I'm clueless.... according to those who get giddy when they earn 5% in a year

  • doogoo1 doogoo1 Aug 28, 2015 9:53 AM Flag

    Here are some producer stats on CHKs NGLs... I posted these #s after CHKs EPS
    ---------------------------------------------
    Here are CHKs realized values

    Comparing Q2 15 vs Q2 14

    Oil bbl---- $51.21 ----- $97.49...... -47.5%
    NG (mcf)---- $0.97 ------ $2.76...... -65%
    NGL--------- $1.90 ------ $21.03.... -91% ....... (bbl oil equiv)
    ______________________________

    My point is realized NGL pricing cannot really get any lower so there will be no incentive for an EPD to move them after the net margin pushes them even lower for the shipper.. and from the producer standpoint I would burn them off before taking a net los on the shipment

    A huge portion of EPDs revs came from taking a margin on the movement of NGLs.... with the decline in the prices.... the net margin to an EPD has evaporated... the 40% drop in EPDs revenues is the result in the collapse in the prices depicted above..... so if those NGL #s drop by even another $.50 ( 25% further decline)... it does not even have a noticeable affect on EPDs #s on a sequential Q/Q basis

    EPD is at a point where they are generating the lions share of revenue from their volume capacity contracts... so baring defaults or renegotiating I believe their revs have bottomed

    The same is true for KMI but they do not generate as much as EPD in the NGL space

  • doogoo1 doogoo1 Aug 27, 2015 11:28 PM Flag

    While Im loathe to quote FDR.... "There is nothing to fear.... But fear itself"

    Thats been part of my mantra for my entire adult life.... Its why Im capeable of pulling on big boy pants and taking risk....

    Risk.... The market is full of it... And it appears that Im as good as or better than most is assessing risk.... Which I take a position and act on

    Fear.. Is what makes you incapable of playing the short side.... Grow a pair and assess risk and act on your very own conclusions

    Ill end the night on the thought that my posts remain both
    consistent and clear in thier thought process.... Your failure to comprehend that indicates issues that go beyond denial

  • doogoo1 doogoo1 Aug 27, 2015 6:20 PM Flag

    Gee wiz... You say Im talking in circles when it is you who cannot break from the dcf nonsense.... Should be clear by now I pay it no mind whatso ever....

    I base my valuation on revenue... Amongst other thing but DCF is not one of them...

    You have adopted a good deal of my mantra but key parts continue to escape you... Put on your big boy pants and make a decision and make a play by it... The only thing I sense in yor posts is fear

    Remember when others are fearful .... Get greedy and play the trends... IF you bothered to read the entirety of my posts today you would know I said straight out we will test the lows again..:

    But that does not mean that my mantra over the last 3 weeks of sector rotation to energy has changed..:: I will pound the table again and again...: the sector will be the bright spot in a very difficult market.... If you missed that in my posts than maybe English as a second if not first language is a course you should be interested in

    Buy some UGAZ... Its $1.65wtf can you lose on a thousand shares $300?

  • indicates shorts covering.... which will result in more short covering in the commodity... (notice that for a short I was willing to book profits before the bottom... I do this because those reversals are harsh butw-t-f do I know)

    Could easily move another 10% tomorrow.... which is why stocks moving lockstep in correlation with commodities is insanity...

    In 07 $140 oil was the result of futures traders.... $37.50 oil is no different..... we could start Q4 with oil above $50.... so the question is what does a sharp 20-30% increase in the price of oil do to energy stocks?

    Have I been pounding the table saying its all about the commodities.... watch the commodities....watch for capitulation?

    One thing Wiz and I agree on... the Street is full of criminals.... I remember back in the day when Obama was elected and the Pinkos said they were going to solve the problems in the energy futures markets.... guess that didn't work out as planned...

    How bout that Linn energy today?....

    Come on Wiz.... make fun of my "hubris" again

  • doogoo1 doogoo1 Aug 27, 2015 4:24 PM Flag

    DCF is made up... plain and simple... as I recall you told me DCF was increasing in an environment of revenue decreasing by $500 million... you were.... and still are focused on the made up DCF... while I keep my eye on silly metrics that are reported in SEC filings such as revenue

    Fact of the matter is revenue does not lie... inescapable truth.... come on... you have played stocks for decades... and place greater faith in "DCF" than actual revenue... ridiculous

    I can guarantee you... that IF the shysters tell you that DCF is increasing in an environment of massive revenue decline... that metric will be just fine in an environment of increasing revenue... as per the shysters

    Stop with the contradictions... understand all these people are #$%$... the only thing that matters is what they can get away with... and imaginary "DCF".... they can say is what ever they want it to be... they cannot lie about revenue... they lie about revs and they go to jail without passing go

    When your focus is on revs... as opposed to "DCF".. you do not have to give a single thought as to which shell the marble was under.

  • a few K UGAZ @ $1.65...

    might not even be a bad idea to accumulate it if it has some weakness over the next month but it has the type of move UWTI had this past week in it

    and remember folks... its a leveraged ETN.... it can go very wrong..... or pay your utility bill for 3 or 4 months

  • doogoo1 doogoo1 Aug 27, 2015 1:53 PM Flag

    I said where a real concern remains.... neutral on this particular equity until there is a better understanding of investors that the estimates make no sense... its not like I haven't spent a ton of time discussing the affect of downward revisions on the share price... and I remain very bullish on things like EPD.... Like I said... its not like NGLs can go any lower so there is no longer any affect that can have on EPDs revenue... I also said EPD is THE big winner in the Mexican swap policy announced earlier this month...

    NO one could predict when this past weeks events.... which were bound to happen would occur...
    and we will retest those lows... but I will stand by my previous statements... even when I was short... that you could have faith in KMIs value @ $36

    and its looking like the capitulation has happened in oil..

    Do you follow UWTI?

    I could also go into discussions that you would adore... the Saudi's are in deep krrap... they are going to cut social spending by $10 billion????? how do you think that's going to work out with so much of their population being low life Sunni's on the public dole..... think ISIS will have a field day?

    It would be worse than Obama wiping out Obama phones... Section 8 and the SNAP program in one fell swoop....

    Follow the commodities..... we will soon see something break... and that break will something policy wise in SA that causes oil to rocket upwards.... the Saudi's are under financial pressure just as they are beginning to have significant maintenance issues... ticking off their populous at this time could be ugly on the front page... and a blessing for energy investors in the financial section

  • For all your posts... never not once have you taken valuation into the equation...

    You never seem to understand revenue and its affect on valuation and ability to meet obligations... always obsessed with nonsense like DCF (which is a made up #)... & divi growth...

    I have said it three ways to Sunday in different posts.... revenue has bottomed + or - 3%...

    The only revenue question that remains on the table is the analyst estimates... because the 2015 est does not meet up with Q1 & 2 actual + Q3 & 4 estimates

    Updated downward revisions in the 2015 est to meet up with the Q3 & 4 estimates remains my only concern...

    But mark my words... after those #s are lined up... the next thing that happens is revenue exceeds estimates.... and then watch what happens

    Follow the script... its the same over and over... that's why you trade positions that are screaming something real at you

  • Reply to

    RK a buyer of KMI? or seller?

    by thewzrdaz Aug 27, 2015 8:20 AM
    doogoo1 doogoo1 Aug 27, 2015 9:52 AM Flag

    Really you dont believe that?.... After all the hyping at highs and trashing at lows that statement lacks a level of believability

  • Reply to

    RK a buyer of KMI? or seller?

    by thewzrdaz Aug 27, 2015 8:20 AM
    doogoo1 doogoo1 Aug 27, 2015 9:46 AM Flag

    Kool-aid sipping causes LT brain damage...... Just another sucient observation

    Play the trade.... If that wasnt obvious over the past week U dont know what was

  • Reply to

    RK a buyer of KMI? or seller?

    by thewzrdaz Aug 27, 2015 8:20 AM
    doogoo1 doogoo1 Aug 27, 2015 9:24 AM Flag

    Wiz.... Its amuzing to say the least that over the past month you have used arguments to trash KMI that you fought ferousiously against in the past....

    A couple of weeks ago I used some analogies about the man behind the curtain when discussing GS... That analogy seems prudent relative to your posts of late...

    I do not think for a second that your posts are altruistic in nature.... You dont want to short but want a lower re-entry

    Arguments gain and lose merit with valuation..... Its no different than risk....

    I cant fathom how you fought against thes arguments at higher vals and adopt them at lower vals

    Oil has a 4 handle again.... While the greater market is still rather OP the energy sector offers compelling valuations.... The crooks on the Street will profit off a massive sector rebound just as theywere way ahead on the short side on the way down

  • Reply to

    Where is that Wallpack123 imbicile....

    by doogoo1 Aug 21, 2015 12:29 PM
    doogoo1 doogoo1 Aug 21, 2015 1:49 PM Flag

    so give us your imbecilic take on why refiners should purchase US crude for more than the Saudi's are willing to sell them Brent for...

    Of course there is the cost of converting the refineries too but we need to hear why one would pay more for raw product that costs more to refine

    Just clarify your position.... which is so way out in left field its beyond imbecilic

    Give us all a reason why someone would buy a company like CHK for more than a 30% premium to equity

  • earlier this week there was a discussion on why refineries buy Brent...

    Well in the news is Canada's largest refinery is switching from Bakken Crude to Brent because the Saudi's are selling them the crude cheaper than the Bakken Crude....

    and not for nuthin... Bakken usually trades at a discount to WTI so that means the Saudi discount is huge

    Just as the Saudi's are selling to the Canadians ( who have plenty of their own oil)...... they are doing the same here...

    and Obama's agenda is to destroy the fossil fuel energy production in the US.... he allows the Saudi's to engage in unfair trade policies... destroying an industry...

    IR there was ever the need for a new administration with a change in direction it is now

  • Reply to

    Nelson writes another KMI hit piece...

    by thewzrdaz Aug 20, 2015 12:07 AM
    doogoo1 doogoo1 Aug 20, 2015 11:17 AM Flag

    I'll give the old fossil credit where credit is due... adapting to technology...

    I have the same issues... the fingers of a "man" are far to big to use one of those things

EPD
28.62+0.16(+0.56%)Aug 28 4:02 PMEDT