This backwardation is only maybe for 1-2 months because a winter that is the coldest in maybe 20 years. By April it will be back to normal. Look at 2015 winter contracts. Imagine being able to buy your gas for 30% off in 2 years what it is today? This is quite abnormal and won't last long.
And its not like O&G companies are moving rigs over to natural gas because they know its not going to last. One major speed bump.
Liza, what are your thoughts on the reserves? I went back through the annual reports and the reserves can flucate a LOT. When oil is up, recoverable reserves seem to jump 30% or more and BPT may be worth over $90. When oil is down, this thing may be worth less than $40 like the Hedgeye guy says.
I do agree with the cost escalation though. People don't do their due diligence so no one can short this for four years on that logic. At these levels its an okay long for a few years yet.
How do you find that link? I went to their web site but can only find their meeting times and locations but not the actual agenda.
The people calling for $100 are nowhere to be found. I bought a little down there too and keep flipping it. Waiting for the next dividend announcement to be a slight bounce from $2. If not that one, then the next because maintenance spending should be done by then.
Okay I hit up the September SEC filings so hopefully I'll figure all this out on my own. Which is the important one?
AMENDMENT NO. 1 TO FORM S-3
or one of the two PROSPECTUS SUPPLEMENT?
When you talk about a hit to production are you talking about a significant drop from the current 12c/13c to below 10c? Or will it be more minor at first and hurt out production in the long term?
Thanks diodia2000, keep us informed. And the 96 wells are the new ones or is that part of the old ones? Personally I don't care about the new ones but I am afraid of any changes to the existing wells.
Yep. I tried to write to the "author" but got no response. Totally despicable to be giving computer generated advice.
Here is another thing to consider. IR told me that part of the reason why the dividend dropped was maintenance. He said that will continue into 1st quarter of 2014. So we may see another low dividend and then the dividend pops. Even if the shorts are right, if the stock holds up and the dividend pops up 1st or 2nd quarter then retail money will consider that a rising dividend and blow the shorts out of the water.
This is having huge movements so you can make money on both sides. But I would be very careful trying to pinpoint any specific range where this should be. Between natural gas and future dividend announcements this could go anywhere from $100 to $190 in the next six months. Not exactly stable :)
There are very few losers out there so the ones that people have are getting concentrated selling. Welcome to thin stocks with no institutional support. I'm a buyer and hoping come Jan 1st there are only reasons to buy and no reason to sell.